publications.iow_esm.marine_science_report/all_endnote.bib

@book{RN3096,
   title = {Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project},
   publisher = {Met Office Hadley Centre},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN1667,
   author = {1, IPCC AR4 Working Group},
   title = {Table TS.6},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Statute}
}

@article{RN1687,
   author = {(FMI), Baltic Sea ice data},
   title = {Maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea since 1720, MERI-Report Series by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)},
   journal = {EEA},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2837,
   author = {Aalto, Juha and Pirinen, Pentti and Jylhä, Kirsti},
   title = {New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {121},
   number = {8},
   pages = {3807-3823},
   abstract = {Abstract Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI_ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961–2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1699,
   author = {Aarup, T and Holt, N and Højerslev, N K},
   title = {Optical measurements in the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone. II. Water mass classification along the Jutland west coast from salinity and spectral irradiance measurements},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {16},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1343-1353},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(95)00076-3},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2048,
   author = {Aarvak, Tomas and Jostein ØIen, Ingar and Krasnov, Yuri V. and Gavrilo, Maria V. and Shavykin, Anatoly A.},
   title = {The European wintering population of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri reassessed},
   journal = {Bird Conservation International},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {337-343},
   abstract = {Prolonged declines in the number of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri wintering in Europe have raised concerns about the conservation status of the Western Palearctic population. Coordinated helicopter surveys of all known wintering areas in Norway and Russia and ground counts in the Baltic in 2009 found c.27,000 Steller’s Eiders, similar to numbers found during the last such survey in the mid-1990s. However, around 85% of the population now winters in Russia compared to 30–50% then. The reasons for this rapid shift in distribution are unknown but are likely linked to climate change. The continuing small population size, specialist feeding and restricted distribution of Steller’s Eider necessitate continued survey and research to track population changes and provide evidence for conservation management actions to safeguard the species.},
   ISSN = {0959-2709},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0959270912000251},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/european-wintering-population-of-stellers-eider-polysticta-stelleri-reassessed/BB0F64C14D07931010BB91EE12DD5374},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2504,
   author = {Aberle, N. and Malzahn, A. M. and Lewandowska, A. M. and Sommer, U.},
   title = {Some like it hot: the protozooplankton-copepod link in a warming ocean},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {519},
   pages = {103-113},
   note = {10.3354/meps11081},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: The combined effects of warming and densities of overwintering copepods on the spring succession of Baltic Sea plankton were investigated using indoor mesocosms. Three zooplankton densities (1.5, 4 and 10 copepods l<sup>-1</sup>) and 2 temperature levels (Δ0°C and Δ6°C; 0°C and 6°C above present-day temperatures in the Kiel Bight) were chosen. Both the timing and the duration of the protozooplankton (PZP) bloom were significantly affected by temperature, but not by copepod density. In contrast, the bloom intensity of PZP was highly affected by the factors temperature and copepod density and their interaction. This suggests that under elevated temperature conditions PZP grows faster, but, at the same time, is subject to higher top-down control by copepods. At low temperatures and low copepod densities, PZP, in turn, fully escaped from copepod predation. Further changes in copepod overwintering densities resulted in a strong suppression of ciliates, of which small-sized ciliates (<30 µm) were especially vulnerable to copepod predation, while other PZP size classes remained unaffected. In conclusion, results point at a pivotal regulating role of overwintering copepods under future warming conditions. Further, warming was shown to cause a distinct match between phytoplankton and PZP, thus strengthening trophic pathways through PZP. Our findings are discussed in the context of the ‘trophic link-sink’ debate by considering potential alterations in the flux of matter and energy up the food web.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11081},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v519/p103-113/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2888,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Su, Fengge and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {112},
   pages = {D24114},
   abstract = {Since the 1930s, combined streamflow from the largest Eurasian rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing. For many of these rivers, an increase in annual streamflow volume has been accompanied by a shift in seasonality (e.g., earlier snowmelt runoff in the spring). These changes in annual and seasonal streamflow may be due to direct effects of climate change (e.g., increased precipitation, or changes in snow accumulation and ablation patterns), indirect effects of climate change (e.g., changes in permafrost), or human effects (e.g., storage and release of river runoff in reservoirs). We develop and describe a method to estimate the potential contributions of artificial reservoirs to long-term changes in annual and seasonal streamflow between 1937 and 1998. Reservoir effects on downstream flow are simulated using a reservoir routing model coupled off-line to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model for the Lena, Yenisei and Ob' river basins. The effects of reservoirs on basin average evaporation are also represented. We perform trend analysis on long-term (≥30 years) time series of seasonal and annual streamflow and isolate the effects of reservoirs. Although reservoirs have had little effect on trends in annual discharge from the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins, we conclude that they are responsible for many of the seasonal changes that have been observed. For the Lena, reservoirs account for up to 80% and 30% of the observed winter and spring trends, respectively. For the Yenisei, reservoirs account for up to 100%, 40%, and 60% to 100% of the observed winter, spring, and late summer to early fall trends, respectively. For the Ob', reservoirs may account for more than 70% of the observed trends during the months of January to March. A result of this study is a set of reconstructed streamflow at the outlets of the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins which can be used in subsequent studies to improve the understanding of climate change effects on runoff generation in the Eurasian Arctic.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2889,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Application of New Precipitation and Reconstructed Streamflow Products to Streamflow Trend Attribution in Northern Eurasia},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {21},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1807-1828},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1535.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/8/2007jcli1535.1.xml},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1893,
   author = {Ahlgren, Joakim and Grimvall, Anders and Omstedt, Anders and Rolff, Carl and Wikner, Johan},
   title = {Temperature, DOC level and basin interactions explain the declining oxygen concentrations in the Bothnian Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {170},
   pages = {22-30},
   keywords = {Oxygen depletion
Hypoxia
Bothnian Sea
Baltic Sea
Climatic changes
Modelling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.12.010},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796316301877},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN1941,
   author = {Ahtiainen, Heini and Öhman, Marcus C.},
   title = {Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea : Valuation of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea},
   publisher = {Nordisk Ministerråd},
   address = {Copenhagen},
   series = {TemaNord},
   note = {2015-03-11T15:55:21.971+01:00
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/FULLTEXT02.pdf},
   abstract = {This report presents an overview of the ecosystem services and associated benefits provided by the Baltic Sea, including information on the approaches of assessing and valuing ecosystem services being applied in the Baltic Sea region. It also identifies the main challenges in ecosystem service assessments in the Baltic Sea, and outlines the way forward in applying assessment tools in regional and national policies.Valuation of the benefits provided by ecosystem services can aid in designing more efficient policies for the protection of the Baltic Sea. The existing studies on the value of improved marine environment are useful in assessing the importance and value of some marine ecosystem services, but further work is still needed on describing ecosystem services and their interactions, and evaluating how policy changes affect these services and human well-being.},
   keywords = {Environmental Sciences
Miljövetenskap},
   pages = {74},
   ISBN = {978-92-893-3861-5 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3863-9 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3862-2 (ISBN)
09086692 (ISSN)},
   DOI = {10.6027/TN2014-563
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/PREVIEW01.jpg},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:norden:org:diva-3536},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN3156,
   author = {Akhtar, Naveed and Geyer, Beate and Rockel, Burkhardt and Sommer, Philipp S. and Schrum, Corinna},
   title = {Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alter wind climate and reduce future power generation potentials},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {11},
   number = {1},
   pages = {11826},
   abstract = {The European Union has set ambitious CO2 reduction targets, stimulating renewable energy production and accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy in northern European waters, mainly the North Sea. With increasing size and clustering, offshore wind farms (OWFs) wake effects, which alter wind conditions and decrease the power generation efficiency of wind farms downwind become more important. We use a high-resolution regional climate model with implemented wind farm parameterizations to explore offshore wind energy production limits in the North Sea. We simulate near future wind farm scenarios considering existing and planned OWFs in the North Sea and assess power generation losses and wind variations due to wind farm wake. The annual mean wind speed deficit within a wind farm can reach 2–2.5 ms−1 depending on the wind farm geometry. The mean deficit, which decreases with distance, can extend 35–40 km downwind during prevailing southwesterly winds. Wind speed deficits are highest during spring (mainly March–April) and lowest during November–December. The large-size of wind farms and their proximity affect not only the performance of its downwind turbines but also that of neighboring downwind farms, reducing the capacity factor by 20% or more, which increases energy production costs and economic losses. We conclude that wind energy can be a limited resource in the North Sea. The limits and potentials for optimization need to be considered in climate mitigation strategies and cross-national optimization of offshore energy production plans are inevitable.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2505,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Karsten, Ulf and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Genotypic variation influences tolerance to warming and acidification of early life-stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) in a seasonally fluctuating environment},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {163},
   number = {1},
   pages = {14},
   abstract = {Global change exposes brown algal Fucus vesiculosus populations to increasing temperature and pCO2, which may threaten individuals, in particular the early life-stages. Genetic diversity of F. vesiculosus populations is low in the Baltic compared to Atlantic populations. This might jeopardise their potential for adaptation to environmental changes. Here, we report on the responses of early life-stage F. vesiculosus to warming and acidification in a near-natural scenario maintaining natural and seasonal variation (spring 2013–2014) of the Kiel Fjord in the Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27ʹN, 10°11ʹW). We assessed how stress sensitivity differed among sibling groups and how genetic diversity of germling populations affected their stress tolerance. Warming increased growth rates of Fucus germlings in spring and in early summer, but led to higher photoinhibition in spring and decreased their survival in late summer. Acidification increased germlings’ growth in summer but otherwise showed much weaker effects than warming. During the colder seasons (autumn and winter), growth was slow while survival was high compared to spring and summer, all at ambient temperatures. A pronounced variation in stress response among genetically different sibling groups (full-sib families) suggests a genotypic basis for this variation and thus a potential for adaptation for F. vesiculosus populations to future conditions. Corroborating this, survival in response to warming in populations with higher diversity was better than the mean survival of single sibling groups. We conclude that impacts on early life-stages depend on the combination of stressors and season and that genetic variation is crucial for the tolerance to global change stress.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2506,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Winde, Vera and Lenz, Mark and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Buffering and Amplifying Interactions among OAW (Ocean Acidification & Warming) and Nutrient Enrichment on Early Life-Stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Their Carry Over Effects to Hypoxia Impact},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {11},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e0152948},
   abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are occurring globally. Additionally, at a more local scale the spreading of hypoxic conditions is promoted by eutrophication and warming. In the semi-enclosed brackish Baltic Sea, occasional upwelling in late summer and autumn may expose even shallow-water communities including the macroalga Fucus vesiculosus to particularly acidified, nutrient-rich and oxygen-poor water bodies. During summer 2014 (July–September) sibling groups of early life-stage F. vesiculosus were exposed to OAW in the presence and absence of enhanced nutrient levels and, subsequently to a single upwelling event in a near-natural scenario which included all environmental fluctuations in the Kiel Fjord, southwestern Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27 ´N, 10°11 ´W). We strove to elucidate the single and combined impacts of these potential stressors, and how stress sensitivity varies among genetically different sibling groups. Enhanced by a circumstantial natural heat wave, warming and acidification increased mortalities and reduced growth in F. vesiculosus germlings. This impact, however, was mitigated by enhanced nutrient conditions. Survival under OAW conditions strongly varied among sibling groups hinting at a substantial adaptive potential of the natural Fucus populations in the Western Baltic. A three-day experimental upwelling caused severe mortality of Fucus germlings, which was substantially more severe in those sibling groups which previously had been exposed to OAW. Our results show that global (OAW), regional (nutrient enrichment) and local pressures (upwelling), both alone and co-occurring may have synergistic and antagonistic effects on survival and/or growth of Fucus germlings. This result emphasizes the need to consider combined stress effects.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3258,
   author = {Aldridge, David W. and Payne, Barry S. and Miller, Andrew C.},
   title = {Oxygen consumption, nitrogenous excretion, and filtration rates of Dreissena polymorpha at acclimation temperatures between 20 and 32 °C},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {52},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1761-1767},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f95-768},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-768 %X Mussels were acclimated to each of four experimental temperatures (20, 24, 28, and 32 °C) for 30 days. Mussels averaged 10.29 mg tissue dry weight. Oxygen consumption rates at 32 °C were 3.65 times larger than consumption rates at 20 °C (p < 0.01). Ammonia excretion rates at 32 °C were 4.9 times greater than those at 20 °C (p < 0.01). O:N ratios were >60 at 20 and 24 °C but declined (p < 0.01) at 28 and 32 °C to <40. Filtration rates, an estimate of feeding rates, were not significantly different at 20 and 24 °C (p > 0.50) but declined at 28 and 32 °C (p < 0.01). Filtration rates at 32 °C were only 27% of the rates at 20 °C. These results indicate that (i) the metabolic expenditure of Dreissena polymorpha rose 265% as the temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C, (ii) metabolism relied more heavily on lipids and carbohydrates at 20 and 24 °C while protein catabolism increased at 28 and 32 °C, and (iii) the potential feeding rates of D. polymorpha declined by 73% as temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C. Above 28 °C D. polymorpha was unable to match energy expenditures with concurrent food intake and forced to rely on stored fuels.},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1548,
   author = {Alheit, J and Möllmann, C and Dutz, Jörg and Kornilovs, G and Loewe, P and Mohrholz, V and Wasmund, N},
   title = {Synchronous ecological regime shifts in the central Baltic and the North Sea in the late 1980s},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {62},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1205-1215},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.04.024},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2432,
   author = {Alkama, Ramdane and Cescatti, Alessandro},
   title = {Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {351},
   number = {6273},
   pages = {600-604},
   abstract = {Forest loss affects climate not just because of the impacts it has on the carbon cycle, but also because of how it affects the fluxes of energy and water between the land and the atmosphere. Evaluating global impact is complicated because deforestation can produce different results in different climate zones, making it hard to determine large-scale trends rather than more local ones. Alkama and Cescatti conducted a global assessment of the biophysical effects of forest cover change. Forest loss amplifies diurnal temperature variations, increases mean and maximum air temperatures, and causes a significant amount of warming when compared to CO2 emission from land-use change.Science, this issue p. 600Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003–2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/351/6273/600.full.pdf},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2598,
   author = {Allen, M.R. and Dube, O.P. and Solecki, W. and Aragón-Durand, F. and Cramer, W. and Humphreys, S. and Kainuma, M. and Kala, J. and Mahowald, N. and Mulugetta, Y. and Perez, R. and Wairiu, M. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Framing and Context},
   booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and Péan, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-1/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3008,
   author = {Allen, R. J. and Norris, J. R. and Wild, M.},
   title = {Evaluation of multidecadal variability in CMIP5 surface solar radiation and inferred underestimation of aerosol direct effects over Europe, China, Japan, and India},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {118},
   number = {12},
   pages = {6311-6336},
   abstract = {Observations from the Global Energy Balance Archive indicate regional decreases in all sky surface solar radiation from ∼1950s to 1980s, followed by an increase during the 1990s. These periods are popularly called dimming and brightening, respectively. Removal of the radiative effects of cloud cover variability from all sky surface solar radiation results in a quantity called “clear sky proxy” radiation, in which multidecadal trends can be seen more distinctly, suggesting aerosol radiative forcing as a likely cause. Prior work has shown climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) generally underestimate the magnitude of these trends, particularly over China and India. Here we perform a similar analysis with 173 simulations from 42 climate models participating in the new CMIP5. Results show negligible improvement over CMIP3, as CMIP5 dimming trends over four regions—Europe, China, India, and Japan—are all underestimated. This bias is largest for both India and China, where the multimodel mean yields a decrease in clear sky proxy radiation of −1.3±0.3 and −1.2±0.2 W m−2decade−1, respectively, compared to observed decreases of −6.5±0.9 and −8.2±1.3 W m−2decade−1. Similar underestimation of the observed dimming over Japan exists, with the CMIP5 mean dimming ∼20% as large as observed. Moreover, not a single simulation reproduces the magnitude of the observed dimming trend for these three regions. Relative to dimming, CMIP5 models better simulate the observed brightening, but significant underestimation exists for both China and Japan. Overall, no individual model performs particularly well for all four regions. Model biases do not appear to be related to the use of prescribed versus prognostic aerosols or to aerosol indirect effects. However, models exhibit significant correlations between clear sky proxy radiation and several aerosol-related fields, most notably aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorption AOD. This suggests model underestimation of the observed trends is related to underestimation of aerosol direct radiative forcing and/or deficient aerosol emission inventories.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2599,
   author = {Allen, S. G.  and Ainley, D. G. and Page, G. W. and Ribic, C. A.},
   title = {The effect on distribution on harbor seal haul out patterns at Bolinas Lagoon, California},
   booktitle = {Fishery Bulletin},
   editor = {Richards, William J. and Collette, Bruce B. and Houde, Edward D. and Ingham, Merten C. and Lasker, Reuben and Malins, Donald C. and Pella, Jerome J. and Quast, Jay C. and Sindermann, Carl J. and Fukuyama, Mary S.},
   publisher = {National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA},
   address = {Seattle, WA, USA},
   volume = {82 (3)},
   pages = {493-500},
   year = {1984},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@phdthesis{RN3262,
   author = {Almqvist, Gustaf},
   title = {Round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea – Invasion Biology in practice},
   university = {Systemekologiska institutionen},
   note = {(biträdande)},
   type = {Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary},
   abstract = {Human mediated transfer of non-indigenous species is considered to be a major threat to global biodiversity. The Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), which has established populations in various regions in Eurasia and North-America, was first observed in Gulf of Gdańsk, Baltic Sea, in 1990. In this thesis the round goby is used as case study for assessing the invasion process of an alien species in to the Baltic Sea. Factors governing life history characteristics, traits that have enhanced the invasion, and ecological consequences for the Baltic Sea are assessed. Two diverging life history strategies of the round goby related to habitat were found: one to-wards early maturation and short population turnover time in sheltered areas, the other towards high growth rate and late maturation in exposed areas. Females produced two batches in average during the spawning season. Lengths of spawning season and annual fecundity of round gobies in Gulf of Gdańsk were in the same range as in the donor region. The species was found to compete with juvenile flounder for space and food resources, and probably also other native species are affected in coastal areas. Round goby comprised a main food source for cod and perch, forming a new energetic pathway between mussels and predatory fish. It is predicted that the species must produce more than one batch per season to sustain a viable population. Low temperature in the northern Baltic Sea is expected to hamper the devel-opment of new round goby populations, however, the global climate change might change this situation. In the southern Baltic Sea a shortage of optimal reproduction habitats is suggested to moderate the rate of spread. Although round goby in the Gulf of Gdańsk seems to have passed abundance maximum it is likely that the species will continue to be an important ecosystem component, at least in southern Baltic Sea, in the future.},
   keywords = {Round goby
Neogobius melanostomus
Apollonia melanostoma
non-indigenous fish
life history characteristics
predation
competition
Gulf of Gdańsk
Baltic Sea.
Ecology
Ekologi},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-7450},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN3050,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, E. and Edman, M. and Eilola, K. and Meier, H. E. M. and Sahlberg, J.},
   title = {Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {20},
   pages = {5753-5769},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5753-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/5753/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1690,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Hordoir, Robinson and Meier, H. E. Markus and Hall, Per O J},
   title = {Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {87},
   pages = {1-12},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.02.005},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1961,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Kuznetsov, Ivan and Hall, Per O. J. and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {144},
   pages = {127-141},
   abstract = {The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980–2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59×103t P year−1 and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60–150m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43×103t P year−1. For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19×103t P year−1. In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7×103t P year−1. The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period.},
   keywords = {Phosphorus release
Oxygen penetration depth
Eutrophication
Saltwater inflow
Biogeochemical modelling
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.11.007},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314003121},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3113,
   author = {Altieri, Andrew H. and Gedan, Keryn B.},
   title = {Climate change and dead zones},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {21},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1395-1406},
   abstract = {Abstract Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1964,
   author = {Andersen, Jesper H. and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J. and Dromph, Karsten and Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Josefson, Alf B. and Norkko, Alf and Villnäs, Anna and Murray, Ciarán},
   title = {Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biological Reviews},
   volume = {92},
   number = {1},
   pages = {135-149},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.},
   ISSN = {1464-7931},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12221},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12221},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3162,
   author = {Andersen, N. G. and Lundgren, B. and Neuenfeldt, S. and Beyer, J. E.},
   title = {Diel vertical interactions between Atlantic cod Gadus morhua and sprat Sprattus sprattus in a stratified water column},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {583},
   pages = {195-209},
   note = {10.3354/meps12319},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Information about species interactions at a spatial scale comparable to the perceptive abilities of the involved species is crucial for establishment of predictive food consumption models at the population level. Nevertheless, such information is sparse due to methodological constraints. We studied the diel vertical dynamics of species interactions between Atlantic cod <i>Gadus morhua</i> and its major clupeid prey, sprat <i>Sprattus sprattus</i>, at a location in the Bornholm Basin of the central Baltic Sea during late winter. This was accomplished by combining acoustic information on diel vertical fish distribution, time of ingestion of individual sprat estimated from cod stomach content data and observed vertical profiles of salinity, temperature and oxygen content. Predation by cod took place primarily at dusk and dawn during ascent and descent of sprat associated with school dissolution and formation, respectively. Cod resided close to the bottom outside these temporal predation windows. Sprat schools were located at the same depth as cod in the daylight hours, whereas at night dispersed sprat were situated higher in the water column. These vertical dynamics could be explained by fitness optimization using bioenergetics and trade-offs between temperature, oxygen saturation of the water and predation risk. This study forms a first step towards providing a mechanistic background for the predatory impact of cod at the basin scale and beyond.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v583/p195-209/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3222,
   author = {Andersen, S.M. and Teilmann, J. and Dietz, R. and Schmidt, N.M. and Miller, L.A.},
   title = {Behavioural responses of harbour seals to human-induced disturbances},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {22},
   number = {1},
   pages = {113-121},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT In Denmark, harbour seals, Phoca vitulina, were first protected in 1977, and since then a number of seal reserves have been established in Danish waters. The effectiveness of these reserves to prevent human-induced disturbances to the seal population have, however, not been evaluated. To evaluate this, experimental disturbances were conducted in one of the most important seal reserves in Denmark (Anholt seal reserve). Specifically, the behavioural responses (alert distance, flight initiation distance, flee distances and flight duration) of harbour seals to approaching pedestrians and boats were studied. The project was conducted during three periods related to the breeding cycle of harbour seals. In all periods, harbour seals were alerted by boats at significantly greater distances compared with pedestrians (560–850 m and 200–425 m, respectively). Similar differences in the flight initiation distances were observed, 510–830 m for boats and 165–260 m for pedestrians. In most cases seals were alerted and began to flee when the approaching boat was outside the reserve, whereas seals did not respond to approaching pedestrians until after they had entered the reserve. Harbour seals exhibited weaker and shorter-lasting responses during the breeding season. They were more reluctant to flee and returned to the haul-out site immediately after being disturbed, in some cases even during the disturbance. This seasonal tolerance is most likely attributed to a trade-off between fleeing and nursing during the breeding season, and hence not an indication of habituation. Based on the results of this study it is suggested that the reserve boundaries on land be placed at least 425 m from the haul-out area and the boundary at sea should extend to at least 850 m from the haul-out area in order to secure adequate year-round protection from disturbances. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1963,
   author = {Andersson, Agneta and Meier, H. E. Markus and Ripszam, Matyas and Rowe, Owen and Wikner, Johan and Haglund, Peter and Eilola, Kari and Legrand, Catherine and Figueroa, Daniela and Paczkowska, Joanna and Lindehoff, Elin and Tysklind, Mats and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {345-356},
   abstract = {Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3056,
   author = {Andersson, H. C.},
   title = {Stigande havsnivåer och ökad översvämningsrisk},
   institution = {Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,},
   number = {MSB 1243},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1962,
   author = {Andersson, Helén C.},
   title = {Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {54},
   number = {1},
   pages = {76-88},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN1566,
   author = {Andrén, Thomas and Björck, Svante and Andrén, Elinor and Conley, Daniel and Zillén, Lovisa and Anjar, Johanna},
   title = {The development of the Baltic Sea Basin during the last 130 ka},
   booktitle = {The Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer},
   pages = {75-97},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17220-5_4},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3191,
   author = {Aneer, G.},
   title = {Some Speculations about the Baltic Herring (Clupea harengus membras) in Connection with the Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {42},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {s83-s90},
   abstract = {In this paper the hypothesis is put forward that Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) spawning time, spring or autumn, is determined by feeding conditions during the adult phase and thus not genetically fixed. The present "absence" of autumn spawners is thought to be the result of improved feeding conditions during the latest decades as a result of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. During two spawning ground studies carried out in 1978 and 1982 unusually high mortality rates were noted for eggs in situ. In 1982, during 4?wk close to peak of spawning, the mortality increased substantially, especially for eggs among filamentous algae. A significant difference was noted between eggs on coarser algae and those among filamentous algae (p?<?0.001). During this period the average mortalities were 33 and 75%, respectively. Very low levels of oxygen were measured at night among the filamentous algae. An increase in the amounts of this type of algae as a response to the eutrophication might constitute a new hazard to the reproductive success of the Baltic herring.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   year = {1985},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3241,
   author = {AquaNIS, .},
   title = {Information system on aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species},
   number = {09.02.2021},
   url = {http://www.corpi.ku.lt/databases/index.php/aquanis/},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN3264,
   author = {Arend, Kristin K. and Beletsky, Dmitry and DePinto, Joseph V.  and Ludsin, Stuart A. and Roberts, James J.  and Rucinski, Daniel K.  and Scavia, Donald and Schwab, David J.  and Höök, Tomas O. },
   title = {Seasonal and interannual effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in central Lake Erie},
   journal = {Freshwater Biology},
   volume = {56},
   number = {2},
   pages = {366-383},
   abstract = {Summary 1. Hypoxia occurs seasonally in many stratified coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems when bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are depleted below 2–3 mg O2 L−1. 2. We evaluated the effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in the central basin of Lake Erie from 1987 to 2005, using bioenergetic growth rate potential (GRP) as a proxy for habitat quality. We compared the effect of hypoxia on habitat quality of (i) rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax mordax Mitchill (young-of-year, YOY, and adult), a cold-water planktivore, (ii) emerald shiner, Notropis atherinoides Rafinesque (adult), a warm-water planktivore, (iii) yellow perch, Perca flavescens Mitchill (YOY and adult), a cool-water benthopelagic omnivore and (iv) round goby Neogobius melanostomus Pallas (adult) a eurythermal benthivore. Annual thermal and DO profiles were generated from 1D thermal and DO hydrodynamics models developed for Lake Erie’s central basin. 3. Hypoxia occurred annually, typically from mid-July to mid-October, which spatially and temporally overlaps with otherwise high benthic habitat quality. Hypoxia reduced the habitat quality across fish species and life stages, but the magnitude of the reduction varied both among and within species because of the differences in tolerance to low DO levels and warm-water temperatures. 4. Across years, trends in habitat quality mirrored trends in phosphorus concentration and water column oxygen demand in central Lake Erie. The per cent reduction in habitat quality owing to hypoxia was greatest for adult rainbow smelt and round goby (mean: −35%), followed by adult emerald shiner (mean: −12%), YOY rainbow smelt (mean: −10%) and YOY and adult yellow perch (mean: −8.5%). 5. Our results highlight the importance of differential spatiotemporally interactive effects of DO and temperature on relative fish habitat quality and quantity. These effects have the potential to influence the performance of individual fish species as well as population dynamics, trophic interactions and fish community structure.},
   ISSN = {0046-5070},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3052,
   author = {Arheimer, B. and Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G.},
   title = {Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {62},
   abstract = {River flow is mainly controlled by climate, physiography and regulations, but their relative importance over large landmasses is poorly understood. Here we show from computational modelling that hydropower regulation is a key driver of flow regime change in snow-dominated regions and is more important than future climate changes. This implies that climate adaptation needs to include regulation schemes. The natural river regime in snowy regions has low flow when snow is stored and a pronounced peak flow when snow is melting. Global warming and hydropower regulation change this temporal pattern similarly, causing less difference in river flow between seasons. We conclude that in snow-fed rivers globally, the future climate change impact on flow regime is minor compared to regulation downstream of large reservoirs, and of similar magnitude over large landmasses. Our study not only highlights the impact of hydropower production but also that river regulation could be turned into a measure for climate adaptation to maintain biodiversity on floodplains under climate change.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1700,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Dahné, Joel and Donnelly, Chantal},
   title = {Climate change impact on riverine nutrient load and land-based remedial measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {600-612},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0323-0},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1580,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Lindström, Göran},
   title = {Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911-2100)},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {19},
   number = {2},
   pages = {771-784},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3449,
   author = {Arias, P.A. and Bellouin, N. and Coppola, E. and Jones, R.G. and Krinner, G. and Marotzke, J. and Naik, V. and Palmer, M.D. and Plattner, G.-K. and J. Rogelj and M. Rojas and J. Sillmann and T. Storelvmo and Thorne, P.W. and Trewin, B. and Rao, K. Achuta and Adhikary, B. and Allan, R.P. and Armour, K. and Bala, G. and Barimalala, R. and Berger, S. and Canadell, J.G. and Cassou, C. and Cherchi, A. and Collins, W. and Collins, W.D. and Connors, S.L. and Corti, S. and Cruz, F. and Dentener, F.J. and Dereczynski, C. and Luca, A. Di and Niang, A. Diongue and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Dosio, A. and Douville, H. and Engelbrecht, F. and Eyring, V. and Fischer, E. and Forster, P. and Fox-Kemper, B. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. and Fyfe, J.C. and Gillett, N.P. and Goldfarb, L. and Gorodetskaya, I. and Gutierrez, J.M. and Hamdi, R. and Hawkins, E. and Hewitt, H.T. and Hope, P. and Islam, A.S. and Jones, C. and Kaufman, D.S. and Kopp, R.E. and Kosaka, Y. and Kossin, J. and Krakovska, S. and Lee, J.-Y. and Li, J. and Mauritsen, T. and Maycock, T.K. and Meinshausen, M. and Min, S.-K. and Monteiro, P.M.S. and Ngo-Duc, T. and Otto, F. and Pinto, I. and Pirani, A. and Raghavan, K. and Ranasinghe, R. and Ruane, A.C. and Ruiz, L. and Sallée, J.-B. and Samset, B.H. and Sathyendranath, S. and Seneviratne, S.I. and Sörensson, A.A. and Szopa, S. and Takayabu, I. and Tréguier, A.-M. and Hurk, B. van den and Vautard, R. and Schuckmann, K. von and Zaehle, S. and Zhang, X. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Technical Summary},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte and V., P. Zhai and Pirani, A. and Connors, S.L. and Péan, C. and Berger, S. and Caud, N. and Chen, Y. and Goldfarb, L. and Gomis, M.I. and Huang, M. and Leitzell, K. and Lonnoy, E. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Maycock, T.K. and Waterfield, T. and Yelekçi, O. and Yu, R. and Zhou, B.},
   address = {Cambridge University Press},
   pages = {159pp},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2936,
   author = {Armitage, James M. and Quinn, Cristina L. and Wania, Frank},
   title = {Global climate change and contaminants—an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic},
   journal = {Journal of Environmental Monitoring},
   volume = {13},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1532-1546},
   abstract = {This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.},
   ISSN = {1464-0325},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1701,
   author = {Arneborg, Lars},
   title = {Comment on “Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea” by R. Hordoir, L. Axell, U. Löptien, H. Dietze, and I. Kuznetsov},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {121},
   number = {3},
   pages = {2035-2040},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011451},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1702,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J and Slomp, Caroline P and Stadmark, Johanna and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Efficiency of the coastal filter: Nitrogen and phosphorus removal in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {62},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {S222-S238},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10644},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3331,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Saikku, Laura},
   title = {Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {39},
   number = {2},
   pages = {126-135},
   abstract = {Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year−1 and 115 t P year−1. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1689,
   author = {Assel, Raymond and Cronk, Kevin and Norton, David},
   title = {Recent trends in Laurentian Great Lakes ice cover},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {57},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {185-204},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022140604052},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2739,
   author = {Athanasiadis, Panos J. and Yeager, Stephen and Kwon, Young-Oh and Bellucci, Alessio and Smith, David W. and Tibaldi, Stefano},
   title = {Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO},
   journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20},
   abstract = {Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.},
   ISSN = {2397-3722},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3221,
   author = {Authier, Matthieu and Brasseur, Sophie and Carlén, Ida and Carlström, Julia and Evans, Peter and Fernández, Ruth and Galatius, Anders and Gilles, Anita and Hammond, Philip and Kaminska, Katarzyna and Kavanagh, Ailbhe and Kingston, Allen and Königson, Sara and Koschinski, Sven and Larsen, Finn and Macleod, Kelly and Mugerza, Estanis and Müller, Miriam and Ojaveer, Henn and Papaioannou, Eva and Peltier, Hélène and Pierce, Graham and Pusch, Christian and Ridoux, Vincent and Santos, Begona and Sigurðsson, Guðjón and Tachoires, Stéphanie and Vinther, Morten and Woźniczka, Adam},
   title = {Workshop on fisheries Emergency Measures to minimize BYCatch of short-beaked common dolphins in the Bay of Biscay and harbour porpoise in the Baltic Sea (WKEMBYC)},
   note = {2020-12-12T21:37:03.959+01:00},
   month = {2020},
   keywords = {Ecology
Ekologi},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:nrm:diva-3949},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3371,
   author = {Averkiev, Alexander S. and Klevannyy, Konstantin A.},
   title = {A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {30},
   number = {6},
   pages = {707-714},
   abstract = {Modelling of water levels in the Baltic Sea, aimed at evaluating the influence of the trajectories and propagation speeds of a deep idealized cyclone on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, is done using the hydrodynamic model BSM6. An analytical expression for determination of the atmospheric pressure in this cyclone takes into account the existence of the cold front and the time evolution of the cyclone intensity. The empirical parameters in this relation are based on those of the deep cyclone ‘Erwin’ which passed over the Baltic Sea region in 2005.},
   keywords = {Storm surges
Extreme sea levels
Deep cyclones
Numerical modelling
Baltic Sea model
Gulf of Finland},
   ISSN = {0278-4343},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434309003082},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3369,
   author = {Axell, Lars and Liu, Ye and Jandt, Simon and Lorkowski, Ina and Lindenthal, Anja and Verjovkina, Svetlana and Schwichtenberg, Fabian},
   title = {Baltic Sea Production Centre BALTICSEA_REANALYSIS_BIO_003_012},
   institution = {COPERNICUS Marine Environment Monitoring Service, Issue 2.5},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00012},
   url = {https://cmems-resources.cls.fr/documents/QUID/CMEMS-BAL-QUID-003-012.pdf},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@book{RN1854,
   author = {BACC Author Team},
   title = {Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin},
   publisher = {Springer Science & Business Media},
   address = {Berlin, Heidelberg},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   pages = {473},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN1688,
   author = {BACC II Author Team},
   title = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   note = {read},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2827,
   author = {Bailey, Sarah A. and Brown, Lyndsay and Campbell, Marnie L. and Canning-Clode, João and Carlton, James T. and Castro, Nuno and Chainho, Paula and Chan, Farrah T. and Creed, Joel C. and Curd, Amelia and Darling, John and Fofonoff, Paul and Galil, Bella S. and Hewitt, Chad L. and Inglis, Graeme J. and Keith, Inti and Mandrak, Nicholas E. and Marchini, Agnese and McKenzie, Cynthia H. and Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna and Ojaveer, Henn and Pires-Teixeira, Larissa M. and Robinson, Tamara B. and Ruiz, Gregory M. and Seaward, Kimberley and Schwindt, Evangelina and Son, Mikhail O. and Therriault, Thomas W. and Zhan, Aibin},
   title = {Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective},
   journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
   volume = {26},
   number = {12},
   pages = {1780-1797},
   abstract = {Abstract Aim The introduction of aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) has become a major driver for global changes in species biogeography. We examined spatial patterns and temporal trends of ANS detections since 1965 to inform conservation policy and management. Location Global. Methods We assembled an extensive dataset of first records of detection of ANS (1965–2015) across 49 aquatic ecosystems, including the (a) year of first collection, (b) population status and (c) potential pathway(s) of introduction. Data were analysed at global and regional levels to assess patterns of detection rate, richness and transport pathways. Results An annual mean of 43 (±16 SD) primary detections of ANS occurred—one new detection every 8.4 days for 50 years. The global rate of detections was relatively stable during 1965–1995, but increased rapidly after this time, peaking at roughly 66 primary detections per year during 2005–2010 and then declining marginally. Detection rates were variable within and across regions through time. Arthropods, molluscs and fishes were the most frequently reported ANS. Most ANS were likely introduced as stowaways in ships’ ballast water or biofouling, although direct evidence is typically absent. Main conclusions This synthesis highlights the magnitude of recent ANS detections, yet almost certainly represents an underestimate as many ANS go unreported due to limited search effort and diminishing taxonomic expertise. Temporal rates of detection are also confounded by reporting lags, likely contributing to the lower detection rate observed in recent years. There is a critical need to implement standardized, repeated methods across regions and taxa to improve the quality of global-scale comparisons and sustain core measures over longer time-scales. It will be fundamental to fill in knowledge gaps given that invasion data representing broad regions of the world's oceans are not yet readily available and to maintain knowledge pipelines for adaptive management.},
   ISSN = {1366-9516},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1867,
   author = {Baird, Mark E and Ralph, Peter J and Rizwi, Farhan and Wild-Allen, Karen and Steven, Andrew DL},
   title = {A dynamic model of the cellular carbon to chlorophyll ratio applied to a batch culture and a continental shelf ecosystem},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1215-1226},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.4.1215},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2366,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Källén, Erland},
   title = {Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1754-1759},
   abstract = {The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50382},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2365,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso and Mogensen, Kristian and Weaver, Anthony T.},
   title = {Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4},
   journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
   volume = {139},
   number = {674},
   pages = {1132-1161},
   abstract = {Abstract A new operational ocean reanalysis system (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to the present. This article describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals. ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea-level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, the interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26°N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations. ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0–700 m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of sea-surface temperature product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea-level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure.},
   ISSN = {0035-9009},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2063},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3062,
   author = {Balog, I. and Others},
   title = {A numerical approach for planning offshore wind farms from regional to local scales over the Mediterranean},
   journal = {Renewable Energy},
   volume = {85},
   pages = {395-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2726,
   author = {BALTEX},
   title = {Minutes of 17th Meeting of the BALTEX Science Steering Group held at Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poznan, Poland, 24 - 26 November 2004},
   volume = {International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 32},
   pages = {100},
   ISSN = {ISSN 1681-6471},
   DOI = {https://www.baltex-research.eu/publications/SSG_minutes_diverse/BSSG17_minutes05.pdf (last access: 15/02/2022)},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3396,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Baltic Earth Science Plan 2017},
   institution = {International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 11},
   type = {Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Germany},
   DOI = {https://www.baltic.earth/imperia/md/assets/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/ibesp_no11_feb2017_be_science_plan.pdf},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2727,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Minutes of the 11th Meeting of the Baltic Earth Science Steering Group, held at Konventum Helsingør, Denmark, 10 June 2018},
   volume = {https://baltic.earth/organisation/bessg_material/BESSG_11_Minutes_Final.pdf},
   pages = {12pp},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3289,
   author = {Baltranaitė, Eglė and Povilanskas, Ramūnas and Dučinskas, Kęstutis and Ernšteins, Raimonds and Tõnisson, Hannes},
   title = {Systems Approach to Eastern Baltic Coastal Zone Management},
   journal = {Water},
   volume = {12},
   number = {11},
   abstract = {Relying on the results of multivariate analysis of the re-analysis case studies from the BaltCoast project, specific features of integrated coastal management (ICM) approaches in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation are highlighted in this paper. Eleven Eastern Baltic ICM case studies have been re-analyzed in-depth, which was the main focus of the present paper, covering a wide range of coastal landscapes, themes, policy issues, and ICM approaches. Five principal components explaining 84.86% of the total variance of ICM factor scores have been elicited by calculating rotation sums of squared loadings: (1) Stakeholder Involvement; (2) Research Base; (3) Planning Consistency; (4) Policy Environment, and (5) Development of Plans/Strategies. A truly dedicated involvement of a wide range of stakeholders throughout all process stages showed to be critical for further successful advance of ICM processes and principles based on the systems approach in the Baltic States and the Russian Federation.},
   keywords = {Baltic states
integrated coastal management
systems approach framework
Stakeholder involvement
retrospective analysis},
   ISSN = {2073-4441},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113102},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2005,
   author = {Bamber, Jonathan L. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Kopp, Robert E. and Aspinall, Willy P. and Cooke, Roger M.},
   title = {Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {116},
   number = {23},
   pages = {11195},
   abstract = {Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195.abstract},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1594,
   author = {Barbosa, Susana M and Donner, Reik V},
   title = {Long-term changes in the seasonality of Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {68},
   number = {1},
   pages = {30540},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.30540},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2768,
   author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
   title = {Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4734-4739},
   abstract = {Previous studies have suggested that Arctic amplification has caused planetary-scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather. Here trends in the meridional extent of atmospheric waves over North America and the North Atlantic are investigated in three reanalyses, and it is demonstrated that previously reported positive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary-scale wave phase speeds are found except in October-November-December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in midlatitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50880},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2022,
   author = {Barnston, Anthony G. and Livezey, Robert E.},
   title = {Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns},
   journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
   volume = {115},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1083-1126},
   abstract = {Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns.Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atlantic Ocean (North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern); two uncorrelated phases of 3-center, approximately east–west wave trains are found over the Eurasian continent (Eurasian Type 1 and Eurasian Type 2 patterns) and North American continent (Pacific/North American and Tropical/Northern Hemisphere patterns) and a Siberian north–south dipole emerges (Northern Asian pattern).The strongest summer pattern is also the strongest winter pattern—the North Atlantic Oscillation, which systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. Another strong summer pattern, named Subtropical Zonal, is a north–south dipole of great zonal extent at low latitudes. A single-center Asian summer pattern is also found. Two other regular patterns are found during transition seasons.An evaluation of the intermonthly and interseasonal persistence of the patterns shows that many of the strong winter patterns have statistically significant persistence in the middle of their active periods, and the Subtropical Zonal summer pattern shows considerable interannual, as well as intermonthly and interseasonal persistence.The robustness of the RPCA results is examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, and by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700 mb height. (Results using 10-day means point the way to use of a larger sample without noticeably obscuring the low-frequency signal.) Moreover, the analyses are repeatedly rerun withholding different sets of years from the record, and results are objectively compared with those using the full 35-year record. The conclusion from all considerations is that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful, as well as statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with pattern choice and depiction superior to those of the teleconnection method.},
   ISSN = {0027-0644},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO},
   year = {1987},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2051,
   author = {Barregard, Lars and Molnàr, Peter and Jonson, Jan Eiof and Stockfelt, Leo},
   title = {Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions},
   journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
   volume = {16},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1954},
   ISSN = {1660-4601},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16111954},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/11/1954},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3063,
   author = {Barstad, I. and Sorteberg, A. and dos-Santos Mesquita, M.},
   title = {Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {44},
   pages = {398-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3311,
   author = {Bartels, Pia and Ask, Jenny and Andersson, Agneta and Karlsson, Jan and Giesler, Reiner},
   title = {Allochthonous Organic Matter Supports Benthic but Not Pelagic Food Webs in Shallow Coastal Ecosystems},
   journal = {Ecosystems},
   volume = {21},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1459-1470},
   abstract = {Rivers transport large amounts of allochthonous organic matter (OM) to the ocean every year, but there are still fundamental gaps in how allochthonous OM is processed in the marine environment. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of allochthonous OM (allochthony) to the biomass of benthic and pelagic consumers in a shallow coastal ecosystem in the northern Baltic Sea. We used deuterium as a tracer of allochthony and assessed both temporal variation (monthly from May to August) and spatial variation (within and outside river plume). We found variability in allochthony in space and time and across species, with overall higher values for zoobenthos (26.2 ± 20.9%) than for zooplankton (0.8 ± 0.3%). Zooplankton allochthony was highest in May and very low during the other months, likely as a result of high inputs of allochthonous OM during the spring flood that fueled the pelagic food chain for a short period. In contrast, zoobenthos allochthony was only lower in June and remained high during the other months. Allochthony of zoobenthos was generally higher close to the river mouth than outside of the river plume, whereas it did not vary spatially for zooplankton. Last, zoobenthos allochthony was higher in deeper than in shallower areas, indicating that allochthonous OM might be more important when autochthonous resources are limited. Our results suggest that climate change predictions of increasing inputs of allochthonous OM to coastal ecosystems may affect basal energy sources supporting coastal food webs.},
   ISSN = {1435-0629},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2942,
   author = {Bartnicki, J. and Semeena, V. S. and Fagerli, H.},
   title = {Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in the period 1995–2006},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {19},
   pages = {10057-10069},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10057-2011},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/10057/2011/},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inproceedings{RN3024,
   author = {Bartnicki, Jerzy},
   title = {Atmospheric Contribution to Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   series = {Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   pages = {53-57},
   abstract = {Nitrogen and phosphorus are two main nutrients responsible for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Almost all phosphorus is entering the sea via rivers, whereas 20–30% of nitrogen is deposited from the air. Therefore, there is a need for monitoring atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea. Time series of annual nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea have been calculated for the period 1995–2015 with the same version of the EMEP MSC-W model. They show significant inter annual fluctuations due to changes in meteorological conditions from one year to another. To reduce the influence of meteorological conditions on the results the so called “normalized” depositions have been also calculated. They indicate a clear decline of annual depositions of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea and only minor decline of reduced nitrogen depositions in the considered period. Emissions from Germany and Poland are the main sources contributing to deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin followed by the ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and on the North Sea. Transportation and combustion are the main emission sectors contributing to oxidised nitro-gen deposition, whereas, agriculture is the dominating emission sector contributing to reduced nitrogen deposition.},
   ISBN = {978-3-030-22055-6},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_9},
   type = {Conference Proceedings}
}

@article{RN3339,
   author = {Bartoli, Marco and Zilius, Mindaugas and Bresciani, Mariano and Vaiciute, Diana and Vybernaite-Lubiene, Irma and Petkuviene, Jolita and Giordani, Gianmarco and Daunys, Darius and Ruginis, Tomas and Benelli, Sara and Giardino, Claudia and Bukaveckas, Paul A. and Zemlys, Petras and Griniene, Evelina and Gasiunaite, Zita R. and Lesutiene, Jurate and Pilkaitytė, Renata and Baziukas-Razinkovas, Arturas},
   title = {Drivers of Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Hypertrophic Lagoon},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {5},
   number = {434},
   abstract = {The Curonian Lagoon is Europe’s largest lagoon and one of the most seriously impacted by harmful blooms of cyanobacteria. Intensive studies over the past 20 years have allowed us to identify the major drivers determining the composition and spatial extent of hyperblooms in this system. We summarize and discuss the main outcomes of these studies and provide an updated, conceptual scheme of the multiple interactions between climatic and hydrologic factors, and their influence on internal and external processes that promote cyanobacterial blooms. Retrospective analysis of remote sensed images demonstrated the variability of blooms in terms of timing, extension and intensity, suggesting that they occur only under specific circumstances. Monthly analysis of nutrient loads and stoichiometry from the principal tributary (Nemunas River) revealed large interannual differences in the delivery of key elements, but summer months were always characterized by a strong dissolved inorganic N (and Si) limitation, that depresses diatoms and favors the dominance of cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria blooms occurred during high water temperatures, long water residence time and low-wind conditions. The blooms induce transient (night-time) hypoxia, which stimulates the release of iron-bound P, producing a positive feedback for blooms of N-fixing cyanobacteria. Consumer-mediated nutrient recycling by dreissenid mussels, chironomid larvae, cyprinids and large bird colonies, may also affect P availability, but their role as drivers of cyanobacteria blooms is understudied.},
   keywords = {Curonian Lagoon,Nitrogen,Phosphorus,silica,fluxes,stoichiometry,remote sensing,Cyanobacteria},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2507,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Margonski, Piotr and Lindegren, Martin and Linderholm, Hans. W. and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Rayner, David and Wennhage, Håkan and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study},
   journal = {Fisheries Oceanography},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {258-269},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.},
   ISSN = {1054-6006},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12060},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fog.12060},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2052,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Tian, Huidong and Bergström, Ulf and Jounela, Pekka and Aro, Eero and Dieterich, Christian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Bland, Barbara and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {12},
   number = {2},
   pages = {e0172004},
   abstract = {Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1966,
   author = {Bartosova, Alena and Capell, René and Olesen, Jørgen E. and Jabloun, Mohamed and Refsgaard, Jens Christian and Donnelly, Chantal and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Pihlainen, Sampo and Zandersen, Marianne and Arheimer, Berit},
   title = {Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1325-1336},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2741,
   author = {Bartók, Blanka and Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and Lüthi, Daniel and Kotlarski, Sven and Schär, Christoph and Vautard, Robert and Jerez, Sonia and Imecs, Zoltán},
   title = {Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2665-2683},
   abstract = {The objective of the present work is to compare the projections of surface solar radiation (SSR) simulated by four regional climate models (CCLM, RCA4, WRF, ALADIN) with the respective fields of their ten driving CMIP5 global climate models. First the annual and seasonal SSR changes are examined in the regional and in the global climate models based on the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The results show significant discrepancies between the projected SSR, the multi-model mean of RCMs indicates a decrease in SSR of −0.60 W/m2 per decade over Europe, while the multi-model mean of the associated GCMs used to drive the RCMs gives an increase in SSR of +0.39 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2006–2100 over Europe. At seasonal scale the largest differences appear in spring and summer. The different signs of SSR projected changes can be interpreted as the consequence of the different behavior of cloud cover in global and regional climate models. Cloudiness shows a significant decline in GCMs with −0.24% per decade which explains the extra income in SSR, while in case of the regional models no significant changes in cloudiness can be detected. The reduction of SSR in RCMs can be attributed to increasing atmospheric absorption in line with the increase of water vapor content. Both global and regional models overestimate SSR in absolute terms as compared to surface observations, in line with an underestimation of cloud cover. Regional models further have difficulties to adequately reproduce the observed trends in SSR over the past decades.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1504,
   author = {Bastos, A and Trigo, R M and Barbosa, S M},
   title = {Discrete wavelet analysis of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Baltic Sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {65},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20077},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20077},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2053,
   author = {Bates, Amanda E. and Pecl, Gretta T. and Frusher, Stewart and Hobday, Alistair J. and Wernberg, Thomas and Smale, Dan A. and Sunday, Jennifer M. and Hill, Nicole A. and Dulvy, Nicholas K. and Colwell, Robert K. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Fulton, Elizabeth A. and Slawinski, Dirk and Feng, Ming and Edgar, Graham J. and Radford, Ben T. and Thompson, Peter A. and Watson, Reg A.},
   title = {Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems},
   journal = {Global Environmental Change},
   volume = {26},
   pages = {27-38},
   abstract = {Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.},
   keywords = {Species redistribution
Attribution
Prediction
Biogeography
Warming
Abundance–occupancy relationship},
   ISSN = {0959-3780},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000570},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1956,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Saraiva, Sofia and Tomczak, Maciej T.},
   title = {Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   pages = {1337–1349},
   abstract = {We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1884,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Meier, H. E. Markus and Casini, Michele and Hoff, Ayoe and Margoński, Piotr and Orio, Alessandro and Saraiva, Sofia and Steenbeek, Jeroen and Tomczak, Maciej T},
   title = {Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {75},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1306-1317},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy023},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3183,
   author = {Baumann, H. and Hinrichsen, H. H. and Möllmann, C. and Köster, F. W. and Malzahn, A. M. and Temming, A.},
   title = {Recruitment variability in Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) is tightly coupled to temperature and transport patterns affecting the larval and early juvenile stages},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {63},
   number = {10},
   pages = {2191-2201},
   abstract = {Recruitment patterns of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) were correlated to time series of (i) month- and depth-specific temperature conditions and (ii) larval drift patterns inferred from long-term Lagrangian particle simulations. From the latter, we derived an index that likely reflected the variable degree of annual larval transport from the central, deep spawning basins to the shallow coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The drift index was significantly (P < 0.001) correlated to sprat recruitment success and explained, together with sprat spawning stock biomass, 82% of the overall variability between 1979 and 2003. Years of strong larval displacement towards southern and eastern Baltic coasts corresponded to relative recruitment failure, while years of retention within the deep basins were associated with relative recruitment success. The strongest correlation between temperature and recruitment occurred during August in surface waters, explaining 73% of the overall variability. Together, the two approaches advocate that new year classes of Baltic sprat are predominantly composed of individuals born late in the season and are determined in strength mainly by processes acting during the late larval and early juvenile stages. However, prior to be included in recruitment predictions, the biological mechanisms underlying these strong correlations may need to be better resolved.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3121,
   author = {Beaugrand, Grégory},
   title = {The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {60},
   number = {2},
   pages = {245-262},