@book{RN3096,
   title = {Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project},
   publisher = {Met Office Hadley Centre},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN1667,
   author = {1, IPCC AR4 Working Group},
   title = {Table TS.6},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Statute}
}

@article{RN1687,
   author = {(FMI), Baltic Sea ice data},
   title = {Maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea since 1720, MERI-Report Series by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)},
   journal = {EEA},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2837,
   author = {Aalto, Juha and Pirinen, Pentti and Jylhä, Kirsti},
   title = {New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {121},
   number = {8},
   pages = {3807-3823},
   abstract = {Abstract Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI_ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961–2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1699,
   author = {Aarup, T and Holt, N and Højerslev, N K},
   title = {Optical measurements in the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone. II. Water mass classification along the Jutland west coast from salinity and spectral irradiance measurements},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {16},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1343-1353},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(95)00076-3},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2048,
   author = {Aarvak, Tomas and Jostein ØIen, Ingar and Krasnov, Yuri V. and Gavrilo, Maria V. and Shavykin, Anatoly A.},
   title = {The European wintering population of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri reassessed},
   journal = {Bird Conservation International},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {337-343},
   abstract = {Prolonged declines in the number of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri wintering in Europe have raised concerns about the conservation status of the Western Palearctic population. Coordinated helicopter surveys of all known wintering areas in Norway and Russia and ground counts in the Baltic in 2009 found c.27,000 Steller’s Eiders, similar to numbers found during the last such survey in the mid-1990s. However, around 85% of the population now winters in Russia compared to 30–50% then. The reasons for this rapid shift in distribution are unknown but are likely linked to climate change. The continuing small population size, specialist feeding and restricted distribution of Steller’s Eider necessitate continued survey and research to track population changes and provide evidence for conservation management actions to safeguard the species.},
   ISSN = {0959-2709},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0959270912000251},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/european-wintering-population-of-stellers-eider-polysticta-stelleri-reassessed/BB0F64C14D07931010BB91EE12DD5374},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2504,
   author = {Aberle, N. and Malzahn, A. M. and Lewandowska, A. M. and Sommer, U.},
   title = {Some like it hot: the protozooplankton-copepod link in a warming ocean},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {519},
   pages = {103-113},
   note = {10.3354/meps11081},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: The combined effects of warming and densities of overwintering copepods on the spring succession of Baltic Sea plankton were investigated using indoor mesocosms. Three zooplankton densities (1.5, 4 and 10 copepods l<sup>-1</sup>) and 2 temperature levels (Δ0°C and Δ6°C; 0°C and 6°C above present-day temperatures in the Kiel Bight) were chosen. Both the timing and the duration of the protozooplankton (PZP) bloom were significantly affected by temperature, but not by copepod density. In contrast, the bloom intensity of PZP was highly affected by the factors temperature and copepod density and their interaction. This suggests that under elevated temperature conditions PZP grows faster, but, at the same time, is subject to higher top-down control by copepods. At low temperatures and low copepod densities, PZP, in turn, fully escaped from copepod predation. Further changes in copepod overwintering densities resulted in a strong suppression of ciliates, of which small-sized ciliates (<30 µm) were especially vulnerable to copepod predation, while other PZP size classes remained unaffected. In conclusion, results point at a pivotal regulating role of overwintering copepods under future warming conditions. Further, warming was shown to cause a distinct match between phytoplankton and PZP, thus strengthening trophic pathways through PZP. Our findings are discussed in the context of the ‘trophic link-sink’ debate by considering potential alterations in the flux of matter and energy up the food web.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11081},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v519/p103-113/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2888,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Su, Fengge and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {112},
   pages = {D24114},
   abstract = {Since the 1930s, combined streamflow from the largest Eurasian rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing. For many of these rivers, an increase in annual streamflow volume has been accompanied by a shift in seasonality (e.g., earlier snowmelt runoff in the spring). These changes in annual and seasonal streamflow may be due to direct effects of climate change (e.g., increased precipitation, or changes in snow accumulation and ablation patterns), indirect effects of climate change (e.g., changes in permafrost), or human effects (e.g., storage and release of river runoff in reservoirs). We develop and describe a method to estimate the potential contributions of artificial reservoirs to long-term changes in annual and seasonal streamflow between 1937 and 1998. Reservoir effects on downstream flow are simulated using a reservoir routing model coupled off-line to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model for the Lena, Yenisei and Ob' river basins. The effects of reservoirs on basin average evaporation are also represented. We perform trend analysis on long-term (≥30 years) time series of seasonal and annual streamflow and isolate the effects of reservoirs. Although reservoirs have had little effect on trends in annual discharge from the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins, we conclude that they are responsible for many of the seasonal changes that have been observed. For the Lena, reservoirs account for up to 80% and 30% of the observed winter and spring trends, respectively. For the Yenisei, reservoirs account for up to 100%, 40%, and 60% to 100% of the observed winter, spring, and late summer to early fall trends, respectively. For the Ob', reservoirs may account for more than 70% of the observed trends during the months of January to March. A result of this study is a set of reconstructed streamflow at the outlets of the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins which can be used in subsequent studies to improve the understanding of climate change effects on runoff generation in the Eurasian Arctic.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2889,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Application of New Precipitation and Reconstructed Streamflow Products to Streamflow Trend Attribution in Northern Eurasia},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {21},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1807-1828},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1535.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/8/2007jcli1535.1.xml},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1893,
   author = {Ahlgren, Joakim and Grimvall, Anders and Omstedt, Anders and Rolff, Carl and Wikner, Johan},
   title = {Temperature, DOC level and basin interactions explain the declining oxygen concentrations in the Bothnian Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {170},
   pages = {22-30},
   keywords = {Oxygen depletion
Hypoxia
Bothnian Sea
Baltic Sea
Climatic changes
Modelling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.12.010},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796316301877},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN1941,
   author = {Ahtiainen, Heini and Öhman, Marcus C.},
   title = {Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea : Valuation of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea},
   publisher = {Nordisk Ministerråd},
   address = {Copenhagen},
   series = {TemaNord},
   note = {2015-03-11T15:55:21.971+01:00
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/FULLTEXT02.pdf},
   abstract = {This report presents an overview of the ecosystem services and associated benefits provided by the Baltic Sea, including information on the approaches of assessing and valuing ecosystem services being applied in the Baltic Sea region. It also identifies the main challenges in ecosystem service assessments in the Baltic Sea, and outlines the way forward in applying assessment tools in regional and national policies.Valuation of the benefits provided by ecosystem services can aid in designing more efficient policies for the protection of the Baltic Sea. The existing studies on the value of improved marine environment are useful in assessing the importance and value of some marine ecosystem services, but further work is still needed on describing ecosystem services and their interactions, and evaluating how policy changes affect these services and human well-being.},
   keywords = {Environmental Sciences
Miljövetenskap},
   pages = {74},
   ISBN = {978-92-893-3861-5 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3863-9 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3862-2 (ISBN)
09086692 (ISSN)},
   DOI = {10.6027/TN2014-563
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/PREVIEW01.jpg},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:norden:org:diva-3536},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN3156,
   author = {Akhtar, Naveed and Geyer, Beate and Rockel, Burkhardt and Sommer, Philipp S. and Schrum, Corinna},
   title = {Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alter wind climate and reduce future power generation potentials},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {11},
   number = {1},
   pages = {11826},
   abstract = {The European Union has set ambitious CO2 reduction targets, stimulating renewable energy production and accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy in northern European waters, mainly the North Sea. With increasing size and clustering, offshore wind farms (OWFs) wake effects, which alter wind conditions and decrease the power generation efficiency of wind farms downwind become more important. We use a high-resolution regional climate model with implemented wind farm parameterizations to explore offshore wind energy production limits in the North Sea. We simulate near future wind farm scenarios considering existing and planned OWFs in the North Sea and assess power generation losses and wind variations due to wind farm wake. The annual mean wind speed deficit within a wind farm can reach 2–2.5 ms−1 depending on the wind farm geometry. The mean deficit, which decreases with distance, can extend 35–40 km downwind during prevailing southwesterly winds. Wind speed deficits are highest during spring (mainly March–April) and lowest during November–December. The large-size of wind farms and their proximity affect not only the performance of its downwind turbines but also that of neighboring downwind farms, reducing the capacity factor by 20% or more, which increases energy production costs and economic losses. We conclude that wind energy can be a limited resource in the North Sea. The limits and potentials for optimization need to be considered in climate mitigation strategies and cross-national optimization of offshore energy production plans are inevitable.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2505,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Karsten, Ulf and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Genotypic variation influences tolerance to warming and acidification of early life-stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) in a seasonally fluctuating environment},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {163},
   number = {1},
   pages = {14},
   abstract = {Global change exposes brown algal Fucus vesiculosus populations to increasing temperature and pCO2, which may threaten individuals, in particular the early life-stages. Genetic diversity of F. vesiculosus populations is low in the Baltic compared to Atlantic populations. This might jeopardise their potential for adaptation to environmental changes. Here, we report on the responses of early life-stage F. vesiculosus to warming and acidification in a near-natural scenario maintaining natural and seasonal variation (spring 2013–2014) of the Kiel Fjord in the Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27ʹN, 10°11ʹW). We assessed how stress sensitivity differed among sibling groups and how genetic diversity of germling populations affected their stress tolerance. Warming increased growth rates of Fucus germlings in spring and in early summer, but led to higher photoinhibition in spring and decreased their survival in late summer. Acidification increased germlings’ growth in summer but otherwise showed much weaker effects than warming. During the colder seasons (autumn and winter), growth was slow while survival was high compared to spring and summer, all at ambient temperatures. A pronounced variation in stress response among genetically different sibling groups (full-sib families) suggests a genotypic basis for this variation and thus a potential for adaptation for F. vesiculosus populations to future conditions. Corroborating this, survival in response to warming in populations with higher diversity was better than the mean survival of single sibling groups. We conclude that impacts on early life-stages depend on the combination of stressors and season and that genetic variation is crucial for the tolerance to global change stress.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2506,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Winde, Vera and Lenz, Mark and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Buffering and Amplifying Interactions among OAW (Ocean Acidification & Warming) and Nutrient Enrichment on Early Life-Stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Their Carry Over Effects to Hypoxia Impact},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {11},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e0152948},
   abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are occurring globally. Additionally, at a more local scale the spreading of hypoxic conditions is promoted by eutrophication and warming. In the semi-enclosed brackish Baltic Sea, occasional upwelling in late summer and autumn may expose even shallow-water communities including the macroalga Fucus vesiculosus to particularly acidified, nutrient-rich and oxygen-poor water bodies. During summer 2014 (July–September) sibling groups of early life-stage F. vesiculosus were exposed to OAW in the presence and absence of enhanced nutrient levels and, subsequently to a single upwelling event in a near-natural scenario which included all environmental fluctuations in the Kiel Fjord, southwestern Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27 ´N, 10°11 ´W). We strove to elucidate the single and combined impacts of these potential stressors, and how stress sensitivity varies among genetically different sibling groups. Enhanced by a circumstantial natural heat wave, warming and acidification increased mortalities and reduced growth in F. vesiculosus germlings. This impact, however, was mitigated by enhanced nutrient conditions. Survival under OAW conditions strongly varied among sibling groups hinting at a substantial adaptive potential of the natural Fucus populations in the Western Baltic. A three-day experimental upwelling caused severe mortality of Fucus germlings, which was substantially more severe in those sibling groups which previously had been exposed to OAW. Our results show that global (OAW), regional (nutrient enrichment) and local pressures (upwelling), both alone and co-occurring may have synergistic and antagonistic effects on survival and/or growth of Fucus germlings. This result emphasizes the need to consider combined stress effects.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3258,
   author = {Aldridge, David W. and Payne, Barry S. and Miller, Andrew C.},
   title = {Oxygen consumption, nitrogenous excretion, and filtration rates of Dreissena polymorpha at acclimation temperatures between 20 and 32 °C},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {52},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1761-1767},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f95-768},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-768 %X Mussels were acclimated to each of four experimental temperatures (20, 24, 28, and 32 °C) for 30 days. Mussels averaged 10.29 mg tissue dry weight. Oxygen consumption rates at 32 °C were 3.65 times larger than consumption rates at 20 °C (p < 0.01). Ammonia excretion rates at 32 °C were 4.9 times greater than those at 20 °C (p < 0.01). O:N ratios were >60 at 20 and 24 °C but declined (p < 0.01) at 28 and 32 °C to <40. Filtration rates, an estimate of feeding rates, were not significantly different at 20 and 24 °C (p > 0.50) but declined at 28 and 32 °C (p < 0.01). Filtration rates at 32 °C were only 27% of the rates at 20 °C. These results indicate that (i) the metabolic expenditure of Dreissena polymorpha rose 265% as the temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C, (ii) metabolism relied more heavily on lipids and carbohydrates at 20 and 24 °C while protein catabolism increased at 28 and 32 °C, and (iii) the potential feeding rates of D. polymorpha declined by 73% as temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C. Above 28 °C D. polymorpha was unable to match energy expenditures with concurrent food intake and forced to rely on stored fuels.},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1548,
   author = {Alheit, J and Möllmann, C and Dutz, Jörg and Kornilovs, G and Loewe, P and Mohrholz, V and Wasmund, N},
   title = {Synchronous ecological regime shifts in the central Baltic and the North Sea in the late 1980s},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {62},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1205-1215},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.04.024},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2432,
   author = {Alkama, Ramdane and Cescatti, Alessandro},
   title = {Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {351},
   number = {6273},
   pages = {600-604},
   abstract = {Forest loss affects climate not just because of the impacts it has on the carbon cycle, but also because of how it affects the fluxes of energy and water between the land and the atmosphere. Evaluating global impact is complicated because deforestation can produce different results in different climate zones, making it hard to determine large-scale trends rather than more local ones. Alkama and Cescatti conducted a global assessment of the biophysical effects of forest cover change. Forest loss amplifies diurnal temperature variations, increases mean and maximum air temperatures, and causes a significant amount of warming when compared to CO2 emission from land-use change.Science, this issue p. 600Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003–2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/351/6273/600.full.pdf},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2598,
   author = {Allen, M.R. and Dube, O.P. and Solecki, W. and Aragón-Durand, F. and Cramer, W. and Humphreys, S. and Kainuma, M. and Kala, J. and Mahowald, N. and Mulugetta, Y. and Perez, R. and Wairiu, M. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Framing and Context},
   booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and Péan, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-1/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3008,
   author = {Allen, R. J. and Norris, J. R. and Wild, M.},
   title = {Evaluation of multidecadal variability in CMIP5 surface solar radiation and inferred underestimation of aerosol direct effects over Europe, China, Japan, and India},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {118},
   number = {12},
   pages = {6311-6336},
   abstract = {Observations from the Global Energy Balance Archive indicate regional decreases in all sky surface solar radiation from ∼1950s to 1980s, followed by an increase during the 1990s. These periods are popularly called dimming and brightening, respectively. Removal of the radiative effects of cloud cover variability from all sky surface solar radiation results in a quantity called “clear sky proxy” radiation, in which multidecadal trends can be seen more distinctly, suggesting aerosol radiative forcing as a likely cause. Prior work has shown climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) generally underestimate the magnitude of these trends, particularly over China and India. Here we perform a similar analysis with 173 simulations from 42 climate models participating in the new CMIP5. Results show negligible improvement over CMIP3, as CMIP5 dimming trends over four regions—Europe, China, India, and Japan—are all underestimated. This bias is largest for both India and China, where the multimodel mean yields a decrease in clear sky proxy radiation of −1.3±0.3 and −1.2±0.2 W m−2decade−1, respectively, compared to observed decreases of −6.5±0.9 and −8.2±1.3 W m−2decade−1. Similar underestimation of the observed dimming over Japan exists, with the CMIP5 mean dimming ∼20% as large as observed. Moreover, not a single simulation reproduces the magnitude of the observed dimming trend for these three regions. Relative to dimming, CMIP5 models better simulate the observed brightening, but significant underestimation exists for both China and Japan. Overall, no individual model performs particularly well for all four regions. Model biases do not appear to be related to the use of prescribed versus prognostic aerosols or to aerosol indirect effects. However, models exhibit significant correlations between clear sky proxy radiation and several aerosol-related fields, most notably aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorption AOD. This suggests model underestimation of the observed trends is related to underestimation of aerosol direct radiative forcing and/or deficient aerosol emission inventories.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2599,
   author = {Allen, S. G.  and Ainley, D. G. and Page, G. W. and Ribic, C. A.},
   title = {The effect on distribution on harbor seal haul out patterns at Bolinas Lagoon, California},
   booktitle = {Fishery Bulletin},
   editor = {Richards, William J. and Collette, Bruce B. and Houde, Edward D. and Ingham, Merten C. and Lasker, Reuben and Malins, Donald C. and Pella, Jerome J. and Quast, Jay C. and Sindermann, Carl J. and Fukuyama, Mary S.},
   publisher = {National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA},
   address = {Seattle, WA, USA},
   volume = {82 (3)},
   pages = {493-500},
   year = {1984},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@phdthesis{RN3262,
   author = {Almqvist, Gustaf},
   title = {Round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea – Invasion Biology in practice},
   university = {Systemekologiska institutionen},
   note = {(biträdande)},
   type = {Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary},
   abstract = {Human mediated transfer of non-indigenous species is considered to be a major threat to global biodiversity. The Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), which has established populations in various regions in Eurasia and North-America, was first observed in Gulf of Gdańsk, Baltic Sea, in 1990. In this thesis the round goby is used as case study for assessing the invasion process of an alien species in to the Baltic Sea. Factors governing life history characteristics, traits that have enhanced the invasion, and ecological consequences for the Baltic Sea are assessed. Two diverging life history strategies of the round goby related to habitat were found: one to-wards early maturation and short population turnover time in sheltered areas, the other towards high growth rate and late maturation in exposed areas. Females produced two batches in average during the spawning season. Lengths of spawning season and annual fecundity of round gobies in Gulf of Gdańsk were in the same range as in the donor region. The species was found to compete with juvenile flounder for space and food resources, and probably also other native species are affected in coastal areas. Round goby comprised a main food source for cod and perch, forming a new energetic pathway between mussels and predatory fish. It is predicted that the species must produce more than one batch per season to sustain a viable population. Low temperature in the northern Baltic Sea is expected to hamper the devel-opment of new round goby populations, however, the global climate change might change this situation. In the southern Baltic Sea a shortage of optimal reproduction habitats is suggested to moderate the rate of spread. Although round goby in the Gulf of Gdańsk seems to have passed abundance maximum it is likely that the species will continue to be an important ecosystem component, at least in southern Baltic Sea, in the future.},
   keywords = {Round goby
Neogobius melanostomus
Apollonia melanostoma
non-indigenous fish
life history characteristics
predation
competition
Gulf of Gdańsk
Baltic Sea.
Ecology
Ekologi},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-7450},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN3050,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, E. and Edman, M. and Eilola, K. and Meier, H. E. M. and Sahlberg, J.},
   title = {Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {20},
   pages = {5753-5769},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5753-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/5753/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1690,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Hordoir, Robinson and Meier, H. E. Markus and Hall, Per O J},
   title = {Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {87},
   pages = {1-12},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.02.005},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1961,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Kuznetsov, Ivan and Hall, Per O. J. and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {144},
   pages = {127-141},
   abstract = {The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980–2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59×103t P year−1 and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60–150m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43×103t P year−1. For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19×103t P year−1. In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7×103t P year−1. The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period.},
   keywords = {Phosphorus release
Oxygen penetration depth
Eutrophication
Saltwater inflow
Biogeochemical modelling
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.11.007},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314003121},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3113,
   author = {Altieri, Andrew H. and Gedan, Keryn B.},
   title = {Climate change and dead zones},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {21},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1395-1406},
   abstract = {Abstract Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1964,
   author = {Andersen, Jesper H. and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J. and Dromph, Karsten and Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Josefson, Alf B. and Norkko, Alf and Villnäs, Anna and Murray, Ciarán},
   title = {Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biological Reviews},
   volume = {92},
   number = {1},
   pages = {135-149},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.},
   ISSN = {1464-7931},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12221},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12221},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3162,
   author = {Andersen, N. G. and Lundgren, B. and Neuenfeldt, S. and Beyer, J. E.},
   title = {Diel vertical interactions between Atlantic cod Gadus morhua and sprat Sprattus sprattus in a stratified water column},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {583},
   pages = {195-209},
   note = {10.3354/meps12319},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Information about species interactions at a spatial scale comparable to the perceptive abilities of the involved species is crucial for establishment of predictive food consumption models at the population level. Nevertheless, such information is sparse due to methodological constraints. We studied the diel vertical dynamics of species interactions between Atlantic cod <i>Gadus morhua</i> and its major clupeid prey, sprat <i>Sprattus sprattus</i>, at a location in the Bornholm Basin of the central Baltic Sea during late winter. This was accomplished by combining acoustic information on diel vertical fish distribution, time of ingestion of individual sprat estimated from cod stomach content data and observed vertical profiles of salinity, temperature and oxygen content. Predation by cod took place primarily at dusk and dawn during ascent and descent of sprat associated with school dissolution and formation, respectively. Cod resided close to the bottom outside these temporal predation windows. Sprat schools were located at the same depth as cod in the daylight hours, whereas at night dispersed sprat were situated higher in the water column. These vertical dynamics could be explained by fitness optimization using bioenergetics and trade-offs between temperature, oxygen saturation of the water and predation risk. This study forms a first step towards providing a mechanistic background for the predatory impact of cod at the basin scale and beyond.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v583/p195-209/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3222,
   author = {Andersen, S.M. and Teilmann, J. and Dietz, R. and Schmidt, N.M. and Miller, L.A.},
   title = {Behavioural responses of harbour seals to human-induced disturbances},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {22},
   number = {1},
   pages = {113-121},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT In Denmark, harbour seals, Phoca vitulina, were first protected in 1977, and since then a number of seal reserves have been established in Danish waters. The effectiveness of these reserves to prevent human-induced disturbances to the seal population have, however, not been evaluated. To evaluate this, experimental disturbances were conducted in one of the most important seal reserves in Denmark (Anholt seal reserve). Specifically, the behavioural responses (alert distance, flight initiation distance, flee distances and flight duration) of harbour seals to approaching pedestrians and boats were studied. The project was conducted during three periods related to the breeding cycle of harbour seals. In all periods, harbour seals were alerted by boats at significantly greater distances compared with pedestrians (560–850 m and 200–425 m, respectively). Similar differences in the flight initiation distances were observed, 510–830 m for boats and 165–260 m for pedestrians. In most cases seals were alerted and began to flee when the approaching boat was outside the reserve, whereas seals did not respond to approaching pedestrians until after they had entered the reserve. Harbour seals exhibited weaker and shorter-lasting responses during the breeding season. They were more reluctant to flee and returned to the haul-out site immediately after being disturbed, in some cases even during the disturbance. This seasonal tolerance is most likely attributed to a trade-off between fleeing and nursing during the breeding season, and hence not an indication of habituation. Based on the results of this study it is suggested that the reserve boundaries on land be placed at least 425 m from the haul-out area and the boundary at sea should extend to at least 850 m from the haul-out area in order to secure adequate year-round protection from disturbances. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1963,
   author = {Andersson, Agneta and Meier, H. E. Markus and Ripszam, Matyas and Rowe, Owen and Wikner, Johan and Haglund, Peter and Eilola, Kari and Legrand, Catherine and Figueroa, Daniela and Paczkowska, Joanna and Lindehoff, Elin and Tysklind, Mats and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {345-356},
   abstract = {Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3056,
   author = {Andersson, H. C.},
   title = {Stigande havsnivåer och ökad översvämningsrisk},
   institution = {Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,},
   number = {MSB 1243},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1962,
   author = {Andersson, Helén C.},
   title = {Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {54},
   number = {1},
   pages = {76-88},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN1566,
   author = {Andrén, Thomas and Björck, Svante and Andrén, Elinor and Conley, Daniel and Zillén, Lovisa and Anjar, Johanna},
   title = {The development of the Baltic Sea Basin during the last 130 ka},
   booktitle = {The Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer},
   pages = {75-97},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17220-5_4},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3191,
   author = {Aneer, G.},
   title = {Some Speculations about the Baltic Herring (Clupea harengus membras) in Connection with the Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {42},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {s83-s90},
   abstract = {In this paper the hypothesis is put forward that Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) spawning time, spring or autumn, is determined by feeding conditions during the adult phase and thus not genetically fixed. The present "absence" of autumn spawners is thought to be the result of improved feeding conditions during the latest decades as a result of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. During two spawning ground studies carried out in 1978 and 1982 unusually high mortality rates were noted for eggs in situ. In 1982, during 4?wk close to peak of spawning, the mortality increased substantially, especially for eggs among filamentous algae. A significant difference was noted between eggs on coarser algae and those among filamentous algae (p?<?0.001). During this period the average mortalities were 33 and 75%, respectively. Very low levels of oxygen were measured at night among the filamentous algae. An increase in the amounts of this type of algae as a response to the eutrophication might constitute a new hazard to the reproductive success of the Baltic herring.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   year = {1985},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3241,
   author = {AquaNIS, .},
   title = {Information system on aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species},
   number = {09.02.2021},
   url = {http://www.corpi.ku.lt/databases/index.php/aquanis/},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN3264,
   author = {Arend, Kristin K. and Beletsky, Dmitry and DePinto, Joseph V.  and Ludsin, Stuart A. and Roberts, James J.  and Rucinski, Daniel K.  and Scavia, Donald and Schwab, David J.  and Höök, Tomas O. },
   title = {Seasonal and interannual effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in central Lake Erie},
   journal = {Freshwater Biology},
   volume = {56},
   number = {2},
   pages = {366-383},
   abstract = {Summary 1. Hypoxia occurs seasonally in many stratified coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems when bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are depleted below 2–3 mg O2 L−1. 2. We evaluated the effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in the central basin of Lake Erie from 1987 to 2005, using bioenergetic growth rate potential (GRP) as a proxy for habitat quality. We compared the effect of hypoxia on habitat quality of (i) rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax mordax Mitchill (young-of-year, YOY, and adult), a cold-water planktivore, (ii) emerald shiner, Notropis atherinoides Rafinesque (adult), a warm-water planktivore, (iii) yellow perch, Perca flavescens Mitchill (YOY and adult), a cool-water benthopelagic omnivore and (iv) round goby Neogobius melanostomus Pallas (adult) a eurythermal benthivore. Annual thermal and DO profiles were generated from 1D thermal and DO hydrodynamics models developed for Lake Erie’s central basin. 3. Hypoxia occurred annually, typically from mid-July to mid-October, which spatially and temporally overlaps with otherwise high benthic habitat quality. Hypoxia reduced the habitat quality across fish species and life stages, but the magnitude of the reduction varied both among and within species because of the differences in tolerance to low DO levels and warm-water temperatures. 4. Across years, trends in habitat quality mirrored trends in phosphorus concentration and water column oxygen demand in central Lake Erie. The per cent reduction in habitat quality owing to hypoxia was greatest for adult rainbow smelt and round goby (mean: −35%), followed by adult emerald shiner (mean: −12%), YOY rainbow smelt (mean: −10%) and YOY and adult yellow perch (mean: −8.5%). 5. Our results highlight the importance of differential spatiotemporally interactive effects of DO and temperature on relative fish habitat quality and quantity. These effects have the potential to influence the performance of individual fish species as well as population dynamics, trophic interactions and fish community structure.},
   ISSN = {0046-5070},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3052,
   author = {Arheimer, B. and Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G.},
   title = {Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {62},
   abstract = {River flow is mainly controlled by climate, physiography and regulations, but their relative importance over large landmasses is poorly understood. Here we show from computational modelling that hydropower regulation is a key driver of flow regime change in snow-dominated regions and is more important than future climate changes. This implies that climate adaptation needs to include regulation schemes. The natural river regime in snowy regions has low flow when snow is stored and a pronounced peak flow when snow is melting. Global warming and hydropower regulation change this temporal pattern similarly, causing less difference in river flow between seasons. We conclude that in snow-fed rivers globally, the future climate change impact on flow regime is minor compared to regulation downstream of large reservoirs, and of similar magnitude over large landmasses. Our study not only highlights the impact of hydropower production but also that river regulation could be turned into a measure for climate adaptation to maintain biodiversity on floodplains under climate change.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1700,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Dahné, Joel and Donnelly, Chantal},
   title = {Climate change impact on riverine nutrient load and land-based remedial measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {600-612},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0323-0},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1580,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Lindström, Göran},
   title = {Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911-2100)},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {19},
   number = {2},
   pages = {771-784},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3449,
   author = {Arias, P.A. and Bellouin, N. and Coppola, E. and Jones, R.G. and Krinner, G. and Marotzke, J. and Naik, V. and Palmer, M.D. and Plattner, G.-K. and J. Rogelj and M. Rojas and J. Sillmann and T. Storelvmo and Thorne, P.W. and Trewin, B. and Rao, K. Achuta and Adhikary, B. and Allan, R.P. and Armour, K. and Bala, G. and Barimalala, R. and Berger, S. and Canadell, J.G. and Cassou, C. and Cherchi, A. and Collins, W. and Collins, W.D. and Connors, S.L. and Corti, S. and Cruz, F. and Dentener, F.J. and Dereczynski, C. and Luca, A. Di and Niang, A. Diongue and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Dosio, A. and Douville, H. and Engelbrecht, F. and Eyring, V. and Fischer, E. and Forster, P. and Fox-Kemper, B. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. and Fyfe, J.C. and Gillett, N.P. and Goldfarb, L. and Gorodetskaya, I. and Gutierrez, J.M. and Hamdi, R. and Hawkins, E. and Hewitt, H.T. and Hope, P. and Islam, A.S. and Jones, C. and Kaufman, D.S. and Kopp, R.E. and Kosaka, Y. and Kossin, J. and Krakovska, S. and Lee, J.-Y. and Li, J. and Mauritsen, T. and Maycock, T.K. and Meinshausen, M. and Min, S.-K. and Monteiro, P.M.S. and Ngo-Duc, T. and Otto, F. and Pinto, I. and Pirani, A. and Raghavan, K. and Ranasinghe, R. and Ruane, A.C. and Ruiz, L. and Sallée, J.-B. and Samset, B.H. and Sathyendranath, S. and Seneviratne, S.I. and Sörensson, A.A. and Szopa, S. and Takayabu, I. and Tréguier, A.-M. and Hurk, B. van den and Vautard, R. and Schuckmann, K. von and Zaehle, S. and Zhang, X. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Technical Summary},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte and V., P. Zhai and Pirani, A. and Connors, S.L. and Péan, C. and Berger, S. and Caud, N. and Chen, Y. and Goldfarb, L. and Gomis, M.I. and Huang, M. and Leitzell, K. and Lonnoy, E. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Maycock, T.K. and Waterfield, T. and Yelekçi, O. and Yu, R. and Zhou, B.},
   address = {Cambridge University Press},
   pages = {159pp},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2936,
   author = {Armitage, James M. and Quinn, Cristina L. and Wania, Frank},
   title = {Global climate change and contaminants—an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic},
   journal = {Journal of Environmental Monitoring},
   volume = {13},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1532-1546},
   abstract = {This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.},
   ISSN = {1464-0325},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1701,
   author = {Arneborg, Lars},
   title = {Comment on “Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea” by R. Hordoir, L. Axell, U. Löptien, H. Dietze, and I. Kuznetsov},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {121},
   number = {3},
   pages = {2035-2040},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011451},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1702,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J and Slomp, Caroline P and Stadmark, Johanna and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Efficiency of the coastal filter: Nitrogen and phosphorus removal in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {62},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {S222-S238},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10644},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3331,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Saikku, Laura},
   title = {Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {39},
   number = {2},
   pages = {126-135},
   abstract = {Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year−1 and 115 t P year−1. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1689,
   author = {Assel, Raymond and Cronk, Kevin and Norton, David},
   title = {Recent trends in Laurentian Great Lakes ice cover},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {57},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {185-204},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022140604052},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2739,
   author = {Athanasiadis, Panos J. and Yeager, Stephen and Kwon, Young-Oh and Bellucci, Alessio and Smith, David W. and Tibaldi, Stefano},
   title = {Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO},
   journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20},
   abstract = {Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.},
   ISSN = {2397-3722},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3221,
   author = {Authier, Matthieu and Brasseur, Sophie and Carlén, Ida and Carlström, Julia and Evans, Peter and Fernández, Ruth and Galatius, Anders and Gilles, Anita and Hammond, Philip and Kaminska, Katarzyna and Kavanagh, Ailbhe and Kingston, Allen and Königson, Sara and Koschinski, Sven and Larsen, Finn and Macleod, Kelly and Mugerza, Estanis and Müller, Miriam and Ojaveer, Henn and Papaioannou, Eva and Peltier, Hélène and Pierce, Graham and Pusch, Christian and Ridoux, Vincent and Santos, Begona and Sigurðsson, Guðjón and Tachoires, Stéphanie and Vinther, Morten and Woźniczka, Adam},
   title = {Workshop on fisheries Emergency Measures to minimize BYCatch of short-beaked common dolphins in the Bay of Biscay and harbour porpoise in the Baltic Sea (WKEMBYC)},
   note = {2020-12-12T21:37:03.959+01:00},
   month = {2020},
   keywords = {Ecology
Ekologi},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:nrm:diva-3949},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3371,
   author = {Averkiev, Alexander S. and Klevannyy, Konstantin A.},
   title = {A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {30},
   number = {6},
   pages = {707-714},
   abstract = {Modelling of water levels in the Baltic Sea, aimed at evaluating the influence of the trajectories and propagation speeds of a deep idealized cyclone on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, is done using the hydrodynamic model BSM6. An analytical expression for determination of the atmospheric pressure in this cyclone takes into account the existence of the cold front and the time evolution of the cyclone intensity. The empirical parameters in this relation are based on those of the deep cyclone ‘Erwin’ which passed over the Baltic Sea region in 2005.},
   keywords = {Storm surges
Extreme sea levels
Deep cyclones
Numerical modelling
Baltic Sea model
Gulf of Finland},
   ISSN = {0278-4343},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434309003082},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3369,
   author = {Axell, Lars and Liu, Ye and Jandt, Simon and Lorkowski, Ina and Lindenthal, Anja and Verjovkina, Svetlana and Schwichtenberg, Fabian},
   title = {Baltic Sea Production Centre BALTICSEA_REANALYSIS_BIO_003_012},
   institution = {COPERNICUS Marine Environment Monitoring Service, Issue 2.5},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00012},
   url = {https://cmems-resources.cls.fr/documents/QUID/CMEMS-BAL-QUID-003-012.pdf},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@book{RN1854,
   author = {BACC Author Team},
   title = {Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin},
   publisher = {Springer Science & Business Media},
   address = {Berlin, Heidelberg},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   pages = {473},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN1688,
   author = {BACC II Author Team},
   title = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   note = {read},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2827,
   author = {Bailey, Sarah A. and Brown, Lyndsay and Campbell, Marnie L. and Canning-Clode, João and Carlton, James T. and Castro, Nuno and Chainho, Paula and Chan, Farrah T. and Creed, Joel C. and Curd, Amelia and Darling, John and Fofonoff, Paul and Galil, Bella S. and Hewitt, Chad L. and Inglis, Graeme J. and Keith, Inti and Mandrak, Nicholas E. and Marchini, Agnese and McKenzie, Cynthia H. and Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna and Ojaveer, Henn and Pires-Teixeira, Larissa M. and Robinson, Tamara B. and Ruiz, Gregory M. and Seaward, Kimberley and Schwindt, Evangelina and Son, Mikhail O. and Therriault, Thomas W. and Zhan, Aibin},
   title = {Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective},
   journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
   volume = {26},
   number = {12},
   pages = {1780-1797},
   abstract = {Abstract Aim The introduction of aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) has become a major driver for global changes in species biogeography. We examined spatial patterns and temporal trends of ANS detections since 1965 to inform conservation policy and management. Location Global. Methods We assembled an extensive dataset of first records of detection of ANS (1965–2015) across 49 aquatic ecosystems, including the (a) year of first collection, (b) population status and (c) potential pathway(s) of introduction. Data were analysed at global and regional levels to assess patterns of detection rate, richness and transport pathways. Results An annual mean of 43 (±16 SD) primary detections of ANS occurred—one new detection every 8.4 days for 50 years. The global rate of detections was relatively stable during 1965–1995, but increased rapidly after this time, peaking at roughly 66 primary detections per year during 2005–2010 and then declining marginally. Detection rates were variable within and across regions through time. Arthropods, molluscs and fishes were the most frequently reported ANS. Most ANS were likely introduced as stowaways in ships’ ballast water or biofouling, although direct evidence is typically absent. Main conclusions This synthesis highlights the magnitude of recent ANS detections, yet almost certainly represents an underestimate as many ANS go unreported due to limited search effort and diminishing taxonomic expertise. Temporal rates of detection are also confounded by reporting lags, likely contributing to the lower detection rate observed in recent years. There is a critical need to implement standardized, repeated methods across regions and taxa to improve the quality of global-scale comparisons and sustain core measures over longer time-scales. It will be fundamental to fill in knowledge gaps given that invasion data representing broad regions of the world's oceans are not yet readily available and to maintain knowledge pipelines for adaptive management.},
   ISSN = {1366-9516},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1867,
   author = {Baird, Mark E and Ralph, Peter J and Rizwi, Farhan and Wild-Allen, Karen and Steven, Andrew DL},
   title = {A dynamic model of the cellular carbon to chlorophyll ratio applied to a batch culture and a continental shelf ecosystem},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1215-1226},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.4.1215},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2366,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Källén, Erland},
   title = {Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1754-1759},
   abstract = {The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50382},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2365,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso and Mogensen, Kristian and Weaver, Anthony T.},
   title = {Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4},
   journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
   volume = {139},
   number = {674},
   pages = {1132-1161},
   abstract = {Abstract A new operational ocean reanalysis system (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to the present. This article describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals. ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea-level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, the interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26°N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations. ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0–700 m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of sea-surface temperature product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea-level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure.},
   ISSN = {0035-9009},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2063},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3062,
   author = {Balog, I. and Others},
   title = {A numerical approach for planning offshore wind farms from regional to local scales over the Mediterranean},
   journal = {Renewable Energy},
   volume = {85},
   pages = {395-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2726,
   author = {BALTEX},
   title = {Minutes of 17th Meeting of the BALTEX Science Steering Group held at Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poznan, Poland, 24 - 26 November 2004},
   volume = {International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 32},
   pages = {100},
   ISSN = {ISSN 1681-6471},
   DOI = {https://www.baltex-research.eu/publications/SSG_minutes_diverse/BSSG17_minutes05.pdf (last access: 15/02/2022)},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3396,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Baltic Earth Science Plan 2017},
   institution = {International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 11},
   type = {Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Germany},
   DOI = {https://www.baltic.earth/imperia/md/assets/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/ibesp_no11_feb2017_be_science_plan.pdf},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2727,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Minutes of the 11th Meeting of the Baltic Earth Science Steering Group, held at Konventum Helsingør, Denmark, 10 June 2018},
   volume = {https://baltic.earth/organisation/bessg_material/BESSG_11_Minutes_Final.pdf},
   pages = {12pp},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3289,
   author = {Baltranaitė, Eglė and Povilanskas, Ramūnas and Dučinskas, Kęstutis and Ernšteins, Raimonds and Tõnisson, Hannes},
   title = {Systems Approach to Eastern Baltic Coastal Zone Management},
   journal = {Water},
   volume = {12},
   number = {11},
   abstract = {Relying on the results of multivariate analysis of the re-analysis case studies from the BaltCoast project, specific features of integrated coastal management (ICM) approaches in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation are highlighted in this paper. Eleven Eastern Baltic ICM case studies have been re-analyzed in-depth, which was the main focus of the present paper, covering a wide range of coastal landscapes, themes, policy issues, and ICM approaches. Five principal components explaining 84.86% of the total variance of ICM factor scores have been elicited by calculating rotation sums of squared loadings: (1) Stakeholder Involvement; (2) Research Base; (3) Planning Consistency; (4) Policy Environment, and (5) Development of Plans/Strategies. A truly dedicated involvement of a wide range of stakeholders throughout all process stages showed to be critical for further successful advance of ICM processes and principles based on the systems approach in the Baltic States and the Russian Federation.},
   keywords = {Baltic states
integrated coastal management
systems approach framework
Stakeholder involvement
retrospective analysis},
   ISSN = {2073-4441},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113102},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2005,
   author = {Bamber, Jonathan L. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Kopp, Robert E. and Aspinall, Willy P. and Cooke, Roger M.},
   title = {Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {116},
   number = {23},
   pages = {11195},
   abstract = {Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195.abstract},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1594,
   author = {Barbosa, Susana M and Donner, Reik V},
   title = {Long-term changes in the seasonality of Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {68},
   number = {1},
   pages = {30540},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.30540},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2768,
   author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
   title = {Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4734-4739},
   abstract = {Previous studies have suggested that Arctic amplification has caused planetary-scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather. Here trends in the meridional extent of atmospheric waves over North America and the North Atlantic are investigated in three reanalyses, and it is demonstrated that previously reported positive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary-scale wave phase speeds are found except in October-November-December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in midlatitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50880},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2022,
   author = {Barnston, Anthony G. and Livezey, Robert E.},
   title = {Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns},
   journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
   volume = {115},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1083-1126},
   abstract = {Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns.Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atlantic Ocean (North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern); two uncorrelated phases of 3-center, approximately east–west wave trains are found over the Eurasian continent (Eurasian Type 1 and Eurasian Type 2 patterns) and North American continent (Pacific/North American and Tropical/Northern Hemisphere patterns) and a Siberian north–south dipole emerges (Northern Asian pattern).The strongest summer pattern is also the strongest winter pattern—the North Atlantic Oscillation, which systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. Another strong summer pattern, named Subtropical Zonal, is a north–south dipole of great zonal extent at low latitudes. A single-center Asian summer pattern is also found. Two other regular patterns are found during transition seasons.An evaluation of the intermonthly and interseasonal persistence of the patterns shows that many of the strong winter patterns have statistically significant persistence in the middle of their active periods, and the Subtropical Zonal summer pattern shows considerable interannual, as well as intermonthly and interseasonal persistence.The robustness of the RPCA results is examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, and by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700 mb height. (Results using 10-day means point the way to use of a larger sample without noticeably obscuring the low-frequency signal.) Moreover, the analyses are repeatedly rerun withholding different sets of years from the record, and results are objectively compared with those using the full 35-year record. The conclusion from all considerations is that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful, as well as statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with pattern choice and depiction superior to those of the teleconnection method.},
   ISSN = {0027-0644},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO},
   year = {1987},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2051,
   author = {Barregard, Lars and Molnàr, Peter and Jonson, Jan Eiof and Stockfelt, Leo},
   title = {Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions},
   journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
   volume = {16},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1954},
   ISSN = {1660-4601},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16111954},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/11/1954},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3063,
   author = {Barstad, I. and Sorteberg, A. and dos-Santos Mesquita, M.},
   title = {Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {44},
   pages = {398-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3311,
   author = {Bartels, Pia and Ask, Jenny and Andersson, Agneta and Karlsson, Jan and Giesler, Reiner},
   title = {Allochthonous Organic Matter Supports Benthic but Not Pelagic Food Webs in Shallow Coastal Ecosystems},
   journal = {Ecosystems},
   volume = {21},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1459-1470},
   abstract = {Rivers transport large amounts of allochthonous organic matter (OM) to the ocean every year, but there are still fundamental gaps in how allochthonous OM is processed in the marine environment. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of allochthonous OM (allochthony) to the biomass of benthic and pelagic consumers in a shallow coastal ecosystem in the northern Baltic Sea. We used deuterium as a tracer of allochthony and assessed both temporal variation (monthly from May to August) and spatial variation (within and outside river plume). We found variability in allochthony in space and time and across species, with overall higher values for zoobenthos (26.2 ± 20.9%) than for zooplankton (0.8 ± 0.3%). Zooplankton allochthony was highest in May and very low during the other months, likely as a result of high inputs of allochthonous OM during the spring flood that fueled the pelagic food chain for a short period. In contrast, zoobenthos allochthony was only lower in June and remained high during the other months. Allochthony of zoobenthos was generally higher close to the river mouth than outside of the river plume, whereas it did not vary spatially for zooplankton. Last, zoobenthos allochthony was higher in deeper than in shallower areas, indicating that allochthonous OM might be more important when autochthonous resources are limited. Our results suggest that climate change predictions of increasing inputs of allochthonous OM to coastal ecosystems may affect basal energy sources supporting coastal food webs.},
   ISSN = {1435-0629},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2942,
   author = {Bartnicki, J. and Semeena, V. S. and Fagerli, H.},
   title = {Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in the period 1995–2006},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {19},
   pages = {10057-10069},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10057-2011},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/10057/2011/},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inproceedings{RN3024,
   author = {Bartnicki, Jerzy},
   title = {Atmospheric Contribution to Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   series = {Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   pages = {53-57},
   abstract = {Nitrogen and phosphorus are two main nutrients responsible for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Almost all phosphorus is entering the sea via rivers, whereas 20–30% of nitrogen is deposited from the air. Therefore, there is a need for monitoring atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea. Time series of annual nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea have been calculated for the period 1995–2015 with the same version of the EMEP MSC-W model. They show significant inter annual fluctuations due to changes in meteorological conditions from one year to another. To reduce the influence of meteorological conditions on the results the so called “normalized” depositions have been also calculated. They indicate a clear decline of annual depositions of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea and only minor decline of reduced nitrogen depositions in the considered period. Emissions from Germany and Poland are the main sources contributing to deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin followed by the ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and on the North Sea. Transportation and combustion are the main emission sectors contributing to oxidised nitro-gen deposition, whereas, agriculture is the dominating emission sector contributing to reduced nitrogen deposition.},
   ISBN = {978-3-030-22055-6},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_9},
   type = {Conference Proceedings}
}

@article{RN3339,
   author = {Bartoli, Marco and Zilius, Mindaugas and Bresciani, Mariano and Vaiciute, Diana and Vybernaite-Lubiene, Irma and Petkuviene, Jolita and Giordani, Gianmarco and Daunys, Darius and Ruginis, Tomas and Benelli, Sara and Giardino, Claudia and Bukaveckas, Paul A. and Zemlys, Petras and Griniene, Evelina and Gasiunaite, Zita R. and Lesutiene, Jurate and Pilkaitytė, Renata and Baziukas-Razinkovas, Arturas},
   title = {Drivers of Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Hypertrophic Lagoon},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {5},
   number = {434},
   abstract = {The Curonian Lagoon is Europe’s largest lagoon and one of the most seriously impacted by harmful blooms of cyanobacteria. Intensive studies over the past 20 years have allowed us to identify the major drivers determining the composition and spatial extent of hyperblooms in this system. We summarize and discuss the main outcomes of these studies and provide an updated, conceptual scheme of the multiple interactions between climatic and hydrologic factors, and their influence on internal and external processes that promote cyanobacterial blooms. Retrospective analysis of remote sensed images demonstrated the variability of blooms in terms of timing, extension and intensity, suggesting that they occur only under specific circumstances. Monthly analysis of nutrient loads and stoichiometry from the principal tributary (Nemunas River) revealed large interannual differences in the delivery of key elements, but summer months were always characterized by a strong dissolved inorganic N (and Si) limitation, that depresses diatoms and favors the dominance of cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria blooms occurred during high water temperatures, long water residence time and low-wind conditions. The blooms induce transient (night-time) hypoxia, which stimulates the release of iron-bound P, producing a positive feedback for blooms of N-fixing cyanobacteria. Consumer-mediated nutrient recycling by dreissenid mussels, chironomid larvae, cyprinids and large bird colonies, may also affect P availability, but their role as drivers of cyanobacteria blooms is understudied.},
   keywords = {Curonian Lagoon,Nitrogen,Phosphorus,silica,fluxes,stoichiometry,remote sensing,Cyanobacteria},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2507,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Margonski, Piotr and Lindegren, Martin and Linderholm, Hans. W. and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Rayner, David and Wennhage, Håkan and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study},
   journal = {Fisheries Oceanography},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {258-269},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.},
   ISSN = {1054-6006},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12060},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fog.12060},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2052,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Tian, Huidong and Bergström, Ulf and Jounela, Pekka and Aro, Eero and Dieterich, Christian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Bland, Barbara and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {12},
   number = {2},
   pages = {e0172004},
   abstract = {Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1966,
   author = {Bartosova, Alena and Capell, René and Olesen, Jørgen E. and Jabloun, Mohamed and Refsgaard, Jens Christian and Donnelly, Chantal and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Pihlainen, Sampo and Zandersen, Marianne and Arheimer, Berit},
   title = {Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1325-1336},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2741,
   author = {Bartók, Blanka and Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and Lüthi, Daniel and Kotlarski, Sven and Schär, Christoph and Vautard, Robert and Jerez, Sonia and Imecs, Zoltán},
   title = {Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2665-2683},
   abstract = {The objective of the present work is to compare the projections of surface solar radiation (SSR) simulated by four regional climate models (CCLM, RCA4, WRF, ALADIN) with the respective fields of their ten driving CMIP5 global climate models. First the annual and seasonal SSR changes are examined in the regional and in the global climate models based on the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The results show significant discrepancies between the projected SSR, the multi-model mean of RCMs indicates a decrease in SSR of −0.60 W/m2 per decade over Europe, while the multi-model mean of the associated GCMs used to drive the RCMs gives an increase in SSR of +0.39 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2006–2100 over Europe. At seasonal scale the largest differences appear in spring and summer. The different signs of SSR projected changes can be interpreted as the consequence of the different behavior of cloud cover in global and regional climate models. Cloudiness shows a significant decline in GCMs with −0.24% per decade which explains the extra income in SSR, while in case of the regional models no significant changes in cloudiness can be detected. The reduction of SSR in RCMs can be attributed to increasing atmospheric absorption in line with the increase of water vapor content. Both global and regional models overestimate SSR in absolute terms as compared to surface observations, in line with an underestimation of cloud cover. Regional models further have difficulties to adequately reproduce the observed trends in SSR over the past decades.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1504,
   author = {Bastos, A and Trigo, R M and Barbosa, S M},
   title = {Discrete wavelet analysis of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Baltic Sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {65},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20077},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20077},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2053,
   author = {Bates, Amanda E. and Pecl, Gretta T. and Frusher, Stewart and Hobday, Alistair J. and Wernberg, Thomas and Smale, Dan A. and Sunday, Jennifer M. and Hill, Nicole A. and Dulvy, Nicholas K. and Colwell, Robert K. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Fulton, Elizabeth A. and Slawinski, Dirk and Feng, Ming and Edgar, Graham J. and Radford, Ben T. and Thompson, Peter A. and Watson, Reg A.},
   title = {Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems},
   journal = {Global Environmental Change},
   volume = {26},
   pages = {27-38},
   abstract = {Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.},
   keywords = {Species redistribution
Attribution
Prediction
Biogeography
Warming
Abundance–occupancy relationship},
   ISSN = {0959-3780},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000570},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1956,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Saraiva, Sofia and Tomczak, Maciej T.},
   title = {Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   pages = {1337–1349},
   abstract = {We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1884,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Meier, H. E. Markus and Casini, Michele and Hoff, Ayoe and Margoński, Piotr and Orio, Alessandro and Saraiva, Sofia and Steenbeek, Jeroen and Tomczak, Maciej T},
   title = {Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {75},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1306-1317},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy023},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3183,
   author = {Baumann, H. and Hinrichsen, H. H. and Möllmann, C. and Köster, F. W. and Malzahn, A. M. and Temming, A.},
   title = {Recruitment variability in Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) is tightly coupled to temperature and transport patterns affecting the larval and early juvenile stages},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {63},
   number = {10},
   pages = {2191-2201},
   abstract = {Recruitment patterns of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) were correlated to time series of (i) month- and depth-specific temperature conditions and (ii) larval drift patterns inferred from long-term Lagrangian particle simulations. From the latter, we derived an index that likely reflected the variable degree of annual larval transport from the central, deep spawning basins to the shallow coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The drift index was significantly (P < 0.001) correlated to sprat recruitment success and explained, together with sprat spawning stock biomass, 82% of the overall variability between 1979 and 2003. Years of strong larval displacement towards southern and eastern Baltic coasts corresponded to relative recruitment failure, while years of retention within the deep basins were associated with relative recruitment success. The strongest correlation between temperature and recruitment occurred during August in surface waters, explaining 73% of the overall variability. Together, the two approaches advocate that new year classes of Baltic sprat are predominantly composed of individuals born late in the season and are determined in strength mainly by processes acting during the late larval and early juvenile stages. However, prior to be included in recruitment predictions, the biological mechanisms underlying these strong correlations may need to be better resolved.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3121,
   author = {Beaugrand, Grégory},
   title = {The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {60},
   number = {2},
   pages = {245-262},
   abstract = {This paper focuses on the ecosystem regime shift in the North Sea that occurred during the period 1982–1988. The evidence for the change is seen from individual species to key ecosystem parameters such as diversity and from phytoplankton to fish. Although many biological/ecosystem parameters and individual species exhibited a stepwise change during the period 1983–1988, some indicators show no evidence of change. The cause of the regime shift is likely to be related to pronounced changes in large-scale hydro-meteorological forcing. This involved activating of complex intermediate physical mechanisms which explains why the exact timing of the shift can vary from 1982 to 1988 (centred around two periods: 1982–1985 and 1987–1988) according to the species or taxonomic group. Increased sea surface temperature and possibly change in wind intensity and direction at the end of the 1970s in the west European basin triggered a change in the location of an oceanic biogeographical boundary along the European continental shelf. This affected both the stable and substrate biotope components of North Sea marine ecosystems (i.e. components related to the water masses and components which are geographically stable) circa 1984. Large-scale hydro-climatic forcing also modified local hydro-meteorological parameters around the North Sea after 1987 affecting the stable biotope components of North Sea ecosystems. Problems related to the detection and quantification of an ecosystem regime shift are discussed.},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.018},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661104000308},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1686,
   author = {Belkin, Igor M},
   title = {Rapid warming of large marine ecosystems},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1-4},
   pages = {207-213},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.011},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3343,
   author = {Benassai, G. and Mariani, P. and Stenberg, C. and Christoffersen, M.},
   title = {A Sustainability Index of potential co-location of offshore wind farms and open water aquaculture},
   journal = {Ocean & Coastal Management},
   volume = {95},
   pages = {213-218},
   abstract = {This paper presents the definition of a Sustainability Index for the co-location in marine areas of offshore wind farms and aquaculture plans. The development of the index is focused on the application of MCE technique based on physical constraints and biological parameters that are directly linked to the primary production. The relevant physical factors considered are wind velocity and depth range (which directly governs the choice of the site for energy production and for offshore technology), the relevant biological parameters are SST, SST anomaly and CHL-a concentration (as a measurement of the productivity). The further development of the technique, already used in open water aquaculture localization, consists in converting raw data into sustainability scores, which have been combined using additive models, in order to define the overall sustainability. The study area used to implement the computation of the Sustainability Index (SI) was identified in the Danish portion of the Baltic Sea and in the western part of the Danish North Sea. Results on the spatial distribution of the SI underline different responses as a function of the physical and biological main influencing parameters.},
   ISSN = {0964-5691},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.04.007},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096456911400101X},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1967,
   author = {Bendtsen, Jørgen and Hansen, Jørgen L. S.},
   title = {Effects of global warming on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea–North Sea transition zone},
   journal = {Ecological Modelling},
   volume = {264},
   pages = {17-26},
   abstract = {Hypoxic conditions (O2<2mgL−1) are frequently observed in the relatively shallow and stratified North Sea–Baltic Sea transition zone. Inter-annual variability with more extensive hypoxia has been observed in years with calm weather conditions during late summer. A future warmer climate may increase hypoxia in the area due to combined effects from decreased oxygen solubility and increased respiration rates. Feedbacks from climate change can, therefore, amplify negative effects from eutrophication, such as hypoxia. Here we apply a high resolution three-dimensional ocean circulation model with a simple pelagic and benthic oxygen consumption model (OXYCON), based on the seasonal organic carbon budget in the area, and demonstrate that the model is able to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of the observed oxygen concentration in the bottom waters during a three-year period. The potential impact from a warmer climate was analysed in a sensitivity study with a 3°C warmer climate, and showed a significant increase of hypoxic bottom areas compared to present day conditions. The relative role of increased respiration and decreased oxygen solubility in the inflowing bottom water and at the surface was analysed and it was found that decreased solubility accounted for about 25% of the simulated decrease in bottom water oxygen concentration in the centre of the area in the early fall. A sensitivity study showed that the simulated effect from a 3°C temperature increase on the bottom water oxygen concentration could be compensated by a 30% reduction in the export production. The model simulations of the North Sea–Baltic Sea transition zone indicate a significant expansion of the hypoxic areas and a lengthening of the hypoxic period under a warmer climate.},
   keywords = {Hypoxia
Climate change
Baltic Sea
Respiration},
   ISSN = {0304-3800},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.018},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380012002906},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3001,
   author = {Benestad, R. E.},
   title = {How often can we expect a record event?},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {25},
   number = {1},
   pages = {3-13},
   note = {10.3354/cr025003},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: This study applies a simple framework for analysing the incidence of record events. A test of this method on the global mean temperature yields results consistent with a global warming, where record-warm events are more frequent than for a stationary series. The record event analysis suggests that the number of record-warm monthly global mean temperatures is higher than expected, and that the number of record events in the absolute monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries is slightly higher than expected from a null hypothesis of a stationary behaviour. Because the different station series are not strictly independent, it is difficult to resolve whether there is a significant trend in the warmest absolute monthly minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries. The behaviour of the maximum monthly 24 h precipitation is not distinguishable from the null hypothesis that the series consists of independent and identically distributed random variables.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v25/n1/p3-13/},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1703,
   author = {Bengtsson, Lennart},
   title = {The global atmospheric water cycle},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {5},
   number = {2},
   pages = {25202},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025002},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2962,
   author = {Bengtsson, Lennart and Hodges, Kevin I. and Keenlyside, Noel},
   title = {Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {22},
   number = {9},
   pages = {2276-2301},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2678.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/9/2008jcli2678.1.xml},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2412,
   author = {Beranová, Romana and Huth, Radan},
   title = {Time variations of the effects of circulation variability modes on European temperature and precipitation in winter},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {28},
   number = {2},
   pages = {139-158},
   abstract = {Abstract Five modes of variability are identified in winter monthly mean 500 hPa heights over the Euro-Atlantic sector by rotated principal component analysis. Time variations of the effects of the modes on temperature and precipitation at more than 100 European stations are examined for period 1958–1998. Time variations are investigated by running correlations with the 15-year window. At most of the stations, the correlations with circulation patterns vary considerably in time, both for temperature and precipitation. The spatial structure of the variations is assessed by cluster analysis of time variations of correlations. The groupings together with changes in the intensity and position of the circulation modes suggest possible mechanisms of the time variations in the circulation-to-climate effects. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1516},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1516},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2508,
   author = {Bergen, Benjamin and Endres, Sonja and Engel, Anja and Zark, Maren and Dittmar, Thorsten and Sommer, Ulrich and Jürgens, Klaus},
   title = {Acidification and warming affect prominent bacteria in two seasonal phytoplankton bloom mesocosms},
   journal = {Environmental Microbiology},
   volume = {18},
   number = {12},
   pages = {4579-4595},
   abstract = {Summary In contrast to clear stimulatory effects of rising temperature, recent studies of the effects of CO2 on planktonic bacteria have reported conflicting results. To better understand the potential impact of predicted climate scenarios on the development and performance of bacterial communities, we performed bifactorial mesocosm experiments (pCO2 and temperature) with Baltic Sea water, during a diatom dominated bloom in autumn and a mixed phytoplankton bloom in summer. The development of bacterial community composition (BCC) followed well-known algal bloom dynamics. A principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) of bacterial OTUs (operational taxonomic units) revealed that phytoplankton succession and temperature were the major variables structuring the bacterial community whereas the impact of pCO2 was weak. Prokaryotic abundance and carbon production, and organic matter concentration and composition were partly affected by temperature but not by increased pCO2. However, pCO2 did have significant and potentially direct effects on the relative abundance of several dominant OTUs; in some cases, these effects were accompanied by an antagonistic impact of temperature. Our results suggest the necessity of high-resolution BCC analyses and statistical analyses at the OTU level to detect the strong impact of CO2 on specific bacterial groups, which in turn might also influence specific organic matter degradation processes.},
   ISSN = {1462-2912},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.13549},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1462-2920.13549},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3205,
   author = {Bergenius, Mikaela AJ and Gårdmark, Anna and Ustups, Didzis and Kaljuste, Olavi and Aho, Teija},
   title = {Fishing or the environment–what regulates recruitment of an exploited marginal vendace (Coregonus albula (L.)) population?},
   journal = {Advances in Limnology},
   volume = {64},
   pages = {57-70},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1127/1612-166X/2013/0064-0029},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2509,
   author = {Berglund, Johnny and Müren, Umut and Båmstedt, Ulf and Andersson, Agneta},
   title = {Efficiency of a phytoplankton-based and a bacterial-based food web in a pelagic marine system},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {52},
   number = {1},
   pages = {121-131},
   abstract = {The food web efficiency in two contrasting food webs, one phytoplankton based and one bacteria based, was studied in a mesocosm experiment using seawater from the northern Baltic Sea. Organisms included in the experiment were bacteria, phytoplankton, protozoa, and mesozooplankton (copepods). A phytoplankton-based food web was generated by incubating at a high light level with the addition of nitrogen and phosphorus (NP). A bacteria-based food web was created by adding carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (CNP) and incubating at a lower light level. In the CNP treatment bacteria dominated the productivity (91%), while in the NP treatment phytoplankton were dominant producers (74%). The phytoplankton community in the NP treatment was dominated by autotrophic nanoflagellates. The food web efficiency, defined as mesozooplankton productivity per basal productivity (phytoplankton + bacteria), was 22% in the phytoplankton-based food web and 2% in the bacteria-based food web. This discrepancy could be explained by 1-2 extra trophic levels in the bacteria-based food web where carbon passed through flagellates and ciliates before reaching mesozooplankton, while in the phytoplankton-based food web there was a direct pathway from phytoplankton to mesozooplankton. The results were supported by stable isotope analysis of mesozooplankton. We propose that climate change, with increased precipitation and river runoff in the Baltic Sea, might favor a bacteria-based food web and thereby reduce pelagic productivity at higher trophic levels.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0121},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0121},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2510,
   author = {Bergström, L. and Heikinheimo, O. and Svirgsden, R. and Kruze, E. and Ložys, L. and Lappalainen, A. and Saks, L. and Minde, A. and Dainys, J. and Jakubavičiūtė, E. and Ådjers, K. and Olsson, J.},
   title = {Long term changes in the status of coastal fish in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {169},
   pages = {74-84},
   abstract = {Management for sustainable coastal ecosystems is benefited by coherent large scale status assessments to support the identification of measures, but these efforts may be challenged by both data availability and natural biogeographical variation. Coastal fish are a resource for commercial and recreational fisheries as well as significant contributors to coastal ecosystem functioning, by linking lower and higher levels of the food web. This study addresses long term changes in coastal fish communities at Baltic Sea regional scale, in order to identify overall trends and support the operationalization of large scale status assessments of marine biota. The study was focused on two indicators representing the functional groups of Piscivores, which are attributed to changes in food web processes including predation/fisheries, and Cyprinids, which are associated with eutrophication. The indicators were assessed for trends within ten-year intervals, using data combined from national monitoring programs during 1991–2013. The results showed predominantly declining trends in Piscivores and of increases in Cyprinids during the studied three decades, both indicative of a deteriorating status. The pattern was however reversed in the most recent years. Similar results among adjacent areas were identified in some cases, but overall differences at local scale were high, indicating strong influence of local processes. The results suggest that coordinated local measures in order to abate cumulative effects are a preferred way of improving the overall status of coastal fish. The latest studied time intervals were the overall most stable and could be considered as potential baseline years for upcoming regional assessments.},
   keywords = {Coastal fish
Environmental status
Cyprinids
Piscivores
Eutrophication
Fishing},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2015.12.013},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771415301700},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3296,
   author = {Bergström, Lena and Kautsky, Lena and Malm, Torleif and Rosenberg, Rutger and Wahlberg, Magnus and Åstrand Capetillo, Nastassja and Wilhelmsson, Dan},
   title = {Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife—a generalized impact assessment},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {9},
   number = {3},
   pages = {034012},
   abstract = {Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034012},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034012},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2415,
   author = {Bergström, Sten and Carlsson, Bengt},
   title = {River runoff to the Baltic Sea - 1950-1990},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {23},
   number = {4-5},
   pages = {280-287},
   note = {2018-01-10T20:51:45.461+01:00},
   abstract = {A database of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The database covers the period 1950-1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries. The main features of the database are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short-term variabilities are analyzed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier database by Mikulski is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921-1990. It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981-1990 was the wettest in 70 years. Wet years are also found in the 1920s. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.},
   keywords = {Natural Sciences
Naturvetenskap
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser},
   ISSN = {00447447 (ISSN)
16547209 (EISSN)},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1661},
   year = {1994},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1685,
   author = {Berliand, M E and Berliand, T G},
   title = {Measurement of the effective radiation of the Earth with varying cloud amounts},
   journal = {Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geofiz},
   volume = {1},
   pages = {64-78},
   year = {1952},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2511,
   author = {Bermúdez, R. and Winder, M. and Stuhr, A. and Almén, A. K. and Engström-Öst, J. and Riebesell, U.},
   title = {Effect of ocean acidification on the structure and fatty acid composition of a natural plankton community in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {24},
   pages = {6625-6635},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6625-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/6625/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2435,
   author = {Berndt, RK and Hein, K and Koop, B and Lunk, S},
   title = {Die Vögel der Insel Fehmarn},
   journal = {Husum Druck-u. Verlagsgesellschaft},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2512,
   author = {Berner, Christoffer and Bertos-Fortis, Mireia and Pinhassi, Jarone and Legrand, Catherine},
   title = {Response of Microbial Communities to Changing Climate Conditions During Summer Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Frontiers in Microbiology},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1562},
   abstract = {Frequencies and biomass of Baltic Sea cyanobacterial blooms are expected to be higher in future climate conditions, but also of longer duration as a result of increased sea surface temperature. Concurrently, climate predictions indicate a reduced salinity in the Baltic Sea. These climate-driven changes are expected to alter not solely the phytoplankton community but also the role of microbial communities for nutrient remineralization. Here, we present the response of summer plankton communities (filamentous cyanobacteria, picocyanobacteria, and heterotrophic bacteria) to the interplay of increasing temperature (from 16 to 18°C and 20°C) and reduced salinity (from salinity 6.9 to 5.9) in the Baltic Proper (NW Gotland Sea) using a microcosm approach. Warmer temperatures led to an earlier peak of cyanobacterial biomass, while yields were reduced. These conditions caused a decrease of nitrogen-fixers (Dolichospermum sp.) biomass, while non nitrogen-fixers (Pseudanabaena sp.) increased. Salinity reduction did not affect cyanobacterial growth nor community composition. Among heterotrophic bacteria, Actinobacteria showed preference for high temperature, while Gammaproteobacteria thrived at in situ temperature. Heterotrophic bacteria community changed drastically at lower salinity and resembled communities at high temperature. Picocyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacterial biomass had a pronounced increase associated with the decay of filamentous cyanobacteria. This suggests that shifts in community composition of heterotrophic bacteria are influenced both directly by abiotic factors (temperature and salinity) and potentially indirectly by cyanobacteria. Our findings suggest that at warmer temperature, lower yield of photosynthetic cyanobacteria combined with lower proportion of nitrogen-fixers in the community could result in lower carbon export to the marine food web with consequences for the decomposer community of heterotrophic bacteria.},
   keywords = {Microscopy,16S rRNA,Cyanobacteria,heterotrophic bacteria,biomass,Summer bloom,Baltic Sea,Climate Change},
   ISSN = {1664-302X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01562},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01562},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3107,
   author = {Bertilsson, Stefan and Stepanauskas, Ramonas and Cuadros-Hansson, Rocio and Graneli, Wilhelm and Wikner, Johan and Tranvik, Lars},
   title = {Photochemically induced changes in bioavailable carbon and nitrogen pools in a boreal watershed},
   journal = {Aquatic Microbial Ecology},
   volume = {19},
   number = {1},
   pages = {47-56},
   note = {2018-06-08T10:35:32.666+02:00},
   abstract = {In several recent studies, a net stimulation of bacterial growth has been demonstrated after exposing humic surface waters to solar radiation or artificial ultraviolet radiation. This stimulation has been attributed to a photochemical release of bioavailable carbon or nitrogen compounds (ammonium). In a synoptic experiment, we exposed 0.2 mu m filtered water from 12 different habitats in a river system, dominated by allochthonous carbon input, to mild artificial UV radiation. A significant photochemical release of carboxylic acids of low molecular weight occurred. Furthermore, the exposure increased carbon-limited bacterial yield on average by a factor of 1.7. No photochemical production of free ammonium could be detected, which was in accordance with the lack of effects of radiation on bacterial growth yield under nitrogen-limited conditions. We conclude that, in boreal systems dominated by allochthonous carbon input, photochemical production of bioavailable carbon rather than nitrogen compounds is likely to positively influence the total substrate pool available for bacterial utilization.},
   keywords = {UV radiation
DOC
DON
bacterial bioassays
carboxylic acids
ammonium
Microbiology
Mikrobiologi},
   ISSN = {09483055 (ISSN)
16161564 (EISSN)},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/ame019047},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-52548},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2264,
   author = {Bethere, L. and Sennikovs, J. and Bethers, U.},
   title = {Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {951-962},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/951/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3064,
   author = {Bichet, A. and Others},
   title = {Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land: sensitivity studies with a global climate model},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   pages = {L11701},
   DOI = {10.1029/2012GL051685},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051685},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2253,
   author = {Bierstedt, S. E. and Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E. and Ludwig, J.},
   title = {A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {3},
   pages = {639-652},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/639/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2054,
   author = {Bierstedt, Svenja E. and Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {67},
   number = {1},
   pages = {29073},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1512,
   author = {Binczewska, Anna and Moros, Matthias and Polovodova Asteman, Irina and Sławińska, Joanna and Bak, Małgorzata},
   title = {Changes in the inflow of saline water into the Bornholm Basin (SW Baltic Sea) during the past 7100 years–evidence from benthic foraminifera record},
   journal = {Boreas},
   volume = {47},
   number = {1},
   pages = {297-310},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12267},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2630,
   author = {Bindoff, N.L. and Cheung, W.W.L. and Kairo, J.G. and Arístegui, J. and Guinder, V.A. and Hallberg, R. and Hilmi, N. and Jiao, N. and Karim, M.S. and Levin, L. and O’Donoghue, S. and Cuicapusa, S.R. Purca and Rinkevich, B. and Suga, T. and Tagliabue, A. and Williamson, P.},
   title = {Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities},
   booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
   editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
   chapter = {5},
   pages = {142pp},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-5/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2367,
   author = {Bingham, R. J. and Hughes, C. W.},
   title = {Local diagnostics to estimate density-induced sea level variations over topography and along coastlines},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {117},
   number = {C01013},
   abstract = {In the open ocean, sea level variability is primarily steric in origin. Steric sea level is given by the depth integral of the density field, raising the question of how tide gauges, which are situated in very shallow water, feel deep ocean variability. Here this question is examined in a high-resolution global ocean model. By considering a series of assumptions we show that if we wish to reconstruct coastal sea level using only local density information, then the best assumption we can make is one of no horizontal pressure gradient, and therefore no geostrophic flow, at the seafloor. Coastal sea level can then be determined using density at the ocean's floor. When attempting to discriminate between mass and volume components of sea level measured by tide gauges, the conventional approach is to take steric height at deep-ocean sites close to the tide gauges as an estimate of the steric component. We find that with steric height computed at 3000 m this approach only works well in the equatorial band of the Atlantic and Pacific eastern boundaries. In most cases the steric correction can be improved by calculating steric height closer to shore, with the best results obtained in the depth range 500–1000 m. Yet, for western boundaries, large discrepancies remain. Our results therefore suggest that on time scales up to about 5 years, and perhaps longer, the presence of boundary currents means that the conventional steric correction to tide gauges may not be valid in many places.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007276},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011JC007276},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2681,
   author = {Biskaborn, Boris K. and Smith, Sharon L. and Noetzli, Jeannette and Matthes, Heidrun and Vieira, Gonçalo and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Schoeneich, Philippe and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Abramov, Andrey and Allard, Michel and Boike, Julia and Cable, William L. and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Delaloye, Reynald and Diekmann, Bernhard and Drozdov, Dmitry and Etzelmüller, Bernd and Grosse, Guido and Guglielmin, Mauro and Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas and Isaksen, Ketil and Ishikawa, Mamoru and Johansson, Margareta and Johannsson, Halldor and Joo, Anseok and Kaverin, Dmitry and Kholodov, Alexander and Konstantinov, Pavel and Kröger, Tim and Lambiel, Christophe and Lanckman, Jean-Pierre and Luo, Dongliang and Malkova, Galina and Meiklejohn, Ian and Moskalenko, Natalia and Oliva, Marc and Phillips, Marcia and Ramos, Miguel and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Sergeev, Dmitrii and Seybold, Cathy and Skryabin, Pavel and Vasiliev, Alexander and Wu, Qingbai and Yoshikawa, Kenji and Zheleznyak, Mikhail and Lantuit, Hugues},
   title = {Permafrost is warming at a global scale},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {10},
   number = {1},
   pages = {264},
   abstract = {Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1907,
   author = {Bjerknes, V.},
   title = {Das Problem der Wettervorhers-age, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der Physik},
   journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
   volume = {21},
   pages = {1-7},
   url = {https://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10019447520/en/},
   year = {1904},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2339,
   author = {Björkqvist, J. V. and Rikka, S. and Alari, V. and Männik, A. and Tuomi, L. and Pettersson, H.},
   title = {Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: A Baltic Sea case study},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
   volume = {2020},
   pages = {1-25},
   note = {NHESSD
https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2020-190/nhess-2020-190.pdf},
   ISSN = {2195-9269},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-190},
   url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2020-190/},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2338,
   author = {Björkqvist, Jan-Victor and Lukas, Ingvar and Alari, Victor and van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph and Hulst, Sander and Pettersson, Heidi and Behrens, Arno and Männik, Aarne},
   title = {Comparing a 41-year model hindcast with decades of wave measurements from the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ocean Engineering},
   volume = {152},
   pages = {57-71},
   abstract = {We present ice-free and ice-included statistics for the Baltic Sea using a wave hindcast validated against data from 13 wave measurement sites. In the hindcast 84% of wave events with a significant wave height over 7 m occurred between November and January. The effect of the ice cover is largest in the Bay of Bothnia, where the mean significant wave height is reduced by 30% when the ice time is included in the statistics. The difference between these two statistics are less than 0.05 m below a latitude of 59.5°. The seasonal ice cover also causes measurement gaps by forcing an early recovery of the instruments. Including the time not captured by the wave buoy can affect the estimates for the significant wave height by roughly 20%. The impact below the 99th percentiles are still under 5%. The significant wave height is modelled accurately even close to the shore, but the highest peak periods are underestimated in a narrow bay. Sensitivity test show that this underestimation is most likely caused by an excessive refraction towards the shore. Reconsidering the role of the spatial resolution and the physical processes affecting the low-frequency waves is suggested as a possible solution.},
   keywords = {Wave statistics
Ice-cover
SWAN
Exceedance values
Measurement gaps
Wave height},
   ISSN = {0029-8018},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.01.048},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801818300489},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2773,
   author = {Blackport, Russell and Screen, James A.},
   title = {Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves},
   journal = {Science Advances},
   volume = {6},
   number = {8},
   pages = {eaay2880},
   abstract = {Whether Arctic amplification has contributed to a wavier circulation and more frequent extreme weather in midlatitudes remains an open question. For two to three decades starting from the mid-1980s, accelerated Arctic warming and a reduced meridional near-surface temperature gradient coincided with a wavier circulation. However, waviness remains largely unchanged in model simulations featuring strong Arctic amplification. Here, we show that the previously reported trend toward a wavier circulation during autumn and winter has reversed in recent years, despite continued Arctic amplification, resulting in negligible multidecadal trends. Models capture the observed correspondence between a reduced temperature gradient and increased waviness on interannual to decadal time scales. However, model experiments in which a reduced temperature gradient is imposed do not feature increased wave amplitude. Our results strongly suggest that the observed and simulated covariability between waviness and temperature gradients on interannual to decadal time scales does not represent a forced response to Arctic amplification.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880},
   url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/8/eaay2880.abstract},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2803,
   author = {Blenckner, Thorsten and Österblom, Henrik and Larsson, Per and Andersson, Agneta and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {507-515},
   abstract = {Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2513,
   author = {Blindow, Irmgard and Dahlke, Sven and Dewart, Annika and Flügge, Sandra and Hendreschke, Marko and Kerkow, Antje and Meyer, Jutta},
   title = {Long-term and interannual changes of submerged macrophytes and their associated diaspore reservoir in a shallow southern Baltic Sea bay: influence of eutrophication and climate},
   journal = {Hydrobiologia},
   volume = {778},
   number = {1},
   pages = {121-136},
   abstract = {Long-term and interannual changes in composition of submerged vegetation, diaspore reservoir and germination were investigated in the lagoon system Westrügensche Boddenkette, Baltic Sea, north-east Germany. Comparison with a survey from 1932, showed vegetation cover is similar to the past, maintaining high cover to depths of 2.8 m despite a period of eutrophication between about 1960 and 1990. Species dominance shifted, however, from small charophytes to larger species like Potamogeton pectinatus. We explain interannual vegetation changes by weather conditions. Such changes were observed in several species, most notably in Chara canescens. This annual species seems to be favoured by extensive winter ice cover. The diaspore reservoir and the germination success of submerged macrophytes do not mirror their frequency in the vegetation, but rather reflect life form strategies. Small oospores, mainly of annual charophytes, represented >97% of all diaspores but very few Chara oospores germinated. The numerous Tolypella oospores probably originated from a discrete period with high abundance during the 1950s and have completely failed to germinate. Angiosperm seeds are larger and less frequent but have higher germination success, especially Ruppia seeds. In conclusion, charophytes are outcompeted by larger angiosperms due to the combined effect of moderate eutrophication and climate change.},
   ISSN = {1573-5117},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-016-2655-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-016-2655-4},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1704,
   author = {Block, K and Mauritsen, T},
   title = {Forcing and feedback in the MPI-ESM-LR coupled model under abruptly quadrupled CO2},
   journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
   volume = {5},
   number = {4},
   pages = {676-691},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20041},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3278,
   author = {Blomqvist, Sven and Gunnars, Anneli and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Why the limiting nutrient differs between temperate coastal seas and freshwater lakes: A matter of salt},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {49},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2236-2241},
   abstract = {Comparison of bottom-water chemistry in the marine-limnic habitat gradient shows greater phosphorus availability in marine waters, primarily because of enhanced iron sequestration by sulfide. In the oxidative hydrolysis of iron and the concomitant precipitation of phosphate, a minimum of two iron atoms are needed to precipitate one phosphate molecule (Fe : P = 2). However, dissolved Fe : P < 2 predominates in anoxic marine waters, therefore leaving some phosphate in solution after oxygenation because of a shortage of dissolved iron for phosphate coprecipitation by iron oxyhydroxide. In contrast, anoxic bottom waters in most freshwater lakes show Fe : P > 2, allowing almost complete phosphate removal on oxygenation. This difference is a consequence of the high sulfate content of sea salt, and a main reason why nitrogen normally limits net primary production in temperate coastal waters, in contrast to the predominant phosphorus limitation of near-neutral lakes.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2004.49.6.2236},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2004.49.6.2236},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3065,
   author = {Bloom, A. and Kotroni, V. and Lagouvardos, K.},
   title = {Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {8},
   pages = {1249-1257},
   DOI = {10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2661,
   author = {Blunden, Jessica and Arndt, Derek S.},
   title = {State of the Climate in 2014},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {96},
   number = {7},
   pages = {ES1-ES32},
   ISSN = {0003-0007},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2015BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/7/2015bamsstateoftheclimate.1.xml},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3041,
   author = {Blöschl, Günter and Hall, Julia and Parajka, Juraj and Perdigão, Rui A. P. and Merz, Bruno and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Čanjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Fiala, Károly and Frolova, Natalia and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gül, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnová, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Rogger, Magdalena and Salinas, José L. and Sauquet, Eric and Šraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Viglione, Alberto and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad},
   title = {Changing climate shifts timing of European floods},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {357},
   number = {6351},
   pages = {588},
   abstract = {Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima.Science, this issue p. 588 see also p. 552A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6351/588.abstract},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2821,
   author = {Bobsien, Ivo C. and Hukriede, Wolfgang and Schlamkow, Christian and Friedland, René and Dreier, Norman and Schubert, Philipp R. and Karez, Rolf and Reusch, Thorsten B. H.},
   title = {Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {50},
   number = {2},
   pages = {400-412},
   abstract = {For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01364-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01364-2},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1684,
   author = {Bodin, Svante},
   title = {A predictive numerical model of the atmospheric boundary layer based on the turbulent energy equation},
   year = {1979},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3417,
   author = {Boers, Niklas},
   title = {Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {11},
   number = {8},
   pages = {680-688},
   abstract = {The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2765,
   author = {Boland, Emma J. D. and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Shuckburgh, Emily F.},
   title = {Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {1},
   pages = {683-702},
   abstract = {The Arctic is currently undergoing drastic changes in climate, largely thought to be due to so-called ‘Arctic amplification’, whereby local feedbacks enhance global warming. Recently, a number of observational and modelling studies have questioned what the implications of this change in Arctic sea ice extent might be for weather in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and in particular whether recent extremely cold winters such as 2009/10 might be consistent with an influence from observed Arctic sea ice decline. However, the proposed mechanisms for these links have not been consistently demonstrated. In a uniquely comprehensive cross-season and cross-model study, we show that the CMIP5 models provide no support for a relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and a negative NAM, or between declining Barents–Kara sea ice and cold European temperatures. The lack of evidence for the proposed links is consistent with studies that report a low signal-to-noise ratio in these relationships. These results imply that, whilst links may exist between declining sea ice and extreme cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, the CMIP5 model experiments do not show this to be a leading order effect in the long-term. We argue that this is likely due to a combination of the limitations of the CMIP5 models and an indication of other important long-term influences on Northern Hemisphere climate.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2340,
   author = {Bonaduce, Antonio and Staneva, Joanna and Behrens, Arno and Bidlot, Jean-Raymond and Wilcke, Renate Anna Irma},
   title = {Wave Climate Change in the North Sea and Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
   volume = {7},
   number = {6},
   pages = {166},
   ISSN = {2077-1312},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7060166},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/7/6/166},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2433,
   author = {Bonan, Gordon B.},
   title = {Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey},
   journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
   volume = {47},
   number = {1},
   pages = {97-121},
   abstract = {Forests regulate climate at local, regional, and global scales through exchanges of momentum, energy, moisture, and chemicals with the atmosphere. The notion that forests affect climate is not new. A vigorous debate about deforestation, land use, and climate change occurred during the colonial settlement of North America and continued through the 1800s, but the arguments of conservationists and foresters for forest–climate influences were dismissed by meteorologists. Modern climate science shows that forests warm climate annually by decreasing surface albedo, cool climate through surface roughness and evapotranspiration and by storing carbon, and have additional effects through atmospheric chemistry. Land use is a key aspect of climate policy, but we lack comprehensive policy recommendations. Like our predecessors, we are seeking a deeper understanding of Earth's climate, its ecosystems, and our uses of those ecosystems, and just as importantly we are still searching for the right interdisciplinary framework in which to find those answers.},
   keywords = {climate change,land use,deforestation,forest–climate influences,Earth system model,geoengineering},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359},
   url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1521,
   author = {Bonsdorff, Erik},
   title = {Zoobenthic diversity-gradients in the Baltic Sea: continuous post-glacial succession in a stressed ecosystem},
   journal = {Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology},
   volume = {330},
   number = {1},
   pages = {383-391},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2005.12.041},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2876,
   author = {Bonsdorff, Erik},
   title = {Eutrophication: Early warning signals, ecosystem-level and societal responses, and ways forward},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {50},
   pages = {753–758},
   abstract = {Eutrophication, i.e. nutrient over-enrichment, has been a topic for academic and societal debate for the past five decades both on land and in aquatic systems fed by nutrients as diffuse loading from agricultural lands and as wastewater from industrial and municipal point-sources. The use of nutrients (primarily nitrogen and phosphorus) in excess became a problem with the onset of large-scale production and use of artificial fertilizers after World War II, and the effects on the aquatic environment became obvious some two to three decades later. In this Perspective, four seminal papers on eutrophication are discussed in light of the current knowledge of the problem, including future perspectives and outlooks in the light of global climate change and the demand for science-based holistic ecosystem-level policies and management options.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s1328050},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01432-7},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3256,
   author = {Borcherding, Jost},
   title = {The annual reproductive cycle of the freshwater mussel Dreissena polymorpha Pallas in lakes},
   journal = {Oecologia},
   volume = {87},
   number = {2},
   pages = {208-218},
   abstract = {The annual development of the gonads of Dreissena polymorpha was studied at three sampling sites in two lakes over 3 and 1 1/2 years, respectively. A resting stage occurred after the last spawning in summer/autumn. Oogenesis (accompanied by multiplying segmentation of the oogonia and early growth processes of its oocytes) restarted in specimens at least 1 year old at low temperatures (below 10° C) during winter and early spring. At one location (Fühlinger See) the onset of the spawning season was correlated with an increase of water temperatures above 12° C. At 2 m depth, two main spawning periods in May and August were normally recognized, the first at temperatures of 12–16° C, the second at 16–21° C. It was clearly demonstrated for the first time in Dreissena polymorpha that the oocytes became mature in successive cohorts within one gonad. A female mussel may spawn several times during the reproductive season. At 9 m depth, the onset of spawning also started at about 12° C; this occurred in late summer, with two spawning periods within 1 month at a temperature range of 12–16° C. At another location (Heider Bergsee) the size of the gonads and the oocytes was reduced during April of both years studied, when food supply was low simultaneously with rapidly rising water temperatures in this shallow lake. There was no spawning period during spring. The major spawning period was delayed until July (temperatures 19–22°C). This shows (1) the synchronizing influence of low winter temperatures on the annual reproductive cycle and (2) a temperature threshold of at least 12° C for the start of the spawning processes. The results are discussed with regard to the geographical limits of further spread of Dreissena polymorpha.},
   ISSN = {1432-1939},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00325258},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00325258},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3425,
   author = {Borchert, Leonard F. and Menary, Matthew B. and Swingedouw, Didier and Sgubin, Giovanni and Hermanson, Leon and Mignot, Juliette},
   title = {Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {48},
   number = {3},
   pages = {e2020GL091307},
   abstract = {Abstract Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091307},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL091307},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3046,
   author = {Bouwman, Lex and Goldewijk, Kees Klein and Van Der Hoek, Klaas W. and Beusen, Arthur H. W. and Van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Willems, Jaap and Rufino, Mariana C. and Stehfest, Elke},
   title = {Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {110},
   number = {52},
   pages = {20882},
   abstract = {Crop-livestock production systems are the largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Our comprehensive spatially explicit inventory of N and P budgets in livestock and crop production systems shows that in the beginning of the 20th century, nutrient budgets were either balanced or surpluses were small; between 1900 and 1950, global soil N surplus almost doubled to 36 trillion grams (Tg)·y−1 and P surplus increased by a factor of 8 to 2 Tg·y−1. Between 1950 and 2000, the global surplus increased to 138 Tg·y−1 of N and 11 Tg·y−1 of P. Most surplus N is an environmental loss; surplus P is lost by runoff or accumulates as residual soil P. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development scenario portrays a world with a further increasing global crop (+82% for 2000–2050) and livestock production (+115%); despite rapidly increasing recovery in crop (+35% N recovery and +6% P recovery) and livestock (+35% N and P recovery) production, global nutrient surpluses continue to increase (+23% N and +54% P), and in this period, surpluses also increase in Africa (+49% N and +236% P) and Latin America (+75% N and +120% P). Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows. A shift in human diets, with poultry or pork replacing beef, can reduce nutrient flows in countries with intensive ruminant production.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1012878108},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/110/52/20882.abstract},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3410,
   author = {Boé, Julien and Somot, Samuel and Corre, Lola and Nabat, Pierre},
   title = {Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {54},
   number = {5},
   pages = {2981-3002},
   abstract = {We assess the differences of future climate changes over Europe in summer as projected by state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM, from the EURO-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and by their forcing global climate models (GCM, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and study the associated physical mechanisms. We show that important discrepancies at large-scales exist between global and regional projections. The RCMs project at the end of the 21st century over a large area of Europe a summer warming 1.5–2 K colder, and a much smaller decrease of precipitation of 5%, versus 20% in their driving GCMs. The RCMs generally simulate a much smaller increase in shortwave radiation at surface, which directly impacts surface temperature. In addition to differences in cloud cover changes, the absence of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in most regional simulations plays a major role in the differences of solar radiation changes. We confirm this result with twin regional simulations with and without time-varying anthropogenic aerosols. Additionally, the RCMs simulate larger increases in evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean sea and larger increases/smaller decreases over land, which contribute to smaller changes in relative humidity, with likely impacts on clouds and precipitation changes. Several potential causes of these differences in evapotranspiration changes are discussed. Overall, this work suggests that the current EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble does not capture the upper part of the climate change uncertainty range, with important implications for impact studies and the adaptation policies that they inform.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2056,
   author = {Boé, Julien and Terray, Laurent and Moine, Marie-Pierre and Valcke, Sophie and Bellucci, Alessio and Drijfhout, Sybren and Haarsma, Rein and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcom and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Wyser, Klaus},
   title = {Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {15},
   number = {8},
   pages = {084038},
   abstract = {Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1683,
   author = {Bradtke, Katarzyna and Herman, Agnieszka and Urbanski, Jacek A},
   title = {Spatial and interannual variations of seasonal sea surface temperature patterns in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {52},
   number = {3},
   pages = {345-362},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2057,
   author = {Brandt, J. and Silver, J. D. and Christensen, J. H. and Andersen, M. S. and Bønløkke, J. H. and Sigsgaard, T. and Geels, C. and Gross, A. and Hansen, A. B. and Hansen, K. M. and Hedegaard, G. B. and Kaas, E. and Frohn, L. M.},
   title = {Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {15},
   pages = {7747-7764},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7747-2013},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/7747/2013/},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2337,
   author = {Breitburg, Denise and Levin, Lisa A. and Oschlies, Andreas and Grégoire, Marilaure and Chavez, Francisco P. and Conley, Daniel J. and Garçon, Véronique and Gilbert, Denis and Gutiérrez, Dimitri and Isensee, Kirsten and Jacinto, Gil S. and Limburg, Karin E. and Montes, Ivonne and Naqvi, S. W. A. and Pitcher, Grant C. and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Roman, Michael R. and Rose, Kenneth A. and Seibel, Brad A. and Telszewski, Maciej and Yasuhara, Moriaki and Zhang, Jing},
   title = {Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {359},
   number = {6371},
   pages = {eaam7240},
   abstract = {As plastic waste pollutes the oceans and fish stocks decline, unseen below the surface another problem grows: deoxygenation. Breitburg et al. review the evidence for the downward trajectory of oxygen levels in increasing areas of the open ocean and coastal waters. Rising nutrient loads coupled with climate change—each resulting from human activities—are changing ocean biogeochemistry and increasing oxygen consumption. This results in destabilization of sediments and fundamental shifts in the availability of key nutrients. In the short term, some compensatory effects may result in improvements in local fisheries, such as in cases where stocks are squeezed between the surface and elevated oxygen minimum zones. In the longer term, these conditions are unsustainable and may result in ecosystem collapses, which ultimately will cause societal and economic harm.Science, this issue p. eaam7240BACKGROUNDOxygen concentrations in both the open ocean and coastal waters have been declining since at least the middle of the 20th century. This oxygen loss, or deoxygenation, is one of the most important changes occurring in an ocean increasingly modified by human activities that have raised temperatures, CO2 levels, and nutrient inputs and have altered the abundances and distributions of marine species. Oxygen is fundamental to biological and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Its decline can cause major changes in ocean productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycles. Analyses of direct measurements at sites around the world indicate that oxygen-minimum zones in the open ocean have expanded by several million square kilometers and that hundreds of coastal sites now have oxygen concentrations low enough to limit the distribution and abundance of animal populations and alter the cycling of important nutrients.ADVANCESIn the open ocean, global warming, which is primarily caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, is considered the primary cause of ongoing deoxygenation. Numerical models project further oxygen declines during the 21st century, even with ambitious emission reductions. Rising global temperatures decrease oxygen solubility in water, increase the rate of oxygen consumption via respiration, and are predicted to reduce the introduction of oxygen from the atmosphere and surface waters into the ocean interior by increasing stratification and weakening ocean overturning circulation.In estuaries and other coastal systems strongly influenced by their watershed, oxygen declines have been caused by increased loadings of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and organic matter, primarily from agriculture; sewage; and the combustion of fossil fuels. In many regions, further increases in nitrogen discharges to coastal waters are projected as human populations and agricultural production rise. Climate change exacerbates oxygen decline in coastal systems through similar mechanisms as those in the open ocean, as well as by increasing nutrient delivery from watersheds that will experience increased precipitation.Expansion of low-oxygen zones can increase production of N2O, a potent greenhouse gas; reduce eukaryote biodiversity; alter the structure of food webs; and negatively affect food security and livelihoods. Both acidification and increasing temperature are mechanistically linked with the process of deoxygenation and combine with low-oxygen conditions to affect biogeochemical, physiological, and ecological processes. However, an important paradox to consider in predicting large-scale effects of future deoxygenation is that high levels of productivity in nutrient-enriched coastal systems and upwelling areas associated with oxygen-minimum zones also support some of the world’s most prolific fisheries.OUTLOOKMajor advances have been made toward understanding patterns, drivers, and consequences of ocean deoxygenation, but there is a need to improve predictions at large spatial and temporal scales important to ecosystem services provided by the ocean. Improved numerical models of oceanographic processes that control oxygen epletion and the large-scale influence of altered biogeochemical cycles are needed to better predict the magnitude and spatial patterns of deoxygenation in the open ocean, as well as feedbacks to climate. Developing and verifying the next generation of these models will require increased in situ observations and improved mechanistic understanding on a variety of scales. Models useful for managing nutrient loads can simulate oxygen loss in coastal waters with some skill, but their ability to project future oxygen loss is often hampered by insufficient data and climate model projections on drivers at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Predicting deoxygenation-induced changes in ecosystem services and human welfare requires scaling effects that are measured on individual organisms to populations, food webs, and fisheries stocks; considering combined effects of deoxygenation and other ocean stressors; and placing an increased research emphasis on developing nations. Reducing the impacts of other stressors may provide some protection to species negatively affected by low-oxygen conditions. Ultimately, though, limiting deoxygenation and its negative effects will necessitate a substantial global decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as reductions in nutrient discharges to coastal waters.Low and declining oxygen levels in the open ocean and coastal waters affect processes ranging from biogeochemistry to food security.The global map indicates coastal sites where anthropogenic nutrients have exacerbated or caused O2 declines to <2 mg liter−1 (<63 μmol liter−1) (red dots), as well as ocean oxygen-minimum zones at 300 m of depth (blue shaded regions). [Map created from data provided by R. Diaz, updated by members of the GO2NE network, and downloaded from the World Ocean Atlas 2009].Oxygen is fundamental to life. Not only is it essential for the survival of individual animals, but it regulates global cycles of major nutrients and carbon. The oxygen content of the open ocean and coastal waters has been declining for at least the past half-century, largely because of human activities that have increased global temperatures and nutrients discharged to coastal waters. These changes have accelerated consumption of oxygen by microbial respiration, reduced solubility of oxygen in water, and reduced the rate of oxygen resupply from the atmosphere to the ocean interior, with a wide range of biological and ecological consequences. Further research is needed to understand and predict long-term, global- and regional-scale oxygen changes and their effects on marine and estuarine fisheries and ecosystems.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam7240},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/359/6371/eaam7240.full.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2341,
   author = {Broman, Barry and Hammarklint, Thomas and Rannat, Kalev and Soomere, Tarmo and Valdmann, Ain},
   title = {Trends and extremes of wave fields in the north-eastern part of the Baltic Proper},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {48},
   number = {S},
   pages = {165-184},
   ISSN = {0078-3234},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2943,
   author = {Brown, J. and Ferrians Jr, O. J. and Heginbottom, J. A. and Melnikov, E. S.},
   title = {Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions},
   institution = {U.S. Geological Survey},
   number = {45},
   type = {Report},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3133/cp45},
   url = {http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cp45},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2648,
   author = {Brugger, Keith A. and Pankratz, Latysha},
   title = {Changes in the geometry and volume of rabots glaciär, sweden, 2003–2011: recent accelerated volume loss linked to more negative summer balances},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   volume = {97},
   number = {2},
   pages = {265-278},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12062},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12062},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3435,
   author = {Brunner, L. and Pendergrass, A. G. and Lehner, F. and Merrifield, A. L. and Lorenz, R. and Knutti, R.},
   title = {Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {4},
   pages = {995-1012},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/995/2020/},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2514,
   author = {Brutemark, Andreas and Engström-Öst, Jonna and Vehmaa, Anu and Gorokhova, Elena},
   title = {Growth, toxicity and oxidative stress of a cultured cyanobacterium (Dolichospermum sp.) under different CO2/pH and temperature conditions},
   journal = {Phycological Research},
   volume = {63},
   number = {1},
   pages = {56-63},
   abstract = {Summary Cyanobacteria blooms are a worldwide nuisance in fresh, brackish and marine waters. Changing environmental conditions due to upwelling, changed mixing conditions or climate change are likely to influence cyanobacteria growth and toxicity. In this study, the response of the toxic cyanobacterium Dolichospermum sp. to lowered pH (−0.4 units by adding CO2) and elevated temperature (+4°C) in an experimental set-up was examined. Growth rate, microcystin concentration and oxidative stress were measured. The growth rate and intracellular toxin concentration increased significantly as a response to temperature. When Dolichospermum was exposed to the combination of elevated temperature and high CO2/low pH, lipid peroxidation increased and antioxidant levels decreased. Microcystin concentrations were significantly correlated with growth rates. Our results show, although oxidative stress increases when exposed to a combination of high CO2/low pH and high temperature, that growth and toxicity increase at high temperature, suggesting that the cyanobacterium in general seems to be fairly tolerant to changes in pH and temperature. Further progress in identifying biological responses and predicting climate change consequences in estuaries experiencing cyanobacteria blooms requires a better understanding of the interplay between stressors such as pH and temperature.},
   ISSN = {1322-0829},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/pre.12075},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pre.12075},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2703,
   author = {Burchard, Hans and Bolding, Karsten and Feistel, Rainer and Gräwe, Ulf and Klingbeil, Knut and MacCready, Parker and Mohrholz, Volker and Umlauf, Lars and van der Lee, Eefke M.},
   title = {The Knudsen theorem and the Total Exchange Flow analysis framework applied to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {165},
   pages = {268-286},
   abstract = {The Knudsen theorem for estuarine exchange flow, based on mass conservation of water and salt, and its generalization with resolution in salinity coordinates, the Total Exchange Flow (TEF) analysis framework, are reviewed here. The former had been developed, and applied to quantify exchange flow between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, more than a century ago. In this paper, the underlying short research paper published in 1900 by Martin Knudsen, originally written in German, is translated into English. Reaching far beyond the Knudsen relation in particular, the extensive scientific achievements of Martin Knudsen on the salinity of seawater are reviewed. Using the Knudsen theorem and the TEF analysis framework, validated multi-decadal (years 1949–2013) model simulations are analyzed in terms of exchange flow through straits of the Western Baltic Sea. When comparing the model results to the original findings of Martin Knudsen, it is impressive to see how relevant his analysis of ratios of averaged inflowing and outflowing water masses still is today, given that they were based on just a few salinity observations. The model-based long-term Knudsen and TEF analyses of exchange flow in the Western Baltic Sea reproduces the Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) that have occurred since the 1950s. For the complex inflow years 2002/2003, with two baroclinic summer inflows and one barotropic winter inflow in between, the strong underestimation of the exchange flow by Eulerian analysis as compared to TEF analysis is demonstrated.},
   keywords = {Estuarine circulation
Knudsen theorem
Total Exchange Flow
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.04.004},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117303774},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1705,
   author = {Burson, Amanda and Stomp, Maayke and Akil, Larissa and Brussaard, Corina P D and Huisman, Jef},
   title = {Unbalanced reduction of nutrient loads has created an offshore gradient from phosphorus to nitrogen limitation in the North Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {61},
   number = {3},
   pages = {869-888},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10257},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3476,
   author = {Busuioc, Aristita and Chen, Deliang and Hellström, Cecilia},
   title = {Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {53},
   number = {3},
   pages = {348-367},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v53i3.12193},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v53i3.12193},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1868,
   author = {Butenschön, Momme and Clark, James and Aldridge, John N and Allen, Julian Icarus and Artioli, Yuri and Blackford, Jeremy and Bruggeman, Jorn and Cazenave, Pierre and Ciavatta, Stefano and Kay, Susan},
   title = {ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {9},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1293-1339},
   ISSN = {1991-959X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3400,
   author = {Byrne, Michael P. and O’Gorman, Paul A.},
   title = {Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {115},
   number = {19},
   pages = {4863},
   abstract = {Changes in surface temperature and humidity over land are important for climate-change impacts on humans and ecosystems. Here, we show how trends in land humidity and temperature in recent decades are linked to ocean warming. While changes in temperature and humidity have been different over land and ocean, these changes have combined to give equal changes in the moist static energy of the air over land and ocean, consistent with expectations from atmospheric dynamics. We show how this dynamical constraint, and an additional constraint based on moisture transport, may be used to predict land climate changes given the ocean warming. Land surfaces are complex to understand and model, yet our results show a remarkably simple behavior of the climate system that emerges at large scales.In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land–ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1722312115},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/115/19/4863.abstract},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3194,
   author = {Böhling, Paula and Hudd, Richard and Lehtonen, Hannu and Karås, Peter and Neuman, Erik and Thoresson, Gunnar},
   title = {Variations in Year-Class Strength of Different Perch (Perca fluviatilis) Populations in the Baltic Sea with Special Reference to Temperature and Pollution},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {48},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1181-1187},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f91-142},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f91-142 %X Variations in the year-class strength of perch (Perca fluviatilis) were analyzed among 23 populations in Baltic coastal areas distributed between 57 and 66°N using the age distribution in catches. In spite of large differences in abiotic and biotic factors, the variations in year-class strength were similar in 14 of these areas. The similarities could be attributed to large-scale weather variations influencing water temperature. Year-class strength was shown to be correlated with an index based on temperature and day length during the whole first year of life. In two of the nine deviating populations, perch nursery areas are situated in small nearshore freshwaters, where fluctuations in the water level may be more important for recruitment than temperature variations. The other deviating areas were exposed to environmental disturbances, i.e. acidification, oxygen deficits, pulp mill effluents, and thermal discharge, which obviously affected recruitment in a decisive way.},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1950,
   author = {Böning, Claus W. and Behrens, Erik and Biastoch, Arne and Getzlaff, Klaus and Bamber, Jonathan L.},
   title = {Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {9},
   pages = {523},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2740},
   url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2740#supplementary-information},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2023,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Frauen, Claudia and Neumann, Thomas and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation controls the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on North European climate},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {15},
   number = {10},
   pages = {104025},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba925},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1894,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Frauen, Claudia and Neumann, Thomas and Schimanke, Semjon and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {45},
   number = {18},
   pages = {9880-9888},
   abstract = {Abstract The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural mode of variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The AMO can be used to describe the complex interaction of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. By analyzing a preindustrial period of 850 years with a regional climate model, we show that the AMO influences the Baltic Sea. AMO-related changes of the atmospheric circulation affect precipitation over the Baltic Sea region, which leads to altered river runoff influencing the salinity of the Baltic Sea. A wavelet coherence analysis reveals a persistent coherence between AMO and salinity for the whole period of 850 years. This suggests that the Baltic Sea is under the constant influence of the AMO. Our results provide strong evidence for long-term changes in the Baltic Sea as a result of changing AMO phases.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078943},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL078943},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3455,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Gröger, Matthias and Rhein, Monika and Dutheil, Cyril and Kaiser, Jan Moritz},
   title = {Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {17},
   number = {4},
   pages = {044040},
   abstract = {The North Atlantic exhibits temperature variations on multidecadal time scales, summarized as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The AMV plays an essential role for regional climate and is a key driver of the low-frequency variability in Northern Europe. This study analyzed the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) control runs. The results showed that the physical mechanisms underlying decadal or longer time scales differ among CMIP6 models, which allowed them to be sorted into two clusters. For the first cluster, a significant coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMV was found. Further, it showed a strong negative NAO response and decreasing precipitation over Northern Europe. In contrast, the second cluster showed no significant coherence between NAO and AMV. This non-coherent cluster developed a low-pressure anomaly in the subpolar gyre and showed increasing precipitation over Europe. Differences in the northward extension of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between the two clusters were identified and linked to the different atmospheric responses. Our findings have important implications for European climate, since predictions of an increase or decrease in precipitation over Northern Europe will be model-dependent.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2059,
   author = {Bülow, Katharina and Dietrich, Christian and Elizalde, Alberto and Gröger, Matthias and Heinrich, Hartmut and Hüttl-Kabos, Sabine and Klein, Birgit and Mayer, Berhard and Meier, H. E. Markus and Mikolajewicz, Uwe},
   title = {Comparison of three regional coupled ocean atmosphere models for the North Sea under today‘s and future climate conditions (KLIWAS Schriftenreihe; KLIWAS-27/2014)},
   publisher = {Koblenz, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 265pp, URL: https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/36453/ (last access: 06.01.2022)},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2893,
   author = {Caballero-Alfonso, Angela M. and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J.},
   title = {Biogeochemical and environmental drivers of coastal hypoxia},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {141},
   pages = {190-199},
   abstract = {Recent reports have demonstrated that hypoxia is widespread in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. Here we evaluate the long-term trends of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters and of the drivers of coastal hypoxia. Eleven of the 33 sites evaluated had increasing trends of bottom water dissolved oxygen, but only the Stockholm Archipelago presents a consistent positive increasing trend in time. The vast majority of sites continue to worsen, especially along the Danish and Finnish coasts, in spite of remediation efforts to reduce nutrients. Surface temperatures were relatively comparable across the entire coastal Baltic Sea, whereas bottom water temperatures varied more strongly among sites, most likely due to differences in mixing (or stratification) and water exchange with the open Baltic Sea. Nutrient concentrations varied by factors 2–3 with highest levels at sites with restricted water exchange and higher land based nutrient loading. None of the sites were permanently stratified during the summer seasonal window although most of the sites were stratified more than half of the time. The frequency of hypoxia was also quite variable with sites in Gulf of Bothnia almost never experiencing hypoxia to enclosed sites with more than 50% chance of hypoxia. There are many factors governing hypoxia and the complexity of interacting processes in the coastal zone makes it difficult to identify specific causes. Our results demonstrate that managing nutrients can create positive feedbacks for oxygen recovery to occur. In the absence of nutrient reductions, the recovery from hypoxia in coastal marine ecosystems is unlikely.},
   keywords = {Hypoxia
Coastal zone
Baltic Sea
Nutrients},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.04.008},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314000852},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3478,
   author = {Cai, Qiongqiong and Beletsky, Dmitry and Wang, Jia and Lei, Ruibo},
   title = {Interannual and Decadal Variability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Associated with Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns during 1850–2017},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {34},
   number = {24},
   pages = {9931-9955},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0330.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/24/JCLI-D-20-0330.1.xml},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2368,
   author = {Caillat, Marjolaine and Cordes, Line and Thompson, Paul and Matthiopoulos, Jason and Smout, Sophie},
   title = {Use of state-space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {29},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {101-118},
   abstract = {Abstract Identifying and understanding ecological drivers that influence wildlife populations is challenging but critical for conservation. This typically requires integrating long-term data on both the population and potential drivers within statistical models that are suitable for analysing these complex relationships. State-space models offer one method for integrating such data. Once implemented within a Bayesian framework, these analyses can control for multifactorial influences on populations, allowing one to extract otherwise undetectable correlations between the environment and the underlying, inferred demography. In the Moray Firth, Scotland, harbour seals have been counted annually for 30 years (1988–2018). A Bayesian state-space model was used to explore whether patterns in vital rates were correlated to changes in prey abundance, inter-specific competition (grey seal abundance), environmental variables [the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea-surface temperature], or level of biotoxins (saxitoxin and domoic acid) in the Moray Firth waters. The credible interval of the posterior distributions of three of these covariate coefficients (sandeel proxy, NAO and grey seal abundance) suggested that there was a relationship between those covariates and vital rates. Both the sandeel proxy and NAO showed a positive correlation with fecundity, whereas grey seal abundance had a negative impact on pup survival. This work demonstrates how an integrated state-space modelling approach can bring together diverse data sets and point to important interactions with prey, and with other predators in the system. This suggests that the wider-scale management of UK harbour seal populations with their contrasting temporal trends needs to account for variation in the marine ecosystem at appropriate spatial scales, in line with current policy concerning spatial planning in the marine environment.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3130},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.3130},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3201,
   author = {Candolin, Ulrika and Voigt, Heinz-Rudolf},
   title = {Population growth correlates with increased fecundity in three-spined stickleback populations in a human-disturbed environment},
   journal = {Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {82},
   number = {2},
   pages = {21},
   abstract = {Human activity is altering the dynamics of populations through effects on fecundity, mortality and migration. An increased abundance of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea has been attributed to a human-caused decline of top predators. However, recent research indicates that a top-down effect cannot fully explain the population growth, but the contribution of a bottom-up effect has not been investigated. Yet, anthropogenic eutrophication has increased algae biomass at the spawning sites of the stickleback and, thus, the abundance of benthic prey. We investigated if increased fecundity could have contributed to the population growth of the stickleback by analysing a two decade time series of stickleback abundance, fecundity, and body size at three spawning sites. The results show an increase in the proportion of gravid females in the populations, which correlates with the population growth. In particular, the proportion of gravid females late in the spawning season has increased, which indicates enhanced food intake at the sites during the spawning season. Thus, a bottom-up effect could have contributed to the growth of the populations by increasing the number of egg clutches females produce. These results stress the importance of considering both bottom-up and top-down processes when investigating the mechanisms behind human impact on population dynamics.},
   ISSN = {1420-9055},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-020-0695-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-020-0695-3},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2881,
   author = {Cardell, Maria F. and Amengual, Arnau and Romero, Romualdo and Ramis, Climent},
   title = {Future extremes of temperature and precipitation in Europe derived from a combination of dynamical and statistical approaches},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {40},
   number = {11},
   pages = {4800-4827},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   abstract = {Abstract Most of the nature-related economic costs and human losses in many regions of Europe are due to extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, persistent droughts, heavy precipitation and intense cyclonic wind-storms. Extreme precipitation events are projected by climatic models to become more intense over the continent while droughts might last longer by the end of the century. In dry regions as Southern Europe, soils are predicted to dry out as temperatures and evapotranspiration rise and rain-bearing atmospheric circulations become less frequent. Prospects on the future of climate indices linked to extreme phenomena are herein derived by using observed and model projected daily meteorological data. Specifically, E-OBS high resolution gridded datasets of observed precipitation and surface minimum and maximum temperatures have been used as the regional observed baseline. For projections, the same meteorological variables have been obtained from a set of regional climate models integrated in the European EURO-CORDEX project, considering the RCP8.5 future emissions scenario. A quantile?quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional scenarios to reduce biases in modelled extreme regimes. Results suggest that warm days will substantially increase across Europe, consistently with a decrease of cold nights. An increase in heat wave amplitude is expected across the continent, with South Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean as the most affected regions. In contrast, Northern Europe will undergo the largest decrease in cold spell magnitude. An overall rise in the frequency and volume of heavy precipitations is projected in all seasons, even if the number of dry days is also expected to increase, except in the Baltic countries. Regarding abnormally long dry periods (extreme droughts), we find that the occurrence of episodes would reduce over Europe as consequence of projected increases in length.},
   keywords = {climate change in Europe
climate indices
extreme weather events
quantile–quantile adjustment
regional climate models},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2061,
   author = {Carlén, Ida and Thomas, Len and Carlström, Julia and Amundin, Mats and Teilmann, Jonas and Tregenza, Nick and Tougaard, Jakob and Koblitz, Jens C. and Sveegaard, Signe and Wennerberg, Daniel and Loisa, Olli and Dähne, Michael and Brundiers, Katharina and Kosecka, Monika and Kyhn, Line Anker and Ljungqvist, Cinthia Tiberi and Pawliczka, Iwona and Koza, Radomil and Arciszewski, Bartlomiej and Galatius, Anders and Jabbusch, Martin and Laaksonlaita, Jussi and Niemi, Jussi and Lyytinen, Sami and Gallus, Anja and Benke, Harald and Blankett, Penina and Skóra, Krzysztof E. and Acevedo-Gutiérrez, Alejandro},
   title = {Basin-scale distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Sea provides basis for effective conservation actions},
   journal = {Biological Conservation},
   volume = {226},
   pages = {42-53},
   abstract = {Knowledge on spatial and seasonal distribution of species is crucial when designing protected areas and implementing management actions. The Baltic Proper harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population is critically endangered, and its distribution is virtually unknown. Here, we used passive acoustic monitoring and species distribution models to describe the spatial and seasonal distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Proper. Porpoise click detectors were deployed over a systematic grid of 297 stations in eight countries from April 2011 through July 2013. Generalized additive models were used to describe the monthly probability of detecting porpoise clicks as a function of spatially-referenced covariates and time. During the reproductive season, two main areas of high probability of porpoise detection were identified. One of those areas, situated on and around the offshore banks in the Baltic Proper, is clearly separated from the known distribution range of the Belt Sea population during breeding season, suggesting this is an important breeding ground for the Baltic Proper population. We commend the designation of this area as a marine protected area and recommend Baltic Sea countries to also protect areas in the southern Baltic Sea and the Hanö Bight where additional important harbour porpoise habitats were identified. Further conservation measures should be carried out based on analyses of overlap between harbour porpoise distribution and potentially harmful anthropogenic activities. Our study shows that large-scale systematic monitoring using novel techniques can give important insights on the distribution of low-density populations, and that international cooperation is pivotal when studying transnationally migratory species.},
   keywords = {Spatial distribution
Passive acoustic monitoring
Population structure
Harbour porpoise
Marine protected areas
Biodiversity conservation},
   ISSN = {0006-3207},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.06.031},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320717307929},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1706,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Andersen, Jesper H and Gustafsson, Bo G and Conley, Daniel J},
   title = {Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {111},
   pages = {5628-5633},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323156111},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2369,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Chierici, Melissa and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Gustafsson, Erik},
   title = {Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Estuarine and Coastal Carbonate Systems},
   journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
   volume = {32},
   number = {3},
   pages = {497-513},
   abstract = {Abstract Coastal pH and total alkalinity are regulated by a diverse range of local processes superimposed on global trends of warming and ocean acidification, yet few studies have investigated the relative importance of different processes for coastal acidification. We describe long-term (1972–2016) and seasonal trends in the carbonate system of three Danish coastal systems demonstrating that hydrological modification, changes in nutrient inputs from land, and presence/absence of calcifiers can drastically alter carbonate chemistry. Total alkalinity was mainly governed by conservative mixing of freshwater (0.73–5.17 mmol kg−1) with outer boundary concentrations (~2–2.4 mmol kg−1), modulated seasonally and spatially (~0.1–0.2 mmol kg−1) by calcifiers. Nitrate assimilation by primary production, denitrification, and sulfate reduction increased total alkalinity by almost 0.6 mmol kg−1 in the most eutrophic system during a period without calcifiers. Trends in pH ranged from −0.0088 year−1 to 0.021 year−1, the more extreme of these mainly driven by salinity changes in a sluice-controlled lagoon. Temperature increased 0.05°C yr−1 across all three systems, which directly accounted for a pH decrease of 0.0008 year−1. Accounting for mixing, salinity, and temperature effects on dissociation and solubility constants, the resulting pH decline (0.0040 year−1) was about twice the ocean trend, emphasizing the effect of nutrient management on primary production and coastal acidification. Coastal pCO2 increased ~4 times more rapidly than ocean rates, enhancing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Indeed, coastal systems undergo more drastic changes than the ocean and coastal acidification trends are substantially enhanced from nutrient reductions to address coastal eutrophication.},
   ISSN = {0886-6236},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gb005781},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GB005781},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1531,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J and Bonsdorff, Erik and Gustafsson, Bo G and Hietanen, Susanna and Janas, Urzsula and Jilbert, Tom and Maximov, Alexey and Norkko, Alf and Norkko, Joanna and Reed, Daniel C and Slomp, Caroline P and Timmermann, Karen and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical cycles, benthic fauna, and management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {43},
   number = {1},
   pages = {26-36},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0474-7},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2996,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J.},
   title = {Baltic Sea Hypoxia Takes Many Shapes and Sizes},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography Bulletin},
   volume = {28},
   number = {4},
   pages = {125-129},
   abstract = {Abstract The Baltic Sea is naturally prone to hypoxia, but the frequency and extent have increased multifold over the last century. Hypoxia manifests itself as perennial in the open central part, seasonal at the entrance area, and episodic at many coastal sites, and the expression of hypoxia is largely driven by differences in bottom water residence times and stratification patterns. Enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere are the main drivers of expanding hypoxia in the Baltic Sea although deoxygenation has also been exacerbated by increasing temperature over the past 3–4 decades. Hypoxia severely influences ecosystem functions such as fish production through reduced trophic efficiency and harmful cyanobacteria blooms sustained by phosphorus release from sediments. Nutrient inputs from land have created the largest man-made hypoxic area in the world and the only viable long-term solution to mitigation is to continue efforts to reduce nutrient loading.},
   ISSN = {1539-607X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lob.10350},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/lob.10350},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1972,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J. and Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Asmala, Eero and Bonsdorff, Erik and Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Gustafsson, Camilla and Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina and Janas, Urzsula and Norkko, Alf and Slomp, Caroline and Villnäs, Anna and Voss, Maren and Zilius, Mindaugas},
   title = {Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {49},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1194-1210},
   abstract = {The coastal zone of the Baltic Sea is diverse with strong regional differences in the physico-chemical setting. This diversity is also reflected in the importance of different biogeochemical processes altering nutrient and organic matter fluxes on the passage from land to sea. This review investigates the most important processes for removal of nutrients and organic matter, and the factors that regulate the efficiency of the coastal filter. Nitrogen removal through denitrification is high in lagoons receiving large inputs of nitrate and organic matter. Phosphorus burial is high in archipelagos with substantial sedimentation, but the stability of different burial forms varies across the Baltic Sea. Organic matter processes are tightly linked to the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Moreover, these processes are strongly modulated depending on composition of vegetation and fauna. Managing coastal ecosystems to improve the effectiveness of the coastal filter can reduce eutrophication in the open Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01282-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01282-y},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1968,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Duarte, Carlos M.},
   title = {Drivers of pH Variability in Coastal Ecosystems},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {53},
   number = {8},
   pages = {4020-4029},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03655},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03655},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3277,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Henriksen, Peter and Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina},
   title = {Summer algal blooms in shallow estuaries: Definition, mechanisms, and link to eutrophication},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {52},
   number = {1},
   pages = {370-384},
   abstract = {We propose a definition for identification of blooms and use this definition to investigate the underlying mechanisms of summer blooms and their link to nutrient enrichment. Blooms were defined as chlorophyll a observations deviating significantly from a normal seasonal cycle; the frequency and magnitude of these deviating observations characterized bloom frequency and intensity. The definition was applied to a large monitoring data set from five estuaries in Denmark with at least biweekly sampling. Four mechanisms with links to nutrient enrichment were identified as sources of summer blooms: (1) advection from biomass-rich inner estuary, (2) resuspension of nutrients and algae from sediments, (3) nutrient releases from sediments during hypoxic conditions, and (4) decoupling of benthic grazers. Summer blooms were mostly dominated by diatoms, and in 33% of the bloom samples the dominating species was also dominant prior to the bloom. Only four species (Cerataulina pelagica, Chaetoceros socialis/radians, Prorocentrum micans, and Prorocentrum minimum) typically (>50% of blooms) increased their biomass proportion during bloom initiations. Bloom frequency and intensity decreased from 1989 to 2004, corresponding to decreases in nutrient inputs and concentrations, but only bloom frequency could be directly linked to the actual total nitrogen concentrations, whereas bloom intensities depended on site-specific features, particularly a threshold response for stations exposed to hypoxia. Bloom frequency has increased over longer timescales in response to nutrient enrichment.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0370},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0370},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2955,
   author = {Casanueva, A. and Rodríguez-Puebla, C. and Frías, M. D. and González-Reviriego, N.},
   title = {Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {18},
   number = {2},
   pages = {709-725},
   note = {HESS},
   ISSN = {1607-7938},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014},
   url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/709/2014/},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3180,
   author = {Casini, M. and Bartolino, V. and Molinero, J. C. and Kornilovs, G.},
   title = {Linking fisheries, trophic interactions and climate: threshold dynamics drive herring Clupea harengus growth in the central Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {413},
   pages = {241-252},
   note = {10.3354/meps08592},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: How multiple stressors influence fish stock dynamics is a crucial question in ecology in general and in fisheries science in particular. Using time-series covering a 30 yr period, we show that the body growth of the central Baltic Sea herring <i>Clupea harengus</i>, <i></i>both in terms of condition and weight-at-age (WAA), has shifted from being mainly driven by hydro-climatic forces to an inter-specific density-dependent control. The shift in the mechanisms of regulation of herring growth is triggered by the abundance of sprat, the main food competitor for herring. Abundances of sprat above the threshold of ~18 × 10<sup>10</sup> ind. decouple herring growth from hydro-climatic factors (i.e. salinity), and become the main driver of herring growth variations. At high sprat densities, herring growth is considerably lower than at low sprat levels, regardless of the salinity conditions, indicative of hysteresis in the response of herring growth to salinity changes. The threshold dynamic accurately explains the changes in herring growth during the past 3 decades and in turn contributes to elucidate the parallel drastic drop in herring spawning stock biomass. Studying the interplay between different stressors can provide fundamental information for the management of exploited resources. The management of the central Baltic herring stock should be adaptive and take into consideration the dual response of herring growth to hydro-climatic forces and food-web structure for a sound ecosystem approach to fisheries.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v413/p241-252/},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3128,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Hjelm, Joakim and Molinero, Juan-Carlos and Lövgren, Johan and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Bartolino, Valerio and Belgrano, Andrea and Kornilovs, Georgs},
   title = {Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {106},
   number = {1},
   pages = {197},
   abstract = {Fisheries can have a large impact on marine ecosystems, because the effects of removing large predatory fish may cascade down the food web. The implications of these cascading processes on system functioning and resilience remain a source of intense scientific debate. By using field data covering a 30-year period, we show for the Baltic Sea that the underlying mechanisms of trophic cascades produced a shift in ecosystem functioning after the collapse of the top predator cod. We identified an ecological threshold, corresponding to a planktivore abundance of ≈17 × 1010 individuals, that separates 2 ecosystem configurations in which zooplankton dynamics are driven by either hydroclimatic forces or predation pressure. Abundances of the planktivore sprat above the threshold decouple zooplankton dynamics from hydrological circumstances. The current strong regulation by sprat of the feeding resources for larval cod may hinder cod recovery and the return of the ecosystem to a prior state. This calls for the inclusion of a food web perspective in management decisions.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806649105},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/1/197.abstract},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2931,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Kornilovs, Georgs and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Möllmann, Christian and Grygiel, Wlodzimierz and Jonsson, Patrik and Raid, Tiit and Flinkman, Juha and Feldman, Valeriy},
   title = {Spatial and temporal density dependence regulates the condition of central Baltic Sea clupeids: compelling evidence using an extensive international acoustic survey},
   journal = {Population Ecology},
   volume = {53},
   number = {4},
   pages = {511-523},
   abstract = {Abstract For the first time an international acoustic survey dataset covering three decades was used to investigate the factors shaping the spatial and temporal patterns in the condition of sprat and herring in the Baltic Proper. Generalized additive models showed that the spatial and temporal fluctuations in sprat density have been the main drivers of the spatio-temporal changes of both sprat and herring condition, evidencing intra- and inter-specific density dependence mediated by the size and distribution of the sprat population. Salinity was also an important predictor of herring condition, whereas temperature explained only a minor part of sprat model deviance. Herring density was an additional albeit weak significant predictor for herring condition, evidencing also intra-specific density dependence within the herring population. For both species, condition was high and similar in all areas of the Baltic Proper until the early 1990s, coincident with low sprat densities. Afterwards, a drop in condition occurred and a clear south–north pattern emerged. The drop in condition after the early 1990s was stronger in the northern areas, where sprat population increased the most. We suggest that the increase in sprat density in the northern areas, and the consequent spatial differentiation in clupeid condition, have been triggered by the almost total disappearance of the predator cod from the northern Baltic Proper. This study provides a step forward in understanding clupeid condition in the Baltic Sea, presenting evidence that density-dependent mechanisms also operate at the spatial scale within stock units. This stresses the importance of spatio-temporal considerations in the management of exploited fish.},
   ISSN = {1438-3896},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-011-0269-2},
   url = {https://esj-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1007/s10144-011-0269-2},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2515,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Käll, Filip and Hansson, Martin and Plikshs, Maris and Baranova, Tatjana and Karlsson, Olle and Lundström, Karl and Neuenfeldt, Stefan and Gårdmark, Anna and Hjelm, Joakim},
   title = {Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator},
   journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {10},
   pages = {160416},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160416},
   url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rsos.160416 %X Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1682,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Lövgren, Johan and Hjelm, Joakim and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Molinero, Juan-Carlos and Kornilovs, Georgs},
   title = {Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem},
   journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
   volume = {275},
   number = {1644},
   pages = {1793-1801},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1752},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2769,
   author = {Cattiaux, J. and Cassou, C.},
   title = {Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime Northern Annular Mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {14},
   pages = {3682-3687},
   abstract = {A crucial challenge in climate studies is to determine how warming trends due to anthropogenic forcing may affect the natural modes of atmospheric variability. In the northern extratropics, the leading pattern of atmospheric dynamics is known as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), often computed as the first empirical orthogonal function of sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height at 500 mbar (Z500). Here we compare wintertime NAM changes estimated from previous (third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)) versus ongoing (fifth phase (CMIP5)) generations of multimodel projections for the 21st century, under similar emission scenarios (A2 scenario versus 8.5 W.m−2Representative Concentration Pathway). CMIP3 projections exhibited a positive NAM trend, albeit this response differed between SLP and Z500, whereas CMIP5 projections rather reveal a negative trend, especially for Z500. We show that the CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies are mostly explained in early winter by the local consequence of faster Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP5 and in late winter by the remote influence through teleconnection of stronger warming in the western tropical Pacific. The attribution of CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies to the differences in emission scenarios is assessed by investigating NAM responses in common 1% CO2idealized experiments.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50643},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50643},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2063,
   author = {Cattiaux, Julien and Douville, Hervé and Peings, Yannick},
   title = {European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {41},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2889-2907},
   abstract = {European temperatures and their projected changes under the 8.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario are evaluated in an ensemble of 33 global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Respective contributions of large-scale dynamics and local processes to both biases and changes in temperatures, and to the inter-model spread, are then investigated from a recently proposed methodology based on weather regimes. On average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe. They overestimate summer temperatures in Central Europe, in association with a greater diurnal range than observed. The projected temperature increase is stronger in summer than in winter, with the highest summer warming occurring over Mediterranean regions. Links between biases and sensitivities are evidenced in winter, suggesting a potential influence of snow cover biases on the projected surface warming. A brief analysis of daily temperature extremes suggests that the intra-seasonal variability is projected to decrease (slightly increase) in winter (summer). Then, in order to understand model discrepancies in both present-day and future climates, we disentangle effects of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional physical processes. In particular, in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North-Atlantic jet stream than observed and, in contrast with CMIP3 results, the majority of them suggests an increased frequency of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation under future warming. While large-scale circulation only has a minor contribution to ensemble-mean biases or changes, which are primarily dominated by non-dynamical processes, it substantially affects the inter-model spread. Finally, other sources of uncertainties, including the North-Atlantic warming and local radiative feedbacks related to snow cover and clouds, are briefly discussed.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN1681,
   author = {CDO},
   title = {Climate Data Operators. Available at: http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/cdo},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Statute}
}

@article{RN2993,
   author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
   title = {Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review},
   journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
   volume = {1},
   number = {2},
   pages = {94-102},
   abstract = {We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.},
   ISSN = {2198-6061},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2899,
   author = {Chadburn, S. E. and Burke, E. J. and Cox, P. M. and Friedlingstein, P. and Hugelius, G. and Westermann, S.},
   title = {An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {7},
   number = {5},
   pages = {340-344},
   abstract = {Permafrost loss can be projected by considering its distribution against warming air temperatures. Using observations to constrain loss estimates, this study investigates loss under different levels of warming.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1969,
   author = {Chafik, Léon and Nilsen, Jan Even Øie and Dangendorf, Sönke},
   title = {Impact of North Atlantic Teleconnection Patterns on Northern European Sea Level},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
   volume = {5},
   number = {3},
   pages = {43},
   ISSN = {2077-1312},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030043},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/43},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2811,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Guo, Yanjuan and Xia, Xiaoming},
   title = {CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {117},
   number = {D23118},
   abstract = {CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of midlatitude storm track changes has been examined. Storm track activity is quantified by temporal variance of meridional wind and sea level pressure (psl), as well as cyclone track statistics. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), CMIP5 models project clear poleward migration, upward expansion, and intensification of the storm track. For the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the models also project some poleward shift and upward expansion of the storm track in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, but mainly weakening of the storm track toward its equatorward flank in the troposphere. Consistent with these, CMIP5 models project significant increase in the frequency of extreme cyclones during the SH cool season, but significant decrease in such events in the NH. Comparisons with CMIP3 projections indicate high degrees of consistency for SH projections, but significant differences are found in the NH. Overall, CMIP5 models project larger decrease in storm track activity in the NH troposphere, especially over North America in winter, where psl variance as well as cyclone frequency and amplitude are all projected to decrease significantly. In terms of climatology, similar to CMIP3, most CMIP5 models simulate storm tracks that are too weak and display equatorward biases in their latitude. These biases have also been related to future projections. In the NH, the strength of a model's climatological storm track is negatively correlated with its projected amplitude change under global warming, while in the SH, models with large equatorward biases in storm track latitude tend to project larger poleward shifts.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018578},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012JD018578},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2810,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Ma, Chen-Geng and Zheng, Cheng and Yau, Albert M. W.},
   title = {Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {43},
   number = {5},
   pages = {2200-2208},
   abstract = {Abstract Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high-impact weather over the midlatitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America. Climate models project a decrease in summer cyclone activity, but the observed decreasing rate is near the fastest projected. Decrease in summer cyclone activity will lead to decrease in cloud cover, giving rise to higher maximum temperature, potentially enhancing the increase in maximum temperature by 0.5 K or more over some regions. We also show that climate models may have biases in simulating the positive relationship between cyclone activity and cloud cover, potentially underestimating the impacts of cyclone decrease on accentuating the future increase in maximum temperature.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068172},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL068172},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2808,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Yau, Albert M. W.},
   title = {Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {47},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1435-1454},
   abstract = {In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1970,
   author = {Chen, Chung-Chi and Gong, Gwo-Ching and Chou, Wen-Chen and Shiah, Fuh-Kwo},
   title = {Hypoxia in autumn of the East China Sea},
   journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin},
   volume = {152},
   pages = {110875},
   abstract = {Hypoxia (O2 ≤ 2 mg L−1) can severely threaten the survival of marine life and alter the biogeochemical cycles of coastal ecosystems. Its impacts are dependent on its duration. In the present study, hypoxia was observed in autumn at the end of October 2011. It may be one of the latest recorded annual hypoxic events in the East China Sea (ECS). In the hypoxic regions, a large amount of nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon were observed to regenerate. Also, acidification (low pH) was observed. On the other hand, hypoxic dissipation may be due to the destratification caused by the upwelling of the hypoxic regions in the ECS. These results suggest that hypoxia may occur for longer periods of time than expected and, accordingly, the effects of hypoxia on the ECS ecosystems should be reconsidered and further evaluated.},
   keywords = {Acidification
Changjiang River estuary
East China Sea
Fugacity of CO
Hypoxia
Nutrient regeneration},
   ISSN = {0025-326X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110875},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X19310318},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2411,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Hellström, Cecilia},
   title = {The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {51},
   number = {4},
   pages = {505-516},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT A statistical analysis of the seasonal and interannual variations in the regional temperature anomalies of Sweden during 1861–1994 is performed. The study uses homogenized monthly temperatures averaged over 6 regions to minimize the non climatic and local-scale climatic effects. It is found that the temperature variability shows a clear regional and seasonal dependency. The topography, the influence of the sea and the synoptic climatology may have determined the dependency. The anomaly is related to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) expressed by an index (NAOI) and the extent to which the temperature anomaly can be explained by the NAO is investigated. The results show that the NAO has an important effect on the regional Swedish temperature on the monthly and interannual scales. The relationship between the temperature and NAOI over the period 1985–1994 are strong, implying that the NAOI may be a suitable candidate for a statistical downscaling model of the regional temperature. However, correlation analysis over different 31-year periods shows that the strength of the association varies with time and region. The further north the weaker the association. On the other hand, the temporal variations of the moving correlations for the 6 regions are similar. Part of the temporal variations may be explained by the averaged strength of NAO during different 31-year periods. This is especially evident for southern Sweden. At last, the coherency spectrums between the temperature anomalies and the NAO index is determined, which enables an examination of the association over the frequency domain. The result supports the idea that the NAO has an important effect on the Swedish temperature, though the strength of the association varied with time. These results have implications for statistical downscaling.},
   ISSN = {0280-6495},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.t01-4-00004.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.t01-4-00004.x},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1535,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Li, Xiaodong},
   title = {Scale-dependent relationship between maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea and atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
   volume = {41},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {275-283},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.01.012},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1707,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Omstedt, Anders},
   title = {Climate-induced variability of sea level in Stockholm: influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
   volume = {22},
   number = {5},
   pages = {655-664},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02918709},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2879,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Zhang, Peng and Seftigen, Kristina and Ou, Tinghai and Giese, Markus and Barthel, Roland},
   title = {Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   pages = {1-29},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2020.1841410},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2020.1841410},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3066,
   author = {Christensen, J. H. and Carter, T. R. and Rummukainen, M. and Amanatidis, G.},
   title = {Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   pages = {1-6},
   DOI = {10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1708,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Christensen, Ole Bøssing},
   title = {A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {7-30},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1709,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Kjellström, Erik and Giorgi, Filippo and Lenderink, Geert and Rummukainen, Markku},
   title = {Weight assignment in regional climate models},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {44},
   number = {2-3},
   pages = {179-194},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00916},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2064,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Larsen, Morten A. D. and Christensen, Ole B. and Drews, Martin and Stendel, Martin},
   title = {Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {53},
   number = {7},
   pages = {4857-4869},
   abstract = {How climate change will unfold in the years to come is a central topic in today’s environmental debate, in particular at the regional level. While projections using large ensembles of global climate models consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern Europe and an increase over northern Europe, individual models substantially modulate these distinct signals of change in precipitation. So far model improvements and higher resolution from regional downscaling have not been seen as able to resolve these disagreements. In this paper we assess whether 2 decades of investments in large ensembles of downscaling experiments with regional climate model simulations for Europe have contributed to a more robust model assessment of the future climate at a range of geographical scales. We study climate change projections of European seasonal temperature and precipitation using an ensemble-suite comprised by all readily available pan-European regional model projections for the twenty-first-century, representing increasing model resolution from ~ 50 to ~ 12 km grid distance, as well as lateral boundary and sea surface temperature conditions from a variety of global model simulations. Employing a simple scaling with global mean temperature change we identify emerging robust signals of future seasonal temperature and precipitation changes also found to resemble current observed trends, where these are judged to be statistically significant.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3427,
   author = {Christensen, O. B. and Kjellström, E. and Dieterich, C. and Gröger, M. and Meier, H. E. M.},
   title = {Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {1},
   pages = {133-157},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1908,
   author = {Christensen, Ole B. and Christensen, Jens H. and Machenhauer, Bennert and Botzet, Michael},
   title = {Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Scandinavia—Present Climate},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {11},
   number = {12},
   pages = {3204-3229},
   abstract = {Abstract The hydrological cycle on a regional scale is poorly represented with a present-day coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM). With a dynamical downscaling technique, in which a regional higher-resolution climate model (RCM) is nested into the GCM, this starts to become feasible. Here the authors go one step further with a double nesting approach, applying an RCM at 19-km horizontal resolution nested into an RCM at 57-km resolution over an area covering the Scandinavian Peninsula. A 9-yr-long time-slice simulation is performed with the driving boundary conditions taken from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM experiment, the recently completed ECHAM4/OPYC3 control simulation performed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. With increasing resolution, local effects playing a significant role in the hydrological budget become better and better resolved and are more realistically simulated. It is found in particular that in mountainous regions the high-resolution simulation shows improvements in the simulation of hydrologically relevant fields such as runoff and snow cover. Also, the distribution of precipitation on different intensity classes is most realistically simulated in the high-resolution simulation. It does, however, inherit certain large-scale systematic errors from the driving GCM. In many cases these errors increase with increasing resolution. Model verification of near-surface temperature and precipitation is made using a new gridded climatology based on a high-density station network for the Scandinavian countries compiled for the present study. The simulated runoff is compared with observed data from Sweden extracted from a Swedish climatological atlas. These runoff data indicate that the precipitation analyses are underestimating the true precipitation by as much as 96% on an annual basis in the most mountainous region of Sweden. This fact as well as estimates of the underestimation in other areas of Scandinavia make the high-resolution RCM simulations appear more realistic.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3204:Vhrrcs>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281998%29011%3C3204%3AVHRRCS%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2999,
   author = {Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Kjellström, Erik},
   title = {Projections for Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, and Snow in the Baltic Sea Region until 2100},
   journal = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science},
   volume = {Oxford University Press},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.695},
   url = {https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-695},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3061,
   author = {Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Kjellström, Erik and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Projected Change—Atmosphere},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {The, Bacc I. I. Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {217-233},
   abstract = {This chapter builds on the comprehensive summary of climate change scenarios in the first BACC assessment published in 2008. This chapter first addresses the dynamical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) results to the regional scale, focussing on results from 13 regional climate modelRegional climate model(RCM) simulations in the ENSEMBLES project as this European-scale ensemble simulation is also relevant for the Baltic Sea region and many studies on temperature, precipitation, wind speed and snow amounts have been performed. This chapter then reviews statistical downscalingDownscalingstudies that use large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) to estimate possible future change in several smaller scale fields (predictands), with the greatest emphasis given to hydrological variables (such as precipitation and run-off). For the Baltic Sea basin, the findings of the statistical downscaling studies are generally in line with studies employing dynamical downscaling.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2084,
   author = {Christiansen, C. and Edelvang, K. and Emeis, K. and Graf, G. and Jähmlich, S. and Kozuch, J. and Laima, M. and Leipe, T. and Löffler, A. and Lund-Hansen, L. C. and Miltner, A. and Pazdro, K. and Pempkowiak, J. and Shimmield, G. and Shimmield, T. and Smith, J. and Voss, M. and Witt, G.},
   title = {Material transport from the nearshore to the basinal environment in the southern Baltic Sea: I. Processes and mass estimates},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {35},
   number = {3},
   pages = {133-150},
   abstract = {Processes involved in erosion, transport and deposition of cohesive materials are studied in a transect from shallow (16 m) to deep (47 m) water of the SW Baltic Sea. The wave- and current-induced energy input to the seabed in shallow water is high with strong variability and suspended matter concentrations may double within a few hours. Primary settling fluxes (from sedimentation traps) are less than 10 g m−2 day−1, whereas resuspension fluxes (evaluated from sedimentation flux gradients) are 15–20 times higher and the residence time for suspended matter in the water column is 1–2 days. Settling velocities of aggregates are on average six times higher than for individual particles resulting in an enhanced downward transport of organic matter. Wave-induced resuspension (four to six times per month) takes place with higher shear stresses on the bottom than current-induced resuspension (three to five times per month). The short residence time in the water column and the frequent resuspension events provide a fast operating benthic–pelagic coupling. Due to the high-energy input, the shallow water areas are nondepositional on time scales longer than 1–2 weeks. The sediment is sand partly covered by a thin fluff layer during low-energy periods. The presence of the fluff layer keeps the resuspension threshold very low (<0.023 N m−2) throughout the year. Evaluated from 3-D sediment transport modeling, transport from shallow to deep water is episodic. The net main directions are towards the Arkona Basin (5.5×105 t per year) and the Bornholm Basin (3.7×105 t per year). Energy input to the bottom in deep water is low and takes place much less frequently. Wave-induced resuspension occurs on average once per month. Residence time of particles (based on radioactive isotopes) in the water column is half a year and the sediment accumulation rate is 2.2 mm year−1 in the Arkona Basin.},
   keywords = {Sediment dynamics
Aggregates
Sedimentation
Resuspension
Material transport
Models
Baltic Sea
Pomeranian Bight},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(02)00126-4},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796302001264},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2421,
   author = {Church, J.A. and Clark, P.U. and Cazenave, A. and Gregory, J.M. and Jevrejeva, S. and Levermann, A. and Merrifield, M.A. and Milne, G.A. and Nerem, R.S. and Nunn, P.D. and Payne, A.J. and Pfeffer, W.T. and Stammer, D. and Unnikrishnan, A.S},
   title = {Sea Level Change},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M.},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge, UK, New York, USA},
   pages = {1137-1216},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
   url = {http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/4605},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2516,
   author = {Chust, Guillem and Allen, J. Icarus and Bopp, Laurent and Schrum, Corinna and Holt, Jason and Tsiaras, Kostas and Zavatarelli, Marco and Chifflet, Marina and Cannaby, Heather and Dadou, Isabelle and Daewel, Ute and Wakelin, Sarah L. and Machu, Eric and Pushpadas, Dhanya and Butenschon, Momme and Artioli, Yuri and Petihakis, George and Smith, Chris and Garçon, Veronique and Goubanova, Katerina and Le Vu, Briac and Fach, Bettina A. and Salihoglu, Baris and Clementi, Emanuela and Irigoien, Xabier},
   title = {Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {20},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2124-2139},
   abstract = {Abstract Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12562},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12562},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2814,
   author = {Ciasto, Laura M. and Li, Camille and Wettstein, Justin J. and Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar},
   title = {North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {29},
   number = {19},
   pages = {6973-6991},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0860.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/29/19/jcli-d-15-0860.1.xml},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2250,
   author = {Claremar, B. and Haglund, K. and Rutgersson, A.},
   title = {Ship emissions and the use of current air cleaning technology: contributions to air pollution and acidification in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {901-919},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-901-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/901/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3293,
   author = {Clark, Suzanna and Schroeder, Friedhelm and Baschek, Burkard},
   title = {The Influence of Large Offshore Wind Farms on the North Sea and Baltic Sea: A Comprehensive Literature Review},
   institution = {Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Zentrum für Material-und Küstenforschung},
   type = {HZG Report 2014-6},
   url = {https://www.impact2c.eu/imperia/md/content/hzg/zentrale_einrichtungen/bibliothek/berichte/hzg_reports_2014/hzg_report_2014_6.pdf},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2649,
   author = {Clason, C. C. and Coch, C. and Jarsjö, J. and Brugger, K. and Jansson, P. and Rosqvist, G.},
   title = {Dye tracing to determine flow properties of hydrocarbon-polluted Rabots glaciär, Kebnekaise, Sweden},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {19},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2701-2715},
   note = {HESS},
   ISSN = {1607-7938},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2701-2015},
   url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/19/2701/2015/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3254,
   author = {Claudi, R. and Mackie, G.L.},
   title = {Practical manual for zebra mussel monitoring and control},
   publisher = {Lewis publishers, Boca Raton, Florida},
   year = {1994},
   type = {Generic}
}

@article{RN2370,
   author = {Clausen, Kevin K. and Stjernholm, Michael and Clausen, Preben},
   title = {Grazing management can counteract the impacts of climate change-induced sea level rise on salt marsh-dependent waterbirds},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
   volume = {50},
   number = {2},
   pages = {528-537},
   abstract = {Summary Climate change–induced rises in sea level threaten to drastically reduce the areal extent of important salt marsh habitats for large numbers of waterfowl and waders. Furthermore, recent changes in management practice have rendered existent salt marshes unfavourable to many birds, as lack of grazing has induced an increase in high-sward communities on former good-quality marshes. Based on a high-resolution digital elevation model and two scenarios for projected rise in near-future sea levels, we employ an ArcMap allocation model to foresee the areal loss in salt marsh associated with these changes. In addition, we quantify the areal extent of inadequate salt marsh management in four EU Special Protection Areas for Birds, and demonstrate concurrent population dynamics in four species relying on managed habitats. We conclude by investigating potential compensation for climate change–induced salt marsh losses by means of more efficient management. Our models indicate that by the end of this century 15·3–43·6% of existent salt marshes will be flooded due to rising sea levels, and that inadequate managed salt marsh presently makes up around 51·1% of total marshes. Thus, re-establishing extensive areas of well-managed marshes might counterbalance the loss expected from rising sea levels during the next century. In addition to positive effects on plant diversity, this will benefit energetically challenged herbivorous waterfowl such as light-bellied brent geese Branta bernicla hrota L. and increase potential recovery of wader populations with unfavourable conservation status such as black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa L., dunlin Calidris alpina L. and ruff Philomachus pugnax L. Synthesis and applications. Implementing environmentally friendly management schemes based on extensive grazing (around 1 cow per hectare) is an important initiative to counteract the accelerating climate change–induced habitat loss in near-coastal areas across the globe, and to secure priority salt marsh habitats that support internationally important populations of breeding, wintering and staging waterfowl. However, this may only be a temporary solution that will have to be supplemented by increased reintegration with the sea and managed retreat of seawalls or near-coastal agricultural areas to effectively safeguard the future salt marsh biome.},
   ISSN = {0021-8901},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12043},
   url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2664.12043},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2066,
   author = {Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann and Clausen, Preben},
   title = {Forecasting future drowning of coastal waterbird habitats reveals a major conservation concern},
   journal = {Biological Conservation},
   volume = {171},
   pages = {177-185},
   abstract = {Climate change-induced rising sea levels are expected to affect coastal habitats worldwide, and the associated coastal squeeze in protected coastal areas might significantly alter availability of coastal habitats. This study combines coastal bathymetry and elevation models to develop a continuous topographic model covering coastal areas on a large geographical scale, and predicts the areal change in five habitats important to numerous breeding and migrating birds. Our model indicates considerable declines in coastal habitats as a result of coastal squeeze, and reveals major conservation concerns regarding future preservation of essential waterbird habitats. In our study area this will directly influence seven species of herbivorous waterbirds occurring at internationally important numbers, and a total of 41 species of coastal birds protected under the EU Birds Directive, many of which are currently designated as having an unfavourable conservation status. Declines in coastal habitats will also affect invertebrates and fish, and through effects on food webs have an even wider ecological implication. These findings highlight the need of focused coastal management, and illustrate the cost of uncritically protecting human agricultural interests while preventing natural dynamics of the coastal zone. Our analysis indicate that pulling down existing sea walls will reduce the loss by 37–65% dependent on habitat type, but that complete compensation is unlikely in our study area due to local topography. Managed retreat of coastlines might be an efficient solution to counteract the effects of coastal squeeze, but the time and interests associated with implementation of such mitigation measures imply that the time for action is now.},
   keywords = {Climate change
Sea level rise
Birds
Coastal squeeze
Habitat loss},
   ISSN = {0006-3207},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.01.033},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714000457},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3025,
   author = {Colette, A. and Aas, W. and Banin, L. and Braban, C. F. and Ferm, M. and Ortiz, A. G. and Ilyin, I. and Mar, K. and Pandolfi, M. and Putaud, J.-P. and Shatalov, V. and Solberg, S. and Spindler, G. and Tarasova, O. and Vana, M. and Adani, M. and Almodovar, P. and Berton, E. and Bessagnet, B. and Bohlin-Nizzetto, P. and Boruvkova, J. and Breivik, K. and Briganti, G. and Cappelletti, A. and Cuvelier, K. and Derwent, R. and D’Isidoro, M. and Fagerli, H. and Funk, C. and Vivanco, M. G. and Haeuber, R. and Hueglin, C. and Jenkins, S. and Kerr, J. and Leeuw, F. de, Lynch, J. and Manders, A. and Mircea, M. and Pay, M. T. and Pritula, D. and Querol, X. and Raffort, V. and Reiss, I. and Roustan, Y. and Sauvage, S. and Scavo, K. and Simpson, D. and Smith, R. I. and Tang, Y. S. and Theobald, M. and Tørseth, K. and Tsyro, S. and Pul, A. van, Vidic, S. and Wallasch, M. and Wind, P.},
   title = {Air pollution trends in the EMEP region between 1990 and 2012},
   institution = {Norwegian Institute for Air Research},
   type = {EMEP: CCC-Report 1/2016},
   DOI = {http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513779/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2068,
   author = {Colette, Augustin and Andersson, Camilla and Baklanov, Alexander and Bessagnet, Bertrand and Brandt, Jørgen and Christensen, Jesper H. and Doherty, Ruth and Engardt, Magnuz and Geels, Camilla and Giannakopoulos, Christos and Hedegaard, Gitte B. and Katragkou, Eleni and Langner, Joakim and Lei, Hang and Manders, Astrid and Melas, Dimitris and Meleux, Frédérik and Rouïl, Laurence and Sofiev, Mikhail and Soares, Joana and Stevenson, David S. and Tombrou-Tzella, Maria and Varotsos, Konstantinos V. and Young, Paul},
   title = {Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {10},
   number = {8},
   pages = {084015},
   abstract = {Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071–2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time windows, respectively.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084015},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2069,
   author = {Colette, Augustin and Bessagnet, Bertrand and Vautard, Robert and Szopa, Sophie and Rao, Shilpa and Schucht, Simone and Klimont, Zbigniew and Menut, Laurent and Clain, Gaëlle and Meleux, Frédérik and CURCI, Gabriele and Rouil, Laurence},
   title = {European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {15},
   pages = {7451-7471},
   note = {Environmental Sciences/Environmental EngineeringJournal articles},
   abstract = {To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.},
   ISSN = {1680-7316},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013},
   url = {https://hal-ineris.archives-ouvertes.fr/ineris-00961809},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3037,
   author = {Colette, Augustin and Rouïl, Laurence},
   title = {Air Quality Trends in Europe: 2000-2017, Assessment for surface SO2, NO2, Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5},
   institution = {European Topic Centre on Air pollution, transport, noise and industrial pollution},
   number = {Eionet Report - ETC/ATNI 2019/16},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2015,
   author = {Collins, James A. and Lamy, Frank and Kaiser, Jérôme and Ruggieri, Nicoletta and Henkel, Susann and De Pol-Holz, Ricardo and Garreaud, René and Arz, Helge W.},
   title = {Centennial-Scale SE Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over the Past 2,300 Years},
   journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},
   volume = {34},
   number = {3},
   pages = {336-352},
   abstract = {Abstract Detailed temperature reconstructions over the past 2,000 years are important for contextualizing modern climate change. The midlatitude SE Pacific is a key region in this regard in terms of understanding the climatic linkages between the tropics and southern high latitudes. Multicentennial timescale temperature variability remains, however, poorly understood, due to a lack of long, high-temporal-resolution temperature records from this region and from the southern high latitudes in general. We present a unique alkenone sea surface temperature (SST) record from 44°S on the southern Chilean margin in the SE Pacific spanning the last 2,300 years at decadal resolution. The record displays relatively large changes including a cooling transition from 14 to 12.5 °C between 1,100 and 600 cal yr BP, in line with other Chile margin SST records and coeval with Antarctic cooling. This cooling is attributable to reduced Southern Ocean deep convection, driven by a late Holocene sea-ice increase in the Weddell Sea associated with increased El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability. Superimposed on the late Holocene cooling, we observe multicentennial timescale SST variability, including relatively cool SSTs (12.5 °C) from 950 to 500 cal yr BP, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and warmer SSTs (13 °C) from 500 to 200 cal yr BP, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. These oscillations may reflect either multicentennial internal variability of the Southern Ocean deep convection and/or multicentennial variability in the phasing of El-Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode events.},
   ISSN = {2572-4517},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018pa003465},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018PA003465},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN1710,
   author = {Collins, Matthew and Knutti, Reto and Arblaster, Julie and Dufresne, J-L and Fichefet, Thierry and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gao, Xuejie and Gutowski, W J and Johns, Tim and Krinner, Gerhard and Shongwe, Mxolisi and Tebaldi, Claudia and Weaver, Andrew J and Wehner, Michael F and Allen, Myles R and Andrews, Tim and Beyerle, Urs and Bitz, Cecilia M. and Bony, Sandrine and Booth, Ben B B},
   title = {Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility},
   booktitle = {IPCC Chapter 12, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group I Contribution to IPCC AR5; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA},
   editor = {Stocker, Thomas F. and Qin, Dahe and Plattner, Gian-Kasper and Tignor, Melinda M.B. and Allen, Simon K. and Boschung, Judith and Nauels, Alexander and Xia, Yu and Bex, Vincent and Midgley, Pauline M.},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   pages = {1029-1136},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@misc{RN2125,
   author = {Commission, Helsinki Commission - Baltic Marine Environment Protection},
   title = {HELCOM Red List of Baltic Sea species in danger of becoming extinct},
   pages = {106},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP140-1.pdf},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Electronic Book}
}

@article{RN1680,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J and Björck, Svante and Bonsdorff, Erik and Carstensen, Jacob and Destouni, Georgia and Gustafsson, Bo G and Hietanen, Susanna and Kortekaas, Marloes and Kuosa, Harri and Meier, H. E. Markus and others},
   title = {Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {43},
   number = {10},
   pages = {3412-3420},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es802762a},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1679,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J and Humborg, Christoph and Rahm, Lars and Savchuk, Oleg P and Wulff, Fredrik},
   title = {Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea and basin-scale changes in phosphorus biogeochemistry},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {36},
   number = {24},
   pages = {5315-5320},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es025763w},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1942,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J.},
   title = {Save the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {486},
   pages = {463},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/486463a},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/486463a},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3013,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J. and Bonsdorff, Erik and Carstensen, Jacob and Destouni, Georgia and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Hansson, Lars-Anders and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Voss, Maren and Zillén, Lovisa},
   title = {Tackling Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Is Engineering a Solution?},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {43},
   number = {10},
   pages = {3407-3411},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es8027633},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es8027633},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1971,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J. and Carstensen, Jacob and Aigars, Juris and Axe, Philip and Bonsdorff, Erik and Eremina, Tatjana and Haahti, Britt-Marie and Humborg, Christoph and Jonsson, Per and Kotta, Jonne and Lännegren, Christer and Larsson, Ulf and Maximov, Alexey and Medina, Miguel Rodriguez and Lysiak-Pastuszak, Elzbieta and Remeikaitė-Nikienė, Nijolė and Walve, Jakob and Wilhelms, Sunhild and Zillén, Lovisa},
   title = {Hypoxia Is Increasing in the Coastal Zone of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {45},
   number = {16},
   pages = {6777-6783},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es201212r},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es201212r},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2387,
   author = {Conley, Daniel J. and Paerl, Hans W. and Howarth, Robert W. and Boesch, Donald F. and Seitzinger, Sybil P. and Havens, Karl E. and Lancelot, Christiane and Likens, Gene E.},
   title = {Controlling Eutrophication: Nitrogen and Phosphorus},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {323},
   number = {5917},
   pages = {1014-1015},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1167755},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/323/5917/1014.full.pdf},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3403,
   author = {Coppola, Erika and Nogherotto, Rita and Ciarlo', James M. and Giorgi, Filippo and van Meijgaard, Erik and Kadygrov, Nikolay and Iles, Carley and Corre, Lola and Sandstad, Marit and Somot, Samuel and Nabat, Pierre and Vautard, Robert and Levavasseur, Guillaume and Schwingshackl, Clemens and Sillmann, Jana and Kjellström, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Aalbers, Emma and Lenderink, Geert and Christensen, Ole B. and Boberg, Fredrik and Sørland, Silje Lund and Demory, Marie-Estelle and Bülow, Katharina and Teichmann, Claas and Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten and Wulfmeyer, Volker},
   title = {Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {126},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e2019JD032356},
   abstract = {Abstract This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO-CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter-model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO-CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JD032356},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2436,
   author = {Cornes, Richard C. and van der Schrier, Gerard and Squintu, Antonello A.},
   title = {A reappraisal of the thermal growing season length across Europe},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {39},
   number = {3},
   pages = {1787-1795},
   abstract = {Growing season length (GSL) indices derived from surface air temperature are frequently used in climate monitoring applications. The widely used Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) definition aims to give a broadly applicable measure of the GSL that is indicative of the duration of the mild part of the year. In this paper long-term trends in that index are compared with an alternative measure calculated using a time series decomposition technique (empirical ensemble mode decomposition [EEMD]). It is demonstrated that the ETCCDI index departs from the mild-season definition as its start and end dates are determined by temperature events operating within the synoptic timescale; this raises the inter-annual variance of the index. The EEMD-derived index provides a less noisy and more realistic index of the GSL by filtering out the synoptic-scale variance and capturing the annual-cycle and longer timescale variability. Long-term trends in the GSL are comparable between the two indices, with an average increase in length of around 5 days/decade observed for the period 1965–2016. However, the results using the EEMD index display a more coherent picture of significant trends than has been previously observed. Furthermore, the EEMD-derived growing season parameters are more closely related to variations in seasonal-mean hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, with around 57% of the inter-annual variation in the start of the growing season being connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic patterns, and around 55% of variation in the end of the growing season being associated with East Atlantic/west Russia-type patterns.},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5913},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.5913},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2680,
   author = {Cornes, Richard C. and van der Schrier, Gerard and van den Besselaar, Else J. M. and Jones, Philip D.},
   title = {An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {123},
   number = {17},
   pages = {9391-9409},
   abstract = {Abstract We describe the construction of a new version of the Europe-wide E-OBS temperature (daily minimum, mean, and maximum values) and precipitation data set. This version provides an improved estimation of interpolation uncertainty through the calculation of a 100-member ensemble of realizations of each daily field. The data set covers the period back to 1950 and provides gridded fields at a spacing of 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ in regular latitude/longitude coordinates. As with the original E-OBS data set, the ensemble version is based on the station series collated as part of the ECA&D initiative. Station density varies significantly over the domain, and over time, and a reliable estimation of interpolation uncertainty in the gridded fields is therefore important for users of the data set. The uncertainty quantified by the ensemble data set is more realistic than the uncertainty estimates in the original version, although uncertainty is still underestimated in data-sparse regions. The new data set is compared against the earlier version of E-OBS and against regional gridded data sets produced by a selection of National Meteorological Services. In terms of both climatological averages and extreme values, the new version of E-OBS is broadly comparable to the earlier version. Nonetheless, users will notice differences between the two E-OBS versions, especially for precipitation, which arises from the different gridding method used.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2017JD028200},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2771,
   author = {Coumou, Dim and Lehmann, Jascha and Beckmann, Johanna},
   title = {The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {348},
   number = {6232},
   pages = {324},
   abstract = {Has recent rapid warming in the Arctic affected weather elsewhere in the world? Coumou et al. find that some key measures of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere have weakened during the summer. This change has been caused by the reduction of the temperature difference between mid-latitudes and the North Pole. As summertime circulation has decreased in intensity, episodes of hot weather have become more persistent because there are fewer storms to bring cooler conditions.Science, this issue p. 324 Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1261768},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/348/6232/324.abstract},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2071,
   author = {Croci-Maspoli, M. and Schwierz, C. and Davies, H. C.},
   title = {A Multifaceted Climatology of Atmospheric Blocking and Its Recent Linear Trend},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {20},
   number = {4},
   pages = {633-649},
   abstract = {A dynamically based climatology is derived for Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking events. Blocks are viewed as large amplitude, long-lasting, and negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies located beneath the dynamical tropopause. The derived climatology [based on the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] provides a concise, coherent, and illuminating description of the main physical characteristics of blocks and the accompanying linear trends. The latitude–longitude distribution of blocking frequency captures the standard bimodal geographical distribution with major peaks over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific in all four seasons. The accompanying pattern for the age distribution, the genesis–lysis regions, and the track of blocks reveals that 1) younger blocks (1–4 days) are more prevalent at lower latitudes whereas significantly older blocks (up to 12 days) are located at higher latitudes; 2) genesis is confined predominantly to the two major ocean basins and in a zonal band between 40° and 50°N latitude, whereas lysis is more dispersed but with clear preference to higher latitudes; and 3) the general northeastward–west-northwest movement of blocks in the genesis–lysis phase also exhibits subtle seasonal and intra- and interbasin differences. Examination of the intensity and spatial-scale changes during the blocking life cycle suggests that in the mean a block’s evolution is independent of the genesis region and its eventual duration. A novel analysis of blocking trends reveals significant negative trends in winter over Greenland and in spring over the North Pacific. It is shown that the changes over Greenland are linked to the number of blocking episodes, whereas a neighboring trend signal to the south is linked to higher-frequency anticyclonic systems. Furthermore, evidence is adduced that changes in blocking frequency contribute seminally to tropopause height trends.},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org10.1175/JCLI4029.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3332,
   author = {Culhane, Fiona E. and Frid, Christoper L. J. and Royo Gelabert, Eva and White, Lydia and Robinson, Leonie A.},
   title = {Linking marine ecosystems with the services they supply: what are the relevant service providing units?},
   journal = {Ecological Applications},
   volume = {28},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1740-1751},
   abstract = {Abstract Marine ecosystems support supply of ecosystem services (ESs) through processes and functions carried out by diverse biological elements. Managing sustainability of ES use requires linking services to the parts of ecosystems supplying them. We specified marine service providing units (SPUs) as plausible combinations of a biotic group (e.g., bacteria, seabirds) with an associated major habitat (e.g., sublittoral sediment). We developed a network model for large marine ecosystems, documenting 2,916 links between 153 SPUs with 31 services. Coastal habitats and their taxa accounted for 48% of links, but all habitats with their taxa contribute to at least 20 ESs. Through network analysis, we showed some services link to certain key habitats, while others are less clearly defined in space, being supported by a variety of habitats and their taxa. Analysis highlighted large-scale flows across marine habitats that are essential in underpinning continued supply of certain ESs, for example, seed dispersal. If we only protect habitats where services are used, we will not fully protect the supply of services reliant on mobile taxa moving between habitats. This emerged because we considered habitats and their taxa together. We recommend using combinations of habitats and taxa as SPUs when informing marine ecosystem management and conservation.},
   ISSN = {1051-0761},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1779},
   url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.1779},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2696,
   author = {Cyberski, J. and Wróblewski, A. and Stewart, J.},
   title = {Riverine water inflows and the Baltic Sea water volume 1901-1990},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {4},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1-11},
   note = {HESS},
   ISSN = {1607-7938},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-4-1-2000},
   url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/4/1/2000/},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1931,
   author = {Daewel, Ute and Schrum, Corinna},
   title = {Simulating long-term dynamics of the coupled North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystem with ECOSMO II: Model description and validation},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {119-120},
   pages = {30-49},
   abstract = {The North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystems differ substantially in both hydrology and biogeochemical processes. Nonetheless, both systems are closely linked to each other and a coupled modeling approach is indispensable when aiming to simulate and understand long-term ecosystem dynamics in both seas. In this study, we present first an updated version of the fully coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO, a 3d hydrodynamic and a N(utrient)P(hytoplankton)Z(ooplankton)D(etritus) model, which is now adopted to the coupled system North Sea–Baltic Sea. To make the model applicable to both ecosystems, processes relevant for the Baltic Sea (e.g. sedimentation, cyanobacteria) were incorporated into the model formulation. Secondly we assess the validity of the model to describe seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variations in both seas. Our analyses show that the model sufficiently represents the spatial and temporal dynamics in both ecosystems but with some uncertainties in the coastal areas of the North Sea, likely related to the missing representation of tidal flats in the model, and in the deep-water nutrient pool of the Baltic Sea. Finally we present results from a 61-year (1948–2008) hindcast of the coupled North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystem and identify long-term changes in primary and secondary production. The simulated long-term dynamics of primary and secondary production could be corroborated by observations from available literature and shows a general increase in the last three decades of the simulation when compared to the first 30years. Regime shifts could be identified for both ecosystems, but with differences in both, timing and magnitude of the related change.},
   keywords = {ECOSMO
North Sea- Baltic Sea
3d biophysical modeling
Ecosystem dynamics
Multi decadal simulation
Model validation},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.03.008},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796313000705},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1677,
   author = {Daewel, Ute and Schrum, Corinna},
   title = {Low frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model ECOSMO},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {3},
   pages = {801},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-801-2017},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3207,
   author = {Dahl, Jonas and Dannewitz, Johan and Karlsson, Lars and Petersson, Erik and Löf, Anna and Ragnarsson, Bjarne},
   title = {The timing of spawning migration: implications of environmental variation, life history, and sex},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Zoology},
   volume = {82},
   number = {12},
   pages = {1864-1870},
   abstract = {During 1960?2002, the arrival times of all spawning male and female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L., 1758) and brown trout (Salmo trutta L., 1758) entering Dalälven River were recorded. To study the role of environmental variation in spawning migration timing, we used long-term temperature (river and sea) and river discharge data. For salmon, the spawning migration peak was strongly correlated with mean monthly sea and river temperatures during spring: salmon arrived earlier when temperatures were higher and later when temperatures were lower. River discharge explained little of the variation in migration timing. Female salmon migration showed a stronger correlation with temperature than male salmon migration, and female salmon arrived ≈18 days earlier than males. Trout showed a larger variation in their spawning migration, but river and sea temperatures and river discharge explained little of the variation. Trout females arrived ≈7 days earlier than males. The sea and river temperatures were highly correlated during the spawning migration, indicating that large climate processes determine the temperature regimes in the Baltic Sea and its tributaries. Time of arrival at the river was not correlated with ovulation date; a female salmon or brown trout arriving late could ovulate almost immediately, whereas a female arriving early could wait to ovulate.},
   ISSN = {0008-4301},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/z04-184},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/z04-184},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1940,
   author = {Dahlgren, P. and Landelius, T. and Kållberg, P. and Gollvik, S.},
   title = {A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe. Part 1: Three-dimensional reanalysis with the regional HIgh-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)},
   journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
   volume = {142},
   number = {698},
   pages = {2119-2131},
   abstract = {A regional reanalysis covering the years 1989–2010 has been produced with the HIgh Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) forecast model and data assimilation system. Surface and upper-air variables were analysed at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC on a three-dimensional grid-mesh with 22 km spacing covering Europe using conventional insitu observations. Information from the global reanalysis ERA-Interim has been used as a large-scale constraint in the data assimilation and as lateral boundaries in the forecast model integrations. Comparison to the global forcing reanalysis shows good agreement in the large-scale structures, as expected given the forcing from the boundaries and in the analysis. Comparison to the observed climatological distribution and a skill score evaluation showed that the HIRLAM reanalysis is better than ERA-Interim at describing extreme values of 2 m temperature and 24 h accumulated precipitation. However, no added value in the HIRLAM reanalysis could be quantified for the wind speed at 10 m over land. The first production run covered the years 1989–2010 and the statistics presented in this paper are based on that dataset. This reanalysis has also been used as input to a two-dimensional surface analysis using the MESoscale ANalysis (MESAN) system which is presented in Part 2. Since then both the two- and three dimensional reanalyses have been extended to cover the years 1979–2014.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2807},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2807},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1538,
   author = {Dailidienė, Inga and Davulienė, Lina},
   title = {Salinity trend and variation in the Baltic Sea near the Lithuanian coast and in the Curonian Lagoon in 1984--2005},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {74},
   pages = {S20--S29},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.01.014},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1503,
   author = {Dailidienė, Inga and Davulienė, Lina and Tilickis, Benediktas and Stankevičius, Algirdas and Myrberg, Kai},
   title = {Sea level variability at the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {11},
   pages = {109-121},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3212,
   author = {Dainys, Justas and Jakubavičiūtė, Eglė and Gorfine, Harry and Pūtys, Žilvinas and Virbickas, Tomas and Jakimavičius, Darius and Šarauskienė, Diana and Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, Diana and Povilaitis, Arvydas and Bukantis, Arūnas and Kažys, Justas and Ložys, Linas},
   title = {Predicted climate change effects on European perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) - A case study from the Curonian Lagoon, south-eastern Baltic},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {221},
   pages = {83-89},
   abstract = {Climate change is likely to increasingly impact estuarine fish populations. Changes in water temperature or salinity can have deleterious effects on fish growth and behaviour. A decrease in the abundance of freshwater fish in the northern areas of the Curonian Lagoon has been attributed to increased salinity of inflowing water from the Baltic Sea. Thus, this study investigated the effects of possible changes in environmental salinity and temperature on the growth and behaviour of perch (Perca fluviatilis L.). Laboratory experiments revealed that brackish water (salinity 3 and 6) has neither a negative nor a positive effect on growth rates among perch young-of-the-year, when compared to freshwater (salinity 0). In contrast, results from behavioural experiments demonstrated that perch prefer to remain in brackish water (salinity 6) when given a choice between brackish and freshwater, and in warm water (18 °C) when given a choice between warm and cold water (12 °C). For this reason, the temperature rather than the salinity of inflowing colder brackish water from the Baltic Sea will be the most likely driver of short-term changes in fish distribution in the Curonian Lagoon.},
   keywords = {Freshwater fish
Water temperature
Salinity
Growth
Behaviour},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.03.020},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771418305717},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3340,
   author = {Dam Lam, Rodolfo and Gasparatos, Alexandros and Chakraborty, Shamik and Rivera, Horacio and Stanley, Taira},
   title = {Multiple values and knowledge integration in indigenous coastal and marine social-ecological systems research: A systematic review},
   journal = {Ecosystem Services},
   volume = {37},
   pages = {100910},
   abstract = {This systematic review explores patterns in the peer-reviewed literature related to the integration of multiple values in coastal/marine SES in indigenous settings. We extract metadata from 109 papers across five domains: 1) general study characteristics, 2) transdisciplinarity, 3) methodology, 4) SES elements (and their relationships), and 5) values. We use latent class analysis, descriptive statistics, and different visualization tools to elicit, synthesise and highlight the identified research patterns. Our results suggest that the peer-reviewed literature can be categorised across two main research approaches, contextual research and causal research. The former mainly uses qualitative techniques to study the drivers and pressures in such coastal/marine SES, providing a rather comprehensive understanding of these issues. The latter tends to engage better relevant stakeholders as a means of explaining relationships/impacts within such SES. Furthermore, causal research studies employ a more robust methodological portfolio. We argue that cross-fertilization between these distinct research approaches can contribute towards a more effective integration of different knowledge systems and values in indigenous coastal/marine contexts. In particular, contextual research can point “where we need to go”, while causal research can employ novel tools to assess in depth the multiple values related to the ecosystem services provided by indigenous coastal/marine SES.},
   keywords = {Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK)
Indigenous people
Ecosystem services
DPSIR
Knowledge integrations},
   ISSN = {2212-0416},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100910},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041618305151},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3099,
   author = {Dangendorf, Sönke and Hay, Carling and Calafat, Francisco M. and Marcos, Marta and Piecuch, Christopher G. and Berk, Kevin and Jensen, Jürgen},
   title = {Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {9},
   number = {9},
   pages = {705-710},
   abstract = {Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3005,
   author = {Dansereau, V. and Weiss, J. and Saramito, P. and Lattes, P.},
   title = {A Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology for sea ice modelling},
   journal = {The Cryosphere},
   volume = {10},
   number = {3},
   pages = {1339-1359},
   note = {TC},
   ISSN = {1994-0424},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1339-2016},
   url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/10/1339/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2073,
   author = {Davini, Paolo and Cagnazzo, Chiara and Gualdi, Silvio and Navarra, Antonio},
   title = {Bidimensional Diagnostics, Variability, and Trends of Northern Hemisphere Blocking},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {25},
   number = {19},
   pages = {6496-6509},
   abstract = {In this paper, Northern Hemisphere winter blocking is analyzed through the introduction of a set of new bidimensional diagnostics based on geopotential height that provide information about the occurrence, the duration, the intensity, and the wave breaking associated with the blocking. This analysis is performed with different reanalysis datasets in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the index and the diagnostics adopted. In this way, the authors are able to define a new category of blocking placed at low latitudes that is similar to midlatitude blocking in terms of the introduced diagnostics but is unable to divert or block the flow. Furthermore, over the Euro-Atlantic sector it is shown that it is possible to phenomenologically distinguish between high-latitude blocking occurring over Greenland, north of the jet stream and dominated by cyclonic wave breaking, and the traditional midlatitude blocking localized over Europe and driven by anticyclonic wave breaking. These latter events are uniformly present in a band ranging from the Azores up to Scandinavia. Interestingly, a similar distinction cannot be pointed out over the Pacific basin where the blocking activity is dominated by high-latitude blocking occurring over eastern Siberia. Finally, considering the large impact that blocking may have on the Northern Hemisphere, an analysis of the variability and the trend is carried out. This shows a significant increase of Atlantic low-latitude blocking frequency and an eastward displacement of the strongest blocking events over both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00032.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00032.1},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3316,
   author = {De  Ceuster, G. and van  Herbruggen, B. and Logghe, S.},
   title = {TREMOVE  -  description  of  model  and  baseline  version  2.41.  Report  for  the  European  Commission},
   type = {DG  ENV.  Chapter  VI  –  The  maritime  model.  Service  Contract  B4-3040/2002/342069/MAR/C.1.  Transport  &  Mobility Leuven},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2426,
   author = {de Boyer Montégut, Clément and Madec, Gurvan and Fischer, Albert S. and Lazar, Alban and Iudicone, Daniele},
   title = {Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {109},
   number = {C12},
   pages = {C12003},
   abstract = {A new 2° resolution global climatology of the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on individual profiles is constructed. Previous global climatologies have been based on temperature or density-gridded climatologies. The criterion selected is a threshold value of temperature or density from a near-surface value at 10 m depth (ΔT = 0.2°C or Δσθ = 0.03 kg m−3). A validation of the temperature criterion on moored time series data shows that the method is successful at following the base of the mixed layer. In particular, the first spring restratification is better captured than with a more commonly used larger criteria. In addition, we show that for a given 0.2°C criterion, the MLD estimated from averaged profiles results in a shallow bias of 25% compared to the MLD estimated from individual profiles. A new global seasonal estimation of barrier layer thickness is also provided. An interesting result is the prevalence in mid- and high-latitude winter hemispheres of vertically density-compensated layers, creating an isopycnal but not mixed layer. Consequently, we propose an optimal estimate of MLD based on both temperature and density data. An independent validation of the maximum annual MLD with oxygen data shows that this oxygen estimate may be biased in regions of Ekman pumping or strong biological activity. Significant differences are shown compared to previous climatologies. The timing of the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer is shifted earlier in the year, and the maximum MLD captures finer structures and is shallower. These results are discussed in light of the different approaches and the choice of criterion.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jc002378},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2004JC002378},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2927,
   author = {Defeo, Omar and McLachlan, Anton and Schoeman, David S. and Schlacher, Thomas A. and Dugan, Jenifer and Jones, Alan and Lastra, Mariano and Scapini, Felicita},
   title = {Threats to sandy beach ecosystems: A review},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1-12},
   abstract = {We provide a brief synopsis of the unique physical and ecological attributes of sandy beach ecosystems and review the main anthropogenic pressures acting on the world's single largest type of open shoreline. Threats to beaches arise from a range of stressors which span a spectrum of impact scales from localised effects (e.g. trampling) to a truly global reach (e.g. sea-level rise). These pressures act at multiple temporal and spatial scales, translating into ecological impacts that are manifested across several dimensions in time and space so that today almost every beach on every coastline is threatened by human activities. Press disturbances (whatever the impact source involved) are becoming increasingly common, operating on time scales of years to decades. However, long-term data sets that describe either the natural dynamics of beach systems or the human impacts on beaches are scarce and fragmentary. A top priority is to implement long-term field experiments and monitoring programmes that quantify the dynamics of key ecological attributes on sandy beaches. Because of the inertia associated with global climate change and human population growth, no realistic management scenario will alleviate these threats in the short term. The immediate priority is to avoid further development of coastal areas likely to be directly impacted by retreating shorelines. There is also scope for improvement in experimental design to better distinguish natural variability from anthropogenic impacts. Sea-level rise and other effects of global warming are expected to intensify other anthropogenic pressures, and could cause unprecedented ecological impacts. The definition of the relevant scales of analysis, which will vary according to the magnitude of the impact and the organisational level under analysis, and the recognition of a physical–biological coupling at different scales, should be included in approaches to quantify impacts. Zoning strategies and marine reserves, which have not been widely implemented in sandy beaches, could be a key tool for biodiversity conservation and should also facilitate spillover effects into adjacent beach habitats. Setback and zoning strategies need to be enforced through legislation, and all relevant stakeholders should be included in the design, implementation and institutionalisation of these initiatives. New perspectives for rational management of sandy beaches require paradigm shifts, by including not only basic ecosystem principles, but also incentives for effective governance and sharing of management roles between government and local stakeholders.},
   keywords = {sandy shores
threats
climate change
human impacts
global change},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.022},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771408003752},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2041,
   author = {Del Giudice, Dario and Matli, V. R. R. and Obenour, Daniel R.},
   title = {Bayesian mechanistic modeling characterizes Gulf of Mexico hypoxia: 1968–2016 and future scenarios},
   journal = {Ecological Applications},
   volume = {30},
   number = {2},
   pages = {e02032},
   abstract = {Abstract The hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico is among the most dramatic examples of impairments to aquatic ecosystems. Despite having attracted substantial attention, management of this environmental crisis remains challenging, partially due to limited monitoring to support model development and long-term assessments. Here, we leverage new geostatistical estimates of hypoxia derived from nearly 150 monitoring cruises and a process-based model to improve characterization of controlling mechanisms, historic trends, and future responses of hypoxia while rigorously quantifying uncertainty in a Bayesian framework. We find that November–March nitrogen loads are important controls of sediment oxygen demand, which appears to be the major oxygen sink. In comparison, only ~23% of oxygen in the near-bottom region appears to be consumed by net water column respiration, which is driven by spring and summer loads. Hypoxia typically exceeds 15,600 km2 in June, peaks in July, and declines below 10,000 km2 in September. In contrast to some previous Gulf hindcasting studies, our simulations demonstrate that hypoxia was both severe and worsening prior to 1985, and has remained relatively stable since that time. Scenario analysis shows that halving nutrient loadings will reduce hypoxia by 37% with respect to 13,900 km2 (1985–2016 median), while a +2°C change in water temperature will cause a 26% hypoxic area increase due to enhanced sediment respiration and reduced oxygen solubility. These new results highlight the challenges of achieving hypoxia reduction targets, particularly under warming conditions, and should be considered in ecosystem management.},
   ISSN = {1051-0761},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2032},
   url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eap.2032},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3468,
   author = {Delworth, Thomas L. and Zeng, Fanrong},
   title = {The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {29},
   number = {3},
   pages = {941-962},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0396.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/29/3/jcli-d-15-0396.1.xml},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3469,
   author = {Delworth, Thomas L. and Zeng, Fanrong and Zhang, Liping and Zhang, Rong and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Yang, Xiaosong},
   title = {The Central Role of Ocean Dynamics in Connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the Extratropical Component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {30},
   number = {10},
   pages = {3789-3805},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0358.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0358.1.xml},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3224,
   author = {DeMaster, Douglas P. and Fowler, Charles W. and Perry, Simona L. and Richlen, Michael F.},
   title = {Predation and Competition: The Impact of Fisheries on Marine-Mammal Populations Over the next one Hundred Years},
   journal = {Journal of Mammalogy},
   volume = {82},
   number = {3},
   pages = {641-651},
   abstract = {We discuss the potential for commercial fisheries to adversely impact ≥1 population of marine mammal by the end of the 21st century. To a large degree, patterns over the last 50 years regarding human population growth, success and failure in marine-fisheries management, and life history and status information on marine mammals are the basis for 6 predictions. First, annual worldwide landings of fish and shellfish by the end of the 21st century will be less than 80 million tons. Second, virtually all of the predictions regarding species composition and energy flow within a marine community, based on models developed to date with incomplete information on species abundance, food habits, genetic effects of fishing, and variability of predator food habits, will prove wrong on a decadal or longer time scale. Third, the most common type of competitive interaction between marine mammals and commercial fisheries will be that in which commercial fisheries adversely affect a marine-mammal population by depleting localized food resources without necessarily overfishing the target species of fish (or shellfish). Because of this, the number of extant populations and species richness of marine mammals will be reduced by the end of the 21st century, and coastal populations and species will be affected more negatively than will noncoastal species. Fifth, predator control programs designed to reduce local populations of marine mammals will be common without changes in existing forms of fishery management. Finally, protein from marine mammals will become a more important component of the human diet than it currently is.},
   ISSN = {0022-2372},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1644/1545-1542(2001)082<0641:PACTIO>2.0.CO;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1644/1545-1542(2001)082<0641:PACTIO>2.0.CO},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2744,
   author = {Deng, J. and Harff, J. and Schimanke, S. and Meier, H. E. M.},
   title = {A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate},
   journal = {Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies},
   volume = {Vol. 44, No. 3},
   pages = {362-380},
   abstract = {The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.},
   keywords = {modelling
coastline changes
dynamic equilibrium
sediment budget estimation
climate change},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2994,
   author = {Deng, Junjie and Wu, Jiaxue and Zhang, Wenyan and Dudzinska-Nowak, Joanna and Harff, Jan},
   title = {Characterising the relaxation distance of nearshore submarine morphology: A southern Baltic Sea case study},
   journal = {Geomorphology},
   volume = {327},
   pages = {365-376},
   abstract = {A method for defining the length of coast with alongshore uniformity of nearshore submarine morphology is required in many shore-normal, nearshore profile modelling approaches. Here, we introduce a new variable, the ‘relaxation distance’, to describe the alongshore spacing between two adjacent shore-normal profiles characterised by distinct morphologies. Within this distance, alongshore morphological changes are too small to distinguish, so the nearshore submarine morphology is regarded as uniform along the coast. We apply a semi-variogram approach, which expresses decreased spatial correlation of the nearshore submarine morphology with alongshore distance, to quantify relaxation distances. We apply this morphological variable to analyse 225 measured shore-normal submarine profiles at 500 m intervals in three distinct sites of the tideless, wave-dominated southern Baltic coast: Swina, Łeba, and Hel. The relaxation distances of these three sites are approximately 4500 m, 3000 m, and 2200 m. Of the three sites, Swina has the smoothest nearshore submarine morphology and the weakest wave energy. The relaxation distances of different quasi-straight segments at each site appear similar but those at different sites decrease with enlarged morphological perturbations, which are residuals resulting from detrending the shore-normal profiles. The standard deviations of these morphological perturbations are correlated with the incidence wave angles and wave energy. We also found that large perturbations (such as longshore bars and channels) have a significant impact on the estimation of underwater volume using shore-normal profile trends. Therefore, relaxation distance can indicate morphological smoothness, the length of shore-parallel uniform nearshore submarine morphology, and the impact of local processes on submarine morphology.},
   keywords = {Nearshore submarine morphology
Alongshore uniformity
Semi-variogram approach
Relaxation distance},
   ISSN = {0169-555X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.11.018},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X18304677},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2075,
   author = {Deng, Junjie and Zhang, Wenyan and Harff, Jan and Schneider, Ralf and Dudzinska-Nowak, Joanna and Terefenko, Pawel and Giza, Andrzej and Furmanczyk, Kazimierz},
   title = {A numerical approach for approximating the historical morphology of wave-dominated coasts—A case study of the Pomeranian Bight, southern Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Geomorphology},
   volume = {204},
   pages = {425-443},
   abstract = {Comparison between historical maps from the 1900s, 1980s and a modern map from the 2000s of the Pomeranian Bight at the southern Baltic Sea indicates that a major part of the coastline has been suffering continuous erosion. This also holds for a major part of other coasts on a global scale. Quantifying coastal geomorphological changes on a decadal-to-centennial temporal scale thus needs to be intensified for coastal protection activities and integrated coastal zone management. This study applies an estimation of sediment mass balance including the investigation of sediment source-to-sink transport. In the case of absent historical survey data, a numerical approach, namely the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM), is developed to approximate the historical morphology and to estimate sediment budget of wave-dominated coasts based on the information of historical coastline configuration derived from maps, a high-resolution modern Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and relative sea-level change. The basic concept of the model is a dynamic equilibrium of the coastal cross-shore profiles adapting to sediment mass balancing of a semi-enclosed coastal area, in which the unknown parameters of the cross-shore profile shapes are calculated by numerical iterations. The model is applied at the Pomeranian Bight, in order to validate its capability in reflecting the pattern of bed level change and estimating sediment mass volume. Two tests of the model are conducted in approximating historical DEMs in 1980s and ca. 1900. The changes of approximated DEMs from past to present are then respectively compared with the ones derived from a nautical sea chart in 1980s, and the ones produced by a complex morphodynamic model that uses the approximated DEM at ca. 1900 as a starting point to hindcast the coastal morphological evolution of the research area. The deposition/erosion patterns along the coastline are consistent in both comparisons. The pre-conditions and limitations of the model are discussed in detail. The model proposed here can serve as a useful tool for coastal morphological studies and potential applications for the future projection of coastal morphogenesis.},
   keywords = {Coastal morphology
Dynamic equilibrium
Sediment budget analysis
Coastline configuration
Climate driving forces
Modeling},
   ISSN = {0169-555X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.08.023},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X13004285},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1713,
   author = {der Linden, Paul and Mitchell JFB, editors},
   title = {ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts-Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2752,
   author = {Deser, Clara and Hurrell, James W. and Phillips, Adam S.},
   title = {The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {9},
   pages = {3141-3157},
   abstract = {This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30–50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of simulations covering the period 1920–2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) at 1° spatial resolution. The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member. Thus, internal variability of the NAO imparts substantial uncertainty to future changes in regional climate over the coming decades. To validate the model results, we apply a simple scaling approach that relates the margin-of-error on a trend to the statistics of the interannual variability. In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model’s radiatively-forced response (given by the ensemble-mean of the 40 simulations). The results of this observationally-based estimate are similar to those obtained directly from the CESM ensemble, attesting to the fidelity of the model’s representation of the NAO and the utility of this approach. Finally, we note that the interannual statistics of the NAO and associated surface climate impacts are subject to uncertainty due to sampling fluctuations, even when based on a century of data.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1714,
   author = {Deser, Clara and Phillips, Adam S and Alexander, Michael A and Smoliak, Brian V},
   title = {Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {27},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2271-2296},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2766,
   author = {Dethloff, K. and Rinke, A. and Benkel, A. and Køltzow, M. and Sokolova, E. and Kumar Saha, S. and Handorf, D. and Dorn, W. and Rockel, B. and von Storch, H. and Haugen, J. E. and Røed, L. P. and Roeckner, E. and Christensen, J. H. and Stendel, M.},
   title = {A dynamical link between the Arctic and the global climate system},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {33},
   number = {3},
   pages = {L03703},
   abstract = {By means of simulations with a global coupled AOGCM it is shown that changes in the polar energy sink region can exert a strong influence on the mid- and high-latitude climate by modulating the strength of the mid-latitude westerlies and storm tracks. It is found, that a more realistic sea-ice and snow albedo treatment changes the ice-albedo feedback and the radiative exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean-sea-ice system. The planetary wave energy fluxes in the middle troposphere of mid-latitudes between 30 and 50°N are redistributed, which induces perturbations in the zonal and meridional planetary wave trains from the tropics over the mid-latitudes into the Arctic. It is shown, that the improved parameterization of Arctic sea-ice and snow albedo can trigger changes in the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation pattern with strong implications for the European climate.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025245},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005GL025245},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2076,
   author = {Devictor, Vincent and van Swaay, Chris and Brereton, Tom and Brotons, Lluís and Chamberlain, Dan and Heliölä, Janne and Herrando, Sergi and Julliard, Romain and Kuussaari, Mikko and Lindström, Åke and Reif, Jiří and Roy, David B. and Schweiger, Oliver and Settele, Josef and Stefanescu, Constantí and Van Strien, Arco and Van Turnhout, Chris and Vermouzek, Zdeněk and WallisDeVries, Michiel and Wynhoff, Irma and Jiguet, Frédéric},
   title = {Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   number = {2},
   pages = {121-124},
   abstract = {An analysis of annual variations in ecological community composition in several thousand plots distributed across Europe over two decades reveals that European birds and butterflies do not keep up with temperature increase and that climate change is resulting in rapid de-synchronization of the two groups at a continental scale.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1347},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1347},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1996,
   author = {Diaz, Robert J. and Rosenberg, Rutger},
   title = {Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {321},
   number = {5891},
   pages = {926},
   abstract = {Dead zones in the coastal oceans have spread exponentially since the 1960s and have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning. The formation of dead zones has been exacerbated by the increase in primary production and consequent worldwide coastal eutrophication fueled by riverine runoff of fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. Enhanced primary production results in an accumulation of particulate organic matter, which encourages microbial activity and the consumption of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters. Dead zones have now been reported from more than 400 systems, affecting a total area of more than 245,000 square kilometers, and are probably a key stressor on marine ecosystems.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1156401},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/321/5891/926.abstract},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2077,
   author = {Dierschke, Volker and Furness, Robert W. and Garthe, Stefan},
   title = {Seabirds and offshore wind farms in European waters: Avoidance and attraction},
   journal = {Biological Conservation},
   volume = {202},
   pages = {59-68},
   abstract = {The extent to which seabirds are displaced from, or attracted to, offshore wind farms (OWFs) is uncertain, but rapid development of OWFs in European waters could conflict with seabird conservation. We review post-construction studies of seabirds at 20 OWFs in European waters to extract and classify evidence for displacement or attraction of 33 different seabird species. Divers and northern gannets showed consistent and strong avoidance behaviour/displacement, and this may also be the case for great crested grebe and northern fulmar. Long-tailed duck, common scoter, Manx shearwater, razorbill, common guillemot, little gull and sandwich tern showed less consistent displacement from OWFs. Several gull species and red-breasted merganser showed weak attraction, while great cormorant and European shag showed strong attraction to OWFs. Other species show little response. Displacement seems mainly to be due to bird responses to OWF structures and appears stronger when turbines are rotating, but could in part be due to boat traffic to and from OWFs. Attraction of cormorants relates at least in part to their use of structures for roosting and for drying plumage, but increases in food availability at OWFs appears to be an important influence for several species.},
   keywords = {Seabirds
Offshore wind farms
Displacement
Attraction
Marine habitat use},
   ISSN = {0006-3207},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.08.016},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320716303196},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3295,
   author = {Dierschke, Volker and Garthe, Stefan and Mendel, Bettina},
   title = {Possible Conflicts between Offshore Wind Farms and Seabirds in the German Sectors of North Sea and Baltic Sea},
   booktitle = {Offshore Wind Energy: Research on Environmental Impacts},
   editor = {Köller, Julia and Köppel, Johann and Peters, Wolfgang},
   publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
   address = {Berlin, Heidelberg},
   pages = {121-143},
   abstract = {In conclusion, it is obvious that depending on avoidance behaviour and collision risk as well as on the proportions of populations affected, the impact of offshore wind farms in the German sector of the North Sea on seabird populations differs considerably. The example of Red-throated Divers and Common Guillemots shows that large parts of the German Bight would be excluded from use by these species. This has to be taken into account in the process of commissioning by authorities and should lead to the application of threshold levels in order to select wind farm sites which have least impact on seabird populations. The above examples demonstrate that in the assessment of the effects of a single wind farm, the habitat loss in addition to the habitat already lost before due to other wind farms must be considered. Therefore, this underscores the need for a cumulative approach when assessing impacts on seabird populations.},
   ISBN = {https://doi.org/978-3-540-34677-7},
   DOI = {10.1007/978-3-540-34677-7_10},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-34677-7_10},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2389,
   author = {Dieterich, C. and Gröger, M. and Arneborg, L. and Andersson, H. C.},
   title = {Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity},
   journal = {Ocean Science},
   volume = {15},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1399-1418},
   note = {OS},
   ISSN = {1812-0792},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019},
   url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/15/1399/2019/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN1939,
   author = {Dieterich, Christian and Schimanke, Semjon and Wang, Shiyu and Väli, Germo and Liu, Ye and Hordoir, Robinson and Höglund, Anders and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Evaluation of the SMHI coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCA4-NEMO},
   institution = {SMHI},
   note = {2016-07-08T15:27:36.654+02:00
http://smhi.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:947918/FULLTEXT01.pdf},
   month = {2013},
   abstract = {Den regionala kopplade atmosfär-is-havsmodellen RCA4-NEMO som utvecklats vid SMHI, utvärderas baserat på en ERA40-återanalys. Utvecklingen av den regionala klimatmodellen fortsätter men en första utvärdering presenteras här för att informera om aktuell status.RCA4-NEMO i aktuell status innehåller två modellkomponenter. Den regionala atmosfärsmodellen RCA4 täcker hela Europa och är tvåvägskopplad till en is-hav-modell för Nordsjön och Östersjön baserat på NEMO. Den används för tillfället för nedskalning av CMIP5-scenarier för detta århundrade för Nordsjön och Östersjön. Som en del av utvärderingen av RCA4-NEMO presenteras en analys och diskussion av hindcast-körning 1970-1999. Modellresulaten jämförs med observationsdata. Temperatur nära ytan och värmeflödet är förhållandevis bra vid en jämförelse med in-situ-mätningar och skattningar baserade på satellitdata. Salthalt och färskvattenutbyte är dock mindre bra. Momentumflödet från atmosfär till hav identifieras som en kritisk process i kopplingen mellan modellerna. Med undantag för färskvattensutbytet mellan atmosfär och hav är de klimatologiska egenskaperna nära ytan och motsvarande flöden jämförbara med klimatologiska observationer för perioden 1970-1999.},
   keywords = {RCA4-NEMO
coupled
regional
climate
atmosphere-ice-ocean
model
RCM
North Sea
Baltic Sea
ERA40
hindcast
simulation
response
Search and rescue},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2623},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1954,
   author = {Dieterich, Christian and Wang, Shiyu and Schimanke, Semjon and Gröger, Matthias and Klein, Birgit and Hordoir, Robinson and Samuelsson, Patrick and Liu, Ye and Axell, Lars and Höglund, Anders},
   title = {Surface heat budget over the North Sea in climate change simulations},
   journal = {Atmosphere},
   volume = {10},
   number = {5},
   pages = {272},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050272},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2437,
   author = {Dietz, Rune and Fort, Jérôme and Sonne, Christian and Albert, Céline and Bustnes, Jan Ove and Christensen, Thomas Kjær and Ciesielski, Tomasz Maciej and Danielsen, Jóhannis and Dastnai, Sam and Eens, Marcel and Erikstad, Kjell Einar and Galatius, Anders and Garbus, Svend-Erik and Gilg, Olivier and Hanssen, Sveinn Are and Helander, Björn and Helberg, Morten and Jaspers, Veerle L. B. and Jenssen, Bjørn Munro and Jónsson, Jón Einar and Kauhala, Kaarina and Kolbeinsson, Yann and Kyhn, Line Anker and Labansen, Aili Lage and Larsen, Martin Mørk and Lindstøm, Ulf and Reiertsen, Tone K. and Rigét, Frank F. and Roos, Anna and Strand, Jakob and Strøm, Hallvard and Sveegaard, Signe and Søndergaard, Jens and Sun, Jiachen and Teilmann, Jonas and Therkildsen, Ole Roland and Thórarinsson, Thorkell Lindberg and Tjørnløv, Rune Skjold and Wilson, Simon and Eulaers, Igor},
   title = {A risk assessment of the effects of mercury on Baltic Sea, Greater North Sea and North Atlantic wildlife, fish and bivalves},
   journal = {Environment International},
   volume = {146},
   pages = {106178},
   abstract = {A wide range of species, including marine mammals, seabirds, birds of prey, fish and bivalves, were investigated for potential population health risks resulting from contemporary (post 2000) mercury (Hg) exposure, using novel risk thresholds based on literature and de novo contamination data. The main geographic focus is on the Baltic Sea, while data from the same species in adjacent waters, such as the Greater North Sea and North Atlantic, were included for comparative purposes. For marine mammals, 23% of the groups, each composing individuals of a specific sex and maturity from the same species in a specific study region, showed Hg-concentrations within the High Risk Category (HRC) and Severe Risk Category (SRC). The corresponding percentages for seabirds, fish and bivalves were 2.7%, 25% and 8.0%, respectively, although fish and bivalves were not represented in the SRC. Juveniles from all species showed to be at no or low risk. In comparison to the same species in the adjacent waters, i.e. the Greater North Sea and the North Atlantic, the estimated risk for Baltic populations is not considerably higher. These findings suggest that over the past few decades the Baltic Sea has improved considerably with respect to presenting Hg exposure to its local species, while it does still carry a legacy of elevated Hg levels resulting from high neighbouring industrial and agricultural activity and slow water turnover regime.},
   keywords = {Biological effect
Hg
Marine mammal
Seabird
Bird of prey
Risk threshold},
   ISSN = {0160-4120},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.106178},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020321334},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2079,
   author = {Dietz, Rune and Teilmann, Jonas and Andersen, Signe M. and Rigét, Frank and Olsen, Morten T.},
   title = {Movements and site fidelity of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in Kattegat, Denmark, with implications for the epidemiology of the phocine distemper virus},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {70},
   number = {1},
   pages = {186-195},
   abstract = {Dietz, R., Teilmann, J., Andersen S. M. Rigét, F., and Olsen, M. T. 2013. Movements and site fidelity of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in Kattegat, Denmark, with implications for the epidemiology of the phocine distemper virus. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70:186–195.Twenty-seven harbour seals were caught and tagged at the island of Anholt in central Kattegat, Denmark, the epicentre of the phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreaks in 1988 and 2002 that killed 50–60% of the populations. The satellite tagging shows that harbour seals from Anholt moved widely across Kattegat with a maximum distance of 249 km from the tagging haul-out site. Overall, females travelled over a wider area compared with males [90% kernel home range (KHR) females, 5189 km2; males, 3293 km2). KHR calculated for yearlings (6414 km2) is larger than for subadults (2534 km2), which again is larger than for adult seals (1713 km2), showing a strong site fidelity, indicating limited gene flow between haul-out sites. Distances moved and home range sizes increased across autumn, peaked in February–March, and decreased through spring. During the breeding season in spring, all seals were very stationary around Anholt. The onset of the PDV epizootics in 1988 and 2002 took place when the Anholt harbour seals congregate on the Island during April. Anholt seal were also documented to have contact with infected seal locations at Hesselø, Læsø, and the Swedish west coast, although this contact takes place during winter prior to the documented summer outbreaks.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss144},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss144},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3161,
   author = {Dinesen, Grete E. and Neuenfeldt, Stefan and Kokkalis, Alexandros and Lehmann, Andreas and Egekvist, Josefine and Kristensen, Kasper and Munk, Peter and Hüssy, Karin and Støttrup, Josianne G.},
   title = {Cod and climate: a systems approach for sustainable fisheries management of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in coastal Danish waters},
   journal = {Journal of Coastal Conservation},
   volume = {23},
   number = {5},
   pages = {943-958},
   abstract = {This study applied the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) to address the issue of declining Atlantic cod fishery in coastal areas. Interviews of 58 fishers from 26 harbours and meetings with national fisheries organisations and managers revealed the perception of an offshore movement of coastal cod. Numerical modelling based on fishing survey data did not substantiate these perceptions in the data-poor coastal waters. However, Data Storage Tag (DST) information combined with bottom sea water temperature data from the spatio-temporal hydrodynamic Baltic Sea Ice-Ocean Model showed changes in potential cod habitat distribution in the Skagerrak-Kattegat and western Baltic from 1979 to 2016. Subsequently, cod habitats were defined in three categories: (i) potentially suitable (T ≤ 12 °C); (ii) episodic (12 < T ≤ 16 °C); and (iii) unsuitable (T > 16 °C). The environmental changes were linked to the socio-economic component of cod fishery. Cod catches (weight and monetary value) were retrieved using logbook information and data from the Vessel Monitoring System (VMS, 2005–2016) and the Automatic Identification System (AIS, 2006-2016). General additive modelling significantly showed the largest proportion of catches took place in the potentially suitable habitat whereas catches were lower in the episodic habitat and rare in the unsuitable habitat. The results of this first large-scale SAF application are highly valuable for adapting existing fisheries management by: (i) providing information on habitat shrinkage for Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) based stock assessments; (ii) adding a spatio-temporal dimension for coastal productivity relative to the vessel-based Individual Transferable Quota (ITQ) system; and (iii) providing a predictive scenario simulation tool for sustainable management under changing environmental conditions.},
   ISSN = {1874-7841},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-019-00711-0},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-019-00711-0},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3116,
   author = {Dippner, J. W. and Hänninen, J. and Kuosa, H. and Vuorinen, I.},
   title = {The influence of climate variability on zooplankton abundance in the Northern Baltic Archipelago Sea (SW Finland)},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {58},
   number = {3},
   pages = {569-578},
   abstract = {Mesozooplankton data were collected monthly from 1966 to 1984 in the Northern Baltic Archipelago Sea. Interannual variability of the abundance of different species were related to climate variability using a multivariate regression model. The results suggest that in the Archipelago Sea the interannual variability during spring and summertime of small zooplankton species such as Acartia spp. and Eurytemora affinis is controlled by the climate variability during winter time. No correlations with large scale climate patterns have been detected for the abundance of larger zooplankton, which seems to be controlled by the grazing pressure of herring. A significantly high correlation between the anomalies of recruitment of spring herring and the copepodites of Pseudocalanus minutus elongatus indicates the top-down control for this zooplankton species.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2001.1048},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1006/jmsc.2001.1048},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1536,
   author = {Dippner, Joachim W and Kornilovs, Georgs and Sidrevics, Ludwigs},
   title = {Long-term variability of mesozooplankton in the Central Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {25},
   number = {1},
   pages = {23-31},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(00)00006-3},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2038,
   author = {Dippner, Joachim W. and Fründt, Birte and Hammer, Cornelius},
   title = {Lake or Sea? The Unknown Future of Central Baltic Sea Herring},
   journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
   volume = {7},
   number = {143},
   abstract = {The understanding of natural variability of harvestable fish stocks is of fundamental interest for their management; however, time series are often biased by the impact of fisheries. Observations suggest that the mean weight of central Baltic Sea herring (Clupea harengus), a quantity unbiased by fisheries, is indirectly influenced by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) via a complex mediator chain, in which a transition from a marine to a freshwater state plays a major role. This observed trend is also projected for the future in regional climate change scenarios. The consequence of increasing precipitation is a reduction in the marine habitat, a change in the prey community and a decrease in the mean weight of 3-year-old central Baltic Sea herring from 50 to 70 g in the late 1970s to 25–30 g today. The reduction in weight over this period represents a reduction in landings of approximately one million tons of herring and an economic loss of the order of €100 million.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea herring,climate variability,statistical downscaling,Wavelet analyses,Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {2296-701X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00143},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fevo.2019.00143},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2438,
   author = {Dippner, Joachim W. and Vuorinen, Ilppo and Daunys, Darius and Flinkman, Juha and Halkka, Antti and Köster, Friedrich W. and Lehikoinen, Esa and MacKenzie, Brian R. and Möllmann, Christian and Møhlenberg, Flemming and Olenin, Sergej and Schiedek, Doris and Skov, Henrik and Wasmund, Norbert},
   title = {Climate-related Marine Ecosystem Change},
   booktitle = {Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg},
   address = {Berlin, Heidelberg},
   pages = {309-377},
   abstract = {This chapter deals with climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. The Baltic Sea is often described as one of the world’s largest brackish water bodies. It has a unique combination of oceanographic, climatic, and geographic features. Most important in this context is: the sea is a nearly enclosed area having a water residence time of 30 years, due to restricted water exchange through the Danish Straits. It is situated in northern Europe and has, therefore, some arctic characteristics and a pronounced seasonality. It is affected alternately by continental and marine climatic effects. It has a catchment area approximately four times larger than the sea itself, while it is as the same time very shallow, with an average depth of only 56 m, having thus a relatively small water body. Seasonal vertical mixing of the water reaches a depth of 30–50 m and contributes to resuspension of nutrients and pollutants. In deeper parts, a permanent halocline appears, below which anoxia is common and interrupted only by major inflows of North Sea water.},
   ISBN = {978-3-540-72786-6},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6_5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6_5},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3187,
   author = {Dodson, J. J. and Daigle, G. and Hammer, C. and Polte, P. and Kotterba, P. and Winkler, G. and Zimmermann, C.},
   title = {Environmental determinants of larval herring (Clupea harengus) abundance and distribution in the western Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {64},
   number = {1},
   pages = {317-329},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11042},
   abstract = {Abstract The analysis of the abundance and distribution of the early life-history stages of the western Baltic spring-spawning herring population, spanning 23?yr, revealed that the abundance of yolk-sac larvae was strongly spatially structured and significantly more abundant during the optimal temperature window for viable hatch of herring larvae (9°C to 13°C). The percentage of time encompassing this optimal temperature window exhibited a major contraction between 1995 and 2000 that may have contributed to reducing the supply of yolk-sac larvae and ultimately contributed to reducing recruitment observed after 2000. Temperature also significantly influenced the abundance of preflexion and flexion larvae, defining dome-shaped responses with maximum abundances observed between 10.27°C and 13.43°C and between 13.68°C and 18.53°C, respectively. The abundances of postflexion stage larvae were greatest at temperatures exceeding 14°C with no apparent decline in abundance at temperatures of up to 20°C. Temperature also played a significant role in influencing the abundance of larvae through its interaction with the abundance of the preceding developmental stage and provided evidence of stage-specific temperature-related mortality. There was also evidence of reduced survival during the preflexion?flexion transition in cohorts produced early in the season relative to those cohorts produced later. Although phenologically plastic species such as herring may be able to alter the dates of spawning, thus partially mitigating the effects of increasing rates of spring warming, constriction of the temperature windows for successful hatching and subsequent ontogenetic development may not be so easily mitigated by changes in phenology.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11042},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11042},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2884,
   author = {Doherty, Ruth M. and Heal, Mathew R. and O’Connor, Fiona M.},
   title = {Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality},
   journal = {Environmental Health},
   volume = {16},
   number = {1},
   pages = {118},
   abstract = {This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH4) abundances lead to increases in background O3 that offset the O3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O3 – termed the O3 climate penalty – especially in southern Europe. The O3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O3 distribution, such as daily maximum O3. Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.},
   ISSN = {1476-069X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-017-0325-2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2776,
   author = {Dong, Buwen and Sutton, Rowan T. and Shaffrey, Len},
   title = {Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {48},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1537-1554},
   abstract = {Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June–August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1869,
   author = {Donnelly, C and Arheimer, B and Capell, R and Dahne, J and Strömqvist, J},
   title = {Regional overview of nutrient load in Europe–challenges when using a large-scale model approach, E-HYPE},
   journal = {Proceedings of the H04, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly},
   volume = {4},
   pages = {49-58},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1715,
   author = {Donnelly, Chantal and Greuell, Wouter and Andersson, Jafet and Gerten, Dieter and Pisacane, Giovanna and Roudier, Philippe and Ludwig, Fulco},
   title = {Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {143},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {13-26},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1971-7},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1716,
   author = {Donnelly, Chantal and Yang, Wei and Dahné, Joel},
   title = {River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {122},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {157-170},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0941-y},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3155,
   author = {Dreier, Norman and Nehlsen, Edgar and Fröhle, Peter and Rechid, Diana and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Pfeifer, Susanne},
   title = {Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections},
   journal = {Water},
   volume = {13},
   number = {2, 167},
   abstract = {In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data.},
   keywords = {REMO
EURO-CORDEX
SWAN
wind–wave correlations
regional climate change projections
average wave conditions
extreme wave events
model spread
variability
uncertainty},
   ISSN = {2073-4441},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w13020167},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2481,
   author = {Dronkers, Job and Stojanovic, Tim},
   title = {Socio-economic Impacts—Coastal Management and Governance},
   booktitle = {North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment},
   editor = {Quante, Markus and Colijn, Franciscus},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {475-488},
   abstract = {Climate change will have important impacts on the North Sea coastal zones. Major threats include sea-level rise and the associated increase in flood risk, coastal erosion and wetland loss, and hazards arising from more frequent storm surges. The North Sea countries—Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK—have developed strategies to deal with these threats. This chapter provides a short introduction to the present adaptation strategies and highlights differences and similarities between them. All the North Sea countries face dilemmas in the implementation of their adaptation strategies. Uncertainty about the extent and timing of climate-driven impacts is a major underlying cause. In view of this, adaptation plans focus on no-regret measures. The most considered measures in the North Sea countries are spatial planning in the coastal zone (set-back lines), wetland restoration, coastal nourishment and reinforcement of existing protection structures. The difficulty of identifying the climate-driven component of observed change in the coastal zone is a critical obstacle to obtaining a widely shared understanding of the urgency of adaptation. A better coordinated and more consistent approach to marine monitoring is crucial for informing policy and the general public and for developing the adaptive capacity of institutions and wider society. A dedicated coastal observation network is not yet in place in the North Sea region.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-39745-0},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_19},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_19},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2952,
   author = {Du, Jiabi and Shen, Jian and Park, Kyeong and Wang, Ya Ping and Yu, Xin},
   title = {Worsened physical condition due to climate change contributes to the increasing hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay},
   journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
   volume = {630},
   pages = {707-717},
   abstract = {There are increasing concerns about the impact of worsened physical condition on hypoxia in a variety of coastal systems, especially considering the influence of changing climate. In this study, an EOF analysis of the DO data for 1985–2012, a long-term numerical simulation of vertical exchange, and statistical analysis were applied to understand the underlying mechanisms for the variation of DO condition in Chesapeake Bay. Three types of analysis consistently demonstrated that both biological and physical conditions contribute equally to seasonal and interannual variations of the hypoxic condition in Chesapeake Bay. We found the physical condition (vertical exchange+temperature) determines the spatial and seasonal pattern of the hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The EOF analysis showed that the first mode, which was highly related to the physical forcings and correlated with the summer hypoxia volume, can be well explained by seasonal and interannual variations of physical variables and biological activities, while the second mode is significantly correlated with the estuarine circulation and river discharge. The weakened vertical exchange and increased water temperature since the 1980s demonstrated a worsened physical condition over the past few decades. Under changing climate (e.g., warming, accelerated sea-level rise, altered precipitation and wind patterns), Chesapeake Bay is likely to experience a worsened physical condition, which will amplify the negative impact of anthropogenic inputs on eutrophication and consequently require more efforts for nutrient reduction to improve the water quality condition in Chesapeake Bay.},
   keywords = {Chesapeake Bay
Hypoxia
Physical control
Temperature
Vertical exchange
Climate},
   ISSN = {0048-9697},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.265},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971830665X},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3355,
   author = {Duarte, Carlos M. and Agusti, Susana and Barbier, Edward and Britten, Gregory L. and Castilla, Juan Carlos and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre and Fulweiler, Robinson W. and Hughes, Terry P. and Knowlton, Nancy and Lovelock, Catherine E. and Lotze, Heike K. and Predragovic, Milica and Poloczanska, Elvira and Roberts, Callum and Worm, Boris},
   title = {Rebuilding marine life},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {580},
   number = {7801},
   pages = {39-51},
   abstract = {Sustainable Development Goal 14 of the United Nations aims to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development”. Achieving this goal will require rebuilding the marine life-support systems that deliver the many benefits that society receives from a healthy ocean. Here we document the recovery of marine populations, habitats and ecosystems following past conservation interventions. Recovery rates across studies suggest that substantial recovery of the abundance, structure and function of marine life could be achieved by 2050, if major pressures—including climate change—are mitigated. Rebuilding marine life represents a doable Grand Challenge for humanity, an ethical obligation and a smart economic objective to achieve a sustainable future.},
   ISSN = {1476-4687},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2146-7},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2146-7},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2997,
   author = {Duarte, Carlos M. and Hendriks, Iris E. and Moore, Tommy S. and Olsen, Ylva S. and Steckbauer, Alexandra and Ramajo, Laura and Carstensen, Jacob and Trotter, Julie A. and McCulloch, Malcolm},
   title = {Is Ocean Acidification an Open-Ocean Syndrome? Understanding Anthropogenic Impacts on Seawater pH},
   journal = {Estuaries and Coasts},
   volume = {36},
   number = {2},
   pages = {221-236},
   abstract = {Ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is a dominant driver of long-term changes in pH in the open ocean, raising concern for the future of calcifying organisms, many of which are present in coastal habitats. However, changes in pH in coastal ecosystems result from a multitude of drivers, including impacts from watershed processes, nutrient inputs, and changes in ecosystem structure and metabolism. Interaction between ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the dynamic regional to local drivers of coastal ecosystems have resulted in complex regulation of pH in coastal waters. Changes in the watershed can, for example, lead to changes in alkalinity and CO2 fluxes that, together with metabolic processes and oceanic dynamics, yield high-magnitude decadal changes of up to 0.5 units in coastal pH. Metabolism results in strong diel to seasonal fluctuations in pH, with characteristic ranges of 0.3 pH units, with metabolically intense habitats exceeding this range on a daily basis. The intense variability and multiple, complex controls on pH implies that the concept of ocean acidification due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions cannot be transposed to coastal ecosystems directly. Furthermore, in coastal ecosystems, the detection of trends towards acidification is not trivial and the attribution of these changes to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is even more problematic. Coastal ecosystems may show acidification or basification, depending on the balance between the invasion of coastal waters by anthropogenic CO2, watershed export of alkalinity, organic matter and CO2, and changes in the balance between primary production, respiration and calcification rates in response to changes in nutrient inputs and losses of ecosystem components. Hence, we contend that ocean acidification from anthropogenic CO2 is largely an open-ocean syndrome and that a concept of anthropogenic impacts on marine pH, which is applicable across the entire ocean, from coastal to open-ocean environments, provides a superior framework to consider the multiple components of the anthropogenic perturbation of marine pH trajectories. The concept of anthropogenic impacts on seawater pH acknowledges that a regional focus is necessary to predict future trajectories in the pH of coastal waters and points at opportunities to manage these trajectories locally to conserve coastal organisms vulnerable to ocean acidification.},
   ISSN = {1559-2731},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-013-9594-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-013-9594-3},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3345,
   author = {Duarte, Carlos M. and Losada, Iñigo J. and Hendriks, Iris E. and Mazarrasa, Inés and Marbà, Núria},
   title = {The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {3},
   number = {11},
   pages = {961-968},
   abstract = {Marine vegetated habitats occupy a small fraction of the ocean surface, but contribute about 50% of the carbon that is buried in marine sediments. In this Review the potential benefits of conservation, restoration and use of these habitats for coastal protection and climate change mitigation are assessed.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1970},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1970},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2517,
   author = {Ducklow, H. W.  and Morán, X. A. G. and Murray, A. E.},
   title = {Bacteria in the Greenhouse: Marine Microbes and Climate Change},
   booktitle = {Environmental Microbiology},
   editor = {Mitchell, Ralph and Gu, Ji‐Dong },
   publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
   address = {Hoboken, N.J., USA},
   pages = {1-31},
   abstract = {Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction: A Microbial Ocean in a Warming World Bacterial Activity and Temperature Climate and Plankton Ecology Summary Acknowledgments References},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470495117.ch1},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9780470495117.ch1},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inbook{RN2439,
   author = {Dudzińska-Nowak, Joanna},
   title = {Morphodynamic Processes of the Swina Gate Coastal Zone Development (Southern Baltic Sea)},
   booktitle = {Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection},
   editor = {Harff, Jan and Furmańczyk, Kazimierz and von Storch, Hans},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {219-255},
   abstract = {Airborne photographs collected in 1938, 1951, 1973, 1996 and 2012 were used to determine the magnitude and spatial distribution of changes of 17 km-long section of the Swina Gate sandy barrier coast (southern Baltic Sea). A dune base line (DBL), beach width (BW) and width of underwater bar zone (WUBZ) were compared and their interactions were determined. Unique in terms of the Polish southern Baltic Sea coasts, during period 1938–2012 Swina Gate was dominated by accumulation, expressed mainly by strong accretion of DBL and WUBZ. Morphodynamic processes were spatially and temporally diverse, even in neighboring, morphologically homogenous areas, referred to the rate of changes which ranged from 0.3 to 3.6 m/year. Two areas of different magnitude changes were distinguished. The largest accumulation was observed in the vicinity of Swina mouth (km 428–419) while from km 419 eastwards, the changes were distinctly smaller. For the periods 1938–1951 and 1996–2012, when the magnitude of growths in the DBL is bigger than 2 m/year, a correlation between DBL changes in relation to the coastline exposure, beach width, DBL elevation and beach slope is clearly visible. The greatest growths in the DBL were noticed on the coast with: NNE orientation; beach width exceeding 60 m; DBL elevation below 1.5 m a.s.l. or exceeding 4.5 m a.s.l.; inclination below 3°. The smallest changes in the DBL, ranging from −1 to +4 m/year were observed on the coast with: NW exposure; beach width below 60 m; DBL elevation between 1.5–4.5 m a.s.l.; inclination above 3°. Noticed high temporal and spatial variations of the coastal changes and character of dune-beach-underwater bar interaction, was correlated with the number of storm events, changes of water level and wave direction and hydrological constructions placement. Results confirms their strong influence to the coast behaviour.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-49894-2},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_11},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_11},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3271,
   author = {Dureuil, Manuel and Boerder, Kristina and Burnett, Kirsti A. and Froese, Rainer and Worm, Boris},
   title = {Elevated trawling inside protected areas undermines conservation outcomes in a global fishing hot spot},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {362},
   number = {6421},
   pages = {1403},
   abstract = {Marine protected areas (MPAs) have increasingly designated globally, with an associated advertised percentage of area protected. However, recent research has made it clear that many MPAs are not actually protecting marine biodiversity. Dureuil et al. focused on European MPAs and found that trawling, one of the most damaging types of fishing, occurs widely in these areas. Furthermore, using sharks and rays as indicator species, they found that many MPAs are failing to protect vulnerable species.Science, this issue p. 1403Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly used as a primary tool to conserve biodiversity. This is particularly relevant in heavily exploited fisheries hot spots such as Europe, where MPAs now cover 29% of territorial waters, with unknown effects on fishing pressure and conservation outcomes. We investigated industrial trawl fishing and sensitive indicator species in and around 727 MPAs designated by the European Union. We found that 59% of MPAs are commercially trawled, and average trawling intensity across MPAs is at least 1.4-fold higher as compared with nonprotected areas. Abundance of sensitive species (sharks, rays, and skates) decreased by 69% in heavily trawled areas. The widespread industrial exploitation of MPAs undermines global biodiversity conservation targets, elevating recent concerns about growing human pressures on protected areas worldwide.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau0561},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/362/6421/1403.abstract},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3436,
   author = {Dutheil, C. and Meier, H. E. M. and Gröger, M. and Börgel, F.},
   title = {Understanding past and future sea surface temperature trends in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea is one of the fastest-warming semi-enclosed seas in the world over the last decades, yielding critical consequences on physical and biogeochemical conditions and on marine ecosystems. Although long-term trends in sea surface temperature (SST) have long been attributed to trends in air temperature, there are however, strong seasonal and sub-basin scale heterogeneities of similar magnitude than the average trend which are not fully explained. Here, using reconstructed atmospheric forcing fields for the period 1850–2008, oceanic climate simulations were performed and analyzed to identify areas of homogenous SST trends using spatial clustering. Our results show that the Baltic Sea can be divided into five different areas of homogeneous SST trends: the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea, the eastern and western Baltic proper, and the southwestern Baltic Sea. A classification tree and sensitivity experiments were carried out to analyze the main drivers behind the trends. While ice cover explains the seasonal north/south warming contrast, the changes in surface winds and air-sea temperature anomalies (along with changes in upwelling frequencies and heat fluxes) explain the SST trends differences between the sub-basins of the southern part of the Baltic Sea. To investigate future warming trends climate simulations were performed for the period 1976–2099 using two RCP scenarios. It was found that the seasonal north/south gradient of SST trends should be reduced in the future due to the vanishing of sea ice, while changes in the frequency of upwelling and heat fluxes explained the lower future east/west gradient of SST trend in fall. Finally, an ensemble of 48 climate change simulations has revealed that for a given RCP scenario the atmospheric forcing is the main source of uncertainty. Our results are useful to better understand the historical and future changes of SST in the Baltic Sea, but also in terms of marine ecosystem and public management, and could thus be used for planning sustainable coastal development.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06084-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06084-1},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2252,
   author = {Dvornikov, A. Y. and Martyanov, S. D. and Ryabchenko, V. A. and Eremina, T. R. and Isaev, A. V. and Sein, D. V.},
   title = {Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant “Hanhikivi-1” on the local thermal regime},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {2},
   pages = {265-282},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-265-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/265/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2838,
   author = {Dyrrdal, Anita Verpe and Saloranta, Tuomo and Skaugen, Thomas and Stranden, Heidi Bache},
   title = {Changes in snow depth in Norway during the period 1961–2010},
   journal = {Hydrology Research},
   volume = {44},
   number = {1},
   pages = {169-179},
   abstract = {Observed trends in annual maximum snow depth (SD) in Norway are analyzed and examined in the context of changes in winter climate from 1961 until today. Trends are evaluated for the 50-year period (1961–2010) and for three 30-year periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010). The analyzed dataset is the most extensive and geographically representative for the country so far, and the analysis gives an up-to-date picture of the recent development in snow accumulation. In regions characterized by colder winter climate long-term trends are found to be positive in general, while short-term trends shift from strongly positive in the first period to predominantly negative in the last period. Variation in SD is here mainly linked to variation in precipitation. In regions of warmer winter climate variation in SD is dominated by temperature, and long-term trends are mainly negative. Short-term trends start out weak overall in the first period but become strongly negative most places in the last period. It is likely that, although more and more regions in Norway will experience declining maximum annual SD in a projected wetter and warmer future climate, some inland and higher mountain regions may still accumulate more snow in the coming decades.},
   ISSN = {0029-1277},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.064},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.064},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1711,
   author = {Déqué, M and Rowell, D P and Lüthi, D and Giorgi, F and Christensen, J H and Rockel, B and Jacob, D and Kjellström, Erik and De Castro, M and van den Hurk, BJJM},
   title = {An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {53-70},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9228-x},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1712,
   author = {Déqué, M and Somot, S and Sanchez-Gomez, E and Goodess, C M and Jacob, D and Lenderink, G and Christensen, O B},
   title = {The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {38},
   number = {5-6},
   pages = {951-964},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1053-x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1717,
   author = {Döscher, Ralf and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {33},
   number = {4},
   pages = {242-248},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.242},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1718,
   author = {Döscher, Ralf and Willén, Ulrika and Jones, Colin and Rutgersson, Anna and Meier, H. E. Markus and Hansson, Ulf and Graham, L Pihl},
   title = {The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {7},
   number = {3},
   pages = {183-192},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1678,
   author = {Döös, Kristofer and Meier, H. E. Markus and Döscher, Ralf},
   title = {The Baltic haline conveyor belt or the overturning circulation and mixing in the Baltic},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {33},
   number = {4},
   pages = {261-266},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.261},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2878,
   author = {Easterling, David R. and Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Wehner, Michael F. and Sun, Liqiang},
   title = {Detection and attribution of climate extremes in the observed record},
   journal = {Weather and Climate Extremes},
   volume = {11},
   pages = {17-27},
   abstract = {We present an overview of practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes. Detection is the identification of a statistically significant change in the extreme values of a climate variable over some period of time. Issues in detection discussed include data quality, coverage, and completeness. Attribution takes that detection of a change and uses climate model simulations to evaluate whether a cause can be assigned to that change. Additionally, we discuss a newer field of attribution, event attribution, where individual extreme events are analyzed for the express purpose of assigning some measure of whether that event was directly influenced by anthropogenic forcing of the climate system.},
   keywords = {Observed climate change
Extremes
Detection
Attribution},
   ISSN = {2212-0947},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.001},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094716300020},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2333,
   author = {Edman, Moa},
   title = {Modelling light attenuation in the Baltic Sea},
   university = {University of Gothenburg, Sweden},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN1936,
   author = {Edman, Moa and Eilola, Kari and Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Meier, H. E. Markus and Wåhlström, Iréne and Arneborg, Lars},
   title = {Nutrient Retention in the Swedish Coastal Zone},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {5},
   number = {415},
   abstract = {In this study, the average nutrient filter efficiency of the entire Swedish coastline is estimated to be about 54% and 70% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. Hence, significantly less than half of the nutrient input from land (defined as river discharge and point sources) can be assumed to be exported from coastal waters to the open sea. However, some coastal areas retained more than 100% of the land load and thus, also filter the open Baltic Sea water. These areas with effective filtering of nutrients have low land load per unit coastal area. The filter efficiency was calculated from a 30-years model simulation (1985-2014) of water exchanges and nutrient cycling within the Swedish coastal zone. The average model skill was evaluated to be good or acceptable compared to observations. In addition to the entire Swedish coast, the retention of total nutrient loads in seven larger coastal sub-regions and selected key sites representing different coastal types was also estimated. The modelled long term nutrient retention was found to be associated with the physical characteristics of a water body, such as the surface area, but also the mean depth and residence time of water. In addition, high retention efficiency is associated with high ratio of sediment nutrient content to pelagic nutrient concentrations. On interannual timescales temporal changes in the coastal nutrient pool can have a large influence on perceived nutrient retention. At one site, the phosphorus filter efficiency was actually negative, i.e. the coastal zone transported more phosphorus to the open Baltic Sea than it received from land. The nutrient removal is most efficient close to land, where the area specific retention efficiency is the highest. The variability of both the filter and retention efficiency between coastal regions was found to be large, with a range of approx. 4-1,200% and 0.1-8.5%, respectively.},
   keywords = {biogeochemistry,Swedish coast,numerical modelling,Nitrogen,Phosphorus,Coastal waters,Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00415},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00415},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1719,
   author = {Edman, Moa K and Anderson, Leif G},
   title = {Effect on pCO2 by phytoplankton uptake of dissolved organic nutrients in the Central and Northern Baltic Sea, a model study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {139},
   pages = {166-182},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.06.004},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1720,
   author = {Edman, Moa K and Omstedt, Anders},
   title = {Modeling the dissolved CO2 system in the redox environment of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {1},
   pages = {74-92},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.1.0074},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2080,
   author = {Eelsalu, Maris and Soomere, Tarmo and Pindsoo, Katri and Lagemaa, Priidik},
   title = {Ensemble approach for projections of return periods of extreme water levels in Estonian waters},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {91},
   pages = {201-210},
   abstract = {The contribution of various drivers to the water level in the eastern Baltic Sea and the presence of outliers in the time series of observed and hindcast water level lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using an ensemble of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. An example of such an ensemble is constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima (annual maxima and stormy season maxima) with a Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The ensemble involves projections based on two data sets (resolution of 6h and 1h) hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) and observed data from four representative sites along the Estonian coast. The observed data are transferred into the grid cells of the RCO model using the HIROMB model and a linear regression. For coastal segments where the observations represent the offshore water level well, the overall appearance of the ensembles signals that the errors of single projections are randomly distributed and that the median of the ensemble provides a sensible projection. For locations where the observed water level involves local effects (e.g. wave set-up) the block maxima are split into clearly separated populations. The resulting ensemble consists of two distinct clusters, the difference between which can be interpreted as a measure of the impact of local features on the water level observations.},
   keywords = {Water level
Extreme value distributions
Ensemble approach
Baltic Sea
Block maxima method
Wave set-up},
   ISSN = {0278-4343},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.09.012},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434314003094},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2518,
   author = {Eero, Margit and Andersson, Helén C. and Almroth-Rosell, Elin and MacKenzie, Brian R.},
   title = {Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {45},
   number = {6},
   pages = {649-660},
   abstract = {Reducing anthropogenic nutrient inputs is a major policy goal for restoring good environmental status of coastal marine ecosystems. However, it is unclear to what extent reducing nutrients would also lower fish production and fisheries yields. Empirical examples of changes in nutrient loads and concurrent fish production can provide useful insights to this question. In this paper, we investigate to what extent a multi-fold increase in nutrient loads from the 1950s to 1980s enhanced forage fish production in the Baltic Sea. We use monitoring data on fish stock dynamics covering the period of the nutrient increase, combined with nutrient concentrations from a 3-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model. The results suggest that nutrient enrichment enhanced the biomass level of forage fish by up to 50 % in some years and areas due to increased body weight of fish. However, the trends in fish biomasses were generally decoupled from changes in nutrient concentrations.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0788-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-016-0788-3},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2786,
   author = {Efremova, Tatiana and Palshin, Nikolay and Zdorovennov, Roman},
   title = {Long-term characteristics of ice phenology in Karelian lakes},
   journal = {Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences},
   volume = {62},
   pages = {33-41},
   keywords = {Ice
Lakes},
   ISSN = {17364728},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2013.04},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1721,
   author = {Eggert, A and Schneider, B},
   title = {A nitrogen source in spring in the surface mixed-layer of the Baltic Sea: evidence from total nitrogen and total phosphorus data},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {148},
   pages = {39-47},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.01.005},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3120,
   author = {Ehlers, A. and Worm, B. and Reusch, T. B. H.},
   title = {Importance of genetic diversity in eelgrass Zostera marina for its resilience to global warming},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {355},
   pages = {1-7},
   note = {10.3354/meps07369},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are far less understood than they are in terrestrial environments. Macrophyte-based coastal ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to global warming, because they often lack species redundancy. We tested whether summer heat waves have negative effects on an ecologically important ecosystem engineer, the eelgrass <I>Zostera marina</I> L., and whether high genotypic diversity may provide resilience in the face of climatic extremes. In a mesocosm experiment, we manipulated genotypic diversity of eelgrass patches fully crossed with water temperature (control vs. temperature stress) over 5 mo. We found a strong negative effect of warming and a positive effect of genotypic diversity on shoot densities of eelgrass. These results suggest that eelgrass meadows and associated ecosystem services will be negatively affected by predicted increases in summer temperature extremes. Genotypic diversity may provide critical response diversity for maintaining seagrass ecosystem functioning, and for adaptation to environmental change.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07369},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v355/p1-7/},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2520,
   author = {Ehrnsten, Eva and Bauer, Barbara and Gustafsson, Bo G.},
   title = {Combined Effects of Environmental Drivers on Marine Trophic Groups – A Systematic Model Comparison},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {6},
   number = {492},
   abstract = {The responses of food webs to simultaneous changes in several environmental drivers are still poorly understood. As a contribution to filling this knowledge gap, we investigated the major pathways through which two interlinked environmental drivers, eutrophication and climate, affect the biomass and community composition of fish and benthic macrofauna. For this aim, we conducted a systematic sensitivity analysis using two models simulating the dynamics of benthic and pelagic food webs in the Baltic Sea. We varied environmental forcing representing primary productivity, oxygen conditions and water temperature in all possible combinations, over a range representative of expected changes during the 21st century. Both models indicated that increased primary productivity leads to biomass increase in all parts of the system, however, counteracted by expanding hypoxia. Effects of temperature were complex, but generally small compared to the other drivers. Similarities across models give confidence in the main results, but we also found differences due to different representations of the food web in the two models. While both models predicted a shift in benthic community composition toward an increased abundance of Limecola (Macoma) balthica with increasing productivity, the effects on deposit-feeding and predatory benthic groups depended on the presence of fish predators in the model. The model results indicate that nutrient loads are a stronger driver of change for ecosystem functions in the Baltic Sea than climate change, but it is important to consider the combined effects of these drivers for proper management of the marine environment.},
   keywords = {Interacting stressors,Benthic fauna,fish,Baltic Sea,Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE),numerical model,sensitivity analysis},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00492},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00492},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2519,
   author = {Ehrnsten, Eva and Norkko, Alf and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Gustafsson, Erik and Gustafsson, Bo G.},
   title = {The meagre future of benthic fauna in a coastal sea—Benthic responses to recovery from eutrophication in a changing climate},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {26},
   number = {4},
   pages = {2235-2250},
   abstract = {Abstract Nutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid-21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15014},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15014},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2521,
   author = {Eichner, Meri and Rost, Björn and Kranz, Sven A.},
   title = {Diversity of ocean acidification effects on marine N2 fixers},
   journal = {Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology},
   volume = {457},
   pages = {199-207},
   abstract = {Considering the important role of N2 fixation for primary productivity and CO2 sequestration, it is crucial to assess the response of diazotrophs to ocean acidification. Previous studies on the genus Trichodesmium suggested a strong sensitivity towards ocean acidification. In view of the large functional diversity in N2 fixers, the objective of this study was to improve our knowledge of the CO2 responses of other diazotrophs. To this end, the single-celled Cyanothece sp. and two heterocystous species, Nodularia spumigena and the symbiotic Calothrix rhizosoleniae, were acclimated to two pCO2 levels (380 vs. 980 μatm). Growth rates, cellular composition (carbon, nitrogen and chlorophyll a) as well as carbon and N2 fixation rates (14C incorporation, acetylene reduction) were measured and compared to literature data on different N2 fixers. The three species investigated in this study responded differently to elevated pCO2, showing enhanced, decreased as well as unaltered growth and production rates. For instance, Cyanothece increased production rates with pCO2, which is in line with the general view that N2 fixers benefit from ocean acidification. Due to lowered growth and production of Nodularia, nitrogen input to the Baltic Sea might decrease in the future. In Calothrix, no significant changes in growth or production could be observed, even though N2 fixation was stimulated under elevated pCO2. Reviewing literature data confirmed a large variability in CO2 sensitivity across diazotrophs. The contrasting response patterns in our and previous studies were discussed with regard to the carbonate chemistry in the respective natural habitats, the mode of N2 fixation as well as differences in cellular energy limitation between the species. The group-specific CO2 sensitivities will impact differently on future biogeochemical cycles of open-ocean environments and systems like the Baltic Sea and should therefore be considered in models estimating climate feedback effects.},
   keywords = {CO
Nitrogen fixation
Symbiotic cyanobacteria},
   ISSN = {0022-0981},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2014.04.015},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022098114001087},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2081,
   author = {Eilola, K. and Gustafsson, B. G. and Kuznetsov, I. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Neumann, T. and Savchuk, O. P.},
   title = {Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {88},
   number = {2},
   pages = {267-284},
   abstract = {Three state-of-the-art coupled physical–biogeochemical models, the BAltic sea Long-Term large-Scale Eutrophication Model (BALTSEM), the Ecological Regional Ocean Model (ERGOM), and the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean circulation model (RCO–SCOBI), are used to calculate changing nutrient and oxygen dynamics in the Baltic Sea. The models are different in that ERGOM and RCO–SCOBI are three-dimensional (3D) circulation models while BALTSEM resolves the Baltic Sea into 13 dynamically interconnected and horizontally integrated sub-basins. The aim is to assess the simulated long-term dynamics and to discuss the response of the coupled physical–biogeochemical models to changing physical conditions and nutrient loadings during the period 1970–2005. We compared the long-term seasonal and annual statistics of inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen from hindcast simulations with those estimated from observations. We also studied the extension of hypoxic bottom areas covered by waters with O2<2ml O2l−1 and cod reproductive volumes comprising waters with salinity >11 and O2>2ml O2l−1. The models reproduce much of the nutrient biogeochemical cycling in the Baltic proper. However, biases are larger in the Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. No model shows outstanding performance in all aspects but instead the ensemble mean results are better than or as good as the results of any of the individual models. Uncertainties are primarily related to differences in the bioavailable fractions of nutrient loadings from land and parameterizations of key processes like sediment fluxes that are presently not well known. Also the uncertainty related to the initialization of the models in the early 1960s influence the modeled biogeochemical cycles during the investigated period.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Numerical modeling
Coupled physical–biogeochemical modeling
Nutrients
Oxygen},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.05.004},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796311001230},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2082,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Impact of saltwater inflows on phosphorus cycling and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: a 3D model study},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {66},
   number = {1},
   pages = {23985},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.23985},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v66.23985},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2391,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Hansen, J. L. S. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Molchanov, M. S. and Ryabchenko, V. A. and Skogen, Morten},
   title = {Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea : A model study. Present and future climate},
   institution = {SMHI},
   note = {2016-07-08T15:27:42.803+02:00},
   month = {2013},
   abstract = {An ensemble of models has been used to assess eutrophication in the North Sea and Baltic Sea in the present and the future climate, using a method suggested in Almroth and Skogen (2010). In the control run, the assessment of eutrophication status according to the integration of the categorized assessment parameters indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas (Fig. 16).The temperature increase by itself will worsen the oxygen condition throughout the area and on top of this; elevated nutrient levels in the whole Baltic will amplify this effect due to elevated primary production. Therefore declining oxygen condition and increasing phytoplankton biomasses will be the main problem causing the areas to be classified as problem areas. In the Western Gotland Basin low oxygen seems to be the sole reason for this classification. In the North Sea, the classification as potential problem areas are due to high nitrate and N:P ratio. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. Also in the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in the projected future climate. Comparing the ECHAM5 driven changes to simulations using the HadCM3 forcing show that; all changes except the surface layer winterDIN in the future climate have the same sign and that; the overall eutrophication status assessment is robust and insensitive to the choice of future scenario.},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2624},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2390,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Hansen, J. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Myrberg, K. and Ryabchenko, V. A. and Skogen, Morten},
   title = {Eutrophication Status Report of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea : A model study Years 2001-2005},
   institution = {SMHI},
   note = {2016-07-08T15:17:58.568+02:00},
   month = {2011},
   abstract = {Följande statusrapport för Nordsjön, Skagerrak, Kattegatt och Östersjön har genomförts avSMHI Sverige, IMR Norge, NERI Danmark, SPBIO Ryssland, och SYKE Finland som del avprojektet “A Baltic and NORth sea Model eutrophication Assessment in a future cLimate”(ABNORMAL), vilket finansierats av the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Sea and Air Group(NMR-HLG). De tidigare NMR-HLG projekten NO COMMENTS och BANSAI fokuseradespå etablering och underhållsstöd till operationella modeller samt utvecklingen av metoder förderas användning till utvärdering av eutrofieringstillstånd. Inom ABNORMAL har frågornavidare fokuserats på användningen av ekologiska modeller för att utvärderaeutrofieringstillståndet in framtida klimat. Viktigaste rönet från studien är det föreslagna sättetatt sammanföra observationer med resultat från en ensemble av ekologiska modeller för attutvärdera eutrofieringstillståndet i dagens klimat under fem olika år (2001-2005).Tröskelvärden och metoder från Oslo and Paris Commissionen (OSPAR) och HelsinkiCommission (HELCOM) används och möjliga förbättringar av metoder diskuteras kort.Bedömningen av eutrofieringstillståndet visar att Kattegatt, de danska sunden, Finska viken,Gotlandsbassängen, samt största delarna av Arkonabassängen, Bornholmsbassängen ochEgentliga Östersjön kan klassificeras som problemområden. Huvuddelen av Nordsjön ochSkagerrak är icke-problem områden medan huvuddelarna av Bottenhavet, Bottenviken, RigaBukten och hela sydöstra kontinentalkusten av Nordsjön kan klassificeras som potentiellaproblemområden.},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2235},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1726,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Almroth, Elin},
   title = {On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {75},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {163-184},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.08.009},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1725,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Mårtensson, Sebastian and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {1},
   pages = {149-154},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054375},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1938,
   author = {Eilola, Kari and Rosell, Elin Almroth and Dieterich, Christian and Fransner, Filippa and Höglund, Anders and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {586-599},
   abstract = {We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical–physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961–2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3307,
   author = {Eklöf, Johan S. and Alsterberg, Christian and Havenhand, Jonathan N. and Sundbäck, Kristina and Wood, Hannah L. and Gamfeldt, Lars},
   title = {Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity},
   journal = {Ecology Letters},
   volume = {15},
   number = {8},
   pages = {864-872},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01810.x},
   abstract = {Abstract Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO 2-enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity.},
   keywords = {Food web
Gammarus locusta
Littorina littorea
marine
mesograzer
metabolic theory of ecology
realistic biodiversity loss
response-effect traits
temperature
Zostera marina},
   ISSN = {1461-023X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01810.x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01810.x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3445,
   author = {Ekman, Martin},
   title = {The world's longest continuous series of sea level observations},
   journal = {Pure Appl. Geophys.},
   volume = {127},
   pages = {73-77},
   year = {1988},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2360,
   author = {Ekman, Martin},
   title = {The changing level of the Baltic Sea during 300 years: a clue to understanding the Earth},
   publisher = {Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics Åland Islands},
   ISBN = {9529252412},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN3377,
   author = {Ekman, Martin and Mäkinen, Jaakko},
   title = {Mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and its transition area to the North Sea: A geodetic solution and comparisons with oceanographic models},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {101},
   number = {C5},
   pages = {11993-11999},
   abstract = {A consistent height system designed for comparisons between geodesy and oceanography is presented for the Baltic Sea area. Mean sea surface topography is computed geodetically in this height system at 42 reliable long-term sea level stations, connected by high-precision levelings, along the coasts of the Baltic Sea, the Kattegat, the Skagerrak, and the adjacent part of the North Sea. Based on this, a map is drawn of the mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea and its transition area to the North Sea. The general agreement between our geodetic solution and recent oceanographic models turns out to be excellent; the discrepancies rarely exceed 2–3 cm. Hence the mean sea surface topography in the Baltic Sea area to a dominating extent is caused by the distribution of salinity. There are two main characteristics of the sea surface topography found here. First, there is a continuous increase of the sea surface height from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea, the height difference between the inner part of the Gulf of Bothnia and the Skagerrak amounting to 35–40 cm. The main reason behind this is the considerable difference in salinity, close to the maximum possible one. Second, there is a steep sea level gradient in the border zone between the Kattegat and the Skagerrak, reaching 2 cm per 10 km. This reflects the salinity front there, separating the brackish Baltic Sea water from the saline North Sea water, and the associated Baltic current. A local maximum in the sea surface can be seen in the Oslo Fiord, reflecting an accumulation of low-salinity water there. An area where there is still no oceanographic model agreeing sufficiently with the geodetic solution is the Belt Sea/southwestern Kattegat.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/96JC00318},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/96JC00318},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2083,
   author = {Ekroos, Johan and Fox, Anthony D and Christensen, Thomas K and Petersen, Ib K and Kilpi, Mikael and Jónsson, Jón E and Green, Martin and Laursen, Karsten and Cervencl, Anja and de Boer, Peter and Nilsson, Leif  and Meissner, Wlodzimierz and Garthe, Stefan   and Ost, Markus },
   title = {Declines amongst breeding Eider Somateria mollissima numbers in the Baltic/Wadden Sea flyway},
   journal = {Ornis Fennica},
   volume = {89},
   number = {2},
   pages = {81-90},
   ISSN = {0030-5685},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2440,
   author = {Elken, Jüri and Lehmann, Andreas and Myrberg, Kai},
   title = {Recent Change - Marine Circulation and Stratification},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {131-144},
   abstract = {This chapter describes recent change in the circulation and stratification of the Baltic Sea. A recent warming trend in sea-surface waters has been clearly demonstrated by in situ measurements, remote sensing data and numerical models. Trends in sea-surface temperatureSea-surface temperature(SST) for the past three to four decades based on remote sensingRemote sensingdata generally agree with trends determined from in situ observations. Models suggest the current warming within the Baltic Sea lies within the range experienced during the past 500 years. The salinity and stratification of the deep waters are strongly linked to the major inflows of North Sea water that occur sporadically and bring high-saline water into the deep layers of the Baltic Sea. The major inflows normally occur during winter and spring and bring cold oxygen-rich waters into the deep basins. Since 1996, large inflows have also occurred during summer, bringing in warm low-oxygen water.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_7},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_7},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3383,
   author = {Elken, Jüri and Malkki, Pentti and Alenius, Pekka and Stipa, Tapani},
   title = {Large halocline variations in the Northern Baltic Proper and associated meso-and basin-scale processes},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {48},
   number = {S},
   pages = {91-117},
   ISSN = {0078-3234},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3114,
   author = {Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Man's Impact on the Ecosystem of the Baltic Sea: Energy Flows Today and at the Turn of the Century},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {18},
   number = {6},
   pages = {326-332},
   abstract = {[The impact of Man on the Baltic ecosystem in the 20th century is summarized by estimating changes in major energy flows, expressed as organic carbon. Recent eutrophication has increased pelagic primary production by an estimated 30-70%, and sedimentation of organic carbon by 70-190%. Above the primary halocline, biomass and production of benthos have increased, while in the deep waters of the Baltic proper, oxygen deficiency has led to the loss of formerly important food chains over nearly $100\ 000\ {\rm km}^{2}$ of bottom. The net result is an approximate doubling of macrobenthic production, but little increase in meiobenthic production. Zooplankton production is thought to have increased less than primary production, perhaps by about a quarter. Fish catches in the Baltic have increased more than tenfold, but this is considered to be due only partly to increased fish production caused by more food for fish. Increased fishing effort and the near extermination of fish-eating Baltic seals, through hunting and pollution, are likely to be about equally important. Today, the Baltic fishery requires about 10% of the primary production in the Baltic to produce its catches, whereas the remnant seal population needs less than 0.1%. At the beginning of this century the fishery required about 1% and the marine mammals an estimated 5% of the primary production.]},
   ISSN = {00447447, 16547209},
   url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4313603},
   year = {1989},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1676,
   author = {Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Understanding Human Impact on the Baltic Ecosystem: Changing Views in Recent Decades},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {30},
   number = {4},
   pages = {222-231},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-30.4.222},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2085,
   author = {Emeis, K. and Christiansen, C. and Edelvang, K. and Jähmlich, S. and Kozuch, J. and Laima, M. and Leipe, T. and Löffler, A. and Lund-Hansen, L. C. and Miltner, A. and Pazdro, K. and Pempkowiak, J. and Pollehne, F. and Shimmield, T. and Voss, M. and Witt, G.},
   title = {Material transport from the near shore to the basinal environment in the southern Baltic Sea: II: Synthesis of data on origin and properties of material},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {35},
   number = {3},
   pages = {151-168},
   abstract = {The Pomeranian Bight (southern Baltic Sea) is a mixing zone between waters of the Baltic Proper and the river Oder, which drains a densely populated and highly industrialised catchment of central Europe. The bight is a nondepositional area, and all material produced in its water column, from erosion of strata at the seafloor and cliffs, and delivered by rivers, is transported near the seafloor to the depositional areas of the Arkona, Bornholm and Gdansk basins. In this contribution, we assess the origin, transformation and mass fluxes of material through the bight based on an integrated field study conducted in the period 1996–1998. The transport mechanism is by wave- and current-induced resuspension and settling cycles, which effectively enrich organic-rich material and associated substances (organic pollutants, heavy metals) in deeper water; the estimated transport time is less than 6 months. The phases in which the material is transported are suspended matter in the water column, a particle- and aggregate-rich benthic boundary layer of <1 m above the seafloor and a layer of fluffy material fed from the two other sources that covers the sandy near-shore sediments as a discrete phase; it collects up to 130 g m−2 of particulate material after quiescent periods lasting several days. It is easily resuspended at shear velocities around 5 cm s−1 and is recycled into the suspended matter and benthic boundary layer pools of material. In deeper waters (>20 m water depth), the fluffy layer is not readily distinguished from the underlying soft, organic-rich sediment and the change in physical and chemical properties is gradual. The organic matter passing through the coastal zone in the southern Baltic is unaffected by biological or chemical modifications in composition. We find no evidence for a preferential removal of nitrogen or phosphorus, even if the speciation of phosphorus changes from biological compounds to minerals. The compositional changes which we see, i.e., in the nitrogen isotopic composition and in trace metal concentrations, are mainly caused by dilution of the river signal. In the case of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), different solubilities and compound stabilities affect the concentrations as well and result in the enhanced accumulation of stable compounds in Arkona Basin. Seasonal changes are pronounced in the amount of freshly produced biomass, as is seen in phytoplankton pigments and their degradation products, but significant amounts of fresh biomass are swept out of the bay and supply the Arkona Basin benthic community with additional nutrition. An imbalance in carbon import and export emerges from mass balance calculations: 50,000 t of organic carbon per year may be exported, which cannot be accounted for by known sources in the river or the bight. We may exclude erosion of early Holocene peat exposures at the seafloor as a possible source, but cannot exclude either errors in our export estimate, or large-scale erosion of other organic carbon pools, for example, the stock of seaweed and its substrate in the Greifswalder Bodden.},
   keywords = {Sediment dynamics
Material transport
Stable isotopes
Nutrient elements
Pollution
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(02)00127-6},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796302001276},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2086,
   author = {Emeis, Kay-Christian and van Beusekom, Justus and Callies, Ulrich and Ebinghaus, Ralf and Kannen, Andreas and Kraus, Gerd and Kröncke, Ingrid and Lenhart, Hermann and Lorkowski, Ina and Matthias, Volker and Möllmann, Christian and Pätsch, Johannes and Scharfe, Mirco and Thomas, Helmuth and Weisse, Ralf and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {The North Sea — A shelf sea in the Anthropocene},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {141},
   pages = {18-33},
   abstract = {Global and regional change clearly affects the structure and functioning of ecosystems in shelf seas. However, complex interactions within the shelf seas hinder the identification and unambiguous attribution of observed changes to drivers. These include variability in the climate system, in ocean dynamics, in biogeochemistry, and in shelf sea resource exploitation in the widest sense by societies. Observational time series are commonly too short, and resolution, integration time, and complexity of models are often insufficient to unravel natural variability from anthropogenic perturbation. The North Sea is a shelf sea of the North Atlantic and is impacted by virtually all global and regional developments. Natural variability (from interannual to multidecadal time scales) as response to forcing in the North Atlantic is overlain by global trends (sea level, temperature, acidification) and alternating phases of direct human impacts and attempts to remedy those. Human intervention started some 1000years ago (diking and associated loss of wetlands), expanded to near-coastal parts in the industrial revolution of the mid-19th century (river management, waste disposal in rivers), and greatly accelerated in the mid-1950s (eutrophication, pollution, fisheries). The North Sea is now a heavily regulated shelf sea, yet societal goals (good environmental status versus increased uses), demands for benefits and policies diverge increasingly. Likely, the southern North Sea will be re-zoned as riparian countries dedicate increasing sea space for offshore wind energy generation — with uncertain consequences for the system's environmental status. We review available observational and model data (predominantly from the southeastern North Sea region) to identify and describe effects of natural variability, of secular changes, and of human impacts on the North Sea ecosystem, and outline developments in the next decades in response to environmental legislation, and in response to increased use of shelf sea space.},
   keywords = {North Sea
Long-term development
Natural variability
Eutrophication
Pollution
Fisheries
Economic uses
Policies},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.03.012},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314000724},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2445,
   author = {EMEP},
   title = {Transboundary particulate matter, photo-oxidants, acidifying and eutrophying components},
   institution = {Norwegian Meteorological Institute},
   type = {EMEP Status Report 1/2019},
   abstract = {This report presents the EMEP activities in 2018 and 2019 in relation to transboundary fluxes of particulate matter, photo-oxidants, acidifying and eutrophying components, with focus on results for 2017. It presents major results of the activities related to emission inventories, observations and modelling. The report also introduces specific relevant research activities addressing EMEP key challenges, as well as technical developments of the observation and modelling capacities.},
   url = {https://emep.int/publ/reports/2019/EMEP_Status_Report_1_2019.pdf},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2018,
   author = {Enfield, David B. and Mestas-Nuñez, Alberto M. and Trimble, Paul J.},
   title = {The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {28},
   number = {10},
   pages = {2077-2080},
   abstract = {North Atlantic sea surface temperatures for 1856–1999 contain a 65–80 year cycle with a 0.4 °C range, referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by Kerr [2000]. AMO warm phases occurred during 1860–1880 and 1940–1960, and cool phases during 1905–1925 and 1970–1990. The signal is global in scope, with a positively correlated co-oscillation in parts of the North Pacific, but it is most intense in the North Atlantic and covers the entire basin there. During AMO warmings most of the United States sees less than normal rainfall, including Midwest droughts in the 1930s and 1950s. Between AMO warm and cool phases, Mississippi River outflow varies by 10% while the inflow to Lake Okeechobee, Florida varies by 40%. The geographical pattern of variability is influenced mainly by changes in summer rainfall. The winter patterns of interannual rainfall variability associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation are also significantly changed between AMO phases.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2000gl012745},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2000GL012745},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3020,
   author = {Engardt, Magnuz and Simpson, David and Schwikowski, Margit and Granat, Lennart},
   title = {Deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe 1900–2050. Model calculations and comparison to historical observations},
   journal = {Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
   volume = {69},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1328945},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2017.1328945},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2017.1328945},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3305,
   author = {Eriksson, Britas Klemens and Ljunggren, Lars and Sandström, Alfred and Johansson, Gustav and Mattila, Johanna and Rubach, Anja and Råberg, Sonja and Snickars, Martin},
   title = {Declines in predatory fish promote bloom-forming macroalgae},
   journal = {Ecological Applications},
   volume = {19},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1975-1988},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0964.1},
   abstract = {In the Baltic Sea, increased dominance of ephemeral and bloom-forming algae is presently attributed to increased nutrient loads. Simultaneously, coastal predatory fish are in strong decline. Using field data from nine areas covering a 700-km coastline, we examined whether formation of macroalgal blooms could be linked to the composition of the fish community. We then tested whether predator or nutrient availability could explain the field patterns in two small-scale field experiments, by comparing joint effects on algal net production from nutrient enrichment with agricultural fertilizer and exclusion of larger predatory fish with cages. We also manipulated the presence of invertebrate grazers. The abundance of piscivorous fish had a strong negative correlation with the large-scale distribution of bloom-forming macroalgae. Areas with depleted top-predator communities displayed massive increases in their prey, small-bodied fish, and high covers of ephemeral algae. Combining the results from the two experiments showed that excluding larger piscivorous fish: (1) increased the abundance of small-bodied predatory fish; (2) changed the size distribution of the dominating grazers, decreasing the smaller gastropod scrapers; and (3) increased the net production of ephemeral macroalgae. Effects of removing top predators and nutrient enrichment were similar and additive, together increasing the abundance of ephemeral algae many times. Predator effects depended on invertebrate grazers; in the absence of invertebrates there were no significant effects of predator exclusion on algal production. Our results provide strong support for regional declines of larger predatory fish in the Baltic Sea promoting algal production by decreasing invertebrate grazer control. This highlights the importance of trophic interactions for ecosystem responses to eutrophication. The view emerges that to achieve management goals for water quality we need to consider the interplay between top-down and bottom-up processes in future ecosystem management of marine resources.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
bloom-forming algae
coastal management
eutrophication
mesopredator release
nutrient enrichment experiment
piscivorous fish
trophic cascades},
   ISSN = {1051-0761},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0964.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0964.1},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3306,
   author = {Eriksson, Britas Klemens and Sieben, Katrin and Eklöf, Johan and Ljunggren, Lars and Olsson, Jens and Casini, Michele and Bergström, Ulf},
   title = {Effects of Altered Offshore Food Webs on Coastal Ecosystems Emphasize the Need for Cross-Ecosystem Management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {40},
   number = {7},
   pages = {786},
   abstract = {By mainly targeting larger predatory fish, commercial fisheries have indirectly promoted rapid increases in densities of their prey; smaller predatory fish like sprat, stickleback and gobies. This process, known as mesopredator release, has effectively transformed many marine offshore basins into mesopredator-dominated ecosystems. In this article, we discuss recent indications of trophic cascades on the Atlantic and Baltic coasts of Sweden, where increased abundances of mesopredatory fish are linked to increased nearshore production and biomass of ephemeral algae. Based on synthesis of monitoring data, we suggest that offshore exploitation of larger predatory fish has contributed to the increase in mesopredator fish also along the coasts, with indirect negative effects on important benthic habitats and coastal water quality. The results emphasize the need to rebuild offshore and coastal populations of larger predatory fish to levels where they regain their control over lower trophic levels and important links between offshore and coastal systems are restored.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0158-0},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0158-0},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1727,
   author = {Eriksson, Christin and Omstedt, Anders and Overland, James E and Percival, Donald B and Mofjeld, Harold O},
   title = {Characterizing the European Sub-Arctic Winter Climate since 1500 Using Ice, Temperature, and Atmospheric Circulation Time Series},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {20},
   number = {21},
   pages = {5316-5334},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1461.1},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3111,
   author = {Eriksson Wiklund, A. K. and Dahlgren, K. and Sundelin, B. and Andersson, A.},
   title = {Effects of warming and shifts of pelagic food web structure on benthic productivity in a coastal marine system},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {396},
   pages = {13-25},
   note = {10.3354/meps08290},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: It has been predicted that climate change will lead to increased temperature and precipitation in northern latitudes, which in turn may lead to brownification of coastal sea areas. This will increase the importance of the heterotrophic microbial food web in areas like the northern Baltic Sea. Such a structural change in the pelagic food web would hamper benthic productivity, since microheterotrophs have lower settling rates than phytoplankton. We tested how variation in temperature and alteration of the pelagic food web structure affected the productivity of a key benthic species, the amphipod <i>Monoporeia affinis</i>, and the pelagic-benthic food web efficiency (FWE). Using water from the northern Baltic Sea, a mesocosm experiment was performed in which the temperature was altered by 5°C. The structure of the pelagic food web changed from one based on algae to one based on bacteria. Amphipod productivity was 3 times higher and FWE was 25 times higher in the algae than in the bacteria-based food web, showing that an altered pelagic food web will have severe effects on benthic productivity. Temperature variation, on the other hand, did not cause any changes in either growth of <i>M. affinis</i> or FWE. Our data indicate that indirect effects of climate change, leading to structural changes in the pelagic food web, will have much more severe effects on benthic productivity than the direct effect of increased temperature.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08290},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v396/p13-25/},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2839,
   author = {Estilow, T. W. and Young, A. H. and Robinson, D. A.},
   title = {A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data record for climate studies and monitoring},
   journal = {Earth System Science Data},
   volume = {7},
   number = {1},
   pages = {137-142},
   note = {ESSD
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/7/137/2015/essd-7-137-2015.pdf},
   ISSN = {1866-3516},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-137-2015},
   url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/7/137/2015/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN3067,
   author = {European Climate, Foundation},
   title = {Vol 1: Technical and Economic Assessment},
   note = {(www.roadmap2050.eu/project/roadmap-2050)},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN3361,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {Nature-based solutions},
   number = {22.07.2021},
   url = {https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/research-area/environment/nature-based-solutions_en},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@techreport{RN3135,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {COUNCIL DIRECTIVE 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora.},
   year = {1992},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3415,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {DIRECTIVE  98/70/EC  OF  THE  EUROPEAN  PARLIAMENT  AND  OF  THE  COUNCIL of  13  October  1998 relating  to  the  quality  of  petrol  and diesel  fuels  and  amending  Council Directive  93/12/EEC},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3279,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {DIRECTIVE 2000/60/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3133,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {DIRECTIVE 2008/56/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 17 June 2008, establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive) (Text with EEA relevance)},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3068,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {EU Energy, transport and GHG emission trends to 2050},
   note = {European Commission},
   type = {Reference Scenario 2013 Report},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3134,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {COMMISSION DECISION (EU) 2017/848 of 17 May 2017 laying down criteria and methodological standards on good environmental status of marine waters and specifications and standardised methods for monitoring and assessment, and repealing Decision 2010/477/EU.},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3413,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {DIRECTIVE (EU) 2018/2001 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 11 December 2018 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (recast) (Text with EEA relevance)},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3414,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {REGULATION (EU) 2018/1999 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 11 December 2018 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, amending Regulations (EC) No 663/2009 and (EC) No 715/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Directives 94/22/EC, 98/70/EC, 2009/31/EC, 2009/73/EC, 2010/31/EU, 2012/27/EU and 2013/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council, Council Directives 2009/119/EC and (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council (Text with EEA relevance)},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3292,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {Study on Baltic offshore wind energy cooperation under BEMIP - Final report. ENER/C1/2018-456, June 2019},
   institution = {Directorate C - Renewables, Research and Innovation, Energy Efficiency},
   note = {European Commission},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2833/864823},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3301,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {An EU Strategy to harness the potential of offshore renewable energy for a climate neutral future},
   note = {European Commission},
   type = {COM(2020) 741 final},
   url = {https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0741&from=EN},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3302,
   author = {European Commission, .},
   title = {Guidance document on wind energy developments and EU nature legislation},
   note = {European Commission},
   type = {Guidance notice C(2020) 7730 final},
   url = {https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/natura2000/management/docs/wind_farms_en.pdf},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3017,
   author = {European Court of Auditors, .},
   title = {Combating eutrophication in the Baltic Sea: further and more effective action needed},
   institution = {Publications Office of the European Union},
   type = {Special Report No. 03},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2865/098206},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2600,
   author = {European Environment Agency, .},
   title = {Air quality in Europe - 2019 report},
   institution = {Publications Office of the European Union},
   type = {EEA Report No. 10/2019},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2800/822355},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@misc{RN2601,
   author = {European Environment Agency, .},
   title = {Global and European sea-level rise},
   number = {08-12-2020},
   url = {https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6/assessment},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@misc{RN2946,
   author = {European Environment Agency, .},
   title = {Heavy precipitation in Europe. Indicator Assessment CLIM 004. IND-92-en},
   number = {24-03-2021},
   url = {https://www.eea.europa.eu/ds_resolveuid/998fbe113cc84e9a978becd87079f874},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@misc{RN3313,
   author = {European Environment Agency, .},
   title = {Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea},
   number = {27.11.2020},
   url = {https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/maximum-extent-of-ice-cover-3#tab-chart_1},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@techreport{RN3069,
   author = {European Wind Energy, Association},
   title = {Wind in power},
   institution = {European Wind Energy Association},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2087,
   author = {Eyring, V. and Bony, S. and Meehl, G. A. and Senior, C. A. and Stevens, B. and Stouffer, R. J. and Taylor, K. E.},
   title = {Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {9},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1937-1958},
   note = {GMD},
   ISSN = {1991-9603},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016},
   url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/9/1937/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2602,
   author = {Fagerli, Hilde and Tsyro, Svetlana and Jonson, Jan Eiof and Nyíri, Ágnes and Gauss, Michael and Simpson, David and Wind, Peter and Benedictow, Anna and Valdebenito, Alvaro and Klein, Heiko and Schulz, Michael and Mortier, Augustin and Aas, Wenche and Hjellbrekke, Anne-Gunn and Solberg, Sverre and Platt, Stephen Matthew and Yttri, Karl Espen and Rud, Richard Olav and Tørseth, Kjetil and Mareckova, Katarina and Matthews, Bradley and Tista, Melanie and Wankmüller, Robert and Posch, Maximilian and Bergström, Robert and Lazzeri, Paolo and Pandolfi, Marco and Luoma, Krista and Aurela, Minna and Lenartz, Fabian and Bergmans, Benjamin and Pittavino, Sara and Tombolato, Ivan},
   title = {Transboundary particulate matter, photo-oxidants, acidifying and eutrophying components},
   institution = {Norwegian Meteorological Institute},
   type = {EMEP Status Report 1/2018},
   url = {http://emep.int/publ/reports/2018/EMEP_Status_Report_1_2018.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3257,
   author = {Fanslow, David L. and Nalepa, Thomas F. and Lang, Gregory A.},
   title = {Filtration Rates of the Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) on Natural Seston from Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron},
   journal = {Journal of Great Lakes Research},
   volume = {21},
   number = {4},
   pages = {489-500},
   abstract = {Filtration rates of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) on natural seston from two different regions in Saginaw Bay were determined on a monthly basis from April to October in 1992 and 1993. The two regions represent contrasting trophic conditions, with the inner bay more eutrophic than the outer bay. Mean filtration rate was 16.2 mUmg/h (range 4.0 to 40.7 mL/mg/h) over the entire 2-year period. Filtration rates on seston from the inner bay were significantly lower than rates on seston from the outer bay in 1992, but no differences were apparent in 1993. Lower rates were attributed to higher concentrations of seston {chlorophyll, paniculate organic carbon, and total suspended solids) found in the inner bay in 1992. In 1992, overall filtration rates were related to seston concentrations as described by a negative exponential function. In 1993, seston concentrations were uniformly low, and a relationship between filtration rates and concentrations was not observed. Further, filtration rates were not related to seston composition, as determined by the ratio of POC’TSS and chl:TSS. Maximum filtration rates were apparently related to temperature, with highest maximum rates occurring at 10–20°C. Based on measured filtration rates and overall standing stocks, the Dreissena population in the inner bay was capable of filtering the volume of the inner bay 1.3 times per day in 1992 and 0.2 times per day in 1993.},
   keywords = {Filtration rates
Suspended solids
Chlorophyll
Zebra mussels
Lake Huron},
   ISSN = {0380-1330},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0380-1330(95)71061-9},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0380133095710619},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2650,
   author = {Farinotti, Daniel and Huss, Matthias and Fürst, Johannes J. and Landmann, Johannes and Machguth, Horst and Maussion, Fabien and Pandit, Ankur},
   title = {A consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all glaciers on Earth},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {12},
   number = {3},
   pages = {168-173},
   abstract = {Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of the world’s glaciers is a fundamental prerequisite for a range of studies. Projections of future glacier change, estimates of the available freshwater resources or assessments of potential sea-level rise all need glacier ice thickness to be accurately constrained. Previous estimates of global glacier volumes are mostly based on scaling relations between glacier area and volume, and only one study provides global-scale information on the ice thickness distribution of individual glaciers. Here we use an ensemble of up to five models to provide a consensus estimate for the ice thickness distribution of all the about 215,000 glaciers outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The models use principles of ice flow dynamics to invert for ice thickness from surface characteristics. We find a total volume of 158 ± 41 × 103 km3, which is equivalent to 0.32 ± 0.08 m of sea-level change when the fraction of ice located below present-day sea level (roughly 15%) is subtracted. Our results indicate that High Mountain Asia hosts about 27% less glacier ice than previously suggested, and imply that the timing by which the region is expected to lose half of its present-day glacier area has to be moved forward by about one decade.},
   ISSN = {1752-0908},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0300-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1675,
   author = {Feistel, Rainer and Nausch, Günther and Matthaus, W and Hagen, Eberhard},
   title = {Temporal and spatial evolution of the Baltic deep water renewal in spring 2003},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {45},
   number = {4},
   pages = {623-642},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2399,
   author = {Feistel, Rainer and Nausch, Günther and Wasmund, Norbert},
   title = {State and evolution of the Baltic Sea, 1952-2005: a detailed 50-year survey of meteorology and climate, physics, chemistry, biology, and marine environment},
   publisher = {John Wiley & Sons},
   address = {Hoboken, NJ},
   ISBN = {0470283122},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470283134},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN3391,
   author = {Feistel, Susanne and Feistel, Rainer and Nehring, Dietwart and Matthäus, Wolfgang and Nausch, Günther and Naumann, Michael},
   title = {Hypoxic and anoxic regions in the Baltic Sea, 1969 - 2015},
   journal = {Meereswissenschaftliche Berichte Warnemünde},
   volume = {100},
   pages = {85pp},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.12754/msr-2016-0100},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2755,
   author = {Feldstein, Steven B.},
   title = {The Recent Trend and Variance Increase of the Annular Mode},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {15},
   number = {1},
   pages = {88-94},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0088:Trtavi>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/15/1/1520-0442_2002_015_0088_trtavi_2.0.co_2.xml},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1973,
   author = {Fennel, Katja and Testa, Jeremy M.},
   title = {Biogeochemical Controls on Coastal Hypoxia},
   journal = {Annual Review of Marine Science},
   volume = {11},
   number = {1},
   pages = {105-130},
   abstract = {Aquatic environments experiencing low-oxygen conditions have been described as hypoxic, suboxic, or anoxic zones; oxygen minimum zones; and, in the popular media, the misnomer “dead zones.” This review aims to elucidate important aspects underlying oxygen depletion in diverse coastal systems and provides a synthesis of general relationships between hypoxia and its controlling factors. After presenting a generic overview of the first-order processes, we review system-specific characteristics for selected estuaries where adjacent human settlements contribute to high nutrient loads, river-dominated shelves that receive large inputs of fresh water and anthropogenic nutrients, and upwelling regions where a supply of nutrient-rich, low-oxygen waters generates oxygen minimum zones without direct anthropogenic influence. We propose a nondimensional number that relates the hypoxia timescale and water residence time to guide the cross-system comparison. Our analysis reveals the basic principles underlying hypoxia generation in coastal systems and provides a framework for discussing future changes.},
   keywords = {hypoxia,residence time,estuary,river-dominated shelf,upwelling shelf,anthropogenic nutrient load},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095138},
   url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095138},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2372,
   author = {Ferguson, Steven H. and Stirling, Ian and McLoughlin, Philip},
   title = {CLIMATE CHANGE AND RINGED SEAL (PHOCA HISPIDA) RECRUITMENT IN WESTERN HUDSON BAY},
   journal = {Marine Mammal Science},
   volume = {21},
   number = {1},
   pages = {121-135},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate warming is predicted to reduce the extent of ice cover in the Arctic and, within the Hudson Bay region, the annual ice may be significantly decreased or entirely lost in the foreseeable future. The ringed seal (Phoca hispida), a key species that depends on sea ice, will likely be among the first marine mammals to show the negative effects of climatic warming. We used 639 ringed seals killed by Inuit hunters from western Hudson Bay (1991–1992, 1999–2001) to assess trends in recruitment relative to snow depth, snowfall, rainfall, temperature in April and May, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the previous winter, and timing of spring break-up. Snowfall and ringed seal recruitment varied from lower than average in the 1970s, to higher in 1980s and lower in 1990s. Prior to 1990, seal recruitment appeared to be related to timing of spring ice break-up which was correlated with the NAO. However, recent 1990–2001 environmental data indicate less snowfall, lower snow depth, and warmer temperatures in April and May when pups are born and nursed. Decreased snow depth, particularly below 32 cm, corresponded with a significant decrease in ringed seal recruitment as indicated by pups born and surviving to adults that were later harvested. Earlier spring break-up of sea ice together with snow trends suggest continued low pup survival in western Hudson Bay.},
   ISSN = {0824-0469},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2005.tb01212.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1748-7692.2005.tb01212.x},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2719,
   author = {Feser, Frauke and Barcikowska, M. and Krueger, O. and Schenk, F. and Weisse, R. and Xia, L.},
   title = {Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe—A review},
   journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
   volume = {141},
   number = {687},
   pages = {350-382},
   abstract = {Abstract This review assesses storm studies over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe regarding the occurrence of potential long-term trends. Based on a systematic review of available articles, trends are classified according to different geographical regions, datasets, and time periods. Articles that used measurement and proxy data, reanalyses, regional and global climate model data on past and future trends are evaluated for changes in storm climate. The most important result is that trends in storm activity depend critically on the time period analysed. An increase in storm numbers is evident for the reanalyses period for the most recent decades, whereas most long-term studies show merely decadal variability for the last 100–150 years. Storm trends derived from reanalyses data and climate model data for the past are mostly limited to the last four to six decades. The majority of these studies find increasing storm activity north of about 55–60° N over the North Atlantic with a negative tendency southward. This increase from about the 1970s until the mid-1990s is also mirrored by long-term proxies and the North Atlantic Oscillation and constitutes a part of their decadal variability. Studies based on proxy and measurement data or model studies over the North Atlantic for the past which cover more than 100 years show large decadal variations and either no trend or a decrease in storm numbers. Future scenarios until about the year 2100 indicate mostly an increase in winter storm intensity over the North Atlantic and western Europe. However, future trends in total storm numbers are quite heterogeneous and depend on the model generation used.},
   ISSN = {0035-9009},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2364},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2364},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3058,
   author = {Feser, Frauke and Barcikowska, Monika and Haeseler, Susanne and Lefebvre, Christiana and Schubert-Frisius, Martina and Stendel, Martin and von Storch, Hans and Zahn, Matthias},
   title = {11. Hurricane Gonzalo and its extratropical transition t a strong European storm},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {96},
   number = {12},
   pages = {S51-S55},
   ISSN = {00030007, 15200477},
   url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/26233140},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2089,
   author = {Feser, Frauke and Rockel, Burkhardt and von Storch, Hans and Winterfeldt, Jörg and Zahn, Matthias},
   title = {Regional Climate Models Add Value to Global Model Data: A Review and Selected Examples},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {92},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1181-1192},
   abstract = {An important challenge in current climate modeling is to realistically describe small-scale weather statistics, such as topographic precipitation and coastal wind patterns, or regional phenomena like polar lows. Global climate models simulate atmospheric processes with increasingly higher resolutions, but still regional climate models have a lot of advantages. They consume less computation time because of their limited simulation area and thereby allow for higher resolution both in time and space as well as for longer integration times. Regional climate models can be used for dynamical down-scaling purposes because their output data can be processed to produce higher resolved atmospheric fields, allowing the representation of small-scale processes and a more detailed description of physiographic details (such as mountain ranges, coastal zones, and details of soil properties).However, does higher resolution add value when compared to global model results? Most studies implicitly assume that dynamical downscaling leads to output fields that are superior to the driving global data, but little work has been carried out to substantiate these expectations. Here a series of articles is reviewed that evaluate the benefit of dynamical downscaling by explicitly comparing results of global and regional climate model data to the observations. These studies show that the regional climate model generally performs better for the medium spatial scales, but not always for the larger spatial scales.Regional models can add value, but only for certain variables and locations—particularly those influenced by regional specifics, such as coasts, or mesoscale dynamics, such as polar lows. Therefore, the decision of whether a regional climate model simulation is required depends crucially on the scientific question being addressed.},
   ISSN = {0003-0007},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3061.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3061.1},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2915,
   author = {Feser, Frauke and Schubert-Frisius, Martina and von Storch, Hans and Zahn, Matthias and Barcikowska, Monika and Haeseler, Susanne and Lefebvre, Christiana and Stendel, Martin},
   title = {Hurricane Gonzalo and its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {96},
   number = {12},
   pages = {51-55},
   ISSN = {0003-0007},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00122.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/12/bams-d-15-00122.1.xml},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2373,
   author = {Fietz, Katharina and Galatius, Anders and Teilmann, Jonas and Dietz, Rune and Frie, Anne Kristine and Klimova, Anastasia and Palsbøll, Per J. and Jensen, Lasse F. and Graves, Jeff A. and Hoffman, Joseph I. and Olsen, Morten Tange},
   title = {Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate, culling and conservation},
   journal = {Molecular Ecology},
   volume = {25},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4097-4112},
   abstract = {Abstract Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp, probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre-extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe.},
   ISSN = {0962-1083},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13748},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/mec.13748},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3412,
   author = {Figueroa, Daniela and Capo, Eric and Lindh, Markus V. and Rowe, Owen F. and Paczkowska, Joanna and Pinhassi, Jarone and Andersson, Agneta},
   title = {Terrestrial dissolved organic matter inflow drives temporal dynamics of the bacterial community of a subarctic estuary (northern Baltic Sea)},
   journal = {Environmental Microbiology},
   volume = {23},
   number = {8},
   pages = {4200-4213},
   abstract = {Summary Climate change is projected to cause increased inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to coastal areas in northerly regions. Estuarine bacterial community will thereby receive larger loads of organic matter and inorganic nutrients available for microbial metabolism. The composition of the bacterial community and its ecological functions may thus be affected. We studied the responses of bacterial community to inflow of terrestrial dissolved organic matter in a subarctic estuary in the northern Baltic Sea, using a 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding approach. Betaproteobacteria dominated during the spring river flush, constituting ~ 60% of the bacterial community. Bacterial diversity increased as the runoff decreased during summer, when Verrucomicrobia, Betaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Gammaproteobacteria and Planctomycetes dominated the community. Network analysis revealed that a larger number of associations between bacterial populations occurred during the summer than in spring. Betaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes populations appeared to display similar correlations to environmental factors. In spring, freshly discharged organic matter favoured specialists, while in summer a mix of autochthonous and terrestrial organic matter promoted the development of generalists. Our study indicates that increased inflows of terrestrial organic matter-loaded freshwater to coastal areas would promote specialist bacteria, which in turn might enhance the transformation of terrestrial organic matter in estuarine environments.},
   ISSN = {1462-2912},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.15597},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1462-2920.15597},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2805,
   author = {Filatov, Nikolay and Baklagin, Vyacheslav and Efremova, Tatyana and Nazarova, Larisa and Palshin, Nikolay},
   title = {Climate change impacts on the watersheds of Lakes Onego and Ladoga from remote sensing and in situ data},
   journal = {Inland Waters},
   volume = {9},
   number = {2},
   pages = {130-141},
   ISSN = {2044-2041},
   DOI = {10.1080/20442041.2018.1533355},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2018.1533355},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2787,
   author = {Filazzola, Alessandro and Blagrave, Kevin and Imrit, Mohammad Arshad and Sharma, Sapna},
   title = {Climate Change Drives Increases in Extreme Events for Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {47},
   number = {18},
   pages = {e2020GL089608},
   abstract = {Abstract Extreme climate events can have significant consequences on ecosystems and by extension human populations. Over 50 million of the world's lakes typically freeze each winter, and the absence of winter ice cover, in lakes where ice has historically been present, can be characterized as an extreme event. We quantified the effects of extreme climate events on lake ice cover using 78-year ice records from 122 lakes to show that (1) extreme ice-free years are becoming more frequent and severe, (2) winter air temperature is a significant predictor of ice cover that was driven by large-scale climate oscillations, (3) extremes in temperature are closely related to extremes in ice cover, and (4) ice-free years are forecasted to result in significant loss of ice-cover in the future. Without drastic reductions in carbon emissions, we can expect the widespread loss of lake ice cover could have significant socioeconomic and biological implications.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089608},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL089608},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3333,
   author = {Filies, Christian and Schumacher, Susanne},
   title = {Climate Change Impacts on Baltic Coastal Tourism and the Complexity of Sectoral Adaptation},
   booktitle = {Climate Change Adaptation in Practice},
   pages = {225-238},
   abstract = {Summary Tourism as an economic sector which, with a high dependency on natural resources, will face direct, indirect and induced climate changes to its key and framework conditions. While some attempts have been made to develop adaptation strategies for the touristic market, it has become obvious that adaptation strategies will be most efficient when established on a micro-regional level. By examining coastal tourism in the southern Baltic Sea Region, this chapter discusses the attempt to establish adaptation strategies not only by spatial, but also by sectoral criteria. Southern Baltic Sea Region's coastal tourism is a heterogeneous field with different natural, cultural and recent historical background. Still, the sector will face climatic challenges all around the Baltic Sea. While warmer temperatures and shifts in precipitation from summer to winter favour coastal tourism at first glance, many effects of climate change need to be examined individually to characterize their impacts on the main touristic resources of Baltic Sea tourism: nature and cultural heritage. Understanding these effects, it is possible to build up effective adaptation networks of different touristic stakeholders. Successful adaptation will be the main parameter to decide if the changes will be risks or chances for Baltic Sea tourism. To demonstrate the actual perception of climate impacts and a possible need for adaptation, German-based expert interviews with touristic decision makers have been conducted. The results were analysed and put into the theoretical context of adaptation as a contribution to the development of effective adaption strategies, a process being initiated by corresponding national or international projects such as RADOST, BaltCICA or baltadapt.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118548165.ch17},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9781118548165.ch17},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN1729,
   author = {Finni, Terttu and Kononen, Kaisa and Olsonen, Riitta and Wallström, Kerstin},
   title = {The history of cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {30},
   number = {4},
   pages = {172-178},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-30.4.172},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2021,
   author = {Fischer, Hartmut and Matthäus, Wolfgang},
   title = {The importance of the Drogden Sill in the Sound for major Baltic inflows},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {9},
   number = {3},
   pages = {137-157},
   abstract = {Saline water from the North Sea, which is able to enter the deep water of the central parts of the Baltic Sea, must unavoidably pass two shallow sill areas: the Darss Sill in the Belt Sea area and the Drogden Sill in the Sound. Both sills restrict considerably the inflow of highly saline and oxygen-rich water known as major Baltic inflows. Long-term observations of salinity and current made at light vessels Gedser Rev and Drogden in the sill areas are used to evaluate the role of the Drogden Sill in major inflow of events. The different contributions of the two passages are documented on the basis of 90 events that took place between 1897 and 1976. Based on the volume and salt transports across the two sills the intensity of major inflows is re-assessed. The significance of each sill varies considerably from event to event. The volume crossing the Drogden Sill during major events is, on average, one third of that crossing the Darss Sill and usually far more salt enters the Baltic across the latter. However, in some cases, the amounts of salt transported across the sills are equal (e.g. January 1993) or the amount crossing the Drogden Sill is even the larger fraction (e.g. January 1925, January 1908). The re-assessed intensity of the 1993 event showed that the inflow in January 1993 must be characterized as very strong owing to the considerable salt transport across the Drogden Sill.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Sound
entrance sills
major inflow
salinity
sali transport},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(96)00046-2},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796396000462},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2960,
   author = {Fischer-Bruns, Irene and Storch, H. von and González-Rouco, J. F. and Zorita, E.},
   title = {Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {25},
   number = {5},
   pages = {461-476},
   abstract = {The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0036-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0036-1},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3038,
   author = {Fleming, Zoë L. and Doherty, Ruth M. and von Schneidemesser, Erika and Malley, Christopher S. and Cooper, Owen R. and Pinto, Joseph P. and Colette, Augustin and Xu, Xiaobin and Simpson, David and Schultz, Martin G. and Lefohn, Allen S. and Hamad, Samera and Moolla, Raeesa and Solberg, Sverre and Feng, Zhaozhong},
   title = {Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health},
   journal = {Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene},
   volume = {6},
   number = {12},
   abstract = {This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014) and trends (2000–2014) for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8); number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70), SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb) and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8). These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data.Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual). Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.},
   ISSN = {2325-1026},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.273},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.273},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2009,
   author = {Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Laamanen, Maria},
   title = {Long-term changes in Secchi depth and the role of phytoplankton in explaining light attenuation in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {102-103},
   pages = {1-10},
   abstract = {Secchi depth, as a proxy of water transparency, provides valuable information on the availability of light to the underwater ecosystems. Changes in water transparency have also been widely linked to eutrophication and phytoplankton biomass. This study aimed to describe the development of water transparency in the Baltic Sea through a unique century-long set of Secchi depth observations. Furthermore, the aim was to explain the role of phytoplankton in determining water transparency in these optically complex waters. Water transparency in the open Baltic Sea has decreased during the last one hundred years. The development differs between the sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. The decrease has been most profound in the north-eastern Baltic sub-basins, but apparent also in parts of the Southern and Central Baltic. In many of the northern areas the decrease has accelerated during the last decades, whereas in the Southern Baltic a recent increase was observed. The analysis of simultaneous chlorophyll a observations during the period from 1972 to 2006 revealed that during summer time, 13–17% of the light attenuation can be attributed to phytoplankton. In spring, the average proportion is between 31 and 42%, with great variation between observations. We find Secchi depth a suitable indicator of eutrophication, integrating various organic matter related features. It should always be applied with sufficient background information of the optical properties of the water mass, and complemented by other indicators.},
   keywords = {Secchi depth
Baltic Sea
chlorophyll
eutrophication},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.02.015},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771412000418},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2374,
   author = {Fliessbach, Katharina Leonia and Borkenhagen, Kai and Guse, Nils and Markones, Nele and Schwemmer, Philipp and Garthe, Stefan},
   title = {A Ship Traffic Disturbance Vulnerability Index for Northwest European Seabirds as a Tool for Marine Spatial Planning},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {6},
   number = {192},
   abstract = {Ship traffic in Northwestern European seas is intense and continuing to increase, posing a threat to vulnerable seabird species as a result of disturbance. However, information on species-specific effects of ship traffic on seabirds at sea is limited, and tools are needed to prioritize species and areas to support the integration of conservation needs in Marine Spatial Planning. In this study, we investigated the responses of 26 characteristic seabird species in the German North and Baltic Seas to experimental ship disturbance using large datasets collected as part of the Seabirds at Sea counts. We developed a Disturbance Vulnerability Index (DVI) for ship traffic combining indicators for species’ shyness, escape costs, and compensatory potential, and analyzed the relationships among shyness, escape costs, and vulnerability. The DVI was calculated using the following eight indicators: escape distance, proportion of escaping birds, proportion of birds swimming prior to disturbance, wing loading, habitat use flexibility, biogeographic population size, adult survival rate, European threat and conservation status. Species-specific disturbance responses differed considerably, with common scoters (Melanitta nigra) and red-throated loons (Gavia stellata) showing the longest escape distances and highest proportions of escaping individuals. Red-throated loon, black guillemot (Cepphus grylle), Arctic loon (Gavia arctica), velvet scoter (Melanitta fusca), and red-breasted merganser (Mergus serrator) had the highest DVI values, and gulls and terns had the lowest. Contrary to theoretical considerations, shyness correlated positively with escape costs, with the shyest species also being the most vulnerable among the species studied. The strong reactions of several species to disturbance by ships suggest the need for areas with little or no disturbance in some marine protected areas, to act as a refuge for vulnerable species. This DVI can be used in combination with distribution data to identify the areas most vulnerable to disturbance.},
   keywords = {Behavior,Escape distance,Risk-disturbance hypothesis,Marine Spatial Planning (MSP),Vulnerability index,seabirds,ship traffic,disturbance},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00192},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00192},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3178,
   author = {Flinkman, Juha and Aro, Eero and Vuorinen, Ilppo and Viitasalo, Markku},
   title = {Changes in northern Baltic zooplankton and herring nutrition from 1980s to 1990s: top-down and bottom-up processes at work},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {165},
   pages = {127-136},
   note = {10.3354/meps165127},
   abstract = {During the stagnation period of the Baltic Sea the mean weight-at-age of Baltic herring decreased by 50% (between 1977 and 1992). This has usually been attributed to a top-down process, i.e. to the simultaneous collapse of cod stocks and their predation. We present long-term data for 1980 to 1993 showing that bottom-up effects may also have played a role: along with the decline of salinity, the biomass proportion of zooplankton taxa preferred by herring (larger than 20 µg ind.<sup>-1</sup> in wet weight) significantly declined. To support our hypothesis we present a study in which Baltic herring feeding and selective predation were investigated during 1985, a time of good growth and high weight-at-age, and 1991, when herring growth and weight-at-age were poor. In this study, herring stomachs and simultaneously taken plankton samples were analysed from trawl surveys conducted in the northern Baltic proper during the peak of the herring feeding season in late summer. During both 1985 and 1991, herring selectively preyed on the larger zooplankton categories, especially neritic copepods. However, in 1991, a smaller proportion of the prey in herring stomachs consisted of neritic copepods, apparently because their share in plankton had decreased. Consequently, and despite an increase in total zooplankton biomass, the estimated carbon content of the food eaten by herring was lower, and the average stomach fullness index (on a scale of 0 to 5) decreased from 3.9 in 1985 to 1.9 in 1991. Also, the amount of mesenteric fat on herring stomachs declined from 4.2 to 3.2 (scale 0 to 5), indicating a longer-term failure in feeding success. We suggest that, in addition to possible top-down effects (a release of cod predation), bottom-up processes mediated via changes in mesozooplankton species composition have also influenced herring growth and that both of these processes are affected by the same environmental factor--the Baltic salinity level.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v165/p127-136/},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1673,
   author = {Fonselius, Stig and Valderrama, Jorge},
   title = {One hundred years of hydrographic measurements in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Sea Research},
   volume = {49},
   number = {4},
   pages = {229-241},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S1385-1101(03)00035-2},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2891,
   author = {Fontrodona Bach, A. and van der Schrier, G. and Melsen, L. A. and Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Teuling, A. J.},
   title = {Widespread and Accelerated Decrease of Observed Mean and Extreme Snow Depth Over Europe},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {45},
   number = {22},
   pages = {12,312-12,319},
   abstract = {Abstract Accumulated snow amounts are a key climate change indicator. It combines the competing effects of climate change-driven changes in precipitation and stronger snowmelt related to increasing temperatures. Here we provide observational evidence from a pan-European in situ data set that mean snow depth generally decreases stronger than extreme snow depth. Widespread decreases in maximum and mean snow depth were found over Europe, except in the coldest climates, with an average decrease of −12.2%/decade for mean snow depth and −11.4%/decade for maximum snow depth since 1951. These trends accelerated after the 1980s. This has strong implications for the availability of freshwater in spring, while extremes in snow depth, usually very disruptive to society, are decreasing at a slower pace.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079799},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079799},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2092,
   author = {Forster, Piers M. and Maycock, Amanda C. and McKenna, Christine M. and Smith, Christopher J.},
   title = {Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {10},
   number = {1},
   pages = {7-10},
   abstract = {Many recently updated climate models show greater future warming than previously. Separate lines of evidence suggest that their warming rates may be unrealistically high, but the risk of such eventualities only emphasizes the need for rapid and deep reductions in emissions.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0660-0},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2093,
   author = {Fox, Anthony D and Petersen, Ib Krag },
   title = {Offshore wind farms and their effects on birds},
   journal = {Dansk Ornitologisk Forenings Tidsskrift},
   volume = {113},
   number = {3},
   pages = {86-101},
   ISSN = {2246-2309},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2094,
   author = {Fox, Anthony D. and Jónsson, Jón Einar and Aarvak, Tomas and Bregnballe, Thomas and Christensen, Thomas Kjær and Clausen, Kevin Kuhlmann and Clausen, Preben and Dalby, Lars and Holm, Thomas Eske and Pavón-Jordan, Diego and Laursen, Karsten and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon and Møller, Anders Pape and Nordström, Mikael and Öst, Markus and Söderquist, Pär and Roland Therkildsen, Ole},
   title = {Current and Potential Threats to Nordic Duck Populations — A Horizon Scanning Exercise},
   journal = {Annales Zoologici Fennici},
   volume = {52},
   number = {4},
   pages = {193-220, 28},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.5735/086.052.0404},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2375,
   author = {Fox, Anthony D. and Nielsen, RaSmus Due and Petersen, Ib Krag},
   title = {Climate-change not only threatens bird populations but also challenges our ability to monitor them},
   journal = {Ibis},
   volume = {161},
   number = {2},
   pages = {467-474},
   ISSN = {0019-1019},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.12675},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ibi.12675},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2806,
   author = {Frajka-Williams, Eleanor and Beaulieu, Claudie and Duchez, Aurelie},
   title = {Emerging negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in spite of warm subtropics},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {7},
   number = {1},
   pages = {11224},
   abstract = {Sea surface temperatures in the northern North Atlantic have shown a marked decrease over the past several years. The sea surface in the subpolar gyre is now as cold as it was during the last cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index in the 1990s. This climate index is associated with shifts in hurricane activity, rainfall patterns and intensity, and changes in fish populations. However, unlike the last cold period in the Atlantic, the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic is not uniformly cool, but instead has anomalously cold temperatures in the subpolar gyre, warm temperatures in the subtropics and cool anomalies over the tropics. The tripole pattern of anomalies has increased the subpolar to subtropical meridional gradient in SSTs, which are not represented by the AMO index value, but which may lead to increased atmospheric baroclinicity and storminess. Here we show that the recent Atlantic cooling is likely to persist, as predicted by a statistical forecast of subsurface ocean temperatures and consistent with the irreversible nature of watermass changes involved in the recent cooling of the subpolar gyre.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11046-x},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2767,
   author = {Francis, Jennifer A. and Vavrus, Stephen J.},
   title = {Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {6},
   abstract = {Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012GL051000},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2772,
   author = {Francis, Jennifer A. and Vavrus, Stephen J.},
   title = {Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {10},
   number = {1},
   pages = {014005},
   abstract = {New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2989,
   author = {Fransner, Filippa and Gustafsson, Erik and Tedesco, Letizia and Vichi, Marcello and Hordoir, Robinson and Roquet, Fabien and Spilling, Kristian and Kuznetsov, Ivan and Eilola, Kari and Mörth, Carl-Magnus and Humborg, Christoph and Nycander, Jonas},
   title = {Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {123},
   number = {1},
   pages = {166-188},
   abstract = {Abstract High inputs of nutrients and organic matter make coastal seas places of intense air-sea CO2 exchange. Due to their complexity, the role of coastal seas in the global air-sea CO2 exchange is, however, still uncertain. Here, we investigate the role of phytoplankton stoichiometric flexibility and extracellular DOC production for the seasonal nutrient and CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) dynamics in the Gulf of Bothnia, Northern Baltic Sea. A 3-D ocean biogeochemical-physical model with variable phytoplankton stoichiometry is for the first time implemented in the area and validated against observations. By simulating non-Redfieldian internal phytoplankton stoichiometry, and a relatively large production of extracellular dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the model adequately reproduces observed seasonal cycles in macronutrients and pCO2. The uptake of atmospheric CO2 is underestimated by 50% if instead using the Redfield ratio to determine the carbon assimilation, as in other Baltic Sea models currently in use. The model further suggests, based on the observed drawdown of pCO2, that observational estimates of organic carbon production in the Gulf of Bothnia, derived with the method, may be heavily underestimated. We conclude that stoichiometric variability and uncoupling of carbon and nutrient assimilation have to be considered in order to better understand the carbon cycle in coastal seas.},
   ISSN = {2169-9275},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013019},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017JC013019},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3132,
   author = {Frazão Santos, Catarina and Agardy, Tundi and Andrade, Francisco and Calado, Helena and Crowder, Larry B. and Ehler, Charles N. and García-Morales, Sara and Gissi, Elena and Halpern, Benjamin S. and Orbach, Michael K. and Pörtner, Hans-Otto and Rosa, Rui},
   title = {Integrating climate change in ocean planning},
   journal = {Nature Sustainability},
   volume = {3},
   number = {7},
   pages = {505-516},
   abstract = {The acceleration of global warming and increased vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems affect the benefits provided by the ocean. Spatial planning of marine areas is vital to balance multiple human demands and ensure a healthy ocean, while supporting global ocean goals. To thrive in a changing ocean though, marine spatial planning (MSP) must effectively integrate climate change. By reviewing existing literature on MSP and climate change, we explore the links between them and with ocean sustainability, highlight management challenges, and identify potential pathways to guide action towards the effective integration of climate impacts in MSP.},
   ISSN = {2398-9629},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0513-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0513-x},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2095,
   author = {Frederikse, Thomas and Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Riva, Riccardo E. M. and Dangendorf, Sönke},
   title = {A Consistent Sea-Level Reconstruction and Its Budget on Basin and Global Scales over 1958–2014},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {31},
   number = {3},
   pages = {1267-1280},
   abstract = {Different sea level reconstructions show a spread in sea level rise over the last six decades and it is not yet certain whether the sum of contributors explains the reconstructed rise. Possible causes for this spread are, among others, vertical land motion at tide-gauge locations and the sparse sampling of the spatially variable ocean. To assess these open questions, reconstructed sea level and the role of the contributors are investigated on a local, basin, and global scale. High-latitude seas are excluded. Tide-gauge records are combined with observations of vertical land motion, independent estimates of ice-mass loss, terrestrial water storage, and barotropic atmospheric forcing in a self-consistent framework to reconstruct sea level changes on basin and global scales, which are compared to the estimated sum of contributing processes. For the first time, it is shown that for most basins the reconstructed sea level trend and acceleration can be explained by the sum of contributors, as well as a large part of the decadal variability. The sparsely sampled South Atlantic Ocean forms an exception. The global-mean sea level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 over 1958–2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr−1 for the sum of contributors. Over the same period, the reconstruction shows a positive acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.02 mm yr−2, which is also in agreement with the sum of contributors, which shows an acceleration of 0.07 ± 0.01 mm yr−2. Since 1993, both reconstructed sea level and the sum of contributors show good agreement with altimetry estimates.},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0502.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0502.1},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2441,
   author = {Fredriksson, Caroline and Feldmann Eellend, Beate and Larson, Magnus and Martinez, Grit},
   title = {Historiska stormhändelser som underlag vid riskanalys: Studie av översvämningarna 1872 och 1904 längs Skånes syd-och ostkust},
   journal = {Vatten, J. Water Manage. Res.},
   volume = {73},
   number = {3},
   pages = {93-110},
   ISSN = {0042-2886},
   url = {https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1ae6d775-a53e-4a38-b8d0-b9750278045d},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2400,
   author = {Fredriksson, Caroline and Tajvidi, Nader and Hanson, Hans and Larson, Magnus},
   title = {Statistical analysis of extreme sea water levels at the falsterbo peninsula, south Sweden},
   journal = {Vatten, J. Water Manage. Res.},
   volume = {72},
   pages = {129-142},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3209,
   author = {Friedland, Kevin D. and Dannewitz, Johan and Romakkaniemi, Atso and Palm, Stefan and Pulkkinen, Henni and Pakarinen, Tapani and Oeberst, Rainer},
   title = {Post-smolt survival of Baltic salmon in context to changing environmental conditions and predators},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {74},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1344-1355},
   abstract = {The survival of Baltic salmon Salmo salar during the first year at sea (post-smolt stage) has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. In this analysis, we complement previous studies on possible causes of this decline by considering a suite of environmental parameters, potential change in predation pressure, and post-smolt growth. Marine survival estimates were found to be negatively correlated with temperature, indicating that warming conditions have not favoured survival. Survival was also found to be positively correlated with dissolved oxygen levels and regionally related to shifts in salinity. These relationships were further studied in context to the potential predation on post-smolts by one of the main piscivores in the Baltic, Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias). Concomitant with changes in environmental conditions, Baltic cod has changed its latitudinal range, moving northward in the Baltic, possibly in response to warming conditions. These changes lead us to hypothesize that predation pressure on salmon may have increased in recent years as cod has now occupied habitats used by salmon post-smolts during their southward feeding migrations. This predation may have been intensified as a result of anoxic conditions in the central basin by concentrating predation interactions in coastal waters and/or the upper water column typically occupied by salmon post-smolts. Indicators of post-smolt growth were applied to test the alternate hypothesis that mortality is growth-mediated; these indicators lacked a time series trend, which supports the contention that shifting predation pressure rather than feeding opportunities is responsible for the decline in post-smolt survival in Baltic salmon.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw178},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw178},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3378,
   author = {Friedland, Rene and Macias, DM and Cossarini, Gianpiero and Daewel, Ute and Estournel, Claude and Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa and Grizzetti, Bruna and Grégoire, Marilaure and Gustafson, Bo and Kalaroni, Sofia and Kerimoglu, O and Lazzari, P and Lenhart, H and Lessin, G and Maljutenko, I and Miladinova, S and Müller-Karulis, B and Neumann, T and Pärn, O and Pätsch, J and Piroddi, C and Raudsepp, U and Schrum, C and Stegert, C and Stips, A and Tsiaras, K and Ulses, C and Vandenbulcke, L},
   title = {Effects of nutrient management scenarios on marine eutrophication indicators: a Pan-European, multi-model assessment in support of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {8},
   pages = {596126},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.596126},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1537,
   author = {Friedland, René and Neumann, Thomas and Schernewski, Gerald},
   title = {Climate change and the Baltic Sea action plan: model simulations on the future of the western Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {105-108},
   pages = {175-186},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.08.002},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3143,
   author = {Friedlingstein, Pierre and O'Sullivan, Michael and Jones, Matthew W. and Andrew, Robbie M. and Hauck, Judith and Olsen, Are and Peters, Glen P. and Peters, Wouter and Pongratz, Julia and Sitch, Stephen and Quéré, Corinne Le and Canadell, Josep G. and Ciais, Philippe and Jackson, Robert B. and Alin, Simone and Aragão, Luiz E. O. C. and Arneth, Almut and Arora, Vivek and Bates, Nicholas R. and Becker, Meike and Benoit-Cattin, Alice and Bittig, Henry C. and Bopp, Laurent and Bultan, Selma and Chandra, Naveen and Chevallier, Frédéric and Chini, Louise P. and Evans, Wiley and Florentie, Liesbeth and Forster, Piers M. and Gasser, Thomas and Gehlen, Marion and Gilfillan, Dennis and Gkritzalis, Thanos and Gregor, Luke and Gruber, Nicolas and Harris, Ian and Hartung, Kerstin and Haverd, Vanessa and Houghton, Richard A. and Ilyina, Tatiana and Jain, Atul K. and Joetzjer, Emilie and Kadono, Koji and Kato, Etsushi and Kitidis, Vassilis and Korsbakken, Jan Ivar and Landschützer, Peter and Lefèvre, Nathalie and Lenton, Andrew and Lienert, Sebastian and Liu, Zhu and Lombardozzi, Danica and Marland, Gregg and Metzl, Nicolas and Munro, David R. and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Nakaoka, Shin-Ichiro and Niwa, Yosuke and O'Brien, Kevin and Ono, Tsuneo and Palmer, Paul I. and Pierrot, Denis and Poulter, Benjamin and Resplandy, Laure and Robertson, Eddy and Rödenbeck, Christian and Schwinger, Jörg and Séférian, Roland and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Smith, Adam J. P. and Sutton, Adrienne J. and Tanhua, Toste and Tans, Pieter P. and Tian, Hanqin and Tilbrook, Bronte and Werf, Guido van der and Vuichard, Nicolas and Walker, Anthony P. and Wanninkhof, Rik and Watson, Andrew J. and Willis, David and Wiltshire, Andrew J. and Yuan, Wenping and Yue, Xu and Zaehle, Sönke},
   title = {Global carbon budget 2020},
   journal = {Earth System Science Data},
   volume = {12},
   number = {4},
   pages = {3269-3340},
   ISSN = {1866-3508},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2522,
   author = {Frommel, Andrea Y. and Schubert, Alexander and Piatkowski, Uwe and Clemmesen, Catriona},
   title = {Egg and early larval stages of Baltic cod, Gadus morhua, are robust to high levels of ocean acidification},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {160},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1825-1834},
   abstract = {The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lower the pH in ocean waters, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). Despite its potentially detrimental effects on calcifying organisms, experimental studies on the possible impacts on fish remain scarce. While adults will most likely remain relatively unaffected by changes in seawater pH, early life-history stages are potentially more sensitive, due to the lack of gills with specialized ion-regulatory mechanisms. We tested the effects of OA on growth and development of embryos and larvae of eastern Baltic cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea. Cod were reared from newly fertilized eggs to early non-feeding larvae in 5 different experiments looking at a range of response variables to OA, as well as the combined effect of CO2 and temperature. No effect on hatching, survival, development, and otolith size was found at any stage in the development of Baltic cod. Field data show that in the Bornholm Basin, the main spawning site of eastern Baltic cod, in situ levels of pCO2 are already at levels of 1,100 μatm with a pH of 7.2, mainly due to high eutrophication supporting microbial activity and permanent stratification with little water exchange. Our data show that the eggs and early larval stages of Baltic cod seem to be robust to even high levels of OA (3,200 μatm), indicating an adaptational response to CO2.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-011-1876-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-011-1876-3},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2921,
   author = {Fronzek, Stefan and Carter, Timothy R.},
   title = {Assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on resource potential for Europe based on projections from RCMs and GCMs},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {357-371},
   abstract = {An analysis is presented of the estimated impacts of climate change on resource potential in Europe under a wide range of model-based climate scenarios. Simple models and indices were used to assess impacts on the growing season, potential biomass, thermal suitability for the cultivation of crops, and potential energy demand for indoor cooling. Impacts were estimated for climate during the 1961–1990 baseline period (both observed and modelled) and projected during 2071–2100 based on outputs from a range of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by general circulation models (GCMs) assuming forcing by SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2, and from six atmosphere–ocean GCMs forced by a wider range of emission scenarios. Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change are assessed with respect to: (1) the direct climate model output vs. delta change approach, (2) differences in the driving GCMs and the RCM runs, (3) differences across a range of emission scenarios, (4) changes in long-term mean climate, and (5) changes in inter-annual climate variability. Future simulations show substantial changes in all analysed impact sectors, but with a relatively large spread of results attributable to uncertainties in future climate expressed by the different scenarios. Results included shifts of the northern limits of areas thermally suitable for the cultivation of soya bean and grain maize by several hundred kilometres, lengthening of the thermal growing season by 3–12 weeks, strong increases of potential biomass in northern Europe and slight decreases in southern Europe, and increased energy demand for cooling throughout Europe. Our results hint at systematic differences between RCM and GCM projections of temperature, though not precipitation, over Europe. The results also highlight the importance of accounting for inter-annual variability in estimating future impacts, through its affect on levels of risk. However, the results caution against the use of direct RCM outputs in impact models, due to biases in the representation of present-day climate. The delta change approach still appears to be the preferred option for most applications.},
   ISSN = {1573-1480},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9214-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9214-3},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2699,
   author = {Fronzek, Stefan and Luoto, Miska and Carter, Timothy R.},
   title = {Potential effect of climate change on the distribution of palsa mires in subarctic Fennoscandia},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {32},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1-12},
   note = {10.3354/cr032001},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Palsa mires are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone. Palsa mires have high conservation status, being characterized by a rich diversity of bird species and unique geomorphological processes. They are currently degrading throughout their distributional range, probably because of regional climatic warming. Distributions of palsas in Fennoscandia were modelled using 5 climate envelope techniques (generalized linear modelling, generalized additive modelling, classification tree analysis, artificial neural networks and multiple adaptive regression splines). The models were studied with respect to their sensitivity to altered climate. Climate change scenarios were applied to assess possible impacts on the palsa distribution during the 21st century. The models achieved a good to very good agreement with the observed palsa distribution and thus suggest a strong dependency on climate. Even small increases of temperature (1°C) and precipitation (10%) resulted in considerable losses of areas suitable for palsa development. Of the 5 models tested, 3 predicted the total disappearance of regions suitable for palsa development with an increased mean annual temperature of 4°C. Under climate change scenarios based on 7 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) the models indicated that the degradation of palsas will proceed very quickly. All but one climate scenario resulted in the total disappearance of suitable regions for palsa development by the end of the 21st century. Potential impacts of degrading palsa mires on biodiversity and carbon balance are the loss of habitat for migrating bird species and the increase in CH<SUB>4</SUB> emissions.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr032001},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v32/n1/p1-12/},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2682,
   author = {Fuchs, M. and Kuhry, P. and Hugelius, G.},
   title = {Low below-ground organic carbon storage in a subarctic Alpine permafrost environment},
   journal = {The Cryosphere},
   volume = {9},
   number = {2},
   pages = {427-438},
   note = {TC
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/427/2015/tc-9-427-2015.pdf},
   ISSN = {1994-0424},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-427-2015},
   url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/9/427/2015/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2523,
   author = {Funkey, Carolina P. and Conley, Daniel J. and Reuss, Nina S. and Humborg, Christoph and Jilbert, Tom and Slomp, Caroline P.},
   title = {Hypoxia Sustains Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {48},
   number = {5},
   pages = {2598-2602},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es404395a},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es404395a},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3362,
   author = {FutureMARES},
   title = {Climate Change and Future Marine Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity},
   number = {22.07.2021},
   url = {https://www.futuremares.eu/},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN2816,
   author = {Gaget, Elie and Pavón-Jordán, Diego and Johnston, Alison and Lehikoinen, Aleksi and Hochachka, Wesley M. and Sandercock, Brett K. and Soultan, Alaaeldin and Azafzaf, Hichem and Bendjedda, Nadjiba and Bino, Taulant and Božič, Luka and Clausen, Preben and Dakki, Mohamed and Devos, Koen and Domsa, Cristi and Encarnação, Vitor and Erciyas-Yavuz, Kiraz and Faragó, Sándor and Frost, Teresa and Gaudard, Clemence and Gosztonyi, Lívia and Haas, Fredrik and Hornman, Menno and Langendoen, Tom and Ieronymidou, Christina and Kostyushin, Vasiliy A. and Lewis, Lesley J. and Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon and Luiujoe, Leho and Meissner, Włodzimierz and Mikuska, Tibor and Molina, Blas and Musilová, Zuzana and Natykanets, Viktor and Paquet, Jean-Yves and Petkov, Nicky and Portolou, Danae and Ridzoň, Jozef and Sayoud, Samir and Šćiban, Marko and Sniauksta, Laimonas and Stīpniece, Antra and Strebel, Nicolas and Teufelbauer, Norbert and Topić, Goran and Uzunova, Danka and Vizi, Andrej and Wahl, Johannes and Zenatello, Marco and Brommer, Jon E.},
   title = {Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming},
   journal = {Conservation Biology},
   volume = {n/a},
   number = {n/a},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species show a so-called climatic debt, where shifts in range have lagged behind faster shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extinction rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extinction processes is important to inform conservation strategies, aiming for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. Here, we assess the colonization-extinction dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate, inside and outside PAs, for changes in the occurrence of non-breeding waterbird species in the Western-Palearctic over 25 years (97 species, 7,071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate the species turn-over induced by temperature increase. In addition, we measured whether the thermal community adjustment was led by colonization by warm-dwelling species and/or extinction of cold-dwelling species, by modelling the change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTIsd). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities within PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change compared to unprotected sites. Combining the CTI and CTIsd, we found that communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extinction and the climatic debt was 16% lower than of sites outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest the importance of PAs to facilitate two independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was however not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the strong temperature increase in central and northeastern Western-Palearctic regions. Our study underlines the potential of the combined CTI and CTIsd metrics to understand the colonization-extinction patterns driven by climate warming. Article impact statement: Protected areas are needed to facilitate waterbird distribution change in response to climate warming in the Western Palearctic. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved},
   ISSN = {0888-8892},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13648},
   url = {https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cobi.13648},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2017,
   author = {Gailiušis, Brunonas and Kriaučiūnienė, Jūratė and Jakimavičius, Darius and Šarauskienė, Diana},
   title = {The variability of long-term runoff series in the Baltic Sea drainage basin},
   journal = {Baltica},
   volume = {24},
   number = {1},
   pages = {45-54},
   ISSN = {0067-3064},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2442,
   author = {Gaillard, Marie-José and Kleinen, Thomas and Samuelsson, Patrick and Nielsen, Anne Birgitte and Bergh, Johan and Kaplan, Jed and Poska, Anneli and Sandström, Camilla and Strandberg, Gustav and Trondman, Anna-Kari and Wramneby, Anna},
   title = {Causes of Regional Change—Land Cover},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {453-477},
   abstract = {Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestationReforestationmight not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_25},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_25},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2895,
   author = {Galatius, Anders and Kinze, Carl Christian and Teilmann, Jonas},
   title = {Population structure of harbour porpoises in the Baltic region: evidence of separation based on geometric morphometric comparisons},
   journal = {Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom},
   volume = {92},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1669-1676},
   abstract = {The harbour porpoise is seriously depleted and threatened with extinction in the Baltic Sea. It is usually assumed that Baltic porpoises form a separate population unit, although the evidence for this has been disputed lately. Here, a 3-D geometric morphometric approach was employed to test a number of hypotheses regarding population structure of the harbour porpoise in the Baltic region. 277 porpoise skulls from Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Germany and Poland were measured with a suite of 3-D landmarks. Statistical analyses revealed highly significant shape differences between porpoises from the North Sea, Belt Sea and the inner Baltic Sea. A comparison of the directionalities of the shape vectors between these units found differences that cannot be attributed to a general, continual shape trend going from the North Sea to the inner Baltic Sea. These vectors indicate a morphological adaptation to the specific sub-areas. Such adaptation may be the result of the topographic peculiarities of the area with variable topography and shallow waters, e.g. in the Belt Sea porpoises, there may be a greater reliance on benthic and demersal prey. The present results show that isolation by distance alone is an unlikely explanation for the differences found within the Baltic region and thus support previously reported molecular indications of a separate population within the inner Baltic Sea.},
   keywords = {harbour porpoise
population structure
geometric morphometrics
skull
Baltic Sea
Belt Sea
North Sea
conservation
morphological adaptation},
   ISSN = {0025-3154},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0025315412000513},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/population-structure-of-harbour-porpoises-in-the-baltic-region-evidence-of-separation-based-on-geometric-morphometric-comparisons/58D16135E3E90AB8908F14D94F56404E},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2444,
   author = {Gao, Y. and Markkanen, T. and Backman, L. and Henttonen, H. M. and Pietikäinen, J. P. and Mäkelä, H. M. and Laaksonen, A.},
   title = {Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {11},
   number = {24},
   pages = {7251-7267},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-7251-2014},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/7251/2014/},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2524,
   author = {Garzke, Jessica and Ismar, Stefanie M. H. and Sommer, Ulrich},
   title = {Climate change affects low trophic level marine consumers: warming decreases copepod size and abundance},
   journal = {Oecologia},
   volume = {177},
   number = {3},
   pages = {849-860},
   abstract = {Concern about climate change has re-ignited interest in universal ecological responses to temperature variations: (1) biogeographical shifts, (2) phenology changes, and (3) size shifts. In this study we used copepods as model organisms to study size responses to temperature because of their central role in the pelagic food web and because of the ontogenetic length constancy between molts, which facilitates the definition of size of distinct developmental stages. In order to test the expected temperature-induced shifts towards smaller body size and lower abundances under warming conditions, a mesocosm experiment using plankton from the Baltic Sea at three temperature levels (ambient, ambient +4 °C, ambient −4 °C) was performed in summer 2010. Overall copepod and copepodit abundances, copepod size at all life stages, and adult copepod size in particular, showed significant temperature effects. As expected, zooplankton peak abundance was lower in warm than in ambient treatments. Copepod size-at-immature stage significantly increased in cold treatments, while adult size significantly decreased in warm treatments.},
   ISSN = {1432-1939},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-014-3130-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-014-3130-4},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3467,
   author = {Gastineau, Guillaume and Frankignoul, Claude},
   title = {Influence of the North Atlantic SST Variability on the Atmospheric Circulation during the Twentieth Century},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {28},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1396-1416},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00424.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/4/jcli-d-14-00424.1.xml},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2376,
   author = {Gaston, Kevin J. and Blackburn, Tim M. and Greenwood, Jeremy J.D. and Gregory, Richard D. and Quinn, Rachel M. and Lawton, John H.},
   title = {Abundance–occupancy relationships},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
   volume = {37},
   number = {s1},
   pages = {39-59},
   abstract = {1. The abundance and distribution of species tend to be linked, such that species declining in abundance often tend also to show declines in the number of sites they occupy, while species increasing in abundance tend also to be increasing in occupancy. Therefore, intraspecific abundance–occupancy relationships are commonly positive. 2. The intraspecific pattern is mirrored by more general positive interspecific abundance–occupancy relationships: widespread species tend to be abundant, and narrowly distributed species rare. 3. Here, we review recent research on these patterns based on the flora and fauna of the British Isles. We assess their generality, describe what is currently known about their structure, and summarize the results of tests of the several hypotheses proposed to explain their existence. 4. The positive form generally exhibited by abundance–occupancy relationships, intraspecific or interspecific, has consequences for several areas of applied ecology, including conservation, harvesting, biological invasions and biodiversity inventorying. These implications are discussed briefly.},
   ISSN = {0021-8901},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00485.x},
   url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00485.x},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3350,
   author = {Gattuso, Jean-Pierre and Magnan, Alexandre K. and Bopp, Laurent and Cheung, William W. L. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Hinkel, Jochen and Mcleod, Elizabeth and Micheli, Fiorenza and Oschlies, Andreas and Williamson, Phillip and Billé, Raphaël and Chalastani, Vasiliki I. and Gates, Ruth D. and Irisson, Jean-Olivier and Middelburg, Jack J. and Pörtner, Hans-Otto and Rau, Greg H.},
   title = {Ocean Solutions to Address Climate Change and Its Effects on Marine Ecosystems},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {5},
   number = {337},
   abstract = {The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5–2°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.},
   keywords = {Climate Change,ocean acidification,Ocean solutions,global,local,governance},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00337},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00337},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3039,
   author = {Gauss, Michael and Bartnicki, Jerzy and Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka and Nyiri, Agnes and Klein, Heiko and Fagerli, Hilde and Klimont, Zbigniew},
   title = {Airborne nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea: Past trends, source allocation and future projections},
   journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
   volume = {253},
   pages = {118377},
   abstract = {Despite significant reductions in nitrogen emissions achieved in Europe during the last three decades, eutrophication remains an environmental concern in the Baltic Sea basin. Recently, a number of comprehensive modelling studies have been conducted for the HELCOM Commission to inform the 2021 update of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The calculations have focused on trends in airborne nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea and its nine sub-basins during the 2000–2017 period, the identification and ranking of the main contributors to deposition, as well as future projections for 2030, assuming compliance with the Gothenburg Protocol and the EU NEC Directive. This paper synthesizes the main results from these studies and puts them into the context of maximum allowable nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. According to our results, the airborne annual deposition to the Baltic Sea in 2017 amounted to 122.6 Gg(N) of oxidized nitrogen and 105.3 Gg(N) of reduced nitrogen, corresponding to a decrease since 2000 by, respectively, 39% and 11%. In order to filter out the large inter-annual variability due to meteorology and to better reflect trends in emissions, weather-normalized depositions of nitrogen have been calculated as well, according to which the decreases since 2000 amount to 35%, 7% and 25% for oxidized, reduced and total nitrogen, respectively. In 2017, Germany, Poland and Denmark were the most important contributors to airborne deposition of total (oxidized + reduced) nitrogen to the Baltic Sea. Agriculture contributed most to reduced nitrogen deposition, while the transport sector contributed most to oxidized nitrogen deposition. Agriculture in Germany was the single-most important contributor to nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea in 2017 (accounting for about 15% of the total), but there are numerous other important sectoral contributions. Emissions of nitrogen from the nine HELCOM Contracting Parties contributed 49%, 76% and 61% to oxidized, reduced and total nitrogen deposition, respectively. Assuming full compliance with the EU NEC Directive and the Gothenburg Protocol, significant further reductions in nitrogen deposition can be achieved by 2030, down to an annual deposition of 72.7 Gg(N) and 84.7 Gg(N) of oxidized and reduced nitrogen, respectively.},
   keywords = {Nitrogen emissions
Atmospheric transport
Airborne nitrogen deposition
Baltic sea
Source allocation},
   ISSN = {1352-2310},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118377},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231021001965},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3026,
   author = {Gauss, Michael and Bartnicki, Jerzy and Klein, Heiko},
   title = {Atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea},
   institution = {https://emep.int/publ/helcom/2018/B_BSEFS_N_dep_v2.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2446,
   author = {Gauss, Michael and Jonson, Jan Eiof and Nyíri, Ágnes},
   title = {Emissions from international shipping, EMEP Status Report 1/2017},
   DOI = {https://emep.int/publ/reports/2017/EMEP_Status_Report_1_2017.pdf},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2401,
   author = {Geels, Camilla and Andersson, Camilla and Hänninen, Otto and Lansø, Anne Sofie and Schwarze, Per E. and Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas and Brandt, Jørgen},
   title = {Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock},
   journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
   volume = {12},
   number = {3},
   pages = {2837-2869},
   ISSN = {1660-4601},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/3/2837},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3389,
   author = {Giesse, Céline and Meier, H. E. Markus and Neumann, Thomas and Moros, Matthias},
   title = {Revisiting the Role of Convective Deep Water Formation in Northern Baltic Sea Bottom Water Renewal},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {125},
   number = {10},
   pages = {e2020JC016114},
   abstract = {Abstract Deep water renewal and ventilation of the Baltic Sea is commonly considered to occur solely via saltwater inflows from the North Sea. However, recent analysis of geophysical and sediment proxy data suggests convective deep water formation during wintertime as a second process that has contributed to the ventilation of the northern and central Baltic Sea bottom waters during cold climate periods. Here, we investigate the role of deep water formation in the northern Baltic Sea in a regional ocean circulation model. Selecting the particularly cold winter 1986/1987 as a reference period, we perform sensitivity experiments in which the atmospheric temperature forcing is changed and/or localized brine rejection on subgrid scales is accounted for through a parameterization. We study the sinking and circulation of water masses via passive tracers introduced into the model. Generally, our model results support the established view that convective deep water formation does not play a major role in Baltic Sea deep water renewal. While a reduction of air temperatures does not qualitatively change the sinking and circulation of water masses in our experiments, brine rejection could potentially lead to localized deep water formation. However, the impact is too weak to possibly change the large-scale deep water exchange between the Baltic proper and the northern Baltic sub-basins. Although being in line with established knowledge, through consideration of the model limitations, our results provide insights on how and under which circumstances convective deep water formation could potentially have occurred during cold climate periods.},
   ISSN = {2169-9275},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016114},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020JC016114},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1994,
   author = {Gilbert, D. and Rabalais, N. N. and Díaz, R. J. and Zhang, J.},
   title = {Evidence for greater oxygen decline rates in the coastal ocean than in the open ocean},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {7},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2283-2296},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2283-2010},
   url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/7/2283/2010/},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2750,
   author = {Gillett, Nathan P. and Arora, Vivek K. and Matthews, Damon and Allen, Myles R.},
   title = {Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {26},
   number = {18},
   pages = {6844-6858},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00476.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/18/jcli-d-12-00476.1.xml},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1896,
   author = {Gimeno, Luis and Stohl, Andreas and Trigo, Ricardo M. and Dominguez, Francina and Yoshimura, Kei and Yu, Lisan and Drumond, Anita and Durán-Quesada, Ana María and Nieto, Raquel},
   title = {Oceanic and terrestrial sources of continental precipitation},
   journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
   volume = {50},
   number = {4},
   abstract = {The most important sources of atmospheric moisture at the global scale are herein identified, both oceanic and terrestrial, and a characterization is made of how continental regions are influenced by water from different moisture source regions. The methods used to establish source-sink relationships of atmospheric water vapor are reviewed, and the advantages and caveats associated with each technique are discussed. The methods described include analytical and box models, numerical water vapor tracers, and physical water vapor tracers (isotopes). In particular, consideration is given to the wide range of recently developed Lagrangian techniques suitable both for evaluating the origin of water that falls during extreme precipitation events and for establishing climatologies of moisture source-sink relationships. As far as oceanic sources are concerned, the important role of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean provides moisture for precipitation to the largest continental area, extending from Mexico to parts of Eurasia, and even to the South American continent during the Northern Hemisphere winter. In contrast, the influence of the southern Indian Ocean and North Pacific Ocean sources extends only over smaller continental areas. The South Pacific and the Indian Ocean represent the principal source of moisture for both Australia and Indonesia. Some landmasses only receive moisture from the evaporation that occurs in the same hemisphere (e.g., northern Europe and eastern North America), while others receive moisture from both hemispheres with large seasonal variations (e.g., northern South America). The monsoonal regimes in India, tropical Africa, and North America are provided with moisture from a large number of regions, highlighting the complexities of the global patterns of precipitation. Some very important contributions are also seen from relatively small areas of ocean, such as the Mediterranean Basin (important for Europe and North Africa) and the Red Sea, which provides water for a large area between the Gulf of Guinea and Indochina (summer) and between the African Great Lakes and Asia (winter). The geographical regions of Eurasia, North and South America, and Africa, and also the internationally important basins of the Mississippi, Amazon, Congo, and Yangtze Rivers, are also considered, as is the importance of terrestrial sources in monsoonal regimes. The role of atmospheric rivers, and particularly their relationship with extreme events, is discussed. Droughts can be caused by the reduced supply of water vapor from oceanic moisture source regions. Some of the implications of climate change for the hydrological cycle are also reviewed, including changes in water vapor concentrations, precipitation, soil moisture, and aridity. It is important to achieve a combined diagnosis of moisture sources using all available information, including stable water isotope measurements. A summary is given of the major research questions that remain unanswered, including (1) the lack of a full understanding of how moisture sources influence precipitation isotopes; (2) the stationarity of moisture sources over long periods; (3) the way in which possible changes in intensity (where evaporation exceeds precipitation to a greater of lesser degree), and the locations of the sources, (could) affect the distribution of continental precipitation in a changing climate; and (4) the role played by the main modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, in the variability of the moisture source regions, as well as a full evaluation of the moisture transported by low-level jets and atmospheric rivers.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012RG000389},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012RG000389},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3217,
   author = {Ginter, K. and Kangur, K. and Kangur, A. and Kangur, P. and Haldna, M.},
   title = {Diet niche relationships among predator and prey fish species in their early life stages in Lake Võrtsjärv (Estonia)},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Ichthyology},
   volume = {28},
   number = {5},
   pages = {713-720},
   abstract = {Summary In Lake Võrtsjärv pikeperch was observed not to shift to piscivory in their first autumn of life, although juvenile stages of a variety of fish species were abundant in the lake. It was hypothesized that the diets of predator and prey fish fry overlap and that coarse fish species are important food competitors for juvenile piscivores and thus, pikeperch and perch fry do not shift to piscivory during their first growing season. To discover the possible linkages in this pattern, in 2009 the feeding relationships of pikeperch, perch, ruffe and roach fry were analysed. The stomach content analyses showed that in the summer period, Mesocyclops leuckarti was the most frequent prey for perch and ruffe, pikeperch consumed Leptodora kindti in large quantities, and roach ate mostly plant material. Towards autumn, M. leuckarti was the most abundant prey for all percids. However, average stomach content weight and the number of prey items eaten by ruffe were considerably higher than for other fish fry. Since the feeding opportunities of fish fry are considered poor in the examined lake, the prey has the potential to restrict the recruitment to piscivory of their predators, as prey fish seem to have better abilities to persist in this ecosystem. Furthermore, supposed competition in the juvenile stage may result in a reduced top-down effect on coarse fish.},
   ISSN = {0175-8659},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0426.2012.02008.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1439-0426.2012.02008.x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1909,
   author = {Giorgi, Filippo},
   title = {Simulation of Regional Climate Using a Limited Area Model Nested in a General Circulation Model},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {3},
   number = {9},
   pages = {941-963},
   abstract = {Abstract A Limited Area Model (LAM) is nested in a General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the January climate over the western United States. In the nesting procedure, the GCM output is used to provide the initial and lateral atmospheric boundary conditions necessary to drive the LAM. In this approach, the GCM is used to simulate realistic large-scale atmospheric behavior over an area of interest and the LAM to describe the effect of local, sub-GCM grid scale forcings (such as those induced by the complex western United States topography) on regional patterns of climatic variables. Two versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model [the seasonal CCM1 at 4.5° × 7.5° (R15) and 2.89° × 2.89° (T42) latitude-longitude resolution] are used to drive a version of the Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM4 at 60 km resolution), which includes sophisticated soil hydrology calculations. The CCM1 large-scale January climatology over the region is analyzed first. Comparison with large-scale observations shows that geopotential height, zonal wind, temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, precipitation and storm frequencies over the western United States and adjacent oceans are realistically simulated by both the T42 and R15 models. The T42 model, however, reproduces storm frequencies and strength and position of the jet stream better than the R15 model. A number of month-long January simulations were performed using both the R15 and T42 model outputs to drive the MM4. The large-scale average circulations over the western United States simulated by the nested MM4 are not substantially different from those of the driving CCM1, both when outputs from the R15 and T42 versions are used to drive the MM4. Owing to the more realistic topography in the MM4, the nested model system produces better regional detail of precipitation and temperature distribution than the CCM1 alone. Temperature and precipitation means, as well as frequencies of daily precipitation intensifies simulated by the nested MM4, compare well with high resolution observations, particularly in their spatial distribution. Also discussed am results of regional snow cover, cloudiness, and soil hydrology calculations included in the MM4.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<0941:Sorcua>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281990%29003%3C0941%3ASORCUA%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1990},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1932,
   author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Gao, Xue-Jie},
   title = {Regional earth system modeling: review and future directions},
   journal = {Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters},
   volume = {11},
   number = {2},
   pages = {189-197},
   ISSN = {1674-2834},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1452520},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2018.1452520},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1943,
   author = {Giorgi, Filippo and Mearns, Linda O.},
   title = {Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: A review},
   journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
   volume = {29},
   number = {2},
   pages = {191-216},
   abstract = {The increasing demand by the scientific community, policy makers, and the public for realistic projections of possible regional impacts of future climate changes has rendered the issue of regional climate simulation critically important. The problem of projecting regional climate changes can be identified as that of representing effects of atmospheric forcings on two different spatial scales: large-scale forcings, i.e., forcings which modify the general circulation and determine the sequence of weather events which characterize the climate regime of a given region (for example, greenhouse gas abundance), and mesoscale forcings, i.e., forcings which modify the local circulations, thereby regulating the regional distribution of climatic variables (for example, complex mountainous systems). General circulation models (GCMs) are the main tools available today for climate simulation. However, they are run and will likely be run for the next several years at resolutions which are too coarse to adequately describe mesoscale forcings and yield accurate regional climate detail. This paper presents a review of these approaches. They can be divided in three broad categories: (1) Purely empirical approaches, in which the forcings are not explicitly accounted for, but regional climate scenarios are constructed by using instrumental data records or paleoclimatic analogues; (2) semiempirical approaches, in which GCMs are used to describe the atmospheric response to large-scale forcings of relevance to climate changes, and empirical techniques account for the effect of mesoscale forcings; and (3) modeling approaches, in which mesoscale forcings are described by increasing the model resolution only over areas of interest. Since they are computationally inexpensive, empirical and semiempirical techniques have been so far more widely used. Their application to regional climate change projection is, however, limited by their own empiricism and by the availability of data sets of adequate quality. More recently, a nested GCM-limited area model methodology for regional climate simulation has been developed, with encouraging preliminary results. As it is physically, rather than empirically, based, the nested modeling framework has a wide range of applications.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/90RG02636},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/90RG02636},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3406,
   author = {Girjatowicz, Józef P},
   title = {Ice thrusts and piles on the shores of the Southern Baltic Sea coast (Poland) lagoons},
   journal = {Baltic Coastal Zone. Journal of Ecology and Protection of the Coastline},
   volume = {8},
   pages = {5-22},
   ISSN = {1643-0115},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2100,
   author = {Girjatowicz, Józef P. and Łabuz, Tomasz A.},
   title = {Forms of piled ice at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {239},
   pages = {106746},
   abstract = {The paper presents the topography, morphology, and structure of various forms of piled ice observed at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea. The authors distinguished pressured ice, grease ice ridge, ridge ice, and hummock ice, based on the results of observations, measurements and photographic documentation that were collected by the authors in the years 1979–2019. Cross-sections of the forms were prepared based on the results of manual drilling. The recognised forms were then classified according to their structure, topography, and morphology as well as the genetic conditions of the region. The distinguished forms of piled ice differ not only in terms of the type and structure of the ice that they consist of, but also in terms of topography and the piling factor: wind, wave movements, and currents.},
   keywords = {Shore ice forms
Ice piling-up factors
Diversity of piled ice
Baltic sea},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106746},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771420300846},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2700,
   author = {Gisnås, Kjersti and Etzelmüller, Bernd and Lussana, Cristian and Hjort, Jan and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Isaksen, Ketil and Westermann, Sebastian and Kuhry, Peter and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Frampton, Andrew and Åkerman, Jonas},
   title = {Permafrost Map for Norway, Sweden and Finland},
   journal = {Permafrost and Periglacial Processes},
   volume = {28},
   number = {2},
   pages = {359-378},
   abstract = {Abstract A research-based understanding of permafrost distribution at a sufficient spatial resolution is important to meet the demands of science, education and society. We present a new permafrost map for Norway, Sweden and Finland that provides a more detailed and updated description of permafrost distribution in this area than previously available. We implemented the CryoGRID1 model at 1 km2 resolution, forced by a new operationally gridded data-set of daily air temperature and snow cover for Finland, Norway and Sweden. Hundred model realisations were run for each grid cell, based on statistical snow distributions, allowing for the representation of sub-grid variability of ground temperature. The new map indicates a total permafrost area (excluding palsas) of 23 400 km2 in equilibrium with the average 1981–2010 climate, corresponding to 2.2 per cent of the total land area. About 56 per cent of the area is in Norway, 35 per cent in Sweden and 9 per cent in Finland. The model results are thoroughly evaluated, both quantitatively and qualitatively, as a collaboration project including permafrost experts in the three countries. Observed ground temperatures from 25 boreholes are within ± 2 °C of the average modelled grid cell ground temperature, and all are within the range of the modelled ground temperature for the corresponding grid cell. Qualitative model evaluation by field investigators within the three countries shows that the map reproduces the observed lower altitudinal limits of mountain permafrost and the distribution of lowland permafrost. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
   ISSN = {1045-6740},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.1922},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ppp.1922},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2873,
   author = {Glantz, Paul and Freud, Eyal and Johansson, Christer and Noone, Kevin J. and Tesche, Matthias},
   title = {Trends in MODIS and AERONET derived aerosol optical thickness over Northern Europe},
   journal = {Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology},
   volume = {71},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1554414},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1554414},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1554414},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3372,
   author = {Gogina, Mayya and Zettler, Michael L and Wåhlström, Irene and Andersson, Helén and Radtke, Hagen and Kuznetsov, Ivan and MacKenzie, Brian R},
   title = {A combination of species distribution and ocean-biogeochemical models suggests that climate change overrides eutrophication as the driver of future distributions of a key benthic crustacean in the estuarine ecosystem of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {77},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2089-2105},
   abstract = {Species in the brackish and estuarine ecosystems will experience multiple changes in hydrographic variables due to ongoing climate change and nutrient loads. Here, we investigate how a glacial relict species (Saduria entomon), having relatively cold, low salinity biogeographic origin, could be affected by the combined scenarios of climate change and eutrophication. It is an important prey for higher trophic-level species such as cod, and a predator of other benthic animals. We constructed habitat distribution models based occurrence and density of this species across the entire Baltic and estimated the relative importance of different driving variables. We then used two regional coupled ocean-biogeochemical models to investigate the combined impacts of two future climate change and nutrient loads scenarios on its spatial distribution in 2070–2100. According to the scenarios, the Baltic Sea will become warmer and fresher. Our results show that expected changes in salinity and temperature outrank those due to two nutrient-load scenarios (Baltic Sea Action Plan and business as usual) in their effect on S. entomon distribution. The results are relatively similar when using different models with the same scenarios, thereby increasing the confidence of projections. Overall, our models predict a net increase (and local declines) of suitable habitat area, total abundance and biomass for this species, which is probably facilitated by strong osmoregulation ability and tolerance to temperature changes. We emphasize the necessity of considering multiple hydrographic variables when estimating climate change impacts on species living in brackish and estuarine systems.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa107},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa107},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3230,
   author = {Gollasch, S.},
   title = {The Importance of Ship Hull Fouling as a Vector of Species Introductions into the North Sea},
   journal = {Biofouling},
   volume = {18},
   number = {2},
   pages = {105-121},
   ISSN = {0892-7014},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08927010290011361},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08927010290011361},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3231,
   author = {Gollasch, Stephan and Lenz, Jürgen and Dammer, Mark and Andres, Hans-Georg},
   title = {Survival of tropical ballast water organisms during a cruise from the Indian Ocean to the North Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Plankton Research},
   volume = {22},
   number = {5},
   pages = {923-937},
   abstract = {In an assessment of non-indigenous species transported by international ship traffic to German waters, commissioned by the German Federal Environmental Agency, the survival of tropical plankton organisms in ballast water was studied by accompanying a container vessel on its 23-day voyage from Singapore to Bremerhaven in Germany. Two tanks, one filled off Singapore and the other off Colombo, Sri Lanka, were monitored for their phyto- and zooplankton content by daily sampling. As already reported in previous studies, species abundance and diversity, especially of zooplankton, decreased sharply during the first days, and only a few specimens survived the whole cruise. The contents of the Colombo tank, however, changed dramatically during the last week. The harpacticoid copepod, Tisbe graciloides, increased its abundance by a factor of 100 from 0.1 to 10ind. l–1 within a few days. This is the first time that a ballast water organism has been found to multiply at such a high rate. Opportunistic species such as Tisbe are apparently able to thrive and propagate in ballast water tanks under certain conditions. Ballast water tanks may thus serve as incubators for certain species depending on their characteristics.},
   ISSN = {0142-7873},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/22.5.923},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/22.5.923},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3070,
   author = {Gonçalves-Ageitos, M. and Barrera-Escoda, A. and Baldasano, J. M. and Cunillera, J.},
   title = {Modelling wind resources in climate change scenarios in complex terrains},
   journal = {Renewable Energy},
   volume = {76},
   pages = {670-678},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.066},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.066},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1730,
   author = {Gordon, Chris and Cooper, Claire and Senior, Catherine A and Banks, Helene and Gregory, Jonathan M and Johns, Timonthy C and Mitchell, John F B and Wood, Richard A},
   title = {The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {16},
   number = {2-3},
   pages = {147-168},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050010},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2101,
   author = {Gorokhova, Elena and Lehtiniemi, Maiju and Postel, Lutz and Rubene, Gunta and Amid, Callis and Lesutiene, Jurate and Uusitalo, Laura and Strake, Solvita and Demereckiene, Natalja},
   title = {Indicator Properties of Baltic Zooplankton for Classification of Environmental Status within Marine Strategy Framework Directive},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {11},
   number = {7},
   pages = {e0158326},
   abstract = {The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the EU Member States to estimate the level of anthropogenic impacts on their marine systems using 11 Descriptors. Assessing food web response to altered habitats is addressed by Descriptor 4 and its indicators, which are being developed for regional seas. However, the development of simple foodweb indicators able to assess the health of ecologically diverse, spatially variable and complex interactions is challenging. Zooplankton is a key element in marine foodwebs and thus comprise an important part of overall ecosystem health. Here, we review work on zooplankton indicator development using long-term data sets across the Baltic Sea and report the main findings. A suite of zooplankton community metrics were evaluated as putative ecological indicators that track community state in relation to Good Environmental Status (GES) criteria with regard to eutrophication and fish feeding conditions in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of an operational definition of GES, we propose mean body mass of zooplankton in the community in combination with zooplankton stock measured as either abundance or biomass to be applicable as an integrated indicator that could be used within the Descriptor 4 in the Baltic Sea. These metrics performed best in predicting zooplankton being in-GES when considering all datasets evaluated. However, some other metrics, such as copepod biomass, the contribution of copepods to the total zooplankton biomass or biomass-based Cladocera: Copepoda ratio, were equally reliable or even superior in certain basin-specific assessments. Our evaluation suggests that in several basins of the Baltic Sea, zooplankton communities currently appear to be out-of-GES, being comprised by smaller zooplankters and having lower total abundance or biomass compared to the communities during the reference conditions; however, the changes in the taxonomic structure underlying these trends vary widely across the sea basins due to the estuarine character of the Baltic Sea.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158326},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158326},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2447,
   author = {Graf, Alexander and Klosterhalfen, Anne and Arriga, Nicola and Bernhofer, Christian and Bogena, Heye and Bornet, Frédéric and Brüggemann, Nicolas and Brümmer, Christian and Buchmann, Nina and Chi, Jinshu and Chipeaux, Christophe and Cremonese, Edoardo and Cuntz, Matthias and Dušek, Jiří and El-Madany, Tarek S. and Fares, Silvano and Fischer, Milan and Foltýnová, Lenka and Gharun, Mana and Ghiasi, Shiva and Gielen, Bert and Gottschalk, Pia and Grünwald, Thomas and Heinemann, Günther and Heinesch, Bernard and Heliasz, Michal and Holst, Jutta and Hörtnagl, Lukas and Ibrom, Andreas and Ingwersen, Joachim and Jurasinski, Gerald and Klatt, Janina and Knohl, Alexander and Koebsch, Franziska and Konopka, Jan and Korkiakoski, Mika and Kowalska, Natalia and Kremer, Pascal and Kruijt, Bart and Lafont, Sebastien and Léonard, Joël and Ligne, Anne De and Longdoz, Bernard and Loustau, Denis and Magliulo, Vincenzo and Mammarella, Ivan and Manca, Giovanni and Mauder, Matthias and Migliavacca, Mirco and Mölder, Meelis and Neirynck, Johan and Ney, Patrizia and Nilsson, Mats and Paul-Limoges, Eugénie and Peichl, Matthias and Pitacco, Andrea and Poyda, Arne and Rebmann, Corinna and Roland, Marilyn and Sachs, Torsten and Schmidt, Marius and Schrader, Frederik and Siebicke, Lukas and Šigut, Ladislav and Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina and Varlagin, Andrej and Vendrame, Nadia and Vincke, Caroline and Völksch, Ingo and Weber, Stephan and Wille, Christian and Wizemann, Hans-Dieter and Zeeman, Matthias and Vereecken, Harry},
   title = {Altered energy partitioning across terrestrial ecosystems in the European drought year 2018},
   journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
   volume = {375},
   number = {1810},
   pages = {20190524},
   abstract = {Drought and heat events, such as the 2018 European drought, interact with the exchange of energy between the land surface and the atmosphere, potentially affecting albedo, sensible and latent heat fluxes, as well as CO2 exchange. Each of these quantities may aggravate or mitigate the drought, heat, their side effects on productivity, water scarcity and global warming. We used measurements of 56 eddy covariance sites across Europe to examine the response of fluxes to extreme drought prevailing most of the year 2018 and how the response differed across various ecosystem types (forests, grasslands, croplands and peatlands). Each component of the surface radiation and energy balance observed in 2018 was compared to available data per site during a reference period 2004–2017. Based on anomalies in precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, we classified 46 sites as drought affected. These received on average 9% more solar radiation and released 32% more sensible heat to the atmosphere compared to the mean of the reference period. In general, drought decreased net CO2 uptake by 17.8%, but did not significantly change net evapotranspiration. The response of these fluxes differed characteristically between ecosystems; in particular, the general increase in the evaporative index was strongest in peatlands and weakest in croplands. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0524},
   url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2019.0524 },
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1731,
   author = {Graham, L Phil and Hagemann, Stefan and Jaun, Simon and Beniston, Martin},
   title = {On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {97-122},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9217-0},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3137,
   author = {Graham, L. Phil},
   title = {Climate Change Effects on River Flow to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {33},
   number = {4},
   pages = {235-241, 7},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.235},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-33.4.235},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1732,
   author = {Graham, Phil},
   title = {Modeling runoff to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {28},
   number = {4},
   pages = {328-334},
   ISSN = {0044-7447},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2102,
   author = {Graham, Phil and Olsson, Jonas and Kjellström, Erik and Rosberg, Jörgen and Hellström, Sara-Sofia and Berndtsson, Ronny},
   title = {Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {14},
   number = {1},
   pages = {173-182},
   note = {2017-12-04T19:03:30.967+01:00},
   abstract = {The aim of this study was to reconstruct river flow to the Baltic Sea using data from different periods during the past thousand years. A hydrological model coupled to simulations from climate models was used to estimate river flow. A ""millennium"" simulation of past climate from the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model provided climatological inputs. Results from this global model were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model over northern Europe. Temperature and precipitation from the downscaled simulation results were then used in the HBV hydrological model to simulate river flows to the Baltic Sea for the periods 1000-1199 and 1551-1929. These were compared with observations for the period 1921-2002. A general conclusion from this work is that although climate has varied during the past millennium, variability in annual river flow to the Baltic Sea does not appear more pronounced in recent years than during the previous millennium, or vice versa.},
   keywords = {Climate Research
Klimatforskning},
   ISSN = {12396095 (ISSN)
17972469 (EISSN)},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-633},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2525,
   author = {Graiff, Angelika and Liesner, Daniel and Karsten, Ulf and Bartsch, Inka},
   title = {Temperature tolerance of western Baltic Sea Fucus vesiculosus – growth, photosynthesis and survival},
   journal = {Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology},
   volume = {471},
   pages = {8-16},
   abstract = {Seaweeds provide important ecosystem services in coastal areas, and loss of these macrophytes due to anthropogenic global change and warming is a worldwide concern. Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) is the most abundant and hence ecologically most important primary producer, carbon sink and habitat provider in the western Baltic Sea. Therefore, we used this keystone species to test phenotypic acclimation of physiological performance traits (growth, photosynthesis and metabolites) of F. vesiculosus apices in a well-defined and highly resolved temperature gradient (5–29°C), supported by highly temporally resolved measurements. Temperature requirements of growth and photosynthesis were evaluated in three weeks exposure experiments, and changing tolerance ranges for survival over time were determined. Fucus vesiculosus was able to grow and survive over a temperature range from 5 to 26°C without any injury or visible damage of the apical growing meristem over all three weeks. However, at higher water temperatures (≥27°C) growth rapidly decreased from day three onwards and progressive necrosis was observed at 28 and 29°C. Stress-induced decrease in growth rate was already indicated by the effective quantum yield of chlorophyll fluorescence of photosystem II (PSII) several days in advance. Optimal temperature for photosynthesis (24°C), measured as electron transport rate, was higher compared to that for growth (15–20°C). Accordingly, the concentration of mannitol, the main product of photosynthesis, increased with higher temperatures. Understanding physiological responses of keystone macroalgae with respect to temperature and time is important, because rising global temperatures and summer heat wave frequencies and duration may affect the ecological functions of F. vesiculosus in the western Baltic Sea.},
   keywords = {Global warming
Seaweeds
PAM
Mannitol},
   ISSN = {0022-0981},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2015.05.009},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022098115001276},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3364,
   author = {Granéli, Edna and Kerstin, Wallström and Larsson, Ulf and Granéli, Wilhelm and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Nutrient Limitation of Primary Production in the Baltic Sea Area},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {19},
   number = {3},
   pages = {142-151},
   abstract = {[In the Baltic Sea area, including the Kattegat, the external N/P loading ratios are generally well above the 16:1 Redfield ratio for all subareas (the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea, the Baltic proper and the Kattegat). During winter, the inorganic N/P ratio in surface waters varies. Appreciably higher values than the loading ratio are found for the northernmost basin, the low-saline Bothnian Bay, while lower values than the loading ratio are found for the Baltic proper and the Kattegat. Nutrient enrichment tests indicate general N limitation in the Baltic proper and the Kattegat, although stimulation of algal growth after P enrichment has been found in the Baltic proper during summer blooms of blue-green algae. Blooms of blue-green algae are common in the Baltic proper but hardly ever occur in the Bothnian Bay and the Kattegat. This has been the case for the last century, indicating natural summer N limitation. Full-scale experimental manipulation of the external N/P loading ratio has been carried out in the Himmerfjärd basin, south of Stockholm. Results suggest nitrogen as the most limiting nutrient in coastal areas of the Baltic proper, uninfluenced by direct nutrient discharges. The knowledge of the effects of altered external nutrient supplies for nutrient limitation in the Baltic Sea system as a whole is too limited to allow for reliable predictions. However, the Baltic Sea may have developed towards a more pronounced N limitation due to a twofold historic increase in P supply relative to N supply. At present, the situation may be reversed as N supply is probably increasing more rapidly than P supply. Management of the Baltic Sea area cannot be based on removal of either N or P in sewage, but must take both elements into consideration, as well as differences between sub-basins and between polluted coastal and offshore areas.]},
   ISSN = {00447447, 16547209},
   url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4313680},
   year = {1990},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2104,
   author = {Green, Andy J. and Elmberg, Johan},
   title = {Ecosystem services provided by waterbirds},
   journal = {Biological Reviews},
   volume = {89},
   number = {1},
   pages = {105-122},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT Ecosystem services are ecosystem processes that directly or indirectly benefit human well-being. There has been much recent literature identifying different services and the communities and species that provide them. This is a vital first step towards management and maintenance of these services. In this review, we specifically address the waterbirds, which play key functional roles in many aquatic ecosystems, including as predators, herbivores and vectors of seeds, invertebrates and nutrients, although these roles have often been overlooked. Waterbirds can maintain the diversity of other organisms, control pests, be effective bioindicators of ecological conditions, and act as sentinels of potential disease outbreaks. They also provide important provisioning (meat, feathers, eggs, etc.) and cultural services to both indigenous and westernized societies. We identify key gaps in the understanding of ecosystem services provided by waterbirds and areas for future research required to clarify their functional role in ecosystems and the services they provide. We consider how the economic value of these services could be calculated, giving some examples. Such valuation will provide powerful arguments for waterbird conservation.},
   ISSN = {1464-7931},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12045},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12045},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN1733,
   author = {Griffies, Stephen M},
   title = {Fundamentals of ocean climate models},
   publisher = {Princeton University Press},
   volume = {518},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691187129},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2818,
   author = {Griffiths, Jennifer R. and Kadin, Martina and Nascimento, Francisco J. A. and Tamelander, Tobias and Törnroos, Anna and Bonaglia, Stefano and Bonsdorff, Erik and Brüchert, Volker and Gårdmark, Anna and Järnström, Marie and Kotta, Jonne and Lindegren, Martin and Nordström, Marie C. and Norkko, Alf and Olsson, Jens and Weigel, Benjamin and Žydelis, Ramunas and Blenckner, Thorsten and Niiranen, Susa and Winder, Monika},
   title = {The importance of benthic–pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {23},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2179-2196},
   abstract = {Abstract Benthic–pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic–pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures – climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing – using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic–pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic–pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13642},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13642},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2526,
   author = {Griffiths, Jennifer R. and Lehtinen, Sirpa and Suikkanen, Sanna and Winder, Monika},
   title = {Limited evidence for common interannual trends in Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton biomass},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {15},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e0231690},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community plays an important role in biogeochemical cycling and in the transfer of energy through the food web via zooplankton. We aimed to improve the understanding of the degree to which large-scale versus local environmental dynamics regulate phytoplankton dynamics by analyzing time series at the Baltic Sea scale. We used dynamic factor analysis to study if there are common patterns of interannual variation that are shared (“common trends”) among summer phytoplankton total and class-level biomass time series observed across Baltic Sea latitudinal gradients in salinity and temperature. We evaluated alternative hypotheses regarding common trends among summer phytoplankton biomass: Baltic Sea-wide common trends; common trends by geography (latitude and basin); common trends differing among functional groups (phytoplankton classes); or common trends driven by both geography and functional group. Our results indicated little support for a common trend in total summer phytoplankton biomass. At a finer resolution, classes had common trends that were most closely associated with the cryptophyte and cyanobacteria time series with patterns that differed between northern and southern sampling stations. These common trends were also very sensitive to two anomalous years (1990, 2008) of cryptophyte biomass. The Baltic Sea Index, a regional climate index, was correlated with two common class trends that shifted in mean state around the mid-1990s. The limited coherence in phytoplankton biomass variation over time despite known, large-scale, ecosystem shifts suggests that stochastic dynamics at local scales limits the ability to observe common trends at the scale of monitoring data collection.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231690},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0231690},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2422,
   author = {Grinsted, A.},
   title = {Projected Change - Sea Level},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {253-263},
   note = {read},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_14},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2720,
   author = {Grinsted, A. and Jevrejeva, S. and Riva, R. E. M. and Dahl-Jensen, D.},
   title = {Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {64},
   number = {1},
   pages = {15-23},
   note = {10.3354/cr01309},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea level rise is partly compensated by vertical land movement from glacial isostatic adjustment. We explore the uncertainties beyond the likely range provided by the IPCC, including the risk and potential rate of marine ice sheet collapse. Our median 21st century relative sea level rise projection is 0.8 m near London and Hamburg, with a relative sea level drop of 0.1 m in the Bay of Bothnia (near Oulu, Finland). Considerable uncertainties remain in both the sea level budget and in the regional expression of sea level rise. The greatest uncertainties are associated with Antarctic ice loss, and uncertainties are skewed towards higher values, with the 95th percentile being characterized by an additional 0.9 m sea level rise above median projections.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01309},
   url = {http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v64/n1/p15-23/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1541,
   author = {Grinsted, Aslak and Moore, John C and Jevrejeva, Svetlana},
   title = {Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series},
   journal = {Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {5-6},
   pages = {561-566},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2986,
   author = {Grise, Kevin M. and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
   title = {The response of midlatitude jets to increased CO2: Distinguishing the roles of sea surface temperature and direct radiative forcing},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {41},
   number = {19},
   pages = {6863-6871},
   abstract = {Abstract In Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation shifts robustly poleward in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, the circulation response to CO2 is largely absent in the zonal mean and is instead characterized by complex regional anomalies. This study decomposes the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing in CMIP5 models into two components: a direct component due to CO2 radiative forcing and an indirect component associated with sea surface temperature (SST)-mediated changes. The direct radiative forcing of CO2 drives a weak poleward jet shift in both hemispheres, whereas the indirect (SST) component of the CO2 forcing dominates the total response and drives a zonally asymmetric response in the NH. Hence, understanding the SST-mediated component of atmospheric CO2 forcing appears crucial to unlocking the mechanisms that contribute to forced extratropical circulation changes.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061638},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014GL061638},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2402,
   author = {Groetsch, P. M. M. and Simis, S. G. H. and Eleveld, M. A. and Peters, S. W. M.},
   title = {Spring blooms in the Baltic Sea have weakened but lengthened from 2000 to 2014},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4959-4973},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4959-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/4959/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2718,
   author = {Groh, Andreas and Richter, Andreas and Dietrich, Reinhard},
   title = {Recent Baltic Sea Level Changes Induced by Past and Present Ice Masses},
   booktitle = {Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection},
   editor = {Harff, Jan and Furmańczyk, Kazimierz and von Storch, Hans},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {55-68},
   abstract = {The present study examines recent sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea region which are induced by past as well as by present-day ice-mass changes. Still ongoing changes in relative sea level caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) are modelled in a gravitationally self-consistent way using a GIA model. Moreover, sea-level fingerprints due to present-day ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica could also be modelled. The inducing mass-change patterns are inferred from 11 years of satellite gravimetry observations. Long-term changes in relative sea level and crustal deformations are derived from observations at tide gauges and GPS sites. Both results could be used to validate the GIA modelling results and to infer a regional long-term (1901–1990) sea-level estimate. This regional estimate amounts to 1.2±0.2 mm/a and is in agreement with other global estimates.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-49894-2},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_4},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inproceedings{RN2342,
   author = {Groll, N. and Hünicke, Birgit and Weisse, R.},
   title = {Baltic Sea wave conditions under climate change scenarios},
   booktitle = {7th Study Conference on BALTEX},
   pages = {62},
   note = {Review method: no-review
date of event: 2013-06-10 - 2013-06-14},
   url = {http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0026-B5A5-2},
   type = {Conference Proceedings}
}

@article{RN1542,
   author = {Groll, Nikolaus and Grabemann, Iris and Hünicke, Birgit and Meese, Michael},
   title = {Baltic Sea wave conditions under climate change scenarios},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {22},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {1-12},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2913,
   author = {Groß, Daniel and Zander, Annabell and Boethius, Adam and Dreibrodt, Stefan and Grøn, Ole and Hansson, Anton and Jessen, Catherine and Koivisto, Satu and Larsson, Lars and Lübke, Harald and Nilsson, Björn},
   title = {People, lakes and seashores: Studies from the Baltic Sea basin and adjacent areas in the early and Mid-Holocene},
   journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
   volume = {185},
   pages = {27-40},
   abstract = {During the Early and Mid-Holocene significant changes in the ecology and socio-cultural spheres occurred around the Baltic Sea. Because of the underlying climatic changes and thus environmental alterations, the area was the scene for various cultural developments during the period under investigation. In the course of the melting of the glaciers at the end of the last Ice Age, isostatic and eustatic movements caused continual changes to the Baltic Sea basin. Changes in water level, however, affected not only the Early and Mid-Holocene coastlines, but also the whole Baltic Sea drainage system, including large lakes, rivers and watersheds in the hinterland were also dramatically impacted by these ecological changes. Prehistoric people were thus affected by changes in resource availability and reduction or enlargement of their territories, respectively. In order to evaluate the impact of changes in the water and land networks on the environment, resource availability, and human behaviour, and to reconstruct human responses to these changes, we pursue an interdisciplinary approach connecting environmental and archaeological research highlighted through different case studies.},
   keywords = {Archaeology
Baltic sea basin
Holocene
Human-environment interactions
Mesolithic
Ethnoarchaeology
Climate change},
   ISSN = {0277-3791},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.01.021},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117310284},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1539,
   author = {Gräwe, Ulf and Burchard, Hans},
   title = {Storm surges in the Western Baltic Sea: the present and a possible future},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {39},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {165-183},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1185-z},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1540,
   author = {Gräwe, Ulf and Friedland, René and Burchard, Hans},
   title = {The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios},
   journal = {Ocean Dynamics},
   volume = {63},
   number = {8},
   pages = {901-921},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0634-0},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2103,
   author = {Gräwe, Ulf and Klingbeil, Knut and Kelln, Jessica and Dangendorf, Sönke},
   title = {Decomposing Mean Sea Level Rise in a Semi-Enclosed Basin, the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {32},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3089-3108},
   abstract = {We analyzed changes in mean sea level (MSL) for the period 1950–2015 using a regional ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Sensitivity experiments allowed us to separate external from local drivers and to investigate individual forcing agents triggering basin-internal spatial variations. The model reveals a basin-average MSL rise (MSLR) of 2.08 ± 0.49 mm yr−1, a value that is slightly larger than the simultaneous global average of 1.63 ± 0.32 mm yr−1. This MSLR is, however, spatially highly nonuniform with lower than average increases in the southwestern part (1.71 ± 0.51 mm yr−1) and higher than average rates in the northeastern parts (2.34 ± 1.05 mm yr−1). While 75% of the basin-average MSL externally enters the Baltic basin as a mass signal from the adjacent North Sea, intensified westerly winds and a poleward shift of low pressure systems explain the majority of the spatial variations in the rates. Minor contributions stem from local changes in baroclinicity leading to a basin-internal redistribution of water masses. An observed increase in local ocean temperature further adds to the total basinwide MSLR through thermal expansion but has little effect on the spatial pattern. To test the robustness of these results, we further assessed the sensitivity to six different atmospheric surface forcing reanalysis products over their common period from 1980 to 2005. The ensemble runs indicated that there are significant differences between individual ensemble members increasing the total trend uncertainty for the basin average by 0.22 mm yr−1 (95% confidence intervals). Locally the uncertainty varies from 0.05 mm yr−1 in the central part to up to 0.4 mm yr−1 along the coasts.},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0174.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0174.1},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2735,
   author = {Gräwe, Ulf and Naumann, Michael and Mohrholz, Volker and Burchard, Hans},
   title = {Anatomizing one of the largest saltwater inflows into the Baltic Sea in December 2014},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {120},
   number = {11},
   pages = {7676-7697},
   abstract = {Abstract In December 2014, an exceptional inflow event into the Baltic Sea was observed, a so-called Major Baltic Inflow (MBI). Such inflow events are important for the deep water ventilation in the Baltic Sea and typically occur every 3–10 years. Based on first observational data sets, this inflow had been ranked as the third largest since 100 years. With the help of a multinested modeling system, reaching from the North Atlantic (8 km resolution) to the Western Baltic Sea (600 m resolution, which is baroclinic eddy resolving), this event is reproduced in detail. The model gave a slightly lower salt transport of 3.8 Gt, compared to the observational estimate of four Gt. Moreover, by using passive tracers to mark the different inflowing water masses, including an age tracer, the inflowing water masses could be tracked and their paths and timing through the different basins could be reproduced and investigated. The analysis is supported by the recently developed Total Exchange Flow (TEF) to quantify the volume transport in different salinity classes. To account for uncertainties in the modeled velocity and tracer fields, a Monte Carlo Analysis (MCA) is applied to correct possible biases and errors. With the help of the MCA, 95% confidence intervals are computed for the transport estimates. Based on the MCA, the “best guess” of the volume transport is 291.0 ± 13.65 km3 and 3.89 ± 0.18 Gt for the total salt transport.},
   ISSN = {2169-9275},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011269},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JC011269},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1953,
   author = {Gröger, M. and Arneborg, L. and Dieterich, C. and Höglund, A. and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a coupled regional ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {53},
   pages = {5945–5966},
   abstract = {This model study investigates summer hydrographic changes in response to climate projections following the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. We use the high resolution regional coupled ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model RCA4–NEMO to downscale an ensemble of five global climate projections with a main focus on the Baltic Sea and neighboring shelf basins to the west. We find consistently across the ensemble a northward shift in the mean summer position of the westerlies at the end of the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. Associated with this is an anomalous precipitation pattern marked by increased rainfall over northern Europe and dryer conditions over the continental central part. In response to these large-scale atmospheric changes, a strong freshening mainly resulting from a higher net precipitation over the year combined with higher annual mean runoff is registered for the Baltic Sea and adjacent seas. The strongest freshening takes place in the southern Skagerrak region where stronger winds enhance the cyclonic circulation and by this, recirculation of fresher waters from the Baltic Sea strengthens. In the Baltic Sea freshening leads to a reduction in basin averaged salinities between 0.6 and 2.3 g kg−1 throughout the ensemble. Likewise, the sea surface temperature response in the Baltic Sea varies between + 2.5 and + 4.7 K depending on the applied global model scenario. The climate induced changes in atmospheric forcing have further consequences for the large-scale circulation in the Baltic Sea. All ensemble members indicate a strengthening of the zonal, wind driven near surface overturning circulation in the southwestern Baltic Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century whereas the more thermohaline driven overturning at depth is reduced by ~ 25%. In the Baltic Proper, the meridional overturning shows no clear climate change signal. However, three out of five ensemble members indicate at least a northward expansion of the main overturning cell. In the Bothnian Sea, all ensemble members show a significant weakening of the meridional overturning. The entire ensemble consistently indicates a basin-wide intensification of the pycnocline (9–35%) for the Baltic Sea and a shallowing of the pycnocline depth in most regions as well. In the Baltic Sea, which is dominated by mesohaline conditions under the historical period, the changes in salinity at the end of the twenty-first century have turned wide areas to be dominated by oligohaline conditions as a result of climate change. Potential consequences for biogeochemical conditions and implications for biodiversity are discussed.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04908-9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04908-9},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3456,
   author = {Gröger, M. and Dieterich, C. and Dutheil, C. and Meier, H. E. M. and Sein, D. V.},
   title = {Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {1},
   pages = {613-631},
   note = {ESD
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/613/2022/esd-13-613-2022.pdf},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/613/2022/},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3429,
   author = {Gröger, M. and Dieterich, C. and Haapala, J. and Ho-Hagemann, H. T. M. and Hagemann, S. and Jakacki, J. and May, W. and Meier, H. E. M. and Miller, P. A. and Rutgersson, A. and Wu, L.},
   title = {Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {12},
   number = {3},
   pages = {939-973},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/939/2021/},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2985,
   author = {Gröger, M. and Dieterich, C. and Meier, H. E. M.},
   title = {Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {56},
   number = {1},
   pages = {491-514},
   abstract = {The majority of regional climate change assessments for the Euro-CORDEX region is based on high resolution atmosphere models. These models use prescribed lower boundary conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST) from global ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs), that do not respond to changes simulated by the regional atmosphere model, thus lacking an important feedback to the atmosphere. However, research during the past decade indicated that the use of coupled atmosphere–ocean models can lead to significantly altered model solutions compared to standalone atmosphere models for the present day climate imposing some uncertainty on the widely used uncoupled future scenarios. We here present the first multi-model and multi scenario (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) ensemble of future climate change scenarios downscaled with a coupled atmosphere—ocean model in which sea surface temperature and sea ice fields are explicitly simulated by a coupled state-of-the-art high resolution ocean model and communicated to the atmosphere at 3-hourly time steps. Our ensemble generally confirms results of previous uncoupled ensembles over land areas implying that the coupling effect is restricted mainly to the coupled area and the adjacent coastal zone. By contrast, over the North Sea and Baltic Sea small scale processes point to important coupling effects that mediate the response to climate change and that can not be simulated by uncoupled models. Our results therefore impose general uncertainty on the usage of regional climate change data from uncoupled ensembles over marine areas such as for purposes of offshore wind or mussel farming, the planing of marine protected areas, and marine recreation along the coastal zone. It further sets in question the usage of uncoupled scenario data (such as Euro-CORDEX) to force high resolution ocean models. Comparing coupled and uncoupled hindcast simulations reveals that the coupling effect over land is most pronounced during the warm season when prescribed and modelled sea surface temperatures (SST) differ strongest. In addition, a generally weaker wind regime in summer damps the heat dispersion in the atmosphere so that air temperature anomalies can extent further over land compared to winter. Future projections are discussed under consideration of land-sea warming characteristics for selected climate indices as well as mean seasonal climate change. At the end of the century a clear land-sea pattern is seen in all scenarios with stronger warming over land than over open sea areas. On average land areas warm at a rate 1.5 times faster than areas over the open ocean. Over the coupled area, i.e. the North Sea and Baltic Sea tropical nights are impacted strongest and the Baltic Sea turns out to be a hot spot in future climate. This has been unrecognized in previous studies using high resolution atmosphere models with prescribed SSTs from global models which do not represent small scale ocean processes in the Baltic Sea adequately.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05489-8},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1734,
   author = {Gröger, Matthias and Dieterich, Christian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Schimanke, Semjon},
   title = {Thermal air-sea coupling in hindcast simulations for the North Sea and Baltic Sea on the NW European shelf},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {67},
   number = {1},
   pages = {26911},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.26911},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1735,
   author = {Gröger, Matthias and Maier-Reimer, Ernst and Mikolajewicz, Uwe and Moll, Andreas and Sein, Dmitry},
   title = {NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean-shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {10},
   number = {6},
   pages = {3767-3792},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2527,
   author = {Gubelit, Yulia I.},
   title = {Climatic impact on community of filamentous macroalgae in the Neva estuary (eastern Baltic Sea)},
   journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin},
   volume = {91},
   number = {1},
   pages = {166-172},
   abstract = {In presented study the impact of climatic factors and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on macroalgal community was analysed. Also the factors influencing algal community were defined with help of Principal Component and Classification analysis. It was found that climatic impact may depend on habitat features and that on different sites biomass of macroalgae correlated with different weather factors. Wind and surf may affect biomass of macroalgae adversely on some sites and at the same time on other sites they may accumulate biomass, transferring it is from adjacent areas. High direct correlation with temperature was found on sites which were protected from surf and had no stagnant events. Seasonal biomass inversely significantly correlated with average seasonal wind speed and annual NAO-index.},
   keywords = {Climate impact
Green tides
Baltic Sea
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)},
   ISSN = {0025-326X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.12.009},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X14008108},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2107,
   author = {Gunnarsson, Gunnar and Waldenström, Jonas and Fransson, Thord},
   title = {Direct and indirect effects of winter harshness on the survival of Mallards Anas platyrhynchos in northwest Europe},
   journal = {Ibis},
   volume = {154},
   number = {2},
   pages = {307-317},
   abstract = {To understand population dynamics it is necessary to understand vital rates, which may be affected by a wide range of factors including environmental variables such as weather. Weather conditions can affect birds’ vital rates directly through increased mortality due to impaired conditions, or indirectly via changes in body condition and/or behaviour. Most understanding of direct and indirect effects of weather comes from studies of breeding birds, whereas the situation in non-breeding periods is less clear. Here, we analysed annual survival of non-breeding Mallard Anas platyrhynchos, the most hunted waterfowl species in Europe, and assessed whether survival is related directly to winter harshness and/or indirectly via changes in winter recovery distributions. Recovery data on Mallards, initially marked in southeast Sweden, were analysed with an information-theoretic approach using program mark. Over 10 000 Mallards were marked in two time periods, 1964–1982 and 2002–2008, of which 13.3 and 4.7%, respectively, were later recovered. Mallards had lower annual survival in the early trapping period (0.58–0.63) than in the later period (0.69–0.71), with no clear effects of sex, age or year. Within each study period, winter harshness did not directly correlate with survival. However, milder winters may have contributed indirectly to higher survival in the second period, as winter harshness data were correlated with the distances to recovery positions for females, and also because winter recovery areas have shifted northeast during the past decades, possibly indicating a shortened migratory distance. Migration is costly, and there is therefore a likely linkage between migration behaviour and survival of dabbling ducks, in which direct as well as indirect effects of winter harshness may play a role. Other factors, such as hunting pressure, are also likely to have changed in the past decades, and may also have contributed to improved survival of Mallards in northwest Europe.},
   ISSN = {0019-1019},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1474-919X.2011.01206.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1474-919X.2011.01206.x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inproceedings{RN1738,
   author = {Gustafsson, B G and Mörth, C M},
   title = {Revision of the Maximum Allowable Inputs and Country Allocation Scheme of the Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   type = {Conference Proceedings}
}

@techreport{RN1736,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G},
   title = {A time-dependent coupled-basin model for the {Baltic Sea}},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1671,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G},
   title = {Sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to large perturbations in climate},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {27},
   pages = {237-251},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr027237},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN1737,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G and Medina, Miguel Rodriguez},
   title = {Validation data set compiled from Baltic Environmental Database Version 2., Technical Report No. 2},
   institution = {Baltic Nest Institute},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2425,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G and Savchuk, Oleg P and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Load scenarios for ECOSUPPORT, Technical Report No. 4},
   institution = {Baltic Nest Institute},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1739,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G and Schenk, Frederik and Blenckner, Thorsten and Eilola, Kari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Neumann, Thomas and Ruoho-Airola, Tuija and Savchuk, Oleg P and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Reconstructing the development of Baltic Sea eutrophication 1850-2006},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {534-548},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0318-x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2024,
   author = {Gustafsson, Bo G. and Andersson, Helén C.},
   title = {Modeling the exchange of the Baltic Sea from the meridional atmospheric pressure difference across the North Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {106},
   number = {C9},
   pages = {19731-19744},
   abstract = {The large Baltic Sea estuary has a hampered exchange with the ocean because of the topographical constriction of the transition area. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the deep water renewal and possible climatic dependencies are of primary concern in order to understand past and future changes of the Baltic Sea. In the present paper, century long time series have been used to investigate the interrelations between observed air pressure, sea level, and salinity in period bands relevant to North Sea-Baltic Sea water and salt exchange. Strong linear relations between the north-south air pressure difference across the North Sea and the sea level in the Kattegat were found for oscillations in the 35–200 days period band. In the same period band the surface salinity of the Kattegat covaries with variations of the Baltic sea level because of movement of the horizontal salinity gradient in Kattegat related to filling/emptying of the Baltic. Using the statistical dependencies, a model of the Baltic sea level, and a simple gradient model for the Kattegat salinity, we simulated the occurrences and strengths of large high-saline inflows to the Baltic with the north-south air pressure difference across the North Sea as the only forcing. The water exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic Sea have been calculated from 1902 to 1998. The computed inflow conforms with previous estimates and with observed changes seen in the Baltic Sea deep water. It is suggested that this simple model can be used to analyze the sensitivity of the Baltic Sea to climate change.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jc000593},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2000JC000593},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1897,
   author = {Gustafsson, E. and Deutsch, B. and Gustafsson, B. G. and Humborg, C. and Mörth, C. M.},
   title = {Carbon cycling in the Baltic Sea — The fate of allochthonous organic carbon and its impact on air–sea CO2 exchange},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {129},
   pages = {289-302},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Modelling
Oceanography
Biogeochemistry
Organic carbon
Carbon cycling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.07.005},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796313001577},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3019,
   author = {Gustafsson, Erik and Gustafsson, Bo G.},
   title = {Future acidification of the Baltic Sea – A sensitivity study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {211},
   pages = {103397},
   abstract = {Future acidification of coastal seas will depend not only on the development of atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but also on changes in the catchment areas, exchange with the adjacent ocean, and internal cycling of carbon and nutrients. Here we use a coupled physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea model to quantify the sensitivity of pH to changes both in external forcing and internal processes. The experiments include changes in runoff, supply of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (AT), nutrient loads, exchange between the Baltic and North Seas, and atmospheric pCO2. We furthermore address the potential different future developments of runoff and river loads in boreal and continental catchments, respectively. Changes in atmospheric pCO2 exert the strongest control on future pH according to our calculations. This CO2-induced acidification could be further enhanced in the case of desalination of the Baltic Sea, although increased concentrations of AT in the river runoff due to increased weathering to some extent could counteract acidification. Reduced nutrient loads and productivity would reduce the average annual surface water pH but at the same time slightly increase wintertime surface water pH (the annual pH minimum). The response time of surface water pH to sudden changes in atmospheric pCO2 is approximately one month, whereas response times to changes in e.g. runoff and AT/DIC loads are more related to residence times of water and salt (>30 years). It seems unlikely that the projected future increase in atmospheric pCO2 and associated pH reduction could be fully counteracted by any of the other processes addressed in our experiments.},
   keywords = {Marine carbonate system
Physical-biogeochemical modelling
Sensitivity experiments
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2020.103397},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796320300932},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2108,
   author = {Gustafsson, Erik and Hagens, Mathilde and Sun, Xiaole and Reed, Daniel C. and Humborg, Christoph and Slomp, Caroline P. and Gustafsson, Bo G.},
   title = {Sedimentary alkalinity generation and long-term alkalinity development in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {16},
   number = {2},
   pages = {437-456},
   note = {2020-02-20T13:16:08.190+01:00},
   abstract = {Enhanced release of alkalinity from the seafloor, principally driven by anaerobic degradation of organic matter under low-oxygen conditions and associated secondary redox reactions, can increase the carbon dioxide (CO2) buffering capacity of seawater and therefore oceanic CO2 uptake. The Baltic Sea has undergone severe changes in oxygenation state and total alkalinity (TA) over the past decades. The link between these concurrent changes has not yet been investigated in detail. A recent system-wide TA budget constructed for the past 50 years using BALTSEM, a coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the whole Baltic Sea area, revealed an unknown TA source. Here we use BALTSEM in combination with observational data and one-dimensional reactive transport modelling of sedimentary processes in the Fårö Deep, a deep Baltic Sea basin, to test whether sulfate reduction coupled to iron (Fe) sulfide burial can explain the missing TA source in the Baltic Proper. We calculated that this burial can account for 26% of the missing source in this basin, with the remaining TA possibly originating from unknown river inputs or submarine groundwater discharge. We also show that temporal variability in the input of Fe to the sediments since the 1970s drives changes in sulfur burial in the Fårö Deep, suggesting that Fe availability is the ultimate limiting factor for TA generation under anoxic conditions. The implementation of projected climate change and two nutrient load scenarios for the 21st century in BALTSEM shows that reducing nutrient loads will improve deep water oxygen conditions, but at the expense of lower surface water TA concentrations, CO2 buffering capacities and faster acidification. When these changes additionally lead to a decrease in Fe inputs to the sediment of the deep basins, anaerobic TA generation will be reduced even further, thus exacerbating acidification. This work highlights that Fe dynamics play a key role in the release of TA from sediments where Fe sulfide formation is limited by Fe availability, as exemplified for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, it demonstrates that burial of Fe sulfides should be included in TA budgets of low oxygen basins.},
   keywords = {Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap},
   ISSN = {17264170 (ISSN)
17264189 (EISSN)},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-313},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-164559},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1740,
   author = {Gustafsson, Erik and Omstedt, Anders and Gustafsson, Bo G},
   title = {The air-water CO2 exchange of a coastal sea—A sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO2 in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {120},
   number = {8},
   pages = {5342-5357},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC010832},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2109,
   author = {Gustafsson, Erik and Savchuk, Oleg P. and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel},
   title = {Key processes in the coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeochemistry},
   volume = {134},
   number = {3},
   pages = {301-317},
   abstract = {In this study we examine pools of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the Baltic Sea, both simulated and reconstructed from observations. We further quantify key fluxes in the C, N, and P cycling. Our calculations include pelagic reservoirs as well as the storage in the active sediment layer, which allows a complete coverage of the overall C, N, and P cycling on a system-scale. A striking property of C versus N and P cycling is that while the external supplies of total N and P (TN and TP) are largely balanced by internal removal processes, the total carbon (TC) supply is mainly compensated by a net export out of the system. In other words, external inputs of TN and TP are, in contrast to TC, rather efficiently filtered within the Baltic Sea. Further, there is a net export of TN and TP out of the system, but a net import of dissolved inorganic N and P (DIN and DIP). There is on the contrary a net export of both the organic and inorganic fractions of TC. While the pelagic pools of TC and TP are dominated by inorganic compounds, TN largely consists of organic N because allochthonous organic N is poorly degradable. There are however large basin-wise differences in C, N, and P elemental ratios as well as in inorganic versus organic fractions. These differences reflect both the differing ratios in external loads and differing oxygen conditions determining the redox-dependent fluxes of DIN and DIP.},
   ISSN = {1573-515X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0361-6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0361-6},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1741,
   author = {Gustafsson, Erik and Wällstedt, Teresia and Humborg, Christoph and Mörth, Carl-Magnus and Gustafsson, Bo G},
   title = {External total alkalinity loads versus internal generation: The influence of nonriverine alkalinity sources in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
   volume = {28},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1358-1370},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004888},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1898,
   author = {Gustafsson, Nils and Nyberg, Leif and Omstedt, Anders},
   title = {Coupling of a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model and an Ocean Model for the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
   volume = {126},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2822-2846},
   abstract = {Abstract The coupling between a high-resolution weather forecasting model and an ocean model is investigated. It is demonstrated by several case studies that improvements of short-range weather forecasting in the area of the Baltic Sea require an accurate description of the lower boundary condition over sea. The examples are taken from summer situations without sea ice as well as from winter situations with extreme sea ice conditions. It is shown that the sea state variables used in the model influence the weather forecast both directly on the local scale due to the local impact of surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat and on regional and larger scales. The convective snowbands during winters with cold airmass outbreaks over the open water surfaces of the Baltic Sea are extreme examples of the influence of sea state variables on a regional scale. It is furthermore demonstrated that the sea state conditions may change considerably within forecasting periods up to 48 h. This implies the necessary application of ocean models, two-way interactively coupled to the weather forecasting model. The coupling of an advanced 2.5-dimensional ice–ocean model to the operational Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) weather forecasting model HIRLAM is described. The ice–ocean model includes two-dimensional, horizontally resolved ice and storm surge models and a one-dimensional, vertically resolved ocean model applied to 31 Baltic Sea regions. The coupled model system is applied operationally in a data assimilation system at the SMHI. No data assimilation is applied in the operational ocean component; manual modifications to the sea state variables are introduced a few times every winter season. The application of this operational coupled model data assimilation system to the mesoscale reanalysis for the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) shows that it is necessary to apply data assimilation for the sea state variables in order to avoid drift of the coupled model system toward less realistic model states. A successful application of a simple assimilation of SST observations is presented. The observed SSTs are first subject to a horizontal filter in order to minimize the effects of observational errors and to restrict the influence to a larger horizontal scale. Then the differences between these filtered temperature observations and the model SSTs are used to construct a modified sensible heat flux that is applied as a form of a “nudging” term to the ocean model. It turns out that this “nudging” is successful in avoiding the drift away from realistic sea state conditions. The described atmosphere and ocean data assimilation scheme has been applied in a rerun of the BALTEX mesoscale reanalysis for the cold winter 1986/87. The quality of this reanalysis was assessed through the successful simulation of the convective snowbands in January 1987.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2822:Coahra>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493%281998%29126%3C2822%3ACOAHRA%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN3294,
   author = {Gutow, Lars and Teschke, Katharina and Schmidt, Andreas and Dannheim, Jennifer and Krone, Roland and Gusky, Manuela},
   title = {Rapid increase of benthic structural and functional diversity at the alpha ventus offshore test site},
   booktitle = {Ecological Research at the Offshore Windfarm alpha ventus: Challenges, Results and Perspectives},
   editor = {Federal, Maritime and Hydrographic, Agency and Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear, Safety},
   publisher = {Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden},
   address = {Wiesbaden},
   pages = {67-81},
   abstract = {The ecological importance of benthic organisms, which provide valuable ecosystem goods and services, necessitates careful research into the effects of offshore windfarms on the marine benthos. This chapter summarizes the results from benthos research activities within the StUKplus programme. The results showed considerable effects of the windfarm alpha ventus on the abundance and biomass of the benthic fauna. The major effect of the introduction of numerous wind turbine constructions into the marine environment was the aggregation and production of marine biota on the submersed structures, resulting in a substantial increase of the structural and functional biodiversity of the benthic system.},
   ISBN = {978-3-658-02462-8},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02462-8_9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-02462-8_9},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2443,
   author = {Gálos, Borbála and Hagemann, Stefan and Hänsler, Andreas and Kindermann, Georg and Rechid, Diana and Sieck, Kevin and Teichmann, Claas and Jacob, Daniela},
   title = {Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe},
   journal = {Carbon Balance and Management},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {3},
   abstract = {A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change.},
   ISSN = {1750-0680},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-0680-8-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-0680-8-3},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2829,
   author = {Gårdmark, Anna and Huss, Magnus},
   title = {Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming},
   journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
   volume = {375},
   number = {1814},
   pages = {20190449},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0449},
   url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2019.0449 %X Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2528,
   author = {Gårdmark, Anna and Lindegren, Martin and Neuenfeldt, Stefan and Blenckner, Thorsten and Heikinheimo, Outi and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Niiranen, Susa and Tomczak, Maciej T. and Aro, Eero and Wikström, Anders and Möllmann, Christian},
   title = {Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources},
   journal = {Ecological Applications},
   volume = {23},
   number = {4},
   pages = {742-754},
   abstract = {Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the “biological ensemble modeling approach,” using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the “biological ensemble modeling approach” by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator–prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.},
   ISSN = {1051-0761},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0267.1},
   url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/12-0267.1},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1910,
   author = {Gómez-Navarro, J. J. and Montávez, J. P. and Jerez, S. and Jiménez-Guerrero, P. and Lorente-Plazas, R. and González-Rouco, J. F. and Zorita, E.},
   title = {A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium},
   journal = {Climate of the Past},
   volume = {7},
   number = {2},
   pages = {451-472},
   note = {CP
https://www.clim-past.net/7/451/2011/cp-7-451-2011.pdf},
   ISSN = {1814-9332},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-451-2011},
   url = {https://www.clim-past.net/7/451/2011/},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3304,
   author = {Göke, Cordula and Dahl, Karsten and Mohn, Christian},
   title = {Maritime Spatial Planning supported by systematic site selection: Applying Marxan for offshore wind power in the western Baltic Sea},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {13},
   number = {3},
   pages = {e0194362},
   abstract = {The development of offshore wind energy and other competing interests in sea space are a major incentive for designating marine and coastal areas for specific human activities. Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) considers human activities at sea in a more integrated way by analysing and designating spatial and temporal distributions of human activities based on ecological, economic and social targets. However, specific tools supporting spatial decisions at sea incorporating all relevant sectors are rarely adopted. The decision support tool Marxan is traditionally used for systematic selection and designation of nature protection and conservation areas. In this study, Marxan was applied as a support tool to identify suitable sites for offshore wind power in the pilot area Pomeranian Bight / Arkona Basin in the western Baltic Sea. The software was successfully tested and scenarios were developed that support the sites indicated in existing national plans, but also show options for alternative developments of offshore wind power in the Pomeranian Bight / Arkona Basin area.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194362},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194362},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2448,
   author = {Haapala, Jari J. and Ronkainen, Iina and Schmelzer, Natalija and Sztobryn, Marzenna},
   title = {Recent Change—Sea Ice},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {145-153},
   abstract = {Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea have been systematically monitored for more than 100 years. All sea ice-related parameters display large interannual variability, but a change towards milder ice winters has been observed over the past 100 years: in particular, the annual maximum ice extent has decreased and the length of the ice season has become shorter. There is no correlation between consecutive ice seasons because the thermal memory of the Baltic Sea is only 2–3 months. Interannual variabilityVariabilityin sea ice conditions is principally driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, described by the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition to a tendency towards milder winters, the occurrence of severe ice winters has also decreased considerably over the past 25 years.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_8},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN1545,
   author = {Haapala, Jari and Leppäranta, Matti},
   title = {Simulating the Baltic Sea ice season with a coupled ice-ocean model},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {48},
   number = {5},
   pages = {622-643},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-4-00003.x},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1742,
   author = {Haapala, Jari and Leppäranta, Matti},
   title = {The Baltic Sea ice season in changing climate},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {2},
   number = {1},
   pages = {93-108},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1743,
   author = {Haapala, Jari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Rinne, Juhani},
   title = {Numerical investigations of future ice conditions in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {30},
   number = {4},
   pages = {237-244},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-30.4.237},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2778,
   author = {Haarsma, Reindert J. and Selten, Frank M. and Drijfhout, Sybren S.},
   title = {Decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {10},
   number = {9},
   pages = {094007},
   abstract = {We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2110,
   author = {Haasnoot, M. and Schellekens, J. and Beersma, J. J. and Middelkoop, H. and Kwadijk, J. C. J.},
   title = {Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {10},
   number = {10},
   pages = {105008},
   abstract = {Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105008},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105008},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2711,
   author = {Haavisto, Fiia and Jormalainen, Veijo},
   title = {Seasonality elicits herbivores' escape from trophic control and favors induced resistance in a temperate macroalga},
   journal = {Ecology},
   volume = {95},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3035-3045},
   abstract = {Strong seasonality in temperate marine littoral environments triggers fluctuation in grazing and in trophic cascades. Variation in species interactions arising from seasonality may favor the evolution of induced resistance in macroalgae, but the coupling of induced resistance with temporally varying grazing pressure remains equivocal. Here we present a study where we manipulated the natural densities of herbivores and predatory fish to quantify seasonal variation in herbivory, induction of resistance, and cascading third-trophic-level effects on herbivory in the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus, a foundation species of the rocky littoral in the northern Baltic Sea. Our results demonstrate a vast seasonal variation in grazing triggered by highly synchronized reproduction of the main mesograzer in the area, Idotea balthica. High I. balthica density in autumn resulted in an 88% grazing loss and a strong induction of resistance to further feeding in F. vesiculosus. By the next spring, I. balthica densities had decreased by 95% and the low herbivore density caused minor grazing loss and no induction of resistance in the algae. During the herbivory peak in autumn, both the overall resistance to herbivores and induced resistance varied among F. vesiculosus genotypes. Herbivores escaped from the trophic control of fish in autumn, leading to a herbivory peak, while in spring, fish decreased the low herbivore density even further and had a cascading beneficial effect on the algae. In autumn, the presence of fish predators was connected, however, to fewer algae, showing induced resistance. We emphasize the seasonal dynamics of herbivore populations as an important factor affecting the outcomes of three-trophic interactions by promoting herbivore escapes from top-down control and by generating periods of strong selection for resistance traits in macroalgae in temperate marine littoral environments. Induced resistance may be critical to survival of the algae, and is thus likely to be an adaptation to the strong seasonality of herbivory.},
   ISSN = {0012-9658},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1890/13-2387.1},
   url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/13-2387.1},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3185,
   author = {Hakala, T. and Viitasalo, M. and Rita, H. and Aro, E. and Flinkman, J. and Vuorinen, I.},
   title = {Temporal and spatial variation in the growth rates of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) larvae during summer},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {142},
   number = {1},
   pages = {25-33},
   abstract = {It has been suggested that larval survival determines the year-class strength in most marine fish species. During their growth and development, the ability of the larvae to catch prey and avoid predation will increase. However, the factors affecting short-term changes in the growth of Baltic Sea herring have been little studied in the field. We collected Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) larvae from five different towing areas in the Archipelago Sea (SW Finland) during May and June 1989, right after the main spawning season. Twenty thousand two hundred and ten larvae were analysed and the area-specific growth rate (i.e. increase in standard length) was estimated by tracing the larval cohorts from the length–frequency data. This represents the first Baltic herring study with daily sampling during a long study period. The growth rate was related to environmental factors, such as temperature, number of zooplankters, and wind speed and direction. Large variation in larval growth rate occurred between areas: lowest and highest growth rates were 0.18 and 0.52 mm·day–1. Temperature was an important variable controlling larval-fish growth rate. An increase of one 1°C in average water temperature corresponded to an increase in growth rate of 0.043 mm·day–1. This may have been caused either by a direct temperature effect (changes in metabolic rate) or by the indirect effect of changes in food availability. We also found the densest herring populations in the areas with highest average water temperature. However, temperature and larval growth rate both increased towards the inner archipelago.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-002-0933-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-002-0933-3},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2917,
   author = {Halkka, Antti},
   title = {Changing climate and the Baltic region biota},
   university = {University of Helsinki},
   DOI = {http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-51-6021-8},
   url = {http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-51-6021-8},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN2909,
   author = {Hallett, Chris S. and Hobday, Alistair J. and Tweedley, James R. and Thompson, Peter A. and McMahon, Kathryn and Valesini, Fiona J.},
   title = {Observed and predicted impacts of climate change on the estuaries of south-western Australia, a Mediterranean climate region},
   journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
   volume = {18},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1357-1373},
   abstract = {Regions with a Mediterranean climate are generally predicted to become warmer and drier with climate change. Estuaries in these regions are influenced by a broad range of climate drivers and are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We examine observed and predicted effects of climate change on the estuaries of south-western Australia (SWA), where sustained warming and drying trends have caused dramatic declines in freshwater flows of up to 70% since the 1970s, as a case study of the impacts that might be expected in other Mediterranean regions. Current and projected impacts of climate change in SWA include progressive warming and ‘marinisation’ of estuaries; extended closure of periodically open systems; an increased frequency and severity of hypersaline conditions; enhanced water column stratification and hypoxia; and reduced flushing and greater retention of nutrients. We document the effects of these environmental changes on the habitats, biota and ecology of SWA estuaries, including phytoplankton, macrophytes, invertebrates and fish. For example, decreasing river flows will cause periodically open estuaries across SWA to remain closed for longer periods, inhibiting the extent to which marine taxa can access these systems, thus reducing species diversity, whereas marinisation of permanently open systems will increase species diversity. We discuss the broader relevance of our findings, placing them in a global context and highlighting implications for ecosystem services and human populations. Finally, we consider the adaptation options that could be implemented to reduce the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean climate regions.},
   ISSN = {1436-378X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1264-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1264-8},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3323,
   author = {Hamilton, Jacqueline M. and Maddison, David J. and Tol, Richard S. J.},
   title = {Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study},
   journal = {Global Environmental Change},
   volume = {15},
   number = {3},
   pages = {253-266},
   abstract = {The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes.},
   keywords = {Tourism demand
Climate change
Global model},
   ISSN = {0959-3780},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.009},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000883},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2721,
   author = {Hamlington, Benjamin D. and Gardner, Alex S. and Ivins, Erik and Lenaerts, Jan T. M. and Reager, J. T. and Trossman, David S. and Zaron, Edward D. and Adhikari, Surendra and Arendt, Anthony and Aschwanden, Andy and Beckley, Brian D. and Bekaert, David P. S. and Blewitt, Geoffrey and Caron, Lambert and Chambers, Don P. and Chandanpurkar, Hrishikesh A. and Christianson, Knut and Csatho, Beata and Cullather, Richard I. and DeConto, Robert M. and Fasullo, John T. and Frederikse, Thomas and Freymueller, Jeffrey T. and Gilford, Daniel M. and Girotto, Manuela and Hammond, William C. and Hock, Regine and Holschuh, Nicholas and Kopp, Robert E. and Landerer, Felix and Larour, Eric and Menemenlis, Dimitris and Merrifield, Mark and Mitrovica, Jerry X. and Nerem, R. Steven and Nias, Isabel J. and Nieves, Veronica and Nowicki, Sophie and Pangaluru, Kishore and Piecuch, Christopher G. and Ray, Richard D. and Rounce, David R. and Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne and Seroussi, Hélène and Shirzaei, Manoochehr and Sweet, William V. and Velicogna, Isabella and Vinogradova, Nadya and Wahl, Thomas and Wiese, David N. and Willis, Michael J.},
   title = {Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future},
   journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
   volume = {58},
   number = {3},
   pages = {e2019RG000672},
   abstract = {Abstract Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea-level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea-level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea-level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea-level observation network—particularly as related to satellite observations—in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea-level change.},
   ISSN = {8755-1209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000672},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000672},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2603,
   author = {Hammarklint, Thomas},
   title = {Swedish Sea Level Series - A Climate Indicator},
   institution = {Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)},
   DOI = {https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.8963!/Swedish_Sea_Level_Series_-_A_Climate_Indicator.pdf},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2111,
   author = {Hammer, Karoline and Schneider, Bernd and Kuliński, Karol and Schulz-Bull, Detlef E.},
   title = {Acid-base properties of Baltic Sea dissolved organic matter},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {173},
   pages = {114-121},
   abstract = {Calculations related to the marine CO2 system that are based on alkalinity data may be strongly biased if the contributions of organic compounds are ignored. In coastal seas, concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) are frequently high and alkalinity from inorganic compounds is low. In this study, based on measurements of total alkalinity, total CO2, and pH, we determined the organic alkalinity, Aorg, in water from the central Baltic Sea. The maximum Aorg measured in the surface mixed layer during the spring bloom was > 50 μmol/kg-SW but the Aorg decreased with depth and approached zero below the permanent halocline. This behavior could be attributed to the decreased pH of deeper water layers. The data were used to calculate the bulk dissociation constant, KDOM, for marine DOM and the fraction f of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) that acts as a carrier for acid-base functional groups. The p KDOM (7.27) agreed well with the value (7.34) previously estimated in a preliminary study of organic alkalinity in the Baltic Sea. The fraction of carbon atoms carrying acid-base groups was 17% and was somewhat higher than previously reported (12%). Spike experiments performed using artificial seawater and three different humic/fulvic substances tested whether the acid-base properties of these substances explain the results of our field study. Specifically, Aorg was determined at different concentrations (DOC) of the added humic/fulvic substances. The relationship between Aorg and the DOC concentrations indicated that humic/fulvic substances are more acidic (p KDOM < 6.5) than the bulk DOC natural occurring in the Baltic Sea.},
   keywords = {Humic acids
Fulvic acids
Alkalinity
Marine acid base system
Coastal waters
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2017.04.007},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092479631630197X},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2896,
   author = {Hammond, PS and Bearzi, G and Bjørge, A and Forney, KA and Karczmarski, L and Kasuya, T and Perrin, WF and Scott, MD and Wang, JY and Wells, RS and Wilson, B},
   title = {Phocoena phocoena  (Baltic Sea subpopulation), errata version published in 2016},
   journal = {The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species: e. T17031A98831650},
   DOI = {https://dx.doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.UK.2008.RLTS.T17031A6739565.en},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2683,
   author = {Hannerz, Fredrik and Destouni, Georgia},
   title = {Spatial Characterization of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and Its Unmonitored Catchments},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {35},
   number = {5},
   pages = {214-219, 6},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/05-A-022R.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1579/05-A-022R.1},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1899,
   author = {Hansen, J. and Ruedy, R. and Sato, M. and Lo, K.},
   title = {GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE},
   journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
   volume = {48},
   number = {4},
   abstract = {We update the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change, compare alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Satellite-observed night lights are used to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and periurban stations for nonclimatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. Because the GISS analysis combines available sea surface temperature records with meteorological station measurements, we test alternative choices for the ocean data, showing that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions where observations are limited. We use simple 12 month (and n × 12) running means to improve the information content in our temperature graphs. Contrary to a popular misconception, the rate of warming has not declined. Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior 2 decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global 12 month running mean temperature for the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2010RG000345},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1546,
   author = {Hansson, Daniel and Eriksson, Christin and Omstedt, Anders and Chen, Deliang},
   title = {Reconstruction of river runoff to the Baltic Sea, AD 1500–1995},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {31},
   number = {5},
   pages = {696-703},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2097},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1871,
   author = {Hansson, Daniel and Gustafsson, Erik},
   title = {Salinity and hypoxia in the Baltic Sea since AD 1500},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {116},
   number = {C3},
   ISSN = {2156-2202},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006676},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1744,
   author = {Hansson, Daniel and Omstedt, Anders},
   title = {Modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate on centennial time scale: temperature and sea ice},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {30},
   number = {7-8},
   pages = {763-778},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0321-2},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3381,
   author = {Hansson, Martin and Andersson, Lars},
   title = {Oxygen Survey in the Baltic Sea 2015 - Extent of Anoxia and Hypoxia, 1960-2015 - The major inflow in December 2014},
   institution = {SMHI},
   type = {Oceanografi Nr. 53},
   url = {https://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.115315!/Oxygen_timeseries_1960_2015.pdf},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3215,
   author = {Hansson, Sture and Bergström, Ulf and Bonsdorff, Erik and Härkönen, Tero and Jepsen, Niels and Kautsky, Lena and Lundström, Karl and Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar and Ovegård, Maria and Salmi, Juhani and Sendek, Dmitry and Vetemaa, Markus},
   title = {Competition for the fish – fish extraction from the Baltic Sea by humans, aquatic mammals, and birds},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {75},
   number = {3},
   pages = {999-1008},
   abstract = {Seals and fish-eating birds have increased in the Baltic Sea and there is concern that they compete with fisheries. Using data from around year 2010, we compare consumption of different fish species by seals and birds to the catch in the commercial and recreational fishery. When applicable this is done at the geographical resolution of ICES subdivisions. Predation by birds and mammals likely has limited impact on the populations of the commercially most important species (herring, sprat, and cod). In the central and southern Baltic, seals and birds consume about as much flatfish as is caught by the fishery and competition is possible. Birds and seals consume 2-3 times as much coastal fish as is caught in the fishery. Many of these species are important to the fishery (e.g. perch and whitefish) and competition between wildlife and the fishery is likely, at least locally. Estimated wildlife consumption of pike, sea trout and pikeperch varies among ICES subdivisions and the degree of competition for these species may differ among areas. Competition between wildlife and fisheries need to be addressed in basic ecosystem research, management and conservation. This requires improved quantitative data on wildlife diets, abundances and fish production.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx207},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx207},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1547,
   author = {Hansson, Sture and Dippner, Joachim W and Larsson, Ulf},
   title = {Climate effects on zooplankton biomasses in a coastal Baltic Sea area.},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {15},
   pages = {370-374},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2449,
   author = {Hansson, Sture and Rudstam, Lars G},
   title = {Eutrophication and Baltic fish communities},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {19},
   number = {3},
   pages = {123-125},
   ISSN = {0044-7447},
   year = {1990},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2377,
   author = {Harding, K. C. and Fujiwara, M. and Axberg, Y. and Härkönen, T.},
   title = {Mass-dependent energetics and survival in Harbour Seal pups},
   journal = {Functional Ecology},
   volume = {19},
   number = {1},
   pages = {129-135},
   abstract = {Summary 1 Winter survival rate in Harbour Seal pups is significantly correlated with the autumn body mass of pups. Multi-type mark–recapture statistics were applied to individual re-sighting histories of branded seals, and survival probability was estimated with weight as a covariate. The probability of surviving to an age of 1 year is only 0·63 for the smallest pups at 17 kg, whereas pups at 32 kg have a survival probability of 0·96. 2 An energetic model for juvenile Harbour Seals reveals how metabolic rate is related to body mass, skin surface area, blubber thickness and water temperature. There is an increasing thermal stress with decreasing body size of pups. Low winter water temperatures induce a negative energy balance in small pups, which is a probable cause of the observed mass-dependent survival. 3 This study explicitly links a physical property of the environment, sea-water temperature, to energetics and life history. The approach opens possibilities for studying aspects of life-history evolution, such as optimal weaning weight and pupping time, in marine mammals.},
   ISSN = {0269-8463},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0269-8463.2005.00945.x},
   url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0269-8463.2005.00945.x},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2112,
   author = {Harding, Karin C. and Härkönen, Tero and Helander, Björn and Karlsson, Olle},
   title = {Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk},
   journal = {NAMMCO Scientific Publications},
   volume = {6},
   pages = {33-56},
   abstract = {The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.7557/3.2720},
   url = {https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/NAMMCOSP/article/view/2720},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2451,
   author = {Harff, Jan and Deng, Junjie and Dudzińska-Nowak, Joanna and Fröhle, Peter and Groh, Andreas and Hünicke, Birgit and Soomere, Tarmo and Zhang, Wenyan},
   title = {What Determines the Change of Coastlines in the Baltic Sea?},
   booktitle = {Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection},
   editor = {Harff, Jan and Furmańczyk, Kazimierz and von Storch, Hans},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {15-35},
   abstract = {The change of coastline positions of the Baltic Sea is mainly determined by both the eustatic sea-level change and the glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA). For changes on the Holocene time scale, the relative sea-level change can be reconstructed from paleo-coastline positions and correspondingly dated sediments and organic remains. On the decadal scale, tide gauge data are available. Both data sets display the relative value of sea-level change resulting from the superposition of climatically and meteorologically induced factors, vertical crustal displacement, and related gravitational forces. The isolation of the GIA signal from the compound relative sea-level change data plays a critical role for future projections of coastline changes within the frame of coastal zone management. To separate different components of sea-level data sets, statistical methods for the exploration of empirical water level, meteorological, and GPS data are combined with analytical methods to solve the sea-level equation. In the result, the pattern of vertical crustal movement can be displayed as maps covering the uplifting Fennoscandian Shield and its subsiding belt. Whereas along the uplifting coasts morphodynamic processes play a subordinated role, in the subsiding Southeast and South, Quaternary sediments are permanently exposed to coastal erosion, sediment transport, and re-deposition. This mainly wave-driven sediment dynamics together with aeolian processes depend on meteorological forcing of the in general west-east directed air-flow from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia. Regional coastal morphogenesis can generally be described by alongshore sediment transport pattern deduced from the integration of subregional to local models of transport capacities. For future projection, coastlines and the morphology of the adjacent zones have to be regarded a function of its position related to the vertical displacement of the Earth's crust, the regional climatic and meteorological conditions, and the geological setting. Results of climate modelling, the Earth’s visco-elastic response to the deglaciation, geological data and regional sediment transport capacities have to be interpreted comprehensively.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-49894-2},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inbook{RN1549,
   author = {Harff, Jan and Endler, Rudolf and Emelyanov, Emel and Kotov, Sergey and Leipe, Thomas and Moros, Matthias and Olea, Ricardo and Tomczak, Michal and Witkowski, Andrzej},
   title = {Late Quaternary climate variations reflected in Baltic Sea sediments},
   booktitle = {The Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer},
   pages = {99-132},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17220-5_5},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@book{RN1550,
   author = {Harff, Jan and Furmańczyk, Kazimierz and Von Storch, Hans},
   title = {Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection},
   publisher = {Springer},
   address = {Cham},
   volume = {19},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN2452,
   author = {Harff, Jan and Lemke, Wolfram and Lampe, Reinhard and Luth, F and Lubke, H and Meyer, Michael and Tauber, Franz and Schmolcke, U},
   title = {The Baltic Sea Coast - A model of interrelations among geosphere, climate, and anthroposphere},
   publisher = {SPECIAL PAPERS-GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA},
   volume = {426},
   pages = {133-142},
   ISBN = {0072-1077},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Electronic Book Section}
}

@article{RN2114,
   author = {Hari, Pertti and Aakala, Tuomas and Hilasvuori, Emmi and Häkkinen, Risto and Korhola, Atte and Korpela, Mikko and Linkosalo, Tapio and Mäkinen, Harri and Nikinmaa, Eero and Nöjd, Pekka and Seppä, Heikki and Sulkava, Mika and Terhivuo, Juhani and Tuomenvirta, Heikki and Weckström, Jan and Hollmén, Jaakko},
   title = {Reliability of temperature signal in various climate indicators from northern Europe},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {12},
   number = {6},
   pages = {e0180042},
   abstract = {We collected relevant observational and measured annual-resolution time series dealing with climate in northern Europe, focusing in Finland. We analysed these series for the reliability of their temperature signal at annual and seasonal resolutions. Importantly, we analysed all of the indicators within the same statistical framework, which allows for their meaningful comparison. In this framework, we employed a cross-validation procedure designed to reduce the adverse effects of estimation bias that may inflate the reliability of various temperature indicators, especially when several indicators are used in a multiple regression model. In our data sets, timing of phenological observations and ice break-up were connected with spring, tree ring characteristics (width, density, carbon isotopic composition) with summer and ice formation with autumn temperatures. Baltic Sea ice extent and the duration of ice cover in different watercourses were good indicators of winter temperatures. Using combinations of various temperature indicator series resulted in reliable temperature signals for each of the four seasons, as well as a reliable annual temperature signal. The results hence demonstrated that we can obtain reliable temperature information over different seasons, using a careful selection of indicators, combining the results with regression analysis, and by determining the reliability of the obtained indicator.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180042},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180042},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2351,
   author = {Hario, M},
   title = {Mink predation on black guillemots at Söderskär in 1994–1999},
   journal = {Suomen Riista},
   volume = {48},
   pages = {18-26},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2662,
   author = {Hartfield, Gail and Blunden, Jessica and Arndt, Derek S.},
   title = {State of the Climate in 2017},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {99},
   number = {8},
   pages = {Si-S310},
   ISSN = {0003-0007},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/8/2018bamsstateoftheclimate.1.xml},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3152,
   author = {Harvey, B. J. and Cook, P. and Shaffrey, L. C. and Schiemann, R.},
   title = {The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {125},
   number = {23},
   pages = {e2020JD032701},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701},
   abstract = {Abstract The representation of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) storm tracks and jet streams and their response to climate change have been evaluated in climate model simulations from Phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, respectively). The spatial patterns of the multimodel biases in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 are similar; however, the magnitudes of the biases in the CMIP6 models are substantially lower. For instance, the multimodel mean RMSE of the North Atlantic storm track for the CMIP6 models (as measured by time-filtered sea-level pressure variance) is over 50% smaller than that of the CMIP3 models in both winter and summer, and over 40% smaller for the North Pacific. The magnitude of the jet stream biases is also reduced in CMIP6, but by a lesser extent. Despite this improved representation of the current climate, the spatial patterns of the climate change response of the NH storm tracks and jet streams remain similar in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. The SSP2-4.5 scenario responses in the CMIP6 models are substantially larger than in the RCP4.5 CMIP5 models, which is consistent with the larger climate sensitivities of the CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5.},
   keywords = {climate change
storm tracks
jet streams
CMIP6
climate models},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2959,
   author = {Harvey, B. J. and Shaffrey, L. C. and Woollings, T. J. and Zappa, G. and Hodges, K. I.},
   title = {How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {18},
   abstract = {Projected changes in the extra-tropical wintertime storm tracks are investigated using the multi-model ensembles from both the third and fifth phases of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The aim is to characterize the magnitude of the storm track responses relative to their present-day year-to-year variability. For the experiments considered, the ‘middle-of-the-road’ scenarios in each CMIP, there are regions of the Northern Hemisphere where the responses of up to 40% of the models exceed half of the inter-annual variability, and for the Southern Hemisphere there are regions where up to 60% of the model responses exceed half of the inter-annual variability.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052873},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012GL052873},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3437,
   author = {Hattich, Giannina S. I. and Listmann, Luisa and Govaert, Lynn and Pansch, Christian and Reusch, Thorsten B. H. and Matthiessen, Birte},
   title = {Experimentally decomposing phytoplankton community change into ecological and evolutionary contributions},
   journal = {Functional Ecology},
   volume = {36},
   number = {1},
   pages = {120-132},
   abstract = {Abstract Shifts in microbial communities and their functioning in response to environmental change result from contemporary interspecific and intraspecific diversity changes. Interspecific changes are driven by ecological shifts in species composition, while intraspecific changes are here assumed to be dominated by evolutionary shifts in genotype frequency. Quantifying the relative contributions of interspecific and intraspecific diversity shifts to community change thus addresses the essential, yet understudied question as to how important ecological and evolutionary contributions are to total community changes. This debate is to date practically constrained by (a) a lack of studies integrating across organizational levels and (b) a mismatch between data requirements of existing partitioning metrics and the feasibility to collect such data, especially in microscopic organisms like phytoplankton. We experimentally assessed the relative ecological and evolutionary contributions to total phytoplankton community changes using a new design and validated its functionality by comparisons to established partitioning metrics. We used a community of coexisting Emiliania huxleyi and Chaetoceros affinis with initially nine genotypes each. First, we exposed the community to elevated CO2 concentration for 80 days (~50 generations) to induce interspecific and intraspecific diversity changes and a total abundance change. Second, we independently manipulated the induced interspecific and intraspecific diversity changes in an assay to quantify the corresponding ecological and evolutionary contributions to the total change. Third, we applied existing partitioning metrics to our experimental data and compared the outcomes. Total phytoplankton abundance declined to one-fifth in the high CO2 exposed community compared to ambient conditions. Consistently across all applied partitioning metrics, the abundance decline could predominantly be explained by ecological shifts and to a low extent by evolutionary changes. We discuss potential consequences of the observed community changes on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, we explain that the low evolutionary contributions likely resulted of intraspecific diversity changes that occurred irrespectively of CO2. We discuss how the assay could be upscaled to more realistic settings, including more species and drivers. Overall, the presented calculations of eco-evolutionary contributions to phytoplankton community changes constitute another important step towards understanding future phytoplankton shifts, and eco-evolutionary dynamics in general. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.},
   ISSN = {0269-8463},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13923},
   url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2435.13923},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2951,
   author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Peters, Glen P.},
   title = {Emissions - the 'business as usual' story is misleading},
   journal = {Nature},
   volume = {577},
   number = {7792},
   pages = {618-620},
   ISSN = {0028-0836},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2119,
   author = {Havenhand, Jonathan N.},
   title = {How will Ocean Acidification Affect Baltic Sea Ecosystems? An Assessment of Plausible Impacts on Key Functional Groups},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {637-644},
   abstract = {Increasing partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 is causing ocean pH to fall—a process known as ‘ocean acidification’. Scenario modeling suggests that ocean acidification in the Baltic Sea may cause a ≤3 times increase in acidity (reduction of 0.2–0.4 pH units) by the year 2100. The responses of most Baltic Sea organisms to ocean acidification are poorly understood. Available data suggest that most species and ecologically important groups in the Baltic Sea food web (phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrozoobenthos, cod and sprat) will be robust to the expected changes in pH. These conclusions come from (mostly) single-species and single-factor studies. Determining the emergent effects of ocean acidification on the ecosystem from such studies is problematic, yet very few studies have used multiple stressors and/or multiple trophic levels. There is an urgent need for more data from Baltic Sea populations, particularly from environmentally diverse regions and from controlled mesocosm experiments. In the absence of such information it is difficult to envision the likely effects of future ocean acidification on Baltic Sea species and ecosystems.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0326-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0326-x},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1974,
   author = {Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.},
   title = {Time of emergence of climate signals},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   number = {1},
   abstract = {The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl050087},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011GL050087},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1745,
   author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
   title = {The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {90},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1095-1108},
   abstract = {Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models, we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare (a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty and (b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1746,
   author = {Hazeleger, W and Wang, X and Severijns, C and \cStef\uanescu, S and Bintanja, R and Sterl, A and Wyser, Klaus and Semmler, T and Yang, S and den Hurk, B and others},
   title = {EC-Earth V2. 2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {39},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2611-2629},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3228,
   author = {Hazen, Elliott L and Abrahms, Briana and Brodie, Stephanie and Carroll, Gemma and Jacox, Michael G and Savoca, Matthew S and Scales, Kylie L and Sydeman, William J and Bograd, Steven J},
   title = {Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels},
   journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
   volume = {17},
   number = {10},
   pages = {565-574},
   abstract = {The rapid pace of environmental change in the Anthropocene necessitates the development of a new suite of tools for measuring ecosystem dynamics. Sentinel species can provide insight into ecosystem function, identify hidden risks to human health, and predict future change. As sentinels, marine apex (top) predators offer a unique perspective into ocean processes, given that they can move across ocean basins and amplify trophic information across multiple spatiotemporal scales. Because use of the terms “ecosystem sentinel” and “climate sentinel” has proliferated in the scientific literature, there is a need to identify the properties that make marine predators effective sentinels. We provide a clear definition of the term “sentinel”, review the attributes of species identified as sentinels, and describe how a suite of such sentinels could strengthen our understanding and management of marine ecosystems. We contend that the use of marine predators as ecosystem sentinels will enable rapid response and adaptation to ecosystem variability and change.},
   ISSN = {1540-9295},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2125},
   url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.2125},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2120,
   author = {Heavens, Nicholas G and Ward, Daniel S and Natalie, MM  },
   title = {Studying and projecting climate change with earth system models},
   journal = {Nature Education Knowledge},
   volume = {4},
   number = {5},
   pages = {4},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2121,
   author = {Hedegaard, G. B. and Christensen, J. H. and Brandt, J.},
   title = {The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {7},
   pages = {3569-3585},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3569-2013},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/3569/2013/},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3034,
   author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Crowley, Thomas J. and Baum, Steven K. and Kim, Kwang-Yul and Hyde, William T.},
   title = {Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {30},
   number = {5},
   abstract = {We apply a multiple regression method to estimate the response to anthropogenic and natural climate forcings simultaneously from a number of paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric average temperature. These long records (600 to 1000 years) provide a unique opportunity to distinguish between different external influences on climate. The response to volcanic forcing is reliably detected in all reconstructions, and the simulated temperature response to volcanic eruptions compares favorably with observations. The response to solar forcing is detected in Hemispheric mean data only over some periods in some records, and appears weak. Although most records can be used only to the middle of the 20th century, the temperature response to CO2 can be detected by this time in most records.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016635},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2002GL016635},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3438,
   author = {Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Crowley, Thomas J. and Baum, Steven K. and Kim, Kwang-Yul and Hyde, William T.},
   title = {Detection of volcanic, solar and greenhouse gas signals in paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric temperature},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {30},
   number = {5},
   abstract = {We apply a multiple regression method to estimate the response to anthropogenic and natural climate forcings simultaneously from a number of paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric average temperature. These long records (600 to 1000 years) provide a unique opportunity to distinguish between different external influences on climate. The response to volcanic forcing is reliably detected in all reconstructions, and the simulated temperature response to volcanic eruptions compares favorably with observations. The response to solar forcing is detected in Hemispheric mean data only over some periods in some records, and appears weak. Although most records can be used only to the middle of the 20th century, the temperature response to CO2 can be detected by this time in most records.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016635},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2002GL016635},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3199,
   author = {Heikinheimo, Outi and Pekcan-Hekim, Zeynep and Raitaniemi, Jari},
   title = {Spawning stock–recruitment relationship in pikeperch Sander lucioperca (L.) in the Baltic Sea, with temperature as an environmental effect},
   journal = {Fisheries Research},
   volume = {155},
   pages = {1-9},
   abstract = {The pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) is an important target species for commercial and recreational fisheries in the Archipelago Sea, off the southwestern coast of Finland. Wide fluctuations in the year-class strength of pikeperch are linked to summer temperatures, but the role of the biomass of the spawning stock has not previously been examined. In this study, a stock–recruitment relationship with temperature as an environmental variable was fitted to stock assessment data based on a long time series of catch statistics and commercial catch samples. The mean water temperature in July–August was the most important factor determining the year class strength. The results indicate that there is also a density-dependent effect: the number of recruits produced per unit of spawning stock biomass decreases with a growing spawning stock. The coefficient of determination of the stock–recruitment model was close to 0.8. The stock–recruitment relationship is important for predicting the future year-class strength of pikeperch under different scenarios such as climate change, and for modeling the effects of fishing or fisheries management.},
   keywords = {Stock assessment
Population dynamics
Stock–recruitment relationship
Temperature
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0165-7836},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2014.02.015},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783614000551},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3314,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM Map and Data Service},
   number = {29.09.2020},
   url = {https://maps.helcom.fi/website/mapservice/},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@techreport{RN3290,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {RECOMMENDATION 16/3 - HELSINKI COMMISSION},
   type = {Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, Annex 6, 16th Meeting, Helsinki, Finland, 14–17 March 1995.},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Rec-16-3.pdf},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2607,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Red List of marine and coastal biotopes and biotopes complexes of the Baltic Sea, Belt Sea and Kattegat},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 75},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BSEP75.pdf},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2610,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area - HELCOM Thematic Assessment in 2007},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 111},
   DOI = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/BSEP111.pdf},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN1747,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   type = {HELCOM Ministerial Meeting 2007},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/documents/BSAP_Final.pdf},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2609,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM lists of threatened and/or declining species and biotopes/habitats in the Baltic Sea area},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 113},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/BSEP113.pdf},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2608,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM Red list of threatened and declining species of lampreys and fishes  of the Baltic Sea},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 109},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP109.pdf},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN1748,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Towards a Baltic Sea unaffected by eutrophication - HELCOM Overview 2007},
   type = {HELCOM Ministerial Meeting},
   url = {http://archive.iwlearn.net/helcom.fi/stc/files/Krakow2007/Eutrophication_MM2007.pdf},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2611,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Biodiversity in the Baltic Sea - An integrated thematic assessment on biodiversity and nature conservation in the Baltic Sea},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 116B},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP116B.pdf},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2612,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Ecosystem Health of the Baltic Sea - HELCOM Initial Holistic Assessment},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 122},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP122-1.pdf},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2613,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea - An integrated thematic assessment of hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 120B},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/BSEP120B.pdf},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2615,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Towards an ecologically coherent network of well-managed Marine Protected Areas – Implementation report on the status and ecological coherence of the HELCOM BSPA network},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 124B},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP124B.pdf},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2614,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Towards an ecologically coherent network of well-managed Marine Protected Areas – Implementation report on the status and ecological coherence of the HELCOM BSPA network - Executive Summary},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 124A},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/BSEP124A.pdf},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2616,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Salmon and Sea Trout Populations and Rivers in the Baltic Sea - HELCOM assessment of salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) populations and habitats in rivers flowing to the Baltic Sea.},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 126A},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/BSEP126A.pdf},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2617,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Checklist of Baltic Sea Macro-species},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 130},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP130-1.pdf},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Report}
}

@misc{RN3259,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM Baltic Sea Environment Fact Sheets},
   number = {19.07.2021},
   url = {http://www.helcom.fi/baltic-sea-trends/environment-fact-sheets/},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@techreport{RN2619,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Approaches and methods for eutrophication target settingin the Baltic Sea region},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 133},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/documents/Eutorophication-targets_BSEP133.pdf},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2678,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Area - HELCOM Thematic Assessment in 2013},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 137},
   DOI = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/BSEP137.pdf},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN1749,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM Copenhagen Ministerial Declaration - Taking Further Action to Implement the Baltic Sea Action Plan - Reaching Good Environmental Statusfor a healthyBaltic Sea},
   type = {HELCOM Ministrial Meeting},
   DOI = {https://helcom.fi/media/documents/2013-Copenhagen-Ministerial-Declaration-w-cover-1.pdf},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN1552,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Summary report on the development of revised Maximum Allowable Inputs (MAI) and updated Country Allocated Reduction Targets (CART) of the Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   type = {HELCOM Ministrial Meeting},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/documents/Summary-report-on-MAI-CART-1.pdf},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3237,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {BALSAM  PROJECT  – WORK  PACKAGE  4:  Testing  Monitoring  Methods  for  Non-Indigenous Species in Ports},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/Testing-monitoring-methods-for-NIS-in-Baltic-ports.pdf},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN1751,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Updated Fifth Baltic Sea Pollution Load Compilation (PLC-5.5)},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 145},
   DOI = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP145_Lowres-1.pdf},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3274,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Ecological coherence assessment of the Marine Protected Area network in the Baltic},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 148},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP148.pdf},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3325,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Recreational fisheries in the Baltic Sea and availability of data},
   type = {HELCOM FISH-PRO II 4-2017},
   url = {https://portal.helcom.fi/meetings/FISH-PRO%20II%204-2017-349/MeetingDocuments/4-1%20Recreational%20fisheries%20in%20the%20Baltic%20Sea%20and%20availability%20of%20data.pdf},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3023,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {HELCOM thematic assessment of eutrophication 2011-2016.},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 156},
   DOI = {http://stateofthebalticsea.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BSEP156-Eutrophication.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3272,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan 2018 - Three years left to reach good environmental status. Background document to the 2018 HELCOM Ministerial Meeting},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Implementation-of-the-BSAP-2018.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3022,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Input of nutrients by the seven biggest rivers in the Baltic Sea region},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 161},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/BSEP163.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2606,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Inputs of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) to the sub-basins (2016)},
   type = {HELCOM core indicator report},
   url = {https://portal.helcom.fi/meetings/PRESSURE%209-2018-548/MeetingDocuments/6-13%20Draft%20Core%20Indicator%20-%20Inputs%20of%20nutrients%20(nitrogen%20and%20phosphorus)%20to%20the%20sub-basins_2016.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2605,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Sources and pathways of nutrients to the Baltic Sea},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 153},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/BSEP153.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN2416,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {State of the Baltic Sea - Second HELCOM holistic assessment 2011-2016},
   type = {Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings No. 155},
   url = {http://stateofthebalticsea.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/HELCOM_State-of-the-Baltic-Sea_Second-HELCOM-holistic-assessment-2011-2016.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@techreport{RN3315,
   author = {HELCOM},
   title = {Shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea 2018},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/media/publications/Ship-accidents-in-the-Baltic-Sea-2018.pdf},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@misc{RN2618,
   author = {HELCOM Response, .},
   title = {Illegal discharges of oil in the Baltic Sea during 2008},
   number = {09.12.2020},
   url = {http://archive.iwlearn.net/helcom.fi/environment2/ifs/ifs2009/en_GB/illegaldischarges/index.html},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN3310,
   author = {Helenius, Laura K. and Leskinen, Elina and Lehtonen, Hannu and Nurminen, Leena},
   title = {Spatial patterns of littoral zooplankton assemblages along a salinity gradient in a brackish sea: A functional diversity perspective},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {198},
   pages = {400-412},
   abstract = {The distribution patterns and diversity of littoral zooplankton are both key baseline information for understanding the functioning of coastal ecosystems, and for identifying the mechanisms by which the impacts of recently increased eutrophication are transferred through littoral food webs. In this study, zooplankton community structure and diversity along a shallow coastal area of the northern Baltic Sea were determined in terms of horizontal environmental gradients. Spatial heterogeneity of the zooplankton community was examined along the gradient. Altogether 31 sites in shallow sandy bays on the coast of southwest Finland were sampled in the summer periods of 2009 and 2010 for zooplankton and environmental variables (surface water temperature, salinity, turbidity, wave exposure, macrophyte coverage, chlorophyll a and nutrients). Zooplankton diversity was measured as both taxonomic as well as functional diversity, using trait-based classification of planktonic crustaceans. Salinity, and to a lesser extent turbidity and temperature, were found to be the main predictors of the spatial patterns and functional diversity of the zooplankton community. Occurrence of cyclopoid copepods, as well as abundances of the calanoid copepod genus Acartia and the rotifer genus Keratella were found to be key factors in differentiating sites along the gradient. As far as we know, this is the first extensive study of functional diversity in Baltic Sea coastal zooplankton communities.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Functional diversity
Littoral zone
Salinity gradient
Biodiversity
Zooplankton},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.031},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416302864},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2122,
   author = {Helle, Eero},
   title = {Reproduction, size and structure of the Baltic ringed seal population of the Bothnian Bay.},
   year = {1980},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN3244,
   author = {Hellmann, Jessica J. and Byers, James E. and Bierwagen, Britta G. and Dukes, Jeffrey S.},
   title = {Five Potential Consequences of Climate Change for Invasive Species},
   journal = {Conservation Biology},
   volume = {22},
   number = {3},
   pages = {534-543},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x},
   abstract = {Abstract:? Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the ?invasion pathway? to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.},
   keywords = {climate change
invasion pathway
invasive species
invasive-species management
cambio climático
especies invasoras
manejo de especies invasoras
vía de invasión},
   ISSN = {0888-8892},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2123,
   author = {Hendriks, Carlijn and Forsell, Nicklas and Kiesewetter, Gregor and Schaap, Martijn and Schöpp, Wolfgang},
   title = {Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios},
   journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
   volume = {144},
   pages = {208-219},
   abstract = {Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2–5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global action to reduce air pollutant emissions is needed to make sure that ozone damage in Europe decreases towards the middle of this century.},
   keywords = {Ozone
Air quality
Energy scenario
Land use change
GAINS
GLOBIOM
LOTOS-EUROS
CTM},
   ISSN = {1352-2310},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.08.026},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231016306197},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3375,
   author = {Hense, Inga and Beckmann, Aike},
   title = {Towards a model of cyanobacteria life cycle—effects of growing and resting stages on bloom formation of N2-fixing species},
   journal = {Ecological Modelling},
   volume = {195},
   number = {3},
   pages = {205-218},
   abstract = {Cyanobacteria blooms are a common phenomenon in aquatic environments but although considerable effort has been devoted to study various aspects of bloom formation, the processes involved are still not fully understood. Most of the factors that have been investigated can be categorised as external (e.g. N/P-ratio, temperature), whereas internal factors on the generation of cyanobacteria blooms through their distinctive life cycle have not yet been sufficiently considered. To fill this gap and to investigate the dynamics of cyanobacteria life cycles, a numerical model has been developed. The model assumes that the life cycle is governed by the internal energy and nitrogen quotas of the cells, and discriminates four different stages: vegetative cells, vegetative cells with heterocysts, akinetes and recruiting cells (including germinates). The seasonal succession of life stages is simulated in a one-dimensional framework, and a typical bloom is successfully simulated with a set of plausible parameters. Observed interannual variations in the relative proportions of different life cycle stages can be explained as the direct result of life cycle dynamics. The results show that life cycle simulations are feasible and can be used to test hypotheses and to determine sensitivities regarding the role of cyanobacteria life cycles in marine and limnic environments. Our study indicates that prediction of cyanobacteria blooms has to be based on a detailed knowledge of all stages of the life cycle.},
   keywords = {Akinetes
Cyanobacteria
Heterocysts
Internal quotas
Life cycle
Model},
   ISSN = {0304-3800},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.018},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380005005661},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3376,
   author = {Hense, Inga and Beckmann, Aike},
   title = {The representation of cyanobacteria life cycle processes in aquatic ecosystem models},
   journal = {Ecological Modelling},
   volume = {221},
   number = {19},
   pages = {2330-2338},
   abstract = {Two simplified versions of a numerical life cycle model for diazotrophic cyanobacteria (of the order Nostocales) are developed and evaluated. Both consider two-life cycle stages, one growing, nitrogen-fixing stage and one stage that combines the resting, germinating and vegetative stages. The versions differ in the vertical resolution of the non-diazotrophic stage: version 1 collects the biomass in one layer at the bottom, version 2 considers sinking and rising of biomass explicitly. The results of the two versions are compared with a complex cyanobacteria life cycle model which describes four different life cycle stages each with two internal quotas for energy and nitrogen. The two simplified approaches show a good agreement with respect to the main characteristics of cyanobacteria dynamics (timing and duration of blooms, magnitude of nitrogen fixation, interannual variability). Our model study shows that both simplified approaches are suitable to be implemented into three-dimensional coastal or lake models.},
   keywords = {Phytoplankton models
Life cycle processes
Seed population
Nitrogen fixation
Harmful algae
Maturation},
   ISSN = {0304-3800},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.06.014},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380010002838},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2124,
   author = {Hense, Inga and Meier, H. E. Markus and Sonntag, Sebastian},
   title = {Projected climate change impact on Baltic Sea cyanobacteria},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {119},
   number = {2},
   pages = {391-406},
   abstract = {Compared to other phytoplankton groups, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria generally prefer high water temperatures for growth and are therefore expected to benefit from global warming. We use a coupled biological-physical model with an advanced cyanobacteria life cycle model to compare the abundance of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea during two different time periods (1969–1998; 2069–2098). For the latter, we find prolonged growth and a more than twofold increase in the climatologically (30 years) averaged cyanobacteria biomass and nitrogen fixation. Additional sensitivity experiments indicate that the biological-physical feedback mechanism through light absorption becomes more important with global warming. In general, we find a nonlinear response of cyanobacteria to changes in the atmospheric forcing fields as a result of life-cycle related feedback mechanisms. Overall, the sensitivity of the cyanobacteria-driven system suggests that biological-physical and life-cycle related feedback mechanisms are important and must therefore be included in future projection studies.},
   ISSN = {1573-1480},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0702-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0702-y},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3102,
   author = {Herlemann, D. P. R. and Manecki, M. and Dittmar, T. and Jürgens, K.},
   title = {Differential responses of marine, mesohaline and oligohaline bacterial communities to the addition of terrigenous carbon},
   journal = {Environmental Microbiology},
   volume = {19},
   number = {8},
   pages = {3098-3117},
   abstract = {Summary In response to global warming, increasing quantities of tDOM are transported through estuaries from land to the sea. In this study, we investigated microbial responses to increased tDOM concentrations in three salinity regimes (salinity: 32, 7 and 3) characteristic of the Baltic Sea. Mesocosm experiments performed in May and November revealed low (0–6%) dissolved organic carbon (DOC) utilisation. Molecular DOM analyses using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry identified the terrigenous signal in the tDOM manipulation, but the molecular changes in DOM levels over the course of the experiment were subtle. However, tDOM had significant stimulatory effects on bacterial production in the oligohaline mesocosms. The shift in the bacterial community composition was especially prominent in the tDOM-amended marine and mesohaline mesocosms, but not in the oligohaline mesocosms after 7 and 11 days of incubation. These results suggested the inherent ability of oligohaline bacterial communities to adapt to high tDOM concentrations and therefore to use tDOM. The higher rates of bacterial activity and DOC removal in mesocosms containing UV-pretreated tDOM supported the increased bioavailability of photoinduced, modified tDOM. The overall low rates of microbial tDOM utilisation highlights the importance of abiotic factors in determining the distribution and dynamics of tDOM in estuaries.},
   ISSN = {1462-2912},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.13784},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1462-2920.13784},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3100,
   author = {Herlemann, Daniel P. R. and Labrenz, Matthias and Jürgens, Klaus and Bertilsson, Stefan and Waniek, Joanna J. and Andersson, Anders F.},
   title = {Transitions in bacterial communities along the 2000 km salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {The ISME Journal},
   volume = {5},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1571-1579},
   abstract = {Salinity is a major factor controlling the distribution of biota in aquatic systems, and most aquatic multicellular organisms are either adapted to life in saltwater or freshwater conditions. Consequently, the saltwater–freshwater mixing zones in coastal or estuarine areas are characterized by limited faunal and floral diversity. Although changes in diversity and decline in species richness in brackish waters is well documented in aquatic ecology, it is unknown to what extent this applies to bacterial communities. Here, we report a first detailed bacterial inventory from vertical profiles of 60 sampling stations distributed along the salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea, one of world's largest brackish water environments, generated using 454 pyrosequencing of partial (400 bp) 16S rRNA genes. Within the salinity gradient, bacterial community composition altered at broad and finer-scale phylogenetic levels. Analogous to faunal communities within brackish conditions, we identified a bacterial brackish water community comprising a diverse combination of freshwater and marine groups, along with populations unique to this environment. As water residence times in the Baltic Sea exceed 3 years, the observed bacterial community cannot be the result of mixing of fresh water and saltwater, but our study represents the first detailed description of an autochthonous brackish microbiome. In contrast to the decline in the diversity of multicellular organisms, reduced bacterial diversity at brackish conditions could not be established. It is possible that the rapid adaptation rate of bacteria has enabled a variety of lineages to fill what for higher organisms remains a challenging and relatively unoccupied ecological niche.},
   ISSN = {1751-7370},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2011.41},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ismej.2011.41},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN2454,
   author = {Herrmann, C. and Hario, M. and Sonntag, N. and Tjernberg, M. and Thorup, O. and Fedorov, V. and Kieckbusch, J. and Stipniece, A.  and Sternik, L. },
   title = {Red List of Baltic breeding and wintering birds},
   publisher = {Helsinki Commission},
   volume = {No. 140},
   number = {7.4},
   pages = {74-89},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Electronic Book Section}
}

@article{RN2713,
   author = {Hesse, Cornelia and Krysanova, Valentina and Stefanova, Anastassi and Bielecka, Małgorzata and Domnin, Dmitry A.},
   title = {Assessment of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality of the multi-river Vistula Lagoon catchment},
   journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
   volume = {60},
   number = {5},
   pages = {890-911},
   ISSN = {0262-6667},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.967247},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.967247},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1554,
   author = {Heyen, Hauke and Zorita, Eduardo and Von Storch, Hans},
   title = {Statistical downscaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air-pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {48},
   number = {2},
   pages = {312-323},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1996.t01-1-00008.x},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3122,
   author = {Hiebenthal, Claas and Philipp, Eva E. R. and Eisenhauer, Anton and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Effects of seawater pCO2 and temperature on shell growth, shell stability, condition and cellular stress of Western Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis (L.) and Arctica islandica (L.)},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {160},
   number = {8},
   pages = {2073-2087},
   abstract = {Acidification of the World’s oceans may directly impact reproduction, performance and shell formation of marine calcifying organisms. In addition, since shell production is costly and stress in general draws on an organism’s energy budget, shell growth and stability of bivalves should indirectly be affected by environmental stress. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a combination of warming and acidification leads to increased physiological stress (lipofuscin accumulation and mortality) and affects the performance [shell growth, shell breaking force, condition index (Ci)] of young Mytilus edulis and Arctica islandica from the Baltic Sea. We cultured the bivalves in a fully-crossed 2-factorial experimental setup (seawater (sw) pCO2 levels “low”, “medium” and “high” for both species, temperature levels 7.5, 10, 16, 20 and 25 °C for M. edulis and 7.5, 10 and 16 °C for A. islandica) for 13 weeks in summer. Mytilus edulis and A. islandica appeared to tolerate wide ranges of sw temperature and pCO2. Lipofuscin accumulation of M. edulis increased with temperature while the Ci decreased, but shell growth of the mussels only sharply decreased while its mortality increased between 20 and 25 °C. In A. islandica, lipofuscin accumulation increased with temperature, whereas the Ci, shell growth and shell breaking force decreased. The pCO2 treatment had only marginal effects on the measured parameters of both bivalve species. Shell growth of both bivalve species was not impaired by under-saturation of the sea water with respect to aragonite and calcite. Furthermore, independently of water temperatures shell breaking force of both species and shell growth of A. islandica remained unaffected by the applied elevated sw pCO2 for several months. Only at the highest temperature (25 °C), growth arrest of M. edulis was recorded at the high sw pCO2 treatment and the Ci of M. edulis was slightly higher at the medium sw pCO2 treatment than at the low and high sw pCO2 treatments. The only effect of elevated sw pCO2 on A. islandica was an increase in lipofuscin accumulation at the high sw pCO2 treatment compared to the medium sw pCO2 treatment. Our results show that, despite this robustness, growth of both M. edulis and A. islandica can be reduced if sw temperatures remain high for several weeks in summer. As large body size constitutes an escape from crab and sea star predation, this can make bivalves presumably more vulnerable to predation—with possible negative consequences on population growth. In M. edulis, but not in A. islandica, this effect is amplified by elevated sw pCO2. We follow that combined effects of elevated sw pCO2 and ocean warming might cause shifts in future Western Baltic Sea community structures and ecosystem services; however, only if predators or other interacting species do not suffer as strong from these stressors.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-2080-9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-2080-9},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1937,
   author = {Hieronymus, J. and Eilola, K. and Hieronymus, M. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Saraiva, S. and Karlson, B.},
   title = {Causes of simulated long-term changes in phytoplankton biomass in the Baltic proper: a wavelet analysis},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {15},
   number = {16},
   pages = {5113-5129},
   note = {BG
https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5113/2018/bg-15-5113-2018.pdf},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5113-2018},
   url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5113/2018/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3374,
   author = {Hieronymus, J. and Eilola, K. and Olofsson, M. and Hense, I. and Meier, H. E. M. and Almroth-Rosell, E.},
   title = {Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {18},
   pages = {6213–6227},
   note = {BGD},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1975,
   author = {Hieronymus, Magnus and Kalén, Ola},
   title = {Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {49},
   pages = {1587–1600},
   abstract = {New sea-level rise projections for Sweden are presented. Compared to earlier projections, we have here, more carefully, taken regional variations in sea-level rise into consideration. The better treatment of regional variations leads to lower sea-level rise projections for Sweden. However, recent research has also shown that Antarctic ice loss, in high emission scenarios, could be greater than what was believed earlier. Taking also this into account, we find a near cancellation between the increased Antarctic contribution and the decrease owing to the better treatment of spatial inhomogeneities. Sweden’s sensitivity to melt from Antarctica and Greenland is also estimated using a new set of sea-level fingerprint kernels, and the sensitivity to melt from Greenland is found to be weak. To illustrate the influence mean sea-level rise has on extreme sea levels, it is also shown how the return period of sea-level extremes changes as a function of time owing to mean sea-level rise in the different projections.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2378,
   author = {Hill, Emma M. and Davis, James L. and Tamisiea, Mark E. and Lidberg, Martin},
   title = {Combination of geodetic observations and models for glacial isostatic adjustment fields in Fennoscandia},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth},
   volume = {115},
   number = {B7},
   pages = {B07403},
   abstract = {We demonstrate a new technique for using geodetic data to update a priori predictions for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in the Fennoscandia region. Global Positioning System (GPS), tide gauge, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity rates are assimilated into our model. The technique allows us to investigate the individual contributions from these data sets to the output GIA model in a self-consistent manner. Another benefit of the technique is that we are able to estimate uncertainties for the output model. These are reduced with each data set assimilated. Any uncertainties in the GPS reference frame are absorbed by reference frame adjustments that are estimated as part of the assimilation. Our updated model shows a spatial pattern and magnitude of peak uplift that is consistent with previous models, but our location of peak uplift is slightly to the east of many of these. We also simultaneously estimate a spatially averaged rate of local sea level rise. This regional rate (∼1.5 mm/yr) is consistent for all solutions, regardless of which data sets are assimilated or the magnitude of a priori GPS reference frame constraints. However, this is only the case if a uniform regional gravity rate, probably representing errors in, or unmodeled contributions to, the low-degree harmonic terms from GRACE, is also estimated for the assimilated GRACE data. Our estimated sea level rate is consistent with estimates obtained using a more traditional approach of direct “correction” using collocated GPS and tide gauge sites.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jb006967},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2009JB006967},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1976,
   author = {Hilton, T. W. and Najjar, R. G. and Zhong, L. and Li, M.},
   title = {Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity?},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {113},
   number = {C9},
   abstract = {We evaluate the hypothesis that sea-level rise over the second half of the 20th century has led to detectable increases in Chesapeake Bay salinity. We exploit a simple, statistical model that predicts monthly mean salinity as a function of Susquehanna River flow in 23 segments of the main stem Chesapeake Bay. The residual (observed minus modeled) salinity exhibits statistically significant linear (p < 0.05) trends between 1949 and 2006 in 13 of the 23 segments of the bay. The salinity change estimated from the trend line over this period varies from −2.0 to 2.2, with 10 of the 13 cells showing positive changes. The mean and median salinity changes over all 23 cells are 0.47 and 0.72; over the 13 cells with significant trends they are 0.71 and 1.1. We ran a hydrodynamic model of the bay under present-day and reduced sea level conditions and found a bay-average salinity increase of about 0.5, which supports the hypothesis that the salinity residual trends have a significant component due to sea-level rise. Uncertainties remain, however, due to the spatial and temporal extent of historical salinity data and the infilling of the bay due to sedimentation. The salinity residuals also exhibit interannual variability, with peaks occurring at intervals of roughly 7 to 9 years, which are partially explained by Atlantic Shelf salinity, Potomac River flow and the meridional component of wind stress.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jc004247},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007JC004247},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3176,
   author = {Hinrichsen, H. H. and Hüssy, K. and Huwer, B.},
   title = {Spatio-temporal variability in western Baltic cod early life stage survival mediated by egg buoyancy, hydrography and hydrodynamics},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {69},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1744-1752},
   abstract = {Hinrichsen, H-H., Hüssy, K., and Huwer, B. 2012. Spatio-temporal variability in western Baltic cod early life stage survival mediated by egg buoyancy, hydrography and hydrodynamics. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1744–1752.To disentangle the effects of different drivers on recruitment variability of marine fish, a spatially and temporally explicit understanding of both the spawning stock size and the early life stage dynamics is required. The objectives of this study are to assess the transport of western Baltic cod early life stages as well as the variability in environmentally-mediated survival along drift routes in relation to both spatial (within and between different spawning areas) and temporal (interannual and seasonal) dynamics. A spatially and temporally highly-resolved biophysical model of the Baltic Sea was used to describe mortalities and survival success of eggs and yolk-sac larvae—represented by individual, virtual drifters—as predicted proportions of drifters that either died due to bottom contact or lethal temperatures, or that survived up to the end of the yolk-sac larval stage. The environmental conditions allowing survival of cod and yolk-sac larvae indicate that favourable conditions predominately occurred during the late spawning season, while minimum survival rates could be expected from January to March. The spatial analysis of different spawning areas revealed highest survival chances in the Kattegat, intermediate survival in the Great Belt, and only low survival in the Sound, Kiel Bay and Mecklenburg Bay.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss137},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss137},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2529,
   author = {Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald and Huwer, Bastian and Makarchouk, Andrejs and Petereit, Christoph and Schaber, Matthias and Voss, Rudi},
   title = {Climate-driven long-term trends in Baltic Sea oxygen concentrations and the potential consequences for eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua)},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {68},
   number = {10},
   pages = {2019-2028},
   abstract = {Hinrichsen, H-H., Huwer, B., Makarchouk, A., Petereit, C., Schaber, M., and Voss, R. 2011. Climate-driven long-term trends in Baltic Sea oxygen concentrations and the potential consequences for eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 2019–2028.Variations in oxygen conditions in the Baltic are influenced by several mechanisms. Generally, the frequency and magnitude of major inflows have been identified as the most crucial process for the renewal of oxygen-depleted water masses in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, enhanced degradation of suspended organic matter by bacteria over the past few decades has increased oxygen consumption. Finally, the effects of large-scale climate warming are causing long-term variations in oxygen content and saturation as an observed increase in temperature has led to a general decrease in oxygen solubility of water masses. Oxygen-dependent relationships based on field data and laboratory experiments were used to analyse the impact of the observed decrease in oxygen content on eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock-specific processes (e.g. survival rates of eggs, settlement probability of juveniles, habitat utilization of spawning fish, age structure of successful spawners, food consumption rates of adult fish). The observed long-term decline in oxygen conditions in the Baltic Sea has had a seemingly generally negative impact on oxygen-related processes for the different life stages of eastern Baltic cod. Experimentally derived results of oxygen-driven processes were validated by field data.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr145},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr145},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2455,
   author = {Hisdal, Hege and Holmqvist, Erik and Jonsdottir, Jona Finndis and Jonsson, Pall  and Kuusisto, Esko and Lindstroem, Goeran  and Roald, Lars A.},
   title = {Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries?},
   publisher = {Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)},
   address = {Oslo, Norway},
   volume = {1},
   pages = {28},
   ISBN = {978-82-410-0705-7},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN1752,
   author = {Hjalmarsson, Sofia and Wesslander, Karin and Anderson, Leif G and Omstedt, Anders and Perttila, Matti and Mintrop, Ludger},
   title = {Distribution, long-term development and mass balance calculation of total alkalinity in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {28},
   number = {4-5},
   pages = {593-601},
   abstract = {During the 20th century, extensively hydrographic investigations had
been performed in the Baltic Sea. One of the parameters that have been
determined during these historic investigations of the Baltic Sea is the
total alkalinity (AT), In this study, this large data set is used
together with a specifically developed box model to estimate the in- and
outflows of salinity and AT within the different sub-basins. The Baltic
Sea receives large amounts of freshwater through river runoff, and AT
can be used as a chemical signature of the runoff as its concentration
depends on the mineralogy of the drainage basin. Rivers entering the
southern part of the Baltic Sea are draining areas rich in limestone,
therefore having higher AT than rivers entering the northern part of the
Baltic Sea where granite dominates the bedrock. The mean AT in rivers
entering a specific region of the Baltic Sea is achieved by the
intercept of the regression line when salinity is plotted versus AT for
the corresponding data. In this study, the focus is on the Gulf of
Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia where the longest time series data are
available. There is a common trend with an increase in AT in rivers
entering the Gulf of Finland and a decrease in AT in rivers entering the
Gulf of Bothnia. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2007.11.010},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2530,
   author = {Hjerne, Olle and Hajdu, Susanna and Larsson, Ulf and Downing, Andrea S. and Winder, Monika},
   title = {Climate Driven Changes in Timing, Composition and Magnitude of the Baltic Sea Phytoplankton Spring Bloom},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {6},
   number = {482},
   abstract = {Spring phytoplankton blooms contribute a substantial part to annual production, support pelagic and benthic secondary production and influence biogeochemical cycles in many temperate aquatic systems. Understanding environmental effects on spring bloom dynamics is important for predicting future climate responses and for managing aquatic systems. We analyzed long-term phytoplankton data from one coastal and one offshore station in the Baltic Sea to uncover trends in timing, composition and size of the spring bloom and its correlations to environmental variables. There was a general trend of earlier phytoplankton blooms by 1–2 weeks over the last 20 years, associated with more sunshine and less windy conditions. High water temperatures were associated with earlier blooms of diatoms and dinoflagellates that dominate the spring bloom, and decreased diatom bloom magnitude. Overall bloom timing, however, was buffered by a temperature and ice related shift in composition from early blooming diatoms to later blooming dinoflagellates and the autotrophic ciliate Mesodinium rubrum. Such counteracting responses to climate change highlight the importance of both general and taxon-specific investigations. We hypothesize that the predicted earlier blooms of diatoms and dinoflagellates as a response to the expected temperature increase in the Baltic Sea might also be counteracted by more clouds and stronger winds. A shift from early blooming and fast sedimenting diatoms to later blooming groups of dinoflagellates and M. rubrum at higher temperatures during the spring period is expected to increase energy transfers to pelagic secondary production and decrease spring bloom inputs to the benthic system, resulting in lower benthic production and reduced oxygen consumption.},
   keywords = {Mesodinium cf. rubrum,dinoflagellates,Diatoms,Baltic Sea,Phenology,spring bloom,Phytoplankton,Climate Change},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00482},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00482},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1911,
   author = {Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh and Gröger, Matthias and Rockel, Burkhardt and Zahn, Matthias and Geyer, Beate and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3851-3876},
   abstract = {This study introduces a new approach to investigate the potential effects of air-sea coupling on simulated precipitation inland over Central Europe. We present an inter-comparison of two regional climate models (RCMs), namely, the COSMO-CLM (hereafter CCLM) and RCA4 models, which are configured for the EURO-CORDEX domain in the coupled and atmosphere-only modes. Two versions of the CCLM model, namely, 4.8 and 5.0, join the inter-comparison being almost two different models while providing pronouncedly different summer precipitation simulations because of many changes in the dynamics and physics of CCLM in version 5.0. The coupling effect on the prominent summer dry bias over Central Europe is analysed using seasonal (JJA) mean statistics for the 30-year period from 1979 to 2009, with a focus on extreme precipitation under specific weather regimes. The weather regimes are compared between the coupled and uncoupled simulations to better understand the mechanism of the coupling effects. The comparisons of the coupled systems with the atmosphere-only models show that coupling clearly reduces the dry bias over Central Europe for CCLM 4.8, which has a large dry summer bias, but not for CCLM 5.0 and RCA4, which have smaller dry biases. This result implies that if the atmosphere-only model already yields reasonable summer precipitation over Central Europe, not much room for improvement exists that can be caused by the air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. However, if the atmosphere-only model shows a pronounced summer dry bias because of a lack of moisture transport from the seas into the region, the considered coupling may create an improved simulation of summer precipitation over Central Europe, such as for CCLM 4.8. For the latter, the benefit of coupling varies over the considered timescales. The precipitation simulations that are generated by the coupled system COSTRICE 4.8 and the atmosphere-only CCLM 4.8 are mostly identical for the summer mean. However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3546-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3546-8},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2410,
   author = {Hobday, Alistair J. and Oliver, Eric C. J. and Gupta, Alex Sen and Benthuysen, Jessica A. and Burrows, Michael T. and Donat, Markus G. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Moore, Pippa J. and Thomsen, Mads S. and Wernberg, Thomas and Smale, Dan A.},
   title = {Categorizing and Naming MARINE HEATWAVES},
   journal = {Oceanography},
   volume = {31},
   number = {2},
   pages = {162-173},
   abstract = {[Considerable attention has been directed at understanding the consequences and impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Discrete, climatically extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves can also significantly affect regional environments and species, including humans. Climate change is expected to intensify these events and thus exacerbate their effects. Climatic extremes also occur in the ocean, and recent decades have seen many high-impact marine heatwaves (MHWs)—anomalously warm water events that may last many months and extend over thousands of square kilometers. A range of biological, economic, and political impacts have been associated with the more intense MHWs, and measuring the severity of these phenomena is becoming more important. Progress in understanding and public awareness will be facilitated by consistent description of these events. Here, we propose a detailed categorization scheme for MHWs that builds on a recently published classification, combining elements from schemes that describe atmospheric heatwaves and hurricanes. Category I, II, III, and IV MHWs are defined based on the degree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology and illustrated for 10 MHWs. While there is a long-term increase in the occurrence frequency of all MHW categories, the largest trend is a 24% increase in the area of the ocean where strong (Category II) MHWs occur. Use of this scheme can help explain why biological impacts associated with different MHWs can vary widely and provides a consistent way to compare events. We also propose a simple naming convention based on geography and year that would further enhance scientific and public awareness of these marine events.]},
   ISSN = {10428275, 2377617X},
   url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26542662},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2663,
   author = {Hock, R. and Rasul, G. and Adler, C. and Cáceres, B. and Gruber, S. and Hirabayashi, Y. and Jackson, M. and Kääb, A. and Kang, S. and Kutuzov, S. and Milner, Al. and Molau, U. and Morin, S. and Orlove, B. and Steltzer, H.},
   title = {High Mountain Areas},
   booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
   editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-2/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inbook{RN3347,
   author = {Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove and Caldeira, Ken and Chopin, Thierry and Gaines, Steve and Haugan, Peter and Hemer, Mark and Howard, Jennifer and Konar, Manaswita and Krause-Jensen, Dorte and Lindstad, Elizabeth and Lovelock, Catherine E. and Michelin, Mark and Nielsen, Finn Gunnar and Northrop, Eliza and Parker, Robert and Roy, Joyashree and Smith, Tristan and Some, Shreya and Tyedmers, Peter},
   title = {Coastal and Marine Ecosystems},
   booktitle = {The Ocean as a Solution to Climate Change: Five Opportunities for Action},
   publisher = {World Resources Institute},
   address = {Washington, DC, USA},
   pages = {47-57},
   DOI = {Available online at http://www.oceanpanel.org/climate},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3287,
   author = {Hoffmann, Gösta and Lampe, Reinhard},
   title = {Sediment budget calculation to estimate Holocene coastal changes on the southwest Baltic Sea (Germany)},
   journal = {Marine Geology},
   volume = {243},
   number = {1},
   pages = {143-156},
   abstract = {The tide-less SW Baltic Sea has a paraglacial coast. Alternating Pleistocene cliff sections and Holocene barrier systems separate shallow lagoons from the open sea. More than 300 cores penetrating the Holocene coastal sequence allowed for detailed reconstruction of the palaeogeographic evolution. The sequence formed in response to transgression in the early Holocene (∼8000 year BP). The barrier–cliff system evolution is described as four stages. Over these stages, dependencies of sedimentation processes to the rate of sea-level rise are obvious. To reconstruct palaeo-coast configurations, mass balance calculations were applied. Retreating cliff sections are seen as the main source for coastal sediment. Starting from mapped volumes of sand incorporated in barriers, cliff retreat in the last 8000 years is calculated to total 2400 m at maximum. Sediment supply to the coastal zone averaged over the larger part of the Holocene is approximately three times smaller than for the last hundreds years. This signals accelerated rise of sea-level since c. 1000 years and hints on what to expect when sea-level rises faster in the future. Such will cause intensified coastal erosion and eventually the formation of new inlets. A general drowning of the coastal landscape, as observed in the early Holocene is unlikely.},
   keywords = {sea-level rise
barrier evolution
palaeogeographic reconstruction
coastal erosion
coastal deposition
cliff retreat},
   ISSN = {0025-3227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2007.04.014},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025322707001132},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2128,
   author = {Hoikkala, L. and Kortelainen, P. and Soinne, H. and Kuosa, H.},
   title = {Dissolved organic matter in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {142},
   pages = {47-61},
   abstract = {Several factors highlight the importance of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in coastal ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea: 1) DOM is the main energy source for heterotrophic bacteria in surface waters, thus contributing to the productivity and trophic state of bodies of water. 2) DOM functions as a nutrient source: in the Baltic Sea, more than one-fourth of the bioavailable nutrients can occur in the dissolved organic form in riverine inputs and in surface water during summer. Thus, DOM also supports primary production, both directly (osmotrophy) and indirectly (via remineralization). 3) Flocculation and subsequent deposition of terrestrial DOM within river estuaries may contribute to production and oxygen consumption in coastal sediments. 4) Chromophoric DOM, which is one of the major absorbers of light entering the Baltic Sea, contributes highly to water color, thus affecting the photosynthetic depth as well as recreational value of the Baltic Sea. Despite its large-scale importance to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, DOM has been of minor interest compared with inorganic nutrient loadings. Information on the concentrations and dynamics of DOM in the Baltic Sea has accumulated since the late 1990s, but it is still sporadic. This review provides a coherent view of the current understanding of DOM dynamics in the Baltic Sea.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Dissolved organic matter
Catchment area
Biogeochemistry
Coastal oceanography
Carbon cycling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.10.005},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314002358},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1669,
   author = {Holland, Marika M and Bitz, Cecilia M},
   title = {Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {21},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {221-232},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0332-6},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2651,
   author = {Holmlund, Erik S. and Holmlund, Per},
   title = {Constraining 135 years of mass balance with historic structure-from-motion photogrammetry on Storglaciären, Sweden},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   volume = {101},
   number = {3},
   pages = {195-210},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2019.1588543},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2019.1588543},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2652,
   author = {Holmlund, Per and Holmlund, Erik S.},
   title = {Recent climate-induced shape changes of the ice summit of Kebnekaise, Northern Sweden},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   volume = {101},
   number = {1},
   pages = {68-78},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2018.1542130},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2018.1542130},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2129,
   author = {Holopainen, Reetta and Lehtiniemi, Maiju and Meier, H. E. Markus and Albertsson, Jan and Gorokhova, Elena and Kotta, Jonne and Viitasalo, Markku},
   title = {Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century},
   journal = {Biological Invasions},
   volume = {18},
   number = {10},
   pages = {3015-3032},
   abstract = {Biological invasions coupled with climate change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warming climate and changes in hydrology may either enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) and little is known about how climate change modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific sea areas. We calculated from climate change simulations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., 2–5 °C sea surface temperature rise and even up to 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of pelagic and benthic NIS established in—or with dispersal potential to—the northern Baltic Sea, and assessed how climate change will likely affect them. Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and mysids are expected to widen their distribution and increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended summer season allow higher reproduction success in bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Successful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1573-1464},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1197-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1197-z},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1754,
   author = {Holt, J and Butenschoen, M and Wakelin, S L and Artioli, Y and Allen, J I},
   title = {Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1},
   pages = {97-117},
   abstract = {In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients
are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary
production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of
5-10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling
simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both
reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere
general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions
in 2080-2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the
corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a
substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of
the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This
arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport
experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates
from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this
increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary
production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This
relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter
nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary
production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf
processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing
season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in
this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North
Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5-10%) compared
with a decrease of 0-20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North
Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation
experiment and a simple mixing model.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-97-2012},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1900,
   author = {Holt, Jason and Schrum, Corinna and Cannaby, Heather and Daewel, Ute and Allen, Icarus and Artioli, Yuri and Bopp, Laurent and Butenschon, Momme and Fach, Bettina A. and Harle, James and Pushpadas, Dhanya and Salihoglu, Baris and Wakelin, Sarah},
   title = {Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {140},
   pages = {91-115},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.11.004},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661115002372},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2706,
   author = {Holtermann, Peter L. and Prien, Ralf and Naumann, Michael and Mohrholz, Volker and Umlauf, Lars},
   title = {Deepwater dynamics and mixing processes during a major inflow event in the central Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {122},
   number = {8},
   pages = {6648-6667},
   abstract = {Abstract Intrusions of large amounts of dense and oxygen-rich waters during so-called Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) form an essential component of the Baltic Sea overturning circulation and deepwater ventilation. Despite their importance, however, detailed observations of the processes occurring in the central basins during an MBI are virtually lacking. Here data from a long-term deployment of an autonomous profiling platform located in the center of one of the main basins are presented, providing the first direct and detailed view of the deepwater modifications and dynamics induced by one of the largest MBIs ever recorded (MBI 2014/2015). Approximately, 21 Gmol of oxygen were imported during three distinct inflow phases with an unexpectedly large contribution of oxic intrusions at intermediate depth. Oxygen consumption rates during the stagnation period immediately following the inflow phase was found to be 87 g m−2 yr−1 with a dominant contribution of sedimentary oxygen demand. The most energetic deepwater processes (topographic and near-inertial waves) were only marginally affected by the inflow; however, subinertial energy levels associated with intrusions and eddies were strongly enhanced. Turbulence microstructure data revealed that the deep interior regions remain essentially nonturbulent even during the energetic conditions of an MBI, emphasizing the importance of boundary mixing. Warm intrusions frequently showed a temperature fine structure with vertical scales of the order of 0.1 m, without any signs of active turbulence. At the upper flanks of these intrusions, double-diffusive staircases were often found to develop, suggesting an important alternative mixing process during inflow conditions.},
   ISSN = {2169-9275},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013050},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017JC013050},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2705,
   author = {Holtermann, Peter L. and Umlauf, Lars},
   title = {The Baltic Sea Tracer Release Experiment: 2. Mixing processes},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {117},
   number = {C01022},
   abstract = {Deep water mixing processes in the largest basin of the Baltic Sea (Gotland Basin) are investigated here with the help of long-term moored instrumentation and turbulence microstructure measurements. Budgets for heat and salinity reveal a strong temporal variability in the deep water mixing coefficients that is shown to be coupled to the wind forcing down to time scales of individual wind events. Consistent with the results from a simultaneously conducted tracer release experiment, near-boundary turbulence was identified as the key processes for basin-scale mixing. Turbulent bottom boundary layers were found to be thick and stable in the flat, deep part of the basin, where highest dissipation rates were observed, and comparatively thin, less energetic, and highly variable on the slopes due to a permanent tendency for boundary layer restratification. In the absence of internal tides, strongly damped basin-scale topographic waves with periods of a few days, a deep rim current, and, to a smaller extent, near-inertial waves were identified as the main energy sources for boundary mixing. These results are likely to be relevant also for other medium-sized stratified basins.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007445},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011JC007445},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2704,
   author = {Holtermann, Peter L. and Umlauf, Lars and Tanhua, Toste and Schmale, Oliver and Rehder, Gregor and Waniek, Joanna J.},
   title = {The Baltic Sea Tracer Release Experiment: 1. Mixing rates},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {117},
   number = {C01021},
   abstract = {In this study, results from the Baltic Sea Tracer Release Experiment (BATRE) are described, in which deep water mixing rates and mixing processes in the central Baltic Sea were investigated. In September 2007, an inert tracer gas (CF3SF5) was injected at approximately 200 m depth in the Gotland Basin, and the subsequent spreading of the tracer was observed during six surveys until February 2009. These data describe the diapycnal and lateral mixing during a stagnation period without any significant deep water renewal due to inflow events. As one of the main results, vertical mixing rates were found to dramatically increase after the tracer had reached the lateral boundaries of the basin, suggesting boundary mixing as the key process for basin-scale vertical mixing. Basin-scale vertical diffusivities were of the order of 10−5 m2 s−1(about 1 order of magnitude larger than interior diffusivities) with evidence for a seasonal and vertical variability. In contrast to tracer experiments in the open ocean, the basin geometry (hypsography) was found to have a crucial impact on the vertical tracer spreading. The e-folding time scale for deep water renewal due to mixing was slightly less than 2 years, the time scale for the lateral homogenization of the tracer patch was of the order of a few months.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007439},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011JC007439},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3136,
   author = {Hong, Bongghi and Swaney, Dennis P. and McCrackin, Michelle and Svanbäck, Annika and Humborg, Christoph and Gustafsson, Bo and Yershova, Alexandra and Pakhomau, Aliaksandr},
   title = {Advances in NANI and NAPI accounting for the Baltic drainage basin: spatial and temporal trends and relationships to watershed TN and TP fluxes},
   journal = {Biogeochemistry},
   volume = {133},
   number = {3},
   pages = {245-261},
   abstract = {In order to assess the progress toward eutrophication management goals, it is important to understand trends in land-based nutrient use. Here we present net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) for 2000 and 2010 for the Baltic Sea watershed. Overall, across the entire Baltic, between the 5-year periods centered on 2000 and 2010, NANI and NAPI decreased modestly by −6 and −4%, respectively, but with substantial regional variation, including major increases in the Gulf of Riga drainage basin (+19 and +58%, respectively) and decreases in the Danish Straits drainage basin (−25 and −40% respectively). The changes were due primarily to changes in mineral fertilizer use. Mineral fertilizers dominated inputs, at 57% of both NANI and NAPI in 2000, increasing to 68 and 70%, respectively, by 2010. Net food and feed imports declined over that period, corresponding to increased crop production; either fewer imports of food and feedstocks were required to feed humans and livestock, or more of these commodities were exported. A strong linear relationship exists between regional net nutrient inputs and riverine nutrient fluxes for both periods. About 17% of NANI and 4.7% of NAPI were exported to the sea in 2000; these relationships did not significantly differ from those for 2010. Changes in NANI from 2000 to 2010 across basins were directly proportional rather than linearly related to changes in total N (TN) fluxes to the sea (i.e., no change in NANI suggests no change in TN flux). Similarly, for all basins except those draining to the Baltic Proper, changes in NAPI were proportional to changes in total P (TP) fluxes. The Danish Straits decreased most between 2000 and 2010, where NANI and NAPI declined by 25 and 40%, respectively, and corresponding fluxes of TN and TP declined 31 and 18%, respectively. For the Baltic Proper, NAPI was relatively unchanged between 2000 and 2010, while riverine TP fluxes decreased 25%, due possibly to lagged effects of fertilizer reduction resulting from socio-political changes in the early 1990s or improvements in sewage treatment capabilities. For most regions, further reductions in NANI and NAPI could be achieved by more efficient production and greater substitution of manure for imported mineral fertilizers.},
   ISSN = {1573-515X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0330-0},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-017-0330-0},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2130,
   author = {Hong, Bongghi and Swaney, Dennis P. and Mörth, Carl-Magnus and Smedberg, Erik and Eriksson Hägg, Hanna and Humborg, Christoph and Howarth, Robert W. and Bouraoui, Fayçal},
   title = {Evaluating regional variation of net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI/NAPI), major drivers, nutrient retention pattern and management implications in the multinational areas of Baltic Sea basin},
   journal = {Ecological Modelling},
   volume = {227},
   pages = {117-135},
   abstract = {The NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic nitrogen/phosphorus input) Calculator Toolbox described in this paper is designed to address the consequences to Baltic Sea nutrient loads of the significant variation in agronomic practices and dietary preferences among European countries whose watersheds comprise the Baltic Sea basin. A primary objective of this work is to develop regional parameters and datasets for this budgeting tool. A previous version of the toolbox was applied to the entire contiguous United States to calculate NANI and its components (atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation and N in net food and feed imports). Here, it is modified for application to the Baltic Sea catchments, where coastal watersheds from several countries are draining to international waters. A similar accounting approach is taken for calculating NAPI, which includes fertilizer P application, P in net food and feed imports and non-food use of P by human. Regional variation of NANI/NAPI parameters (agricultural fixation rates, human intake rates and livestock intake and excretion rates) are estimated, and their impact on the regional nutrient budget and the riverine nutrient flux is evaluated. There is a distinct north-to-south gradient in NANI and NAPI across the Baltic Sea catchments, and regional nutrient inputs are strongly related to riverine nutrient fluxes. Analysis of regional nutrient retention pattern indicates that, for some countries, compliance to the Baltic Sea Action Plan would imply enormous changes in the agricultural sector.},
   keywords = {Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Anthropogenic
Baltic Sea basin
Management
Toolbox},
   ISSN = {0304-3800},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.002},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380011005849},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2745,
   author = {Hook, O. and Johnels, A. G. and Matthews, Leonard Harrison},
   title = {The breeding and distribution of the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus Fab.) in the Baltic Sea, with observations on other seals of the area},
   journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
   volume = {182},
   number = {1066},
   pages = {37-58},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1972.0065},
   url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspb.1972.0065 %X The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus Fab.) is considered to be one of the rarest species of the seals. The area of greatest abundance is centred around the coasts of the British Isles where the species has been established for a considerable period. The Grey Seals Acts of 1914 and 1932 gave protection to the species in British waters during the breeding months of September to December. But this seal also occurs in other countries in the North Atlantic, notably in Eastern Canada, often on ice (figures 12, 13, plate 4), Iceland, the Faroes, Norway, the Kola peninsular and the Baltic Sea. The total population is estimated (Smith 1966) to be ca. 52500. Since the last deglaciation considerable changes have occurred in the Baltic region, but at the present time in this tideless sea – which embraces the Gulfs of Bothnia, Finland and Riga, and in waters of a salinity as low as 3.75 ‰, of an area of 400000 km2 – the grey seal breeds in March on ice, as does the ringed seal in the same month and also on ice, though the common seal breeds in June on sandbanks or rocks. Within the area is a valuable and productive fishery and an inevitable conflict has for long existed between man and the seals, both predators of economically valuable fish, e. g. herring, cod, eel, salmon and other species, leading to the imposition of bounty payments for seals killed. Over the years very large numbers of grey and ringed seals have been killed, chiefly by fishermen in Sweden and Finland, to obtain bounties from the authorities. Unlike the planned culling and undertaken in some British colonies, the Baltic killings have been made at random and little is known of its effect upon the survival of the species. In the Baltic it is not possible to undertake counts of seals owing to the scattered nature of their breeding and the unpredictability of the winter ice coverage.},
   year = {1972},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3288,
   author = {Hopkins, Tom S. and Bailly, Denis and Elmgren, Ragnar and Glegg, Gillian and Sandberg, Audun and Støttrup, Josianne G.},
   title = {A Systems Approach Framework for the Transition to Sustainable Development: Potential Value Based on Coastal Experiments},
   journal = {Ecology and Society},
   volume = {17},
   number = {3},
   abstract = {This article explores the value of the Systems Approach Framework (SAF) as a tool for the transition to sustainable development in coastal zone systems, based on 18 study sites in Europe, where the SAF was developed and tested. The knowledge gained from these experiments concerns the practical aspects of (a) governance in terms of policy effectiveness, (b) sustainability science in terms of applying transdisciplinary science to social–ecological problems, and (c) simulation analysis in terms of quantifying dysfunctions in complex systems. This new knowledge can help broaden our perspectives on how research can be changed to better serve society. The infusion of systems thinking into research and policy making leads to a preference for multi-issue instead of single-issue studies, an expansion from static to dynamic indicators, an understanding of the boundaries between system-dependent and system-independent problems, and the inclusion of non-market evaluations. It also develops a real partnership among research, management, and stakeholders to establish a quantitative basis for collaborative decision making. Furthermore, the article argues that the transition to sustainable development for coastal systems requires consideration of the scale interdependency from individual to global and recognition of the probable global reorganizational emergence of scale-free networks that could cooperate to maximize the integrated sustainability among them.},
   keywords = {coastal zones
integrated coastal zone management
non-market valuation
scale-free networks
simulation analysis
sustainability science
sustainable development
systems approach
transdisciplinary assessments},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05266-170339},
   url = {https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol17/iss3/art39/},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3103,
   author = {Hoppe, H. G. and Giesenhagen, H. C. and Koppe, R. and Hansen, H. P. and Gocke, K.},
   title = {Impact of change in climate and policy from 1988 to 2007 on environmental and microbial variables at the time series station Boknis Eck, Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {10},
   number = {7},
   pages = {4529-4546},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4529-2013},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/4529/2013/},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1912,
   author = {Hordoir, R. and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Effect of climate change on the thermal stratification of the baltic sea: a sensitivity experiment},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {38},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1703-1713},
   abstract = {The evolution in time of the thermal vertical stratification of the Baltic Sea in future climate is studied using a 3D ocean model. Comparing periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty first centuries we found a strong increase in stratification at the bottom of the mixed layer in the northern Baltic Sea. In order to understand the causes of this increase, a sensitivity analysis is performed. We found that the increased vertical stratification is explained by a major change in re-stratification during spring solely caused by the increase of the mean temperature. As in present climate winter temperatures in the Baltic are often below the temperature of maximum density, warming causes thermal convection. Re-stratification during the beginning of spring is then triggered by the spreading of freshwater. This process is believed to be important for the onset of the spring bloom. In future climate, temperatures are expected to be usually higher than the temperature of maximum density and thermally induced stratification will start without prior thermal convection. Thus, freshwater controlled re-stratification during spring is not an important process anymore. We employed a simple box model and used sensitivity experiments with the 3D ocean model to delineate the processes involved and to quantify the impact of changing freshwater supply on the thermal stratification in the Baltic Sea. It is suggested that these stratification changes may have an important impact on vertical nutrient fluxes and the intensity of the spring bloom in future climate of the Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1036-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1036-y},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2131,
   author = {Hordoir, Robinson and Axell, Lars and Höglund, Anders and Dieterich, Christian and Fransner, Filippa and Gröger, Matthias and Liu, Ye and Pemberton, Per and Schimanke, Semjon and Andersson, Helen and Ljungemyr, Patrik and Nygren, Petter and Falahat, Saeed and Nord, Adam and Jönsson, Anette and Lake, Iréne and Döös, Kristofer and Hieronymus, Magnus and Dietze, Heiner and Löptien, Ulrike and Kuznetsov, Ivan and Westerlund, Antti and Tuomi, Laura and Haapala, Jari },
   title = {Nemo-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO-based ocean model for the Baltic and North seas – research and operational applications},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {12},
   number = {1},
   pages = {363-386},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-363-2019},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1755,
   author = {Hordoir, Robinson and Axell, Lars and Löptien, Ulrike and Dietze, Heiner and Kuznetsov, Ivan},
   title = {Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {120},
   number = {10},
   pages = {6653-6668},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010642},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2457,
   author = {Hordoir, Robinson and Dieterich, Christian and Basu, Chandan and Dietze, Heiner and Meier, H. E. M.},
   title = {Freshwater outflow of the Baltic Sea and transport in the Norwegian current: A statistical correlation analysis based on a numerical experiment},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {64},
   pages = {1-9},
   abstract = {Based on the results of a numerical ocean model, we investigate statistical correlations between wind forcing, surface salinity and freshwater transport out of the Baltic Sea on one hand, and Norwegian coastal current freshwater transport on the other hand. These correlations can be explained in terms of physics and reveal how the two freshwater transports are linked with wind forcing, although this information proves to be non-sufficient when it comes to the dynamics of the Norwegian coastal current. Based on statistical correlations, the Baltic Sea freshwater transport signal is reconstructed and shows a good correlation but a poor variability when compared with the measured signal, at least when data filtered on a two-daily time scale is used. A better variability coherence is reached when data filtered on a weekly or monthly time scale is used. In the latest case, a high degree of precision is reached for the reconstructed signal. Using the same kind of methods for the case of the Norwegian coastal current, the negative peaks of the freshwater transport signal can be reconstructed based on wind data only, but the positive peaks are under-represented although some of them exist mostly because the meridional wind forcing along the Norwegian coast is taken into account. Adding Norwegian coastal salinity data helps improving the reconstruction of the positive peaks, but a major improvement is reached when adding non-linear terms in the statistical reconstruction. All coefficients used to re-construct both freshwater transport signals are provided for use in European Shelf or climate modeling configurations.},
   keywords = {Baltic Sea
Norwegian coastal current
Freshwater fluxes
Numerical model
Statistical reconstruction},
   ISSN = {0278-4343},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.05.006},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434313001532},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2456,
   author = {Hordoir, Robinson and Höglund, Anders and Pemberton, Per and Schimanke, Semjon},
   title = {Sensitivity of the overturning circulation of the Baltic Sea to climate change, a numerical experiment},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {50},
   number = {3},
   pages = {1425-1437},
   abstract = {An ocean model covering the Baltic Sea area is forced by several climate scenarios for a period extending from 1961 to 2100. The Baltic Sea overturning circulation is then analyzed. The analysis shows that this circulation decreases between the end of the 20th century and the end of the 21st century, and that the decrease is amplified in the case of the strongest greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which corresponds with the highest warming cases. The reasons behind this decrease in overturning circulation are investigated. A strong increase of thermal stratification is noticed at the level of the Baltic Sea mixed layer. Based on buoyancy flux considerations, we demonstrate that the decrease in overturning circulation coincides with the increase of thermal stratification. Evidence shows that the underlying process is linked to a smaller erosion of the halocline due to a higher shielding, itself linked with a stronger and longer seasonal thermocline. This theory works if surface wind mixing is not taken into account directly in the computation of buoyancy fluxes.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3695-9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3695-9},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1555,
   author = {Hordoir, Robinson and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Freshwater fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A model study},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {115},
   number = {C8},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005604},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2531,
   author = {Horn, Henriette G. and Boersma, Maarten and Garzke, Jessica and Löder, Martin G. J. and Sommer, Ulrich and Aberle, Nicole},
   title = {Effects of high CO2 and warming on a Baltic Sea microzooplankton community},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {73},
   number = {3},
   pages = {772-782},
   abstract = {Global warming and ocean acidification are among the most important stressors for aquatic ecosystems in the future. To investigate their direct and indirect effects on a near-natural plankton community, a multiple-stressor approach is needed. Hence, we set up mesocosms in a full-factorial design to study the effects of both warming and high CO2 on a Baltic Sea autumn plankton community, concentrating on the impacts on microzooplankton (MZP). MZP abundance, biomass, and species composition were analysed over the course of the experiment. We observed that warming led to a reduced time-lag between the phytoplankton bloom and an MZP biomass maximum. MZP showed a significantly higher growth rate and an earlier biomass peak in the warm treatments while the biomass maximum was not affected. Increased pCO2 did not result in any significant effects on MZP biomass, growth rate, or species composition irrespective of the temperature, nor did we observe any significant interactions between CO2 and temperature. We attribute this to the high tolerance of this estuarine plankton community to fluctuations in pCO2, often resulting in CO2 concentrations higher than the predicted end-of-century concentration for open oceans. In contrast, warming can be expected to directly affect MZP and strengthen its coupling with phytoplankton by enhancing its grazing pressure.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv198},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv198},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1872,
   author = {Hourdin, Frédéric and Foujols, Marie-Alice and Codron, Francis and Guemas, Virginie and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Bony, Sandrine and Denvil, Sébastien and Guez, Lionel and Lott, François and Ghattas, Josefine},
   title = {Impact of the LMDZ atmospheric grid configuration on the climate and sensitivity of the IPSL-CM5A coupled model},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {40},
   number = {9-10},
   pages = {2167-2192},
   ISSN = {0930-7575},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1411-3},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1756,
   author = {Hourdin, Frédéric and Mauritsen, Thorsten and Gettelman, Andrew and Golaz, Jean-Christophe and Balaji, Venkatramani and Duan, Qingyun and Folini, Doris and Ji, Duoying and Klocke, Daniel and Qian, Yun and others},
   title = {The art and science of climate model tuning},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {98},
   number = {3},
   pages = {589-602},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00135.1},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3071,
   author = {Hueging, H. and Others},
   title = {Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
   volume = {52},
   pages = {903-917},
   DOI = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-086.1},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-086.1},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2684,
   author = {Hugelius, Gustaf and Loisel, Julie and Chadburn, Sarah and Jackson, Robert B. and Jones, Miriam and MacDonald, Glen and Marushchak, Maija and Olefeldt, David and Packalen, Maara and Siewert, Matthias B. and Treat, Claire and Turetsky, Merritt and Voigt, Carolina and Yu, Zicheng},
   title = {Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {117},
   number = {34},
   pages = {20438-20446},
   abstract = {Over many millennia, northern peatlands have accumulated large amounts of carbon and nitrogen, thus cooling the global climate. Over shorter timescales, peatland disturbances can trigger losses of peat and release of greenhouses gases. Despite their importance to the global climate, peatlands remain poorly mapped, and the vulnerability of permafrost peatlands to warming is uncertain. This study compiles over 7,000 field observations to present a data-driven map of northern peatlands and their carbon and nitrogen stocks. We use these maps to model the impact of permafrost thaw on peatlands and find that warming will likely shift the greenhouse gas balance of northern peatlands. At present, peatlands cool the climate, but anthropogenic warming can shift them into a net source of warming.Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.The results and peat core data are summarized in Datasets S1–S6. Maps of predicted peatland extent, peat depth, and peat C and N storage (10-km pixels) are archived and freely available for download at https://bolin.su.se/data/hugelius-2020.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/117/34/20438.abstract},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2134,
   author = {Humborg, C. and Mörth, C.-M. and Sundbom, M. and Wulff, F.},
   title = {Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea ? past and possible future perspectives},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
   volume = {11},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1593-1607},
   note = {Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth SciencesJournal articles},
   abstract = {The paper reviews critical processes for the land-sea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment, agricultural practices and increased hydropower demand (for N, P and Si) and of global warming, i.e., changes in hydrological patterns (for C). These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea, their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary, we propose that N fluxes may increase due to higher livestock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU, whereas P and Si fluxes may decrease due to an improved sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates could eventually substitute diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However, it is not clear whether dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity, which have opposite feedbacks to global warming, will increase in similar amounts, because the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration.},
   ISSN = {1812-2108},
   url = {https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00305095},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2643,
   author = {Humborg, Christoph and Geibel, Marc. C. and Sun, Xiaole and McCrackin, Michelle and Mörth, Carl-Magnus and Stranne, Christian and Jakobsson, Martin and Gustafsson, Bo and Sokolov, Alexander and Norkko, Alf and Norkko, Joanna},
   title = {High Emissions of Carbon Dioxide and Methane From the Coastal Baltic Sea at the End of a Summer Heat Wave},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {6},
   number = {493},
   abstract = {The summer heat wave in 2018 led to the highest recorded water temperatures since 1926 – up to 21°C – in bottom coastal waters of the Baltic Sea, with implications for the respiration patterns in these shallow coastal systems. We applied cavity ring-down spectrometer measurements to continuously monitor carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) and methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) surface-water concentrations, covering the coastal archipelagos of Sweden and Finland and the open and deeper parts of the Northern Baltic Proper. This allowed us to (i) follow an upwelling event near the Swedish coast leading to elevated CO<sub>2</sub> and moderate CH<sub>4</sub> outgassing, and (ii) to estimate CH<sub>4</sub> sources and fluxes along the coast by investigating water column inventories and air-sea fluxes during a storm and an associated downwelling event. At the end of the heat wave, before the storm event, we found elevated CO<sub>2</sub> (1583 μatm) and CH<sub>4</sub> (70 nmol/L) concentrations. During the storm, a massive CO<sub>2</sub> sea-air flux of up to 274 mmol m<sup>–2</sup> d<sup>–1</sup> was observed. While water-column CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations were depleted during several hours of the storm, CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations remained elevated. Overall, we found a positive relationship between CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> wind-driven sea-air fluxes, however, the highest CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes were observed at low winds whereas highest CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes were during peak winds, suggesting different sources and processes controlling their fluxes besides wind. We applied a box-model approach to estimate the CH<sub>4</sub> supply needed to sustain these elevated CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations and the results suggest a large source flux of CH<sub>4</sub> to the water column of 2.5 mmol m<sup>–2</sup> d<sup>–1</sup>. These results are qualitatively supported by acoustic observations of vigorous and widespread outgassing from the sediments, with flares that could be traced throughout the water column penetrating the pycnocline and reaching the sea surface. The results suggest that the heat wave triggered CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes in the coastal zones that are comparable with maximum emission rates found in other hot spots, such as boreal and arctic lakes and wetlands. Further, the results suggest that heat waves are as important for CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> sea-air fluxes as the ice break up in spring.},
   keywords = {heat wave,Sea-air flux,Methane,Carbon Dioxide,shallow coastal areas},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00493},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2019.00493},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1757,
   author = {Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa and Arheimer, Berit and Donnelly, Chantal and Pechlivanidis, Ilias},
   title = {A regional parameter estimation scheme for a pan-European multi-basin model},
   journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
   volume = {6},
   pages = {90-111},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.04.002},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1668,
   author = {Hurrell, James W},
   title = {Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation},
   journal = {Science-AAAS-Weekly Paper Edition},
   volume = {269},
   number = {5224},
   pages = {676-679},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2136,
   author = {Hurrell, James W and Kushnir, Yochanan and Ottersen, Geir and Visbeck, Martin},
   title = {An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation},
   journal = {Geophysical Monograph-American Geophysical Union},
   volume = {134},
   pages = {1-36},
   ISSN = {0065-8448},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN3380,
   author = {Huseby, Siv},
   title = {Pelagic biology: bacterioplankton (in Swedish)},
   publisher = {The Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management and The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency},
   address = {Gothenburg, Sweden},
   series = {Havet 2016},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN3104,
   author = {Huseby, Siv and Wikner, Johan},
   title = {Bacterioplankton growth},
   number = {22-06-2021},
   url = {https://helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BSEFS-Bacterioplankton-growth-.pdf },
   year = {2019},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN3213,
   author = {Huss, Magnus and Lindmark, Max and Jacobson, Philip and van Dorst, Renee M. and Gårdmark, Anna},
   title = {Experimental evidence of gradual size-dependent shifts in body size and growth of fish in response to warming},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {25},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2285-2295},
   abstract = {Abstract A challenge facing ecologists trying to predict responses to climate change is the few recent analogous conditions to use for comparison. For example, negative relationships between ectotherm body size and temperature are common both across natural thermal gradients and in small-scale experiments. However, it is unknown if short-term body size responses are representative of long-term responses. Moreover, to understand population responses to warming, we must recognize that individual responses to temperature may vary over ontogeny. To enable predictions of how climate warming may affect natural populations, we therefore ask how body size and growth may shift in response to increased temperature over life history, and whether short- and long-term growth responses differ. We addressed these questions using a unique setup with multidecadal artificial heating of an enclosed coastal bay in the Baltic Sea and an adjacent reference area (both with unexploited populations), using before-after control-impact paired time-series analyses. We assembled individual growth trajectories of ~13,000 unique individuals of Eurasian perch and found that body growth increased substantially after warming, but the extent depended on body size: Only among small-bodied perch did growth increase with temperature. Moreover, the strength of this response gradually increased over the 24 year warming period. Our study offers a unique example of how warming can affect fish populations over multiple generations, resulting in gradual changes in body growth, varying as organisms develop. Although increased juvenile growth rates are in line with predictions of the temperature–size rule, the fact that a larger body size at age was maintained over life history contrasts to that same rule. Because the artificially heated area is a contemporary system mimicking a warmer sea, our findings can aid predictions of fish responses to further warming, taking into account that growth responses may vary both over an individual's life history and over time.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14637},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14637},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3000,
   author = {Huth, Radan and Kyselý, Jan and Pokorná, Lucie},
   title = {A GCM Simulation of Heat Waves, Dry Spells, and Their Relationships to Circulation},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {46},
   number = {1},
   pages = {29-60},
   abstract = {Heat waves and dry spells are analyzed (i) at eightstations in south Moravia (Czech Republic), (ii) inthe control ECHAM3 GCM run at the gridpoint closest tothe study area, and (iii) in the ECHAM3 GCM run fordoubled CO2 concentrations (scenario A) at thesame gridpoint (heat waves only). The GCM outputs arevalidated both against individual station data andareally representative values. In the control run, theheat waves are too long, appear later in the year,peak at higher temperatures and their numbers areunder- (over-) estimated in June and July (in August).The simulated dry spells are too long, and the annualcycle of their occurrence is distorted.Mid-tropospheric circulation, and heat waves and dryspells are linked much less tightly in the controlclimate than in the observed. Since mid-troposphericcirculation is simulated fairly successfully, wesuggest the hypothesis that either the air-masstransformation and local processes are too strong inthe model or the simulated advection is too weak. Inthe scenario A climate, the heat waves become a commonphenomenon: warming of 4.5 °C in summer(difference between scenario A and control climates)induces a five-fold increase in the frequency oftropical days and an immense enhancement of extremityof heat waves. The results of the study underline theneed for (i) a proper validation of the GCM outputbefore a climate impact study is conducted and (ii)translation of large-scale information from GCMs intolocal scales using downscaling and stochasticmodelling techniques in order to reduce GCMs' biases.},
   ISSN = {1573-1480},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005633925903},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005633925903},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2459,
   author = {Huthnance, John and Weisse, Ralf and Wahl, Thomas and Thomas, Helmuth and Pietrzak, Julie and Souza, Alejandro Jose and van Heteren, Sytze and Schmelzer, Natalija and van Beusekom, Justus and Colijn, Franciscus and Haigh, Ivan and Hjøllo, Solfrid and Holfort, Jürgen and Kent, Elizabeth C. and Kühn, Wilfried and Loewe, Peter and Lorkowski, Ina and Mork, Kjell Arne and Pätsch, Johannes and Quante, Markus and Salt, Lesley and Siddorn, John and Smyth, Tim and Sterl, Andreas and Woodworth, Philip},
   title = {Recent Change—North Sea},
   booktitle = {North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment},
   editor = {Quante, Markus and Colijn, Franciscus},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {85-136},
   abstract = {This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-39745-0},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_3},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2532,
   author = {Huttunen, Inese and Lehtonen, Heikki and Huttunen, Markus and Piirainen, Vanamo and Korppoo, Marie and Veijalainen, Noora and Viitasalo, Markku and Vehviläinen, Bertel},
   title = {Effects of climate change and agricultural adaptation on nutrient loading from Finnish catchments to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
   volume = {529},
   pages = {168-181},
   abstract = {Climate change is expected to increase annual and especially winter runoff, shorten the snow cover period and therefore increase both nutrient leaching from agricultural areas and natural background leaching in the Baltic Sea catchment. We estimated the effects of climate change and possible future scenarios of agricultural changes on the phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments. In the agricultural scenarios we assumed that the prices of agricultural products are among the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change, as they affect the level of fertilization and the production intensity and volume and, hence, the modeled changes in gross nutrient loading from agricultural land. Optimal adaptation may increase production while supporting appropriate use of fertilization, resulting in low nutrient balance in the fields. However, a less optimal adaptation may result in higher nutrient balance and increased leaching. The changes in nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea were predicted by taking into account the agricultural scenarios in a nutrient loading model for Finnish catchments (VEMALA), which simulates runoff, nutrient processes, leaching and transport on land, in rivers and in lakes. We thus integrated the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector, nutrient loading in fields, natural background loading, hydrology and nutrient transport and retention processes.},
   keywords = {Climate change
Nutrient loading
Baltic Sea
Agricultural scenarios
Water quality modeling
VEMALA},
   ISSN = {0048-9697},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.055},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715301133},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3336,
   author = {Huyben, D. and Sun, L. and Moccia, R. and Kiessling, A. and Dicksved, J. and Lundh, T.},
   title = {Dietary live yeast and increased water temperature influence the gut microbiota of rainbow trout},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Microbiology},
   volume = {124},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1377-1392},
   abstract = {Abstract Aims The objective was to determine the effects of dietary substitution of fishmeal (FM) with live yeast and increasing water temperature on the diversity and composition of gut microbiota in rainbow trout. Methods and Results Fish were fed either FM or yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and reared in water temperatures of either 11°C (cold) or 18°C (warm) for 6 weeks. Luminal content and mucosa were collected from the distal gut and the load, diversity and species abundance of yeast and bacteria were analysed using agar plating, MALDI-TOF and rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Yeast in the gut of fish fed FM were represented by S. cerevisiae, Rhodotorula spp. and Debaryomyces hansenii, while fish fed yeast contained 4–5 log higher CFU per g of yeast that were entirely represented by S. cerevisiae. For gut bacteria, sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq showed lower bacterial diversity and abundance of lactic acid bacteria, especially Lactobacillus, in fish reared in warm rather than cold water. Fish fed yeast had similar bacterial diversity and lower abundance of Leuconostocaceae and Photobacterium compared with fish fed FM. Conclusions Feeding live yeast mainly increased yeast load in the gut, while increased water temperature significantly altered the gut microbiota of rainbow trout in terms of bacterial diversity and abundance. Significance and Impact of the Study Live yeast can replace 40% of FM without disrupting bacteria communities in the gut of rainbow trout, while increased water temperature due to seasonal fluctuations and/or climate change may result in a gut dysbiosis that may jeopardize the health of farmed fish.},
   ISSN = {1364-5072},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jam.13738},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jam.13738},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2379,
   author = {Hyytiäinen, Kari and Bauer, Barbara and Bly Joyce, Kerstin and Ehrnsten, Eva and Eilola, Kari and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Norkko, Alf and Saraiva, Sofia and Tomczak, Maciej and Zandersen, Marianne},
   title = {Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Population Ecology},
   volume = {63},
   number = {1},
   pages = {61-74},
   abstract = {Abstract Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human-nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well-being” vs. “Fossil-fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well-being”-scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil-fuelled development”-scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long-term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.},
   ISSN = {1438-3896},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390X.12033},
   url = {https://esj-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/1438-390X.12033},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2712,
   author = {Hägg, Hanna Eriksson and Lyon, Steve W. and Wällstedt, Teresia and Mörth, Carl-Magnus and Claremar, Björn and Humborg, Christoph},
   title = {Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {43},
   number = {3},
   pages = {337-351},
   abstract = {Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0416-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0416-4},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2533,
   author = {Hällfors, Heidi and Backer, Hermanni and Leppänen, Juha-Markku and Hällfors, Seija and Hällfors, Guy and Kuosa, Harri},
   title = {The northern Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities in 1903–1911 and 1993–2005: a comparison of historical and modern species data},
   journal = {Hydrobiologia},
   volume = {707},
   number = {1},
   pages = {109-133},
   abstract = {Despite over 100 years of phytoplankton research in the Baltic Sea, little is known about how the species composition has changed during this period, characterised by severe anthropogenic eutrophication. We investigated the phytoplankton communities in the northern Baltic Sea using data from 1903 to 1911 and 1993 to 2005; to minimise effects of methodological differences we focused on occurrence frequencies. We found that the historical and modern communities differed regarding both species composition and the relative importance of taxonomical groups. The most obvious differences were the increase of dinoflagellates and decrease in the diatom to dinoflagellate ratio in all seasons. Contrary to the widely held view that cyanophytes have gained significance, our results indicate that in terms of occurrence the group has not increased in summer, and has lost ground in both spring and autumn. Several shifts in the occurrence frequency and seasonality of individual taxa transpired. Examining our results in relation to environmental conditions we found that some changes may be symptomatic of climate change related pressures. However, statistical analyses revealed that an undefined ‘period effect’ was the most important factor separating the historical and modern phytoplankton communities. We interpret this ‘period effect’ as evidence for the direct and/or indirect influence of eutrophication.},
   ISSN = {1573-5117},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1414-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1414-4},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1543,
   author = {Hänninen, Jari and Vuorinen, Ilppo and Hjelt, Pekka},
   title = {Climatic factors in the Atlantic control the oceanographic and ecological changes in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {45},
   number = {3},
   pages = {703-710},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2000.45.3.0703},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2534,
   author = {Hänninen, Jari and Vuorinen, Ilppo and Rajasilta, Marjut and Reid, Philip C.},
   title = {Response of the Baltic and North Seas to river runoff from the Baltic watershed – Physical and biological changes},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {138},
   pages = {91-104},
   abstract = {Selected Baltic Sea watershed River Runoff (BSRR) events during 1970–2000 were used as predictor in Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLIMMIX) for evidence of simultaneous changes/chain of events (including possible time lags) in some chemical, physical and biological variables in the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems. Our aim was to explore for climatic-based explanation for ecological regime shifts that were documented semi-simultaneously in both ecosystems. Certain similarities were identified in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea salinity, oxygen concentration, temperature and phyto- and zooplankton parameters. These findings suggest that BSRR events which originate in the Baltic Sea catchment area modify and contribute to large scale ecosystem changes not only in the Baltic Sea, but also in the adjacent parts of the North Sea. However, the Baltic Sea inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of physical and biological parameters are driven by direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a relatively short lag. In contrast, such changes in the North Sea are influenced by both local and direct atmospheric forcing, typically with a longer lag than in the Baltic, and a more regional, indirect forcing from changes in the North Atlantic. We suggest that this interactive system partially is behind large scale ecosystem regime shifts found in both Seas. During our study period two such shifts have been identified independently from us in a study earlier in the Southern and Central Baltic in 1980s and 1990s and a later one in 2001/2002 in the North Sea. As a post hoc test we compared the 0+ year class strength of the North Sea herring with BSRR intensity, and found evidence for higher herring production in high BSRR periods, which further corroborates the idea of a remote effect from the large watershed area of the Baltic. Regime shifts as well as their semi-synchronous appearance in two neighbouring sea areas could be identified. GLIMMIX models provide opportunities for determining and understanding the mechanisms behind marine ecosystem long-term and large-scale changes. Many studies have shown the importance of climatic factors (identified by the air pressure index, North Atlantic Oscillation) to the physical and biological changes over the North Atlantic. Our study enlarges the areal and temporal scope of these observations, and provides further support and explanation for climate as the pacemaker for marine ecological changes.},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.09.001},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661115001901},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2118,
   author = {Härkönen, Tero and Dietz, Rune and Reijnders, Peter and Teilmann, Jonas and Harding, Karin and Hall, Ailsa and Brasseur, Sophie and Siebert, Ursula and Goodman, Simon J and Jepson, Paul D},
   title = {The 1988 and 2002 phocine distemper virus epidemics in European harbour seals},
   journal = {Diseases of Aquatic Organisms},
   volume = {68},
   number = {2},
   pages = {115-130},
   ISSN = {0177-5103},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/dao068115},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2604,
   author = {Härkönen, Tero and Galatius, Anders and Olsen, Morten Tange and Ahola, Markus and Hårding, Karin and Karlsson, Olle and Kunnasranta, Mervi and Avellan, Lena and Kääriä, Petra and Pyhälä, Minna and Rowe, Owen},
   title = {Population trends and abundance of seals},
   series = {HELCOM core indicator report},
   pages = {34},
   url = {https://www.helcom.fi/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Population-trends-and-abundance-of-seals-HELCOM-core-indicator-2018.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2453,
   author = {Härkönen, Tero and Isakson, Erik},
   title = {Status of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Baltic proper},
   journal = {NAMMCO Scientific Publications},
   volume = {8},
   pages = {71-76},
   abstract = {The small population of harbour seals in the Baltic proper descend from seals that entered into the Baltic some 8,000 years ago. They form a genetically separate population with private alleles not present elsewhere. They were hunted close to extinction in the beginning of the 20th century and experienced a severe bottle-neck with perhaps only ten reproductive females in the 1970s. Protective measures and reduction of xenobiotic substances have improved the situation, and the hauled-out moulting population size was 588 in 2008, and about 100 pups have been born annually during the past few years. The protective measures in the form of banned hunting and establishment of protected areas will suffice to allow the population to grow, but the population will not reach favourable conservation status within foreseeable future.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.7557/3.2673},
   url = {https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/NAMMCOSP/article/view/2673},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2877,
   author = {Härkönen, Tero and Jüssi, Mart and Jüssi, Ivar and Verevkin, Michail and Dmitrieva, Lilia and Helle, Eero and Sagitov, Roustam and Harding, Karin C.},
   title = {Seasonal Activity Budget of Adult Baltic Ringed Seals},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {3},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e2006},
   abstract = {Although ringed seals are important components in oceanic and fresh water ecosystems at high latitudes, little is known about how they exploit these harsh environments. Seasonal activity and diving behaviour of 19 adult Baltic ringed seals were studied by satellite telemetry. We elaborated an activity budget for ten months of the year, extending over the period from moult to the breeding season. Seals from three main regions showed explicit site fidelity and the distributions of animals tagged from different areas did not overlap, suggesting separate stocks. Both the mean duration and the mean depth of dives peaked in June and July. Seals spent 70% (females) to 85% (males) of their time diving in June and July which decreased to 50% in late autumn. Less than one percent of dives exceeded 10 min in females, while 10% of male dives lasted longer than 10 min in June to September. Less than one percent of dives lasted for more than 25 min. Both females and males were most active during day time and hauled out predominantly during the night. Activity patterns during the summer are suggested to be correlated to energy accumulation and prey availability. The information on seasonal activity budget is crucial for developing population energetic models where interactions between ringed seals and other trophic levels can be evaluated.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0002006},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0002006},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2117,
   author = {Härkönen, Tero and Stenman, Olavi and Jüssi, Mart and Jüssi, Ivar and Sagitov, Roustam and Verevkin, Michail},
   title = {Population size and distribution of the Baltic ringed seal ( Phoca hispida botnica )},
   journal = {NAMMCO Scientific Publications},
   volume = {1},
   number = {0},
   abstract = {The study reviews earlier investigations on the distribution and abundance of ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica) in the Baltic and presents the first statistically robust results for the entire area. A critical review of earlier counts of ringed seals from the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland reveals grossly exaggerated population estimates in these regions. This is confirmed by results from the first comprehensive surveys in the entire area carried out during 1994-1996. The estimated hauled-out Baltic population in 1996 was about 5,510 ± 42% (± 95% confidence interval). Of thisestimate 3,945 ± 1,732 (70%) were in the Gulf of Bothnia, 1,407 ± 590 (25%) in the Gulf of Riga and about 150 (5%) in the Gulf of Finland. Numbers in the Gulf of Bothnia have increased since 1988, but there are no data on trends in other areas, although numbers are low and half the local population in the Gulf of Finland may have died in a mass mortality in the autumn of 1991.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.7557/3.2986},
   url = {https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/NAMMCOSP/article/view/2986},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3211,
   author = {Härmä, Meri and Lappalainen, Antti and Urho, Lauri},
   title = {Reproduction areas of roach (Rutilus rutilus) in the northern Baltic Sea: potential effects of climate change},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {65},
   number = {12},
   pages = {2678-2688},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f08-167},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/F08-167 %X The roach (Rutilus rutilus) is a common freshwater fish species in the brackish coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. In this study, surveys of roach larvae were carried out at reed-belt shores encompassing the entire archipelago zone in the northwestern Gulf of Finland. A logistic regression model was constructed and then used to spatially predict and map potential roach reproduction areas using a geographic information system (GIS). The results indicate that low spring salinity (<4‰) is the most important factor determining the success of roach reproduction. Reed-belt shores in the inner archipelago with large freshwater inputs in the spring constitute the key reproduction areas. Spring runoff peaks caused by melting snow together with the effects of ice cover on the spreading of freshwater runoff enable roach to reproduce relatively far from river mouths. Nevertheless, 68% of the reed-belt shores in the study area are presently beyond the 4‰ salinity limit and thus unsuitable for reproduction. In the future, climate change is predicted to reduce the salinity of the Baltic Sea, but the potential climate change impacts on roach are partly contradictory. The most likely outcome, however, is a spatial increase in the extent of roach reproduction areas in the northern Baltic Sea.},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN1670,
   author = {Håkansson, B G and Broman, B and Dahlin, H},
   title = {The flow of water and salt in the Sound during the Baltic major inflow event in January 1993},
   volume = {57},
   pages = {26},
   year = {1993},
   type = {Audiovisual Material}
}

@techreport{RN1753,
   author = {Höglund, Anders and Meier, H. E. Markus and Broman, Barry and Kriezi, Ekaterini},
   title = {Validation and correction of regionalised ERA-40 wind fields over the Baltic Sea using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model RCA3. 0},
   institution = {Rap. Oceanogr.},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2127,
   author = {Höglund, Anders and Pemberton, Per and Hordoir, Robinson and Schimanke, Semjon},
   title = {Ice conditions for maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea in future climate},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {22},
   pages = {245-265},
   note = {2020-04-29T09:59:28.936+02:00},
   keywords = {Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser},
   ISSN = {12396095 (ISSN)
17972469 (EISSN)},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4196},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2733,
   author = {Høyer, Jacob L. and Karagali, Ioanna},
   title = {Sea Surface Temperature Climate Data Record for the North Sea and Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {29},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2529-2541},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0663.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/29/7/jcli-d-15-0663.1.xml},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1544,
   author = {Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Influence of temperature and precipitation on decadal Baltic Sea level variations in the 20th century},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {1},
   pages = {141-153},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00157.x},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2722,
   author = {Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Trends in the amplitude of Baltic Sea level annual cycle},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {60},
   number = {1},
   pages = {154-164},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00277.x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00277.x},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2723,
   author = {Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Statistical Analysis of the Acceleration of Baltic Mean Sea-Level Rise, 1900–2012},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {125},
   abstract = {We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1) fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2) a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3) a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level. The estimation methods (1) and (2) prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration. The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the twentieth century. The melting of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level. This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an almost statistically significant acceleration. The very recent decadal rates of sea-level rise are high in the context of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, but they are not the highest rates observed over this period.},
   keywords = {Baltic-Sea,North Sea,sea-level,Acceleration,glacial isostatic adjustment},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00125},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2016.00125},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2361,
   author = {Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo and Soomere, Tarmo and Madsen, Kristine S. and Johansson, Milla and Suursaar, Ülo},
   title = {Recent Change—Sea Level and Wind Waves},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {155-185},
   abstract = {This chapter describes observed changes in sea level and wind waves in the Baltic Sea basin over the past 200 years and the main climate drivers of this change. The datasets available for studying these are described in detail. Recent climate change and land uplift are causing changes in sea level. Relative sea level is falling by 8.2 mm year−1 in the Gulf of Bothnia and slightly rising in parts of the southern Baltic Sea. Absolute sea level (ASL) is rising by 1.3–1.8 mm year−1, which is within the range of recent global estimates. The 30-year trends of Baltic Sea tide gaugeTide gaugerecords tend to increase, but similar or even slightly higher rates were observed around 1900 and 1950. Sea level in the Baltic Sea shows higher values during winter and lower values during spring and this seasonal amplitude increased between 1800 and 2000. The intensity of storm surges (extreme sea levels) may have increased in recent decades in some parts of the Baltic Sea. This may be linked to a long-term shift in storm tracks.},
   ISBN = {https://doi.org/978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_9},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inbook{RN2458,
   author = {Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo and von Storch, Hans},
   title = {The Challenge of Baltic Sea Level Change},
   booktitle = {Coastline Changes of the Baltic Sea from South to East: Past and Future Projection},
   editor = {Harff, Jan and Furmańczyk, Kazimierz and von Storch, Hans},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {37-54},
   abstract = {Baltic Sea level variability is caused by different climatic and geological factors that render their understanding more difficult than for other areas of the Earth. Yet this understanding is crucial to predict with reliability the sea-level rise in the Baltic Sea that will be brought about by anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate this complexity by a few, in our opinion, important questions that ultimately are related to the estimation of long-term trends in the presence of land crust movements, to the heterogeneity of the Baltic sea-level response to atmospheric forcing, and the difficulty of identifying a sea-level rise acceleration in the observed records.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-49894-2},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49894-2_3},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN3164,
   author = {ICES},
   title = {Baltic Sea Ecosystem - Fisheries Overview},
   journal = {Report of the ICES Advisory Committee},
   volume = {ICES Advice 2019, section 4.2},
   pages = {29pp},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.5566},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2620,
   author = {ICES},
   title = {Working Group on Marine Mammal Ecology (WGMME)},
   type = {ICES Scientific Reports, Volume 2 | Issue 39},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5975},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3175,
   author = {Illing, Björn and Moyano, Marta and Hufnagl, Marc and Peck, Myron A.},
   title = {Projected habitat loss for Atlantic herring in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Marine Environmental Research},
   volume = {113},
   pages = {164-173},
   abstract = {Projected, climate-driven changes in rainfall patterns are expected to alter the salinity (S) of estuaries and larger brackish water bodies, such as the Baltic Sea. Some marine fish larvae are potentially more sensitive to low salinity than older stages, hence we compared the low salinity tolerance of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae at the individual and population levels including four populations in the North and Baltic Seas. Acute low salinity tolerance was similar (S = 1.9–2.7) across populations and increased with increasing body size. Based on this physiological threshold and a regionally down-scaled climate model, spawning habitats in the northern and eastern Baltic Sea are projected to be largely unsuitable for herring by 2100. Although adaptive mechanisms may attenuate the effect in some species, the limited physiological tolerance of fish larvae will remain an important bottleneck for the persistence of marine fish populations in brackish waters undergoing climate-driven freshening.},
   keywords = {Climate change
Baltic Sea
Salinity
Adaptation
Atlantic herring},
   ISSN = {0141-1136},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2015.12.007},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113615300878},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN2639,
   author = {Ilmatieteen laitos, .},
   title = {Jäätalvi Itämerellä},
   publisher = {Finnish Meteorological Institute},
   number = {10.12.2020},
   DOI = {https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ice-season-in-the-baltic-sea},
   url = {https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/jaatalvi-itamerella},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@techreport{RN3317,
   author = {IMO, .},
   title = {MEPC 72/17 - Report of the Marine Environment Protection Committee on its seventy-second session},
   institution = {International Maritime Organization},
   url = {http://www.crs.hr/Portals/0/docs/eng/imo_iacs_eu/imo/mepc_reports/MEPC%2072%20-%20Report.pdf?ver=2018-06-29-140230-617},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@book{RN1758,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
   address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/syr/},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN3398,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
   address = {Cambridge},
   ISBN = {978 0521 88009-1 Hardback},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN2631,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge},
   abstract = {This Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders at international, national and local level, in government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides:An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate changeA more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever beforeNew dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomenaExtensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projectionsA detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continentA new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world},
   ISBN = {9781107057999},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/climate-change-2013-the-physical-science-basis/BE9453E500DEF3640B383BADDC332C3E},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN2677,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
   abstract = {This Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard scientific reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students and researchers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology and atmospheric chemistry. It provides invaluable material for decision makers and stakeholders at international, national and local level, in government, businesses, and NGOs. This volume provides:An authoritative and unbiased overview of the physical science basis of climate changeA more extensive assessment of changes observed throughout the climate system than ever beforeNew dedicated chapters on sea-level change, biogeochemical cycles, clouds and aerosols, and regional climate phenomenaExtensive coverage of model projections, both near-term and long-term climate projectionsA detailed assessment of climate change observations, modelling, and attribution for every continentA new comprehensive atlas of global and regional climate projections for 35 regions of the world},
   pages = {151},
   ISBN = {978-92-9169-143-2},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@inbook{RN2725,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Observations: Atmosphere and Surface},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, Change},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge},
   pages = {159-254},
   abstract = {Executive SummaryThe evidence of climate change from observations of the atmosphere and surface has grown significantly during recent years. At the same time new improved ways of characterizing and quantifying uncertainty have highlighted the challenges that remain for developing long-term global and regional climate quality data records. Currently, the observations of the atmosphere and surface indicate the following changes:Atmospheric CompositionIt is certain that atmospheric burdens of the well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) targeted by the Kyoto Protocol increased from 2005 to 2011. The atmospheric abundance of carbon dioxide (CO2) was 390.5 ppm (390.3 to 390.7) in 2011; this is 40% greater than in 1750. Atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) was 324.2 ppb (324.0 to 324.4) in 2011 and has increased by 20% since 1750. Average annual increases in CO2 and N2O from 2005 to 2011 are comparable to those observed from 1996 to 2005. Atmospheric methane (CH4) was 1803.2 ppb (1801.2 to 1805.2) in 2011; this is 150% greater than before 1750. CH4 began increasing in 2007 after remaining nearly constant from 1999 to 2006. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) all continue to increase relatively rapidly, but their contributions to radiative forcing are less than 1% of the total by well-mixed GHGs.},
   ISBN = {9781107057999},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/climate-change-2013-the-physical-science-basis/observations-atmosphere-and-surface/61A8F156E8720E337BC2B161B005F0B8},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@inbook{RN2632,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Technical Summary},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge},
   pages = {31-116},
   abstract = {TS.1 IntroductionClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis is the contribution of Working Group I (WGI) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus on those elements that are relevant to understand past, document current and project future climate change. The assessment builds on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and the recent Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) and is presented in 14 chapters and 3 annexes. The chapters cover direct and proxy observations of changes in all components of the climate system; assess the current knowledge of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system components, which determine the sensitivity and response of the system to changes in forcing; and quantify the link between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing (RF), and the consequent detection and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on model simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The Report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter. Regional climate change information is presented in the form of an Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections (Annex I). This is complemented by Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables and Annex III: Glossary.},
   ISBN = {9781107057999},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.005},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/climate-change-2013-the-physical-science-basis/technical-summary/10E03E078830604105FFA9EC99840672},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@book{RN2621,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems},
   pages = {906},
   ISBN = {978-92-9169-154-8},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{RN2664,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book}
}

@inbook{RN2006,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Summary for Policymakers},
   booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
   editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@book{RN3408,
   author = {IPCC},
   title = {Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth 
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge},
   url = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN1557,
   author = {Irannezhad, M and Chen, Deliang and Kløve, B},
   title = {Interannual variations and trends in surface air temperature in Finland in relation to atmospheric circulation patterns, 1961–2011},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {35},
   number = {10},
   pages = {3078-3092},
   abstract = {Annual and seasonal variations in surface air temperature (SAT) during the period 1961–2011 were analysed using daily mean temperature data sets from regular grid points (10 × 10 km2) throughout Finland. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test was used to detect significant historical trends in SAT and Spearman's correlation coefficient (ρ) to test the relationships between SAT patterns and various atmospheric circulation patterns over the northern hemisphere. The results showed that mean annual SAT in Finland increased (p < 0.05) by 0.4 ± 0.2 °C per decade during the study period and that the SAT was significantly (ρ = 0.58, p < 0.05) positively correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. However, there were spatial differences within Finland for both the trends and relationships with the atmospheric circulation. Analysis of seasonal mean SAT identified significant (p < 0.05) warming trends for both spring (by 0.4 ± 0.2 °C per decade) and summer (by 0.3 ± 0.2 °C per decade). Winter and spring mean SATs were most strongly (p < 0.05) correlated with the AO index (ρ = 0.72 and 0.42, respectively), while the most significant teleconnection pattern for mean SAT in summer was the East Atlantic (EA) pattern (ρ = 0.43, p < 0.05); and in autumn the EA/West Russia (WR) pattern (ρ = −0.59, p < 0.05). These results provide a detailed spatial picture of climate warming in Finland in recent decades and reveal that interannual variation of the SAT in Finland is closely linked with a number of atmospheric circulation patterns, not just the AO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Annual and cold-season SAT are mainly influenced by the AO and NAO, whereas the EA, EA/WR, Scandinavia (SCA) and West Pacific (WP) patterns play an important role for warm-season SAT.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4193},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2841,
   author = {Irannezhad, M. and Ronkanen, A.-K. and Kløve, B.},
   title = {Wintertime climate factors controlling snow resource decline in Finland},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {36},
   number = {1},
   pages = {110-131},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT Numerous studies have reported significant declines in snow resources in Finland and elsewhere during the 20th century. To identify the main climate factors controlling these declines in Finland, this study evaluated long-term variations and trends in wintertime climate, snowpack hydrological processes (SHPs) and continuous snow cover duration (CSCD), and their links to atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs). Analyses were conducted using observed daily climatological time series and simulated SHPs at three stations in southern (Kaisaniemi), central (Kajaani) and northern (Sodankylä) Finland with about 100 years of data. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used to detect significant trends, the Pearson's coefficient (r) to identify relationships within snow-related variables, and Spearman's coefficient (ρ) to measure correlations of these variables with ACPs. Sensitivity of the snow-related variables with projected changes in temperature and precipitation was assessed. The results showed increases in wintertime temperature only at Kaisaniemi, but decreases in wintertime precipitation, snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE) and shorter CSCD at all stations. In general, variations in wintertime temperature were positively associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, wintertime precipitation showed significant relationships with the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), AO and West Pacific (WP) patterns in southern, central and northern Finland, respectively. SHPs and CSCD in southern Finland were associated with the same ACP influencing wintertime temperature (AO), and those in central and northern areas with the patterns influencing wintertime precipitation (EA, EA/WR and AO). Thus, declines in snow resources in Finland are mainly the result of reductions in snowfall owing to both wintertime warming and decreased precipitation at Kaisaniemi, while only to decreases in wintertime precipitation at Kajaani and Sodankylä stations. However, increase in precipitation (up to 30%) plays an important role in offsetting effects of temperature warming (up to 4 °C) on snow resource decline in Finland.},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4332},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4332},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1977,
   author = {Irby, I. D. and Friedrichs, M. A. M. and Da, F. and Hinson, K. E.},
   title = {The competing impacts of climate change and nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {15},
   number = {9},
   pages = {2649-2668},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2649-2018},
   url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/2649/2018/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2137,
   author = {Isaev, A. V. and Eremina, T. R. and Ryabchenko, V. A. and Savchuk, O. P.},
   title = {Model estimates of the impact of bioirrigation activity of Marenzelleria spp. on the Gulf of Finland ecosystem in a changing climate},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {171},
   pages = {81-88},
   abstract = {Drastic changes have occurred in the Eastern Gulf of Finland ecosystem after recent invasion and establishment of polychaete Marenzelleria spp. Possible mechanisms of these changes are explored with the help of three-dimensional ecosystem model SPBEM. Relative significance of bioirrigation activity is studied by comparison of two climate change scenario simulations, which include or disregard Marenzelleria effects. The novel results obtained with this approach demonstrate that on a system level biogeochemical consequences of both implemented climate changes scenario and polychaete activity are equivalent to a weakening of “vicious circle” of the Baltic Sea eutrophication. The eutrophication-mitigating effects of the Marenzelleria invasion into the Eastern Gulf of Finland, revealed by the long-term field measurements, are explained by simulation-based considerations.},
   keywords = {Biogeochemical cycles
Gulf of Finland
Modelling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.08.005},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796316302408},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2535,
   author = {Ito, Maysa and Scotti, Marco and Franz, Markus and Barboza, Francisco R. and Buchholz, Björn and Zimmer, Martin and Guy-Haim, Tamar and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Effects of temperature on carbon circulation in macroalgal food webs are mediated by herbivores},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {166},
   number = {12},
   pages = {158},
   abstract = {Warming is one of the most dramatic aspects of climate change and threatens future ecosystem functioning. It may alter primary productivity and thus jeopardize carbon sequestration, a crucial ecosystem service provided by coastal environments. Fucus vesiculosus is an important canopy-forming macroalga in the Baltic Sea, and its main consumer is Idotea balthica. The objective of this study is to understand how temperature impacts a simplified food web composed of macroalgae and herbivores to quantify the effect on organic carbon storage. The organisms were exposed to a temperature gradient from 5 to 25 °C. We measured and modeled primary production, respiration, growth and epiphytic load on the surface of Fucus and respiration, growth and egestion of Idotea. The results show that temperature affects physiological responses of Fucus and Idotea separately. However, Idotea proved more sensitive to increasing temperatures than the primary producers. The lag between the collapse of the grazer and the decline of Fucus and epiphytes above 20 °C allows an increase of carbon storage of the primary productivity at higher temperatures. Therefore, along the temperature gradient, the simplified food web stores carbon in a non-monotonic way (reaching minimum at 20 °C). Our work stresses the need of considering the combined metabolic performance of all organisms for sound predictions on carbon circulation in food webs.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-019-3596-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-019-3596-z},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3359,
   author = {IUCN, .},
   title = {Report: Blue Infrastructure Finance, where all win},
   publisher = {International Union for Conservation of Nature},
   number = {22.07.2021},
   url = {https://www.iucn.org/news/marine-and-polar/202003/report-blue-infrastructure-finance-where-all-win},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{RN3338,
   author = {Ivanauskas, E. and Razinkovas-Baziukas, A.},
   title = {Mapping and assessing commercial fisheries services in the Lithuanian part of the Curonian Lagoon},
   journal = {Submitted to Acta Ichthyologica Et Piscatoria},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2980,
   author = {Ivanov, V.A. and Belokopytov, V.N.},
   title = {Oceanography of the Black Sea},
   publisher = {National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Marine Hydrophysical Institute, ECOSY-Gidrofizika},
   address = {Sevastopol, Ukraine},
   note = {read},
   pages = {210},
   ISBN = {978-966-022-6165-5},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2261,
   author = {Jaagus, J. and Sepp, M. and Tamm, T. and Järvet, A. and Mõisja, K.},
   title = {Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {963-976},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-963-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/963/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1558,
   author = {Jaagus, Jaak},
   title = {Trends in sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast during the period 1949/1950-2003/2004 and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {11},
   pages = {169-183},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1556,
   author = {Jaagus, Jaak},
   title = {Regionalisation of the precipitation pattern in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation.},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {14},
   pages = {31-44},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2138,
   author = {Jaagus, Jaak and Briede, Agrita and Rimkus, Egidijus and Remm, Kalle},
   title = {Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 1951–2010},
   journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
   volume = {118},
   number = {1},
   pages = {57-68},
   abstract = {Spatial distribution and trends in mean and absolute maximum and minimum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range were analysed at 47 stations in the eastern Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) during 1951–2010. Dependence of the studied variables on geographical factors (latitude, the Baltic Sea, land elevation) is discussed. Statistically significant increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were detected for March, April, July, August and annual values. At the majority of stations, the increase was detected also in February and May in case of maximum temperature and in January and May in case of minimum temperature. Warming was slightly higher in the northern part of the study area, i.e. in Estonia. Trends in the diurnal temperature range differ seasonally. The highest increasing trend revealed in April and, at some stations, also in May, July and August. Negative and mostly insignificant changes have occurred in January, February, March and June. The annual temperature range has not changed.},
   ISSN = {1434-4483},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1041-7},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1041-7},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2880,
   author = {Jaagus, Jaak and Briede, Agrita and Rimkus, Egidijus and Sepp, Mait},
   title = {Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966–2015},
   journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
   volume = {131},
   number = {1},
   pages = {433-443},
   abstract = {The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966–2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.},
   ISSN = {1434-4483},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1990-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1990-8},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1559,
   author = {Jaagus, Jaak and Suursaar, Ülo},
   title = {Long-term storminess and sea level variations on the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences},
   volume = {62},
   pages = {73-92},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3176/earth.2013.07},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2874,
   author = {Jackson, L. C. and Kahana, R. and Graham, T. and Ringer, M. A. and Woollings, T. and Mecking, J. V. and Wood, R. A.},
   title = {Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {45},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3299-3316},
   abstract = {The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1760,
   author = {Jacob, D},
   title = {A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin},
   journal = {Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics},
   volume = {77},
   number = {1-4},
   pages = {61-73},
   abstract = {The annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the
Baltic Sea area has been studied using the global climate model
ECHAM4/T106 and the regional climate model REMO for three experiments
covering a time period of 10 years each. To address the capability of
REMO to simulate realistically the water budget over the Baltic Sea
reanalyses data (so-called perfect boundaries) were applied as lateral
boundary conditions. The validation against observations shows that the
results agree rather well. However not all components of the
hydrological cycle are observed, therefore only some of them could be
compared to the simulation results. A clear dependence of the annual
cycle of precipitation from the horizontal resolution was found in the
experiments. Until now it is still unclear which processes are
responsible for this. Further research will help to identify the
sensitive physical processes involved in the water budget and their
interactions.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s007030170017},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1914,
   author = {Jacob, D. and Podzun, R.},
   title = {Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO},
   journal = {Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics},
   volume = {63},
   number = {1},
   pages = {119-129},
   abstract = {A new regional atmospheric model was set up in a joint effort by DKRZ (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum), DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst), GKSS (Forschungszentrum Geesthacht) at the MPI (Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie). This model, called REMO (REgional MOdel) can be used in the weather forecast mode as well as in the climate mode. It is based on the Europa-Model (EM), the main weather forecast model of the new numerical weather prediction system of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. In addition to the physical parameterizations implemented in the EM, REMO has the possibility of using the same physics as the global climate model (MPI) into which it is nested to assess the scale dependence of physical parameterizations within the same dynamical framework.},
   ISSN = {1436-5065},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/bf01025368},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01025368},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2140,
   author = {Jacob, Daniel J. and Winner, Darrell A.},
   title = {Effect of climate change on air quality},
   journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
   volume = {43},
   number = {1},
   pages = {51-63},
   abstract = {Air quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM–CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1–10ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM–CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by ±0.1–1μgm−3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.},
   keywords = {Climate change
Air quality
Air pollution meteorology
Ozone
Particulate matter
Mercury},
   ISSN = {1352-2310},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231008008571},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2139,
   author = {Jacob, Daniela and Kotova, Lola and Teichmann, Claas and Sobolowski, Stefan P. and Vautard, Robert and Donnelly, Chantal and Koutroulis, Aristeidis G. and Grillakis, Manolis G. and Tsanis, Ioannis K. and Damm, Andrea and Sakalli, Abdulla and van Vliet, Michelle T. H.},
   title = {Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming},
   journal = {Earth's Future},
   volume = {6},
   number = {2},
   pages = {264-285},
   abstract = {Abstract The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.},
   ISSN = {2328-4277},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000710},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017EF000710},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1761,
   author = {Jacob, Daniela and Petersen, Juliane and Eggert, Bastian and Alias, Antoinette and Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Braun, Alain and Colette, Augustin and Déqué, Michel and Georgievski, Goran and Georgopoulou, Elena and Gobiet, Andreas and Menut, Laurent and Nikulin, Grigory and Haensler, Andreas and Hempelmann, Nils and Jones, Colin and Keuler, Klaus and Kovats, Sari and Kröner, Nico and Kotlarski, Sven and Kriegsmann, Arne and Martin, Eric and Meijgaard, Erik van and Moseley, Christopher and Pfeifer, Susanne and Preuschmann, Swantje and Radermacher, Christine and Radtke, Kai and Rechid, Diana and Rounsevell, Mark and Samuelsson, Patrick and Somot, Samuel and Soussana, Jean-Francois and Teichmann, Claas and Valentini, Riccardo and Vautard, Robert and Weber, Björn and Yiou, Pascal},
   title = {EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research},
   journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
   volume = {14},
   pages = {563-578},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3318,
   author = {Jacobsen, P. B. },
   title = {State of the Tourism Industry in the Baltic Sea Region - 2018 Edition},
   institution = {Baltic Sea Tourism Center (BSTC)},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN2265,
   author = {Jakacki, J. and Meler, S.},
   title = {An Evaluation and Implementation of the Regional Coupled Ice-Ocean Model of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics Discussions},
   volume = {2017},
   pages = {1-47},
   note = {ESDD},
   ISSN = {2190-4995},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-35},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2017-35/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2734,
   author = {Jakimavičius, Darius and Kriaučiūnienė, Jūratė and Šarauskienė, Diana},
   title = {Impact of climate change on the Curonian Lagoon water balance components, salinity and water temperature in the 21st century},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {60},
   number = {3},
   pages = {378-389},
   abstract = {Summary The Curonian Lagoon is a shallow water body connected to the Baltic Sea by a narrow navigable strait, which enables an exchange of water of different salinity. The projected climate change together with the peculiarities of mixing water will undoubtedly alter hydrological regime of this lagoon. The study uses three climate model outputs under four RCP scenarios, four sea level rise scenarios and hydrological modelling in order to project the extent to which water balance components, salinity and temperature may change in the future. In order to simulate river inflow, the Nemunas River hydrological model was created using HBV software. In general, the changes of the lagoon water balance components, salinity and temperature are expected to be more significant in 2081–2100 than in 2016–2035. It was estimated that in the reference period (1986–2005) the river inflow was 22.1km3, inflow from the sea was 6.8km3, salinity (at Juodkrantė) was 1.2ppt and average water temperature of the lagoon was 9.2°C. It was projected that in 2081–2100 the river inflow may change from 22.1km3 (RCP2.6) to 15.9km3 (RCP8.5), whereas inflow from the sea is expected to vary from 8.5km3 (RCP2.6) to 11.0km3 (RCP8.5). The lagoon salinity at Juodkrantė is likely to grow from 1.4ppt (RCP2.6) to 2.6ppt (RCP8.5) by the end of the century due to global sea level rise and river inflow decrease. The lagoon water temperature is projected to increase by 2–6°C by the year 2100.},
   keywords = {Curonian Lagoon
RCP scenarios
HBV modelling software
Water salinity
Water temperature},
   ISSN = {0078-3234},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2018.02.003},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0078323418300356},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1666,
   author = {Jakobsen, Fl},
   title = {The major inflow to the Baltic Sea during January 1993},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {6},
   number = {3},
   pages = {227-240},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0924-7963(94)00025-7},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1873,
   author = {Jakobsen, Hans H and Markager, Stiig},
   title = {Carbon‐to‐chlorophyll ratio for phytoplankton in temperate coastal waters: Seasonal patterns and relationship to nutrients},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {61},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1853-1868},
   ISSN = {1939-5590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10338},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2267,
   author = {Jakobson, L. and Jakobson, E. and Post, P. and Jaagus, J.},
   title = {Atmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regions},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1019-1030},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1019-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/1019/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2336,
   author = {Jakobsson, M. and Stranne, C. and O'Regan, M. and Greenwood, S. L. and Gustafsson, B. and Humborg, C. and Weidner, E.},
   title = {Bathymetric properties of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ocean Science},
   volume = {15},
   number = {4},
   pages = {905-924},
   note = {OS
https://os.copernicus.org/articles/15/905/2019/os-15-905-2019.pdf},
   ISSN = {1812-0792},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-905-2019},
   url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/15/905/2019/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2912,
   author = {Jakobsson, Martin and Long, Antony and Ingólfsson, Ólafur and Kjær, Kurt H. and Spielhagen, Robert F.},
   title = {New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling},
   journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
   volume = {29},
   number = {25},
   pages = {3349-3358},
   abstract = {Terrestrial and marine geological archives in the Arctic contain information on environmental change through Quaternary interglacial–glacial cycles. The Arctic Palaeoclimate and its Extremes (APEX) scientific network aims to better understand the magnitude and frequency of past Arctic climate variability, with focus on the “extreme” versus the “normal” conditions of the climate system. One important motivation for studying the amplitude of past natural environmental changes in the Arctic is to better understand the role of this region in a global perspective and provide base-line conditions against which to explore potential future changes in Arctic climate under scenarios of global warming. In this review we identify several areas that are distinct to the present programme and highlight some recent advances presented in this special issue concerning Arctic palaeo-records and natural variability, including spatial and temporal variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Arctic Ocean sediment stratigraphy, past ice shelves and marginal marine ice sheets, and the Cenozoic history of Arctic Ocean sea ice in general and Holocene oscillations in sea ice concentrations in particular. The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean. This has important consequences for our understanding of the recent trend of declining sea ice, and calls for further research on causal links between Arctic climate and sea ice.},
   ISSN = {0277-3791},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.08.016},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2536,
   author = {Jakubowska, Magdalena and Jerzak, Mateusz and Normant, Monika and Burska, Dorota and Drzazgowski, Jerzy},
   title = {Effect of Carbon Dioxide-Induced Water Acidification on the Physiological Processes of the Baltic Isopod <i>Saduria entomon</i>},
   journal = {Journal of Shellfish Research},
   volume = {32},
   number = {3},
   pages = {825-834, 10},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2983/035.032.0326},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.2983/035.032.0326},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2746,
   author = {Jansen, J. and Thornton, B. F. and Jammet, M. M. and Wik, M. and Cortés, A. and Friborg, T. and MacIntyre, S. and Crill, P. M.},
   title = {Climate-Sensitive Controls on Large Spring Emissions of CH4 and CO2 From Northern Lakes},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
   volume = {124},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2379-2399},
   abstract = {Abstract Northern lakes are important sources of the climate forcing trace gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). A substantial portion of lakes' annual emissions can take place immediately after ice melt in spring. The drivers of these fluxes are neither well constrained nor fully understood. We present a detailed carbon gas budget for three subarctic lakes, using 6 years of eddy covariance and 9 years of manual flux measurements. We combine measurements of temperature, dissolved oxygen, and CH4 stable isotopologues to quantify functional relationships between carbon gas production and conversion, energy inputs, and the redox regime. Spring emissions were regulated by the availability of oxygen in winter, rather than temperature as during ice-free conditions. Under-ice storage increased predictably with ice-cover duration, and CH4 accumulation rates (25 ± 2 mg CH4-C·m−2·day−1) exceeded summer emissions (19 ± 1 mg CH4-C·m−2·day−1). The seasonally ice-covered lakes emitted 26–59% of the annual CH4 flux and 15–30% of the annual CO2 flux at ice-off. Reduced spring emissions were associated with winter snowmelt events, which can transport water downstream and oxygenate the water column. Stable isotopes indicate that 64–96% of accumulated CH4 escaped oxidation, implying that a considerable portion of the dissolved gases produced over winter may evade to the atmosphere.},
   ISSN = {2169-8953},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005094},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JG005094},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1561,
   author = {Janssen, F and Schrum, C and Hübner, U and Backhaus, J O},
   title = {Uncertainty analysis of a decadal simulation with a regional ocean model for the North Sea and Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {18},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {55-62},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr018055},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1560,
   author = {Janssen, Frank and Neumann, Thomas and Schmidt, Martin},
   title = {Inter-annual variability in cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic Sea controlled by wintertime hydrographic conditions},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {275},
   pages = {59-68},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps275059},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1665,
   author = {Janssen, Frank and Schrum, Corinna and Backhaus, Jan O},
   title = {A climatological data set of temperature and salinity for the Baltic Sea and the North Sea},
   journal = {Deutsche Hydrografische Zeitschrift},
   volume = {51},
   number = {9},
   pages = {5},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02933676},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2537,
   author = {Jansson, A. and Lischka, S. and Boxhammer, T. and Schulz, K. G. and Norkko, J.},
   title = {Survival and settling of larval Macoma balthica in a large-scale mesocosm experiment at different fCO2 levels},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3377-3385},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3377-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/3377/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3193,
   author = {Jarre-Teichmann, Astrid and Wieland, Kai and MacKenzie, Brian R and Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald and Plikshs, Maris and Aro, Eero},
   title = {Stock-recruitment relationships for cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.) in the central Baltic Sea incorporating environmental variability},
   journal = {Archive of Fishery and Marine Research},
   volume = {48},
   pages = {97-123},
   ISSN = {0944-1921},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3075,
   author = {Jerez, S. and Others},
   title = {Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on renewable energy resources in southwestern Europe},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
   volume = {52},
   pages = {2204-2225},
   DOI = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0257.1},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0257.1},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3073,
   author = {Jerez, S. and Thais, F. and Tobin, I. and Wild, M. and Colette, A. and Yiou, P. and Vautard, R.},
   title = {The CLIMIX model: a tool to create and evaluate spatially resolved scenarios of photovoltaics and wind power development},
   journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
   volume = {42},
   pages = {1-15},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.rser.2014.09.041},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.09.041},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3074,
   author = {Jerez, S. and Trigo, R. M.},
   title = {Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {8},
   DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044035},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044035},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1564,
   author = {Jevrejeva, S and Moore, J C and Grinsted, A},
   title = {Influence of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on ice conditions in the Baltic Sea: The wavelet approach},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {108},
   number = {D21},
   pages = {4677},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003417},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1565,
   author = {Jevrejeva, S and Moore, J C and Grinsted, A and Matthews, A P and Spada, G},
   title = {Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807},
   journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
   volume = {113},
   pages = {11-22},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1567,
   author = {Jevrejeva, S and Moore, J C and Woodworth, P L and Grinsted, A},
   title = {Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on European sea level: results based on the wavelet transform method},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {57},
   number = {2},
   pages = {183-193},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i2.14609},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2141,
   author = {Jevrejeva, S. and Drabkin, V. V. and Kostjukov, J. and Lebedev, A. A. and Leppäranta, M. and Ye, U. Mironov and Schmelzer, N. and Sztobryn, M.},
   title = {Baltic Sea ice seasons in the twentieth century},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {25},
   number = {3},
   pages = {217-227},
   note = {10.3354/cr025217},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: We examine the evolution of ice seasons in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century based on a set of 37 time series from the coastal observation stations. The statistical question of combining data from sites with different ice probabilities is solved by using fractiles of the distributions. These 100 yr long time series, including date of freezing, ice break-up, number of days with ice, and maximum annual ice thickness, provide evidence of a general trend toward easier ice conditions; the largest change is in the length of ice season, which is decreasing by 14 to 44 d per century. The trends of a reduction of about 8 to 20 d per century to earliest ice break-up are in a good agreement with a warming trend in winter air temperature over Europe. A statistically significant decreasing trend in probability of ice occurrence in the southern part of the Baltic Sea was detected; however, there is no change in probability of ice occurrence in the northern part.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr025217},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v25/n3/p217-227/},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1563,
   author = {Jevrejeva, Svetlana},
   title = {Severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {17},
   number = {1},
   pages = {55-62},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr017055},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1562,
   author = {Jevrejeva, Svetlana},
   title = {Association between ice conditions in the Baltic Sea along the Estonian coast and the North Atlantic Oscillation},
   journal = {Hydrology Research},
   volume = {33},
   number = {4},
   pages = {319-330},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2002.0011},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1568,
   author = {Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Moore, John C},
   title = {Singular spectrum analysis of Baltic Sea ice conditions and large-scale atmospheric patterns since 1708},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {28},
   number = {23},
   pages = {4503-4506},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013573},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1762,
   author = {Jevrejeva, Svetlana and Moore, John C and Grinsted, Aslak},
   title = {Sea level projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios},
   journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
   volume = {80-81},
   pages = {14-20},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.006},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2249,
   author = {Jeworrek, J. and Wu, L. and Dieterich, C. and Rutgersson, A.},
   title = {Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {163-175},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-163-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/163/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3382,
   author = {Jilbert, Tom and Slomp, Caroline P.},
   title = {Rapid high-amplitude variability in Baltic Sea hypoxia during the Holocene},
   journal = {Geology},
   volume = {41},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1183-1186},
   abstract = {Hypoxia (oxygen concentrations of <2 ml/L) and so-called “dead zones” are a growing concern in coastal marine environments. The Baltic Sea is a shelf sea that is highly sensitive to hypoxia, and may serve as a laboratory for studying the interplay between natural and anthropogenic forcing of redox conditions in the global coastal zone. Past occurrences of hypoxia in the Baltic Sea have been shown by previous studies, but high-resolution, quantitative reconstructions of past hypoxia intensity are lacking. Here we present bulk sediment geochemical records from the deep basins of the Baltic Sea that show multicentennial oscillations during intervals of past hypoxia, suggesting rapid alternations between hypoxic and relatively oxic conditions. While the onset of past hypoxic events was likely forced by climatic variability, these events intensified and terminated rapidly due to feedbacks in the phosphorus (P) cycle. The modern intensity of hypoxia is similar to several past events, suggesting that hypoxia in the Baltic Sea has a maximum potential intensity. However, using ultrahigh-resolution laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry scanning of sediment blocks, we show that modern hypoxia intensified more rapidly than any past event. This confirms the role of anthropogenic nutrient loading in driving this system into its current hypoxic state.},
   ISSN = {0091-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1130/g34804.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1130/G34804.1},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2460,
   author = {Jin, Hongxiao and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Olsson, Cecilia and Lindström, Johan and Jönsson, Per and Eklundh, Lars},
   title = {New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes},
   journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
   volume = {63},
   number = {6},
   pages = {763-775},
   abstract = {Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year−1. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C−1 to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm−1 to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C−1 by winter warming and 0.56 day °C−1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.},
   ISSN = {1432-1254},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2538,
   author = {Johannesson, Kerstin and Smolarz, Katarzyna and Grahn, Mats and André, Carl},
   title = {The Future of Baltic Sea Populations: Local Extinction or Evolutionary Rescue?},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {40},
   number = {2},
   pages = {179-190},
   abstract = {Environmental change challenges local and global survival of populations and species. In a species-poor environment like the Baltic Sea this is particularly critical as major ecosystem functions may be upheld by single species. A complex interplay between demographic and genetic characteristics of species and populations determines risks of local extinction, chances of re-establishment of lost populations, and tolerance to environmental changes by evolution of new adaptations. Recent studies show that Baltic populations of dominant marine species are locally adapted, have lost genetic variation and are relatively isolated. In addition, some have evolved unusually high degrees of clonality and others are representatives of endemic (unique) evolutionary lineages. We here suggest that a consequence of local adaptation, isolation and genetic endemism is an increased risk of failure in restoring extinct Baltic populations. Additionally, restricted availability of genetic variation owing to lost variation and isolation may negatively impact the potential for evolutionary rescue following environmental change.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0129-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0129-x},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2941,
   author = {Johansson, L. and Ytreberg, E. and Jalkanen, J. P. and Fridell, E. and Eriksson, K. M. and Lagerström, M. and Maljutenko, I. and Raudsepp, U. and Fischer, V. and Roth, E.},
   title = {Model for leisure boat activities and emissions – implementation for the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ocean Science},
   volume = {16},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1143-1163},
   note = {OS},
   ISSN = {1812-0792},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1143-2020},
   url = {https://os.copernicus.org/articles/16/1143/2020/},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1569,
   author = {Johansson, Milla and Boman, Hanna and Kahma, Kimmo K and Launiainen, Jouko},
   title = {Trends in sea level variability in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {6},
   pages = {159-180},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1570,
   author = {Johansson, Milla M and Kahma, Kimmo K},
   title = {On the statistical relationship between the geostrophic wind and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {21},
   pages = {25-43},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1571,
   author = {Johansson, Milla M and Pellikka, Hilkka and Kahma, Kimmo K and Ruosteenoja, Kimmo},
   title = {Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {129},
   pages = {35-46},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.08.007},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1933,
   author = {Johns, T. C. and Carnell, R. E. and Crossley, J. F. and Gregory, J. M. and Mitchell, J. F. B. and Senior, C. A. and Tett, S. F. B. and Wood, R. A.},
   title = {The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {2},
   pages = {103-134},
   abstract = { This study describes a new coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) developed for studies of climate change and results from a hindcast experiment. The model includes various physical and technical improvements relative to an earlier version of the Hadley Centre OAGCM. A coupled spinup process is used to bring the model to equilibrium. Compared to uncoupled spinup methods this is computationally more expensive, but helps to counter climate drift arising from inadequate sampling of short time scale coupled variability when the components are equilibrated separately. Including sea ice advection and enhancing reference surface salinities in high southern latitudes in austral winter to promote bottom water formation during spinup appears to have stabilized the high-latitude drift exhibited in the earlier model’s control run. In the present study, the atmospheric control climate is stable on multi-century time scales with a drift in global average surface air temperature of only +0.016 K/century, despite a small residual drift in the deep ocean. The control climate is an improvement over the earlier model in several respects, notably in its variability on short time scales. Two anomaly runs are presented incorporating estimated forcing changes over the period 1860 to 1990 arising from greenhouse gases alone and from greenhouse gases plus the radiative scattering effect of sulphate aerosols. These allow validation of the model against the instrumental climate record. Inclusion of aerosol forcing gives a significantly better simulation of historical temperature patterns, although comparisons against recent sea ice trends are equivocal. These studies emphasize the potential importance of including additional forcing terms apart from greenhouse gases in climate simulations, and refining estimates of their spatial distribution and magnitude.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050155},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050155},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2142,
   author = {Johnston, Alison and Ausden, Malcolm and Dodd, Andrew M. and Bradbury, Richard B. and Chamberlain, Dan E. and Jiguet, Frédéric and Thomas, Chris D. and Cook, Aonghais S. C. P. and Newson, Stuart E. and Ockendon, Nancy and Rehfisch, Mark M. and Roos, Staffan and Thaxter, Chris B. and Brown, Andy and Crick, Humphrey Q. P. and Douse, Andrew and McCall, Rob A. and Pontier, Helen and Stroud, David A. and Cadiou, Bernard and Crowe, Olivia and Deceuninck, Bernard and Hornman, Menno and Pearce-Higgins, James W.},
   title = {Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {3},
   number = {12},
   pages = {1055-1061},
   abstract = {The dynamic nature and diversity of species’ responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate–abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0 °C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species’ distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2035},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2035},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1763,
   author = {Jones, CDea and Hughes, J K and Bellouin, Nicolas and Hardiman, S C and Jones, G S and Knight, Jeff and Liddicoat, Spencer and O'Connor, F M and Andres, Robert Joseph and Bell, Chris and others},
   title = {The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {4},
   pages = {543},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2539,
   author = {Jones, Miranda C. and Cheung, William W. L.},
   title = {Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {72},
   number = {3},
   pages = {741-752},
   abstract = {Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade−1 for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10°N and 10°S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5° latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5° latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5° latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.},
   ISSN = {1054-3139},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu172},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu172},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2033,
   author = {Jones, P. D. and Jonsson, T. and Wheeler, D.},
   title = {Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {17},
   number = {13},
   pages = {1433-1450},
   abstract = {Abstract Early instrumental pressure measurements from Gibraltar and the Reykjavik area of Iceland have been used to extend to 1821 the homogeneous pressure series at the two locations. In winter the two sites are located close to the centres of action that comprise the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The extended ‘winter half-year’ record of the NAO enables recent changes in the record to be placed in the context of the period 1823–1996. The period since the early 1970s is the most prolonged positive phase of the oscillation and the late 1980s and early 1990s is the period with the highest values (strongest westerlies). The winter of 1995–1996 marked a dramatic switch in the index, with the change from 1994–1995 being the greatest change recorded from one year to the next since the series began in 1823. (The extended Gibraltar and Reykjavik monthly pressures and the NAO series can be found on the Climatic Research Unit home page, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/.). © 1997 Royal Meteorological Society. Int.J.Climatol., Vol. 17, 1433-1450 (No. of Figures: 6 No. of Tables: 9 No. of References: 27)},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19971115)17:13<1433::AID-JOC203>3.0.CO;2-P},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/%28SICI%291097-0088%2819971115%2917%3A13%3C1433%3A%3AAID-JOC203%3E3.0.CO%3B2-P},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2143,
   author = {Jones, P. D. and Lister, D. H. and Osborn, T. J. and Harpham, C. and Salmon, M. and Morice, C. P.},
   title = {Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {117},
   number = {D05127},
   abstract = {This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that has been used to produce a grid-box data set of 5° latitude × 5° longitude temperature anomalies. The new database (CRUTEM4) comprises 5583 station records of which 4842 have enough data for the 1961–1990 period to calculate or estimate the average temperatures for this period. Many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by a number of studies, particularly from National Meteorological Services (NMSs). Hemispheric temperature averages for land areas developed with the new CRUTEM4 data set differ slightly from their CRUTEM3 equivalent. The inclusion of much additional data from the Arctic (particularly the Russian Arctic) has led to estimates for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) being warmer by about 0.1°C for the years since 2001. The NH/Southern Hemisphere (SH) warms by 1.12°C/0.84°C over the period 1901–2010. The robustness of the hemispheric averages is assessed by producing five different analyses, each including a different subset of 20% of the station time series and by omitting some large countries. CRUTEM4 is also compared with hemispheric averages produced by reanalyses undertaken by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 (1958–2001) and ERA-Interim (1979–2010) data sets. For the NH, agreement is good back to 1958 and excellent from 1979 at monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. For the SH, agreement is poorer, but if the area is restricted to the SH north of 60°S, the agreement is dramatically improved from the mid-1970s.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd017139},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011JD017139},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2144,
   author = {Jonson, J.E. and Jalkanen, J.P. and Johansson, L. and Gauss, M. and van der Gon, H.A.C. Denier},
   title = {Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {15},
   number = {2},
   pages = {783-783},
   ISSN = {1680-7316},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2145,
   author = {Jonson, Jan Eiof and Gauss, Michael and Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka and Johansson, Lasse},
   title = {Effects of strengthening the Baltic Sea ECA regulations},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {19},
   number = {21},
   ISSN = {1680-7316},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2540,
   author = {Jonsson, Per R. and Kotta, Jonne and Andersson, Helén C. and Herkül, Kristjan and Virtanen, Elina and Sandman, Antonia Nyström and Johannesson, Kerstin},
   title = {High climate velocity and population fragmentation may constrain climate-driven range shift of the key habitat former Fucus vesiculosus},
   journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
   volume = {24},
   number = {7},
   pages = {892-905},
   abstract = {Abstract Aim The Baltic Sea forms a unique regional sea with its salinity gradient ranging from marine to nearly freshwater conditions. It is one of the most environmentally impacted brackish seas worldwide, and the low biodiversity makes it particularly sensitive to anthropogenic pressures including climate change. We applied a novel combination of models to predict the fate of one of the dominant foundation species in the Baltic Sea, the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus. Location The Baltic Sea. Methods We used a species distribution model to predict climate change-induced displacement of F. vesiculosus and combined these projections with a biophysical model of dispersal and connectivity to explore whether the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may match estimated climate velocities to recolonize the receding salinity gradient. In addition, we used a population dynamic model to assess possible effects of habitat fragmentation. Results The species distribution model showed that the habitat of F. vesiculosus is expected to dramatically shrink, mainly caused by the predicted reduction of salinity. In addition, the dispersal rate of locally adapted genotypes may not keep pace with estimated climate velocities rendering the recolonization of the receding salinity gradient more difficult. A simplistic model of population dynamics also indicated that the risk of local extinction may increase due to future habitat fragmentation. Main conclusions Results point to a significant risk of locally adapted genotypes being unable to shift their ranges sufficiently fast considering the restricted dispersal and long generation time. The worst scenario is that F. vesiculosus may disappear from large parts of the Baltic Sea before the end of this century with large effects on the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We finally discuss how to reduce this risk through conservation actions, including assisted colonization and assisted evolution.},
   ISSN = {1366-9516},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12733},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ddi.12733},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3273,
   author = {Jonsson, Per R. and Moksnes, Per-Olav and Corell, Hanna and Bonsdorff, Erik and Nilsson Jacobi, Martin},
   title = {Ecological coherence of Marine Protected Areas: New tools applied to the Baltic Sea network},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {30},
   number = {4},
   pages = {743-760},
   abstract = {Abstract Spatial connectivity is an essential process to consider in the design and assessment of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help maintain and restore marine populations and communities MPAs should form ecologically coherent networks. How to estimate and implement connectivity in MPA design remains a challenge. Here a new theoretical framework is presented based on biophysical modelling of organism dispersal, combined with a suite of tools to assess different aspects of connectivity that can be integrated in MPA design. As a demonstration, these tools are applied to an MPA network in the Baltic Sea (HELCOM MPA). The tools are based on the connectivity matrix, which summarizes dispersal probabilities, averaged over many years, between all considered areas in the geographic target area. The biophysical model used to estimate connectivity included important biological traits that affect dispersal patterns where different trait combinations and habitat preferences will produce specific connectivity matrices representing different species. Modelled connectivity matrices were used to assess local retention within individual MPAs, which offers indications about the adequacy of size when MPAs are considered in isolation. The connectivity matrix also provides information about source areas to individual MPAs, e.g. sources of larvae or pressures such as contaminants. How well several MPAs act as a network was assessed within a framework of eigenvalue perturbation theory (EPT). With EPT, the optimal MPA network with respect to connectivity can be identified. In addition, EPT can suggest optimal extensions of existing MPA networks to enhance connectivity. Finally, dispersal barriers can be identified based on the connectivity matrix, which may suggest boundaries for management units. The assessment of connectivity for the HELCOM MPA are discussed in terms of possible improvements, but the tools presented here could be applied to any region.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3286},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.3286},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3266,
   author = {Josefsson, Sarah and Leonardsson, Kjell and Gunnarsson, Jonas S. and Wiberg, Karin},
   title = {Bioturbation-Driven Release of Buried PCBs and PBDEs from Different Depths in Contaminated Sediments},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {44},
   number = {19},
   pages = {7456-7464},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es100615g},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/es100615g},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN2859,
   author = {Josefsson, Weine},
   title = {Long-term global radiation in Stockholm, 1922-2018},
   institution = {SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)},
   url = {https://www.smhi.se/publikationer/publikationer/long-term-global-radiation-in-stockholm-1922-2018-1.145705},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3399,
   author = {Joshi, Manoj M. and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Webb, Mark J. and Sexton, David M. H. and Johns, Tim C.},
   title = {Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {30},
   number = {5},
   pages = {455-465},
   abstract = {The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose amplitude is more than those of the surrounding oceans. Using idealised GCM experiments with perturbed SSTs, we show that the land/sea contrast in equilibrium simulations is associated with local feedbacks and the hydrological cycle over land, rather than with externally imposed radiative forcing. This mechanism also explains a large component of the land/sea contrast in transient simulations as well. We propose a conceptual model with three elements: (1) there is a spatially variable level in the lower troposphere at which temperature change is the same over land and sea; (2) the dependence of lapse rate on moisture and temperature causes different changes in lapse rate upon warming over land and sea, and hence a surface land/sea temperature contrast; (3) moisture convergence over land predominantly takes place at levels significantly colder than the surface; wherever moisture supply over land is limited, the increase of evaporation over land upon warming is limited, reducing the relative humidity in the boundary layer over land, and hence also enhancing the land/sea contrast. The non-linearity of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship of saturation specific humidity to temperature is critical in (2) and (3). We examine the sensitivity of the land/sea contrast to model representations of different physical processes using a large ensemble of climate model integrations with perturbed parameters, and find that it is most sensitive to representation of large-scale cloud and stomatal closure. We discuss our results in the context of high-resolution and Earth-system modelling of climate change.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0306-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0306-1},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1764,
   author = {Jungclaus, J H and Keenlyside, Noel and Botzet, M and Haak, H and Luo, J-J and Latif, Mojib and Marotzke, J and Mikolajewicz, U and Roeckner, E},
   title = {Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {19},
   number = {16},
   pages = {3952-3972},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3827.1},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1999,
   author = {Justić, Dubravko and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Turner, R. Eugene},
   title = {Simulated responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {42},
   number = {3},
   pages = {115-126},
   abstract = {A mathematical model was used to simulate monthly responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading over a 45-year period. We examined six hypothetical future scenarios that are based on observed and projected changes in the Mississippi River discharge, Mississippi River nitrate concentrations, and ambient water temperatures. In particular, we investigated the implications of a 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrogen flux, which was recently proposed by the Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force as a measure to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone. Model simulations suggest that the frequency of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico is highly sensitive to variations in riverine nitrate flux, but also to variations in freshwater discharge and ambient water temperatures. A 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrate flux, for example, would reduce the frequency of hypoxia by 37%. Nevertheless, a 20% increase the Mississippi River discharge, which may occur under some climate change scenarios, would produce an increase in the frequency of hypoxia of the same magnitude. Thus, if the potential climatic variations are taken into account, a 30% decrease in the nitrogen flux of the Mississippi River may not be sufficient to accomplish the proposed hypoxia management goal.},
   keywords = {Mathematical modeling
Climate variability
Nutrient flux
Hypoxia
Mississippi river
Gulf of Mexico},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(03)00070-8},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796303000708},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1765,
   author = {Jutterström, S and Andersson, H C and Omstedt, A and Malmaeus, J M},
   title = {Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea - Kattegat marine ecosystem: Implications for policy and management actions},
   journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin},
   volume = {86},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {468-480},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.06.027},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2842,
   author = {Jylhä, Kirsti and Laapas, Mikko and Ruosteenoja, Kimmo and Arvola, Lauri and Drebs, Achim and Kersalo, Juha and Saku, Seppo and Gregow, Hilppa and Hannula, Henna-Reetta and Pirinen, Pentti %J Boreal Environment Research},
   title = {Climate variability and trends in the Valkea-Kotinen region, southern Finland: comparisons between the past, current and projected climates},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {19},
   pages = {4-30},
   ISSN = {1239-6095},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2541,
   author = {Jänes, Holger and Herkül, Kristjan and Kotta, Jonne},
   title = {Environmental niche separation between native and non-native benthic invertebrate species: Case study of the northern Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Marine Environmental Research},
   volume = {131},
   pages = {123-133},
   abstract = {Knowledge and understanding of geographic distributions of species is crucial for many aspects in ecology, conservation, policy making and management. In order to reach such an understanding, it is important to know abiotic variables that impact and drive distributions of native and non-native species. We used an existing long-term macrobenthos database for species presence-absence information and biomass estimates at different environmental gradients in the northern Baltic Sea. Region specific abiotic variables (e.g. salinity, depth) were derived from previously constructed bathymetric and hydrodynamic models. Multidimensional ordination techniques were then applied to investigate potential niche space separation between all native and non-native invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea. Such an approach allowed to obtain data rich and robust estimates of the current native and non-native species distributions and outline important abiotic parameters influencing the observed pattern. The results showed clear niche space separation between native and non-native species. Non-native species were situated in an environmental space characterized by reduced salinity, high temperatures, high proportion of soft seabed and decreased depth and wave exposure whereas native species displayed an opposite pattern. Different placement of native and non-native species along the studied environmental niche space is likely to be explained by the differences in their evolutionary history, human mediated activities and geological youth of the Baltic Sea. The results of this study can provide early warnings and effectively outline coastal areas in the northern Baltic Sea that are prone to further range expansion of non-native species as climate change is expected to significantly reduce salinity and increase temperature in wide coastal areas, both supporting the disappearance of native and appearance of non-native species.},
   keywords = {Marine ecology
Benthic ecology
Benthos
Biological invasions
Invasive species
Introduced species
Niche
Species distribution
Spatial dynamics
Environmental gradients},
   ISSN = {0141-1136},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2017.08.001},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113617302222},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2146,
   author = {Jüssi, Mart},
   title = {Living on an edge: land-locked seals in changing climate},
   university = {Department of Zoology, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Tartu, Estonia},
   type = {Dissertation},
   DOI = {http://hdl.handle.net/10062/28038},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN2147,
   author = {Jüssi, Mart and Härkönen, Tero and Helle, Eero and Jüssi, Ivar},
   title = {Decreasing Ice Coverage Will Reduce the Breeding Success of Baltic Grey Seal (<span class="genus-species">Halichoerus grypus</span>) Females},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {37},
   number = {2},
   pages = {80-85, 6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[80:DICWRT]2.0.CO},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1901,
   author = {Kabel, Karoline and Moros, Matthias and Porsche, Christian and Neumann, Thomas and Adolphi, Florian and Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest and Siegel, Herbert and Gerth, Monika and Leipe, Thomas and Jansen, Eystein and Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.},
   title = {Impact of climate change on the Baltic Sea ecosystem over the past 1,000 years},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {2},
   pages = {871},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1595},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1595},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2148,
   author = {Kadin, Martina and Frederiksen, Morten and Niiranen, Susa and Converse, Sarah J.},
   title = {Linking demographic and food-web models to understand management trade-offs},
   journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
   volume = {9},
   number = {15},
   pages = {8587-8600},
   abstract = {Abstract Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multistate models to a capture–recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016–2040) and distant (2060–2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years, and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on nonfocal species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management.},
   ISSN = {2045-7758},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5385},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.5385},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1572,
   author = {Kahma, Kimmo K and Boman, Hanna and Johansson, Milla M and Launiainen, Jouko},
   title = {The North Atlantic Oscillation and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {ICES Marine Science Symposia},
   volume = {219},
   pages = {365-366},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1978,
   author = {Kahru, M. and Elmgren, R.},
   title = {Multidecadal time series of satellite-detected accumulations of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {11},
   number = {13},
   pages = {3619-3633},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3619-2014},
   url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/11/3619/2014/},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2428,
   author = {Kahru, M. and Elmgren, R. and Savchuk, O. P.},
   title = {Changing seasonality of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1009-1018},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1009-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/1009/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3149,
   author = {Kahru, Mati and Elmgren, Ragnar and Di Lorenzo, Emanuele and Savchuk, Oleg},
   title = {Unexplained interannual oscillations of cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {6365},
   abstract = {Population oscillations in multi-species or even single species systems are well-known but have rarely been detected at the lower trophic levels in marine systems. Nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria are a major component of the Baltic Sea ecosystem and sometimes form huge surface accumulations covering most of the sea surface. By analysing a satellite-derived 39-year (1979–2017) data archive of surface cyanobacteria concentrations we have found evidence of strikingly regular interannual oscillations in cyanobacteria concentrations in the northern Baltic Sea. These oscillations have a period of ~3 years with a high-concentration year generally followed by one or two low-concentration years. Changes in abiotic factors known to influence the growth and survival of cyanobacteria could not provide an explanation for the oscillations. We therefore assume that these oscillations are intrinsic to the marine system, caused by an unknown, probably mainly biological mechanism that may be triggered by a combination of environmental factors. Interactions between different life cycle stages of cyanobacteria as well as between predator-prey or host-parasite are possible candidates for causing the oscillations.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24829-7},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24829-7},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2014,
   author = {Kahru, Mati and Elmgren, Ragnar and Kaiser, Jérôme and Wasmund, Norbert and Savchuk, Oleg},
   title = {Cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea: Correlations with environmental factors},
   journal = {Harmful Algae},
   volume = {92},
   pages = {101739},
   abstract = {Massive cyanobacteria blooms occur almost every summer in the Baltic Sea but the capability to quantitatively predict their extent and intensity is poorly developed. Here we analyse statistical relationships between multi-decadal satellite-derived time series of the frequency of cyanobacteria surface accumulations (FCA) in the central Baltic Sea Proper and a suite of environmental variables. Over the decadal scale (∼5-20 years) FCA was highly correlated (R2 ∼ 0.69) with a set of biogeochemical variables related to the amount of phosphorus and hypoxia in bottom layers. Water temperature in the surface layer was also positively correlated with FCA at the decadal scale. In contrast, the inter-annual variations in FCA had no correlation with the biogeochemical variables. Instead, significant correlations were found with the solar shortwave direct flux in July and the sea-surface temperature, also in July. It thus appears that it is not possible to predict inter-annual fluctuations in cyanobacteria blooms from water chemistry. Moreover, environmental variables could only explain about 45% of the inter-annual variability in FCA, probably because year-to-year variations in FCA are significantly influenced by biological interactions.},
   keywords = {Cyanobacteria
Surface accumulations
Baltic Sea
Satellite
Excess phosphorus
Solar flux
Sea-surface temperature},
   ISSN = {1568-9883},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2019.101739},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568988319302148},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1573,
   author = {Kallio-Nyberg, I and Jutila, E and Saloniemi, I and Jokikokko, E},
   title = {Association between environmental factors, smolt size and the survival of wild and reared Atlantic salmon from the Simojoki River in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Fish Biology},
   volume = {65},
   number = {1},
   pages = {122-134},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.2004.00435.x},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3208,
   author = {Kallio-Nyberg, Irma and Jutila, Eero and Jokikokko, Erkki and Saloniemi, Irma},
   title = {Survival of reared Atlantic salmon and sea trout in relation to marine conditions of smolt year in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Fisheries Research},
   volume = {80},
   number = {2},
   pages = {295-304},
   abstract = {The marine survival of hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) was examined in relation to marine conditions during post-smolt migration and in relation to stock traits. In 1970–2001, Carlin-tagged smolts were released in the Iijoki and Oulujoki rivers, the northern Baltic Sea. When both species were analysed together, the abundance of the three prey fish, herring (Clupea harengus), smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) and vendace (Coregonus albula) correlated positively with the survival of salmonids. In addition, the increase in smolt size appeared to improve the survival rate. Sea surface temperature (SST) may have affected indirectly through the abundance of prey fish during the post-smolt migration of salmon and sea trout. The smelt and vendace showed a statistical effect on survival only when the temperature effects were not included in the models. In sea trout, an increasing smolt length was not significantly correlated with the survival in good herring recruitment years, but in poor years survival increased very rapidly with increasing smolt size. The recapture rates of the salmonids tended to decrease between the years 1970 and 2001. During the same time period, the June SST slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the annual summer SST and recapture rate of salmon may partly explain the decreasing trend in recapture rates. An increase in smolt size did not compensate for the decline in the recapture rate of either species.},
   keywords = {Atlantic salmon
Sea trout
Prey fish abundance
Sea surface temperature
Survival},
   ISSN = {0165-7836},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2006.03.026},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783606001366},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3202,
   author = {Kallio-Nyberg, Irma and Veneranta, Lari and Saloniemi, Irma and Jokikokko, Erkki and Leskelä, Ari},
   title = {Different growth trends of whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) forms in the northern Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Applied Ichthyology},
   volume = {35},
   number = {3},
   pages = {683-691},
   abstract = {Abstract The sea growth of two whitefish forms, anadromous (Coregonus lavaretus lavaretus) and sea-spawning (Coregonus lavaretus widegreni), was analysed using samples collected from the commercial sea catch in the Gulf of Bothnia (GoB) in the northern Baltic Sea during 1998–2014. In the GoB area, these two forms are possible to identify because the gill-raker number and size at maturity vary between forms. The growth rate of the forms is linked to their feeding area. Sea-spawning whitefish, which has a feeding migration near its home site, was shorter in the northern GoB (66°N–64°N) at the ages of 3–11 than those in the southern GoB (64°N–60°30′N). In the data, most whitefish were caught with gill nets in the GoB. The mesh sizes of gill nets capturing the anadromous form were mostly 35–45 mm, while those capturing the sea-spawning form were <35 mm in the northern GoB. It is likely that the different growth trends for small and large whitefish were connected with differences in their recruitment for fishing. The length of anadromous females at the age of four sea years increased significantly, but the length of six-year-old anadromous female whitefish decreased over the catch years from 1998–2014. In contrast, the length of slow-growing sea-spawning whitefish of six years or older increased significantly in relation to the catch year in the gill-net catch. The increase in the growth of young age groups in both forms was probably associated with the increasing temperature and the low fishing pressure on small fish. The decreasing age at capture for both forms and the depression of the mean size of old anadromous whitefish are signs of high fishing pressure with a high gill-net effort that selectively removes the largest and oldest individuals of both forms.},
   ISSN = {0175-8659},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/jai.13898},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jai.13898},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1902,
   author = {Kalnay, E. and Kanamitsu, M. and Kistler, R. and Collins, W. and Deaven, D. and Gandin, L. and Iredell, M. and Saha, S. and White, G. and Woollen, J. and Zhu, Y. and Chelliah, M. and Ebisuzaki, W. and Higgins, W. and Janowiak, J. and Mo, K. C. and Ropelewski, C. and Wang, J. and Leetmaa, A. and Reynolds, R. and Jenne, Roy and Joseph, Dennis},
   title = {The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {77},
   number = {3},
   pages = {437-472},
   abstract = {The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted “reanalysis”) to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957–96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system. The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a “quick look” CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CDROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, “C” variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined by the model during the data assimilation and should be used with caution. Nevertheless, a comparison of these variables with observations and with several climatologies shows that they generally contain considerable useful information. Eight-day forecasts, produced every 5 days, should be useful for predictability studies and for monitoring the quality of the observing systems. The 40 years of reanalysis (1957–96) should be completed in early 1997. A continuation into the future through an identical Climate Data Assimilation System will allow researchers to reliably compare recent anomalies with those in earlier decades. Since changes in the observing systems will inevitably produce perceived changes in the climate, parallel reanalyses (at least 1 year long) will be generated for the periods immediately after the introduction of new observing systems, such as new types of satellite data. NCEP plans currently call for an updated reanalysis using a state-of-the-art system every five years or so. The successive reanalyses will be greatly facilitated by the generation of the comprehensive database in the present reanalysis.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:Tnyrp>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477%281996%29077%3C0437%3ATNYRP%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2886,
   author = {Kanakidou, Maria and Myriokefalitakis, Stelios and Tsigaridis, Kostas},
   title = {Aerosols in atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles of nutrients},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {13},
   number = {6},
   pages = {063004},
   abstract = {Atmospheric aerosols have complex and variable compositions and properties. While scientific interest is centered on the health and climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols, insufficient attention is given to their involvement in multiphase chemistry that alters their contribution as carriers of nutrients in ecosystems. However, there is experimental proof that the nutrient equilibria of both land and marine ecosystems have been disturbed during the Anthropocene period. This review study first summarizes our current understanding of aerosol chemical processing in the atmosphere as relevant to biogeochemical cycles. Then it binds together results of recent modeling studies based on laboratory and field experiments, focusing on the organic and dust components of aerosols that account for multiphase chemistry, aerosol ageing in the atmosphere, nutrient (N, P, Fe) emissions, atmospheric transport, transformation and deposition. The human-driven contribution to atmospheric deposition of these nutrients, derived by global simulations using past and future anthropogenic emissions of pollutants, is put into perspective with regard to potential changes in nutrient limitations and biodiversity. Atmospheric deposition of nutrients has been suggested to result in human-induced ecosystem limitations with regard to specific nutrients. Such modifications favor the development of certain species against others and affect the overall functioning of ecosystems. Organic forms of nutrients are found to contribute to the atmospheric deposition of the nutrients N, P and Fe by 20%–40%, 35%–45% and 7%–18%, respectively. These have the potential to be key components of the biogeochemical cycles since there is initial proof of their bioavailability to ecosystems. Bioaerosols have been found to make a significant contribution to atmospheric sources of N and P, indicating potentially significant interactions between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. These results deserve further experimental and modeling studies to reduce uncertainties and understand the feedbacks induced by atmospheric deposition of nutrients to ecosystems.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdb},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdb},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3341,
   author = {Kankainen, M. and Vielma, J. and Koskela, J. and Niukko, J.  and Niskanen, L.},
   title = {Olosuhteiden vaikutus kirjolohen kasvatuksen tehokkuuteen Suomen merialueilla},
   type = {Luonnonvara-  ja biotalouden tutkimus 28/2020},
   url = {https://jukuri.luke.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/545811/luke_luobio_28_2020.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN1903,
   author = {Kanoshina, Inga and Lips, Urmas and Leppänen, Juha-Markku},
   title = {The influence of weather conditions (temperature and wind) on cyanobacterial bloom development in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)},
   journal = {Harmful Algae},
   volume = {2},
   number = {1},
   pages = {29-41},
   keywords = {Cyanobacteria
Baltic Sea
Temperature
Upwelling
Wind},
   ISSN = {1568-9883},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S1568-9883(02)00085-9},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568988302000859},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3394,
   author = {Kanwischer, Marion and Asker, Noomi and Wernersson, Ann-Sofie and Wirth, Marisa A. and Fisch, Kathrin and Dahlgren, Elin and Osterholz, Helena and Habedank, Friederike and Naumann, Michael and Mannio, Jaakko and Schulz-Bull, Detlef E.},
   title = {Substances of emerging concern in Baltic Sea water: Review on methodological advances for the environmental assessment and proposal for future monitoring},
   journal = {Ambio},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea is among the most polluted seas worldwide. Anthropogenic contaminants are mainly introduced via riverine discharge and atmospheric deposition. Regional and international measures have successfully been employed to reduce concentrations of several legacy contaminants. However, current Baltic Sea monitoring programs do not address compounds of emerging concern. Hence, potentially harmful pharmaceuticals, UV filters, polar pesticides, estrogenic compounds, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or naturally produced algal toxins are not taken into account during the assessment of the state of the Baltic Sea. Herein, we conducted literature searches based on systematic approaches and compiled reported data on these substances in Baltic Sea surface water and on methodological advances for sample processing and chemical as well as effect-based analysis of these analytically challenging marine pollutants. Finally, we provide recommendations for improvement of future contaminant and risk assessment in the Baltic Sea, which revolve around a combination of both chemical and effect-based analyses.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {10.1007/s13280-021-01627-6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-021-01627-6},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1904,
   author = {Karabil, S. and Zorita, E. and Hünicke, B.},
   title = {Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1031-1046},
   note = {ESD
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/1031/2017/esd-8-1031-2017.pdf},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1031-2017},
   url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/1031/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2260,
   author = {Karabil, S. and Zorita, E. and Hünicke, B.},
   title = {Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1},
   pages = {69-90},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/9/69/2018/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1905,
   author = {Karabil, Sitar},
   title = {Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century},
   journal = {Climate},
   volume = {5},
   number = {3},
   pages = {71},
   ISSN = {2225-1154},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030071},
   url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/5/3/71},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2149,
   author = {Karabil, Sitar},
   title = {Mechanisms of sea level variability in the Baltic Sea region for the period 1850-2100},
   university = {Universität Hamburg},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN2732,
   author = {Karl, M. and Jonson, J. E. and Uppstu, A. and Aulinger, A. and Prank, M. and Sofiev, M. and Jalkanen, J. P. and Johansson, L. and Quante, M. and Matthias, V.},
   title = {Effects of ship emissions on air quality in the Baltic Sea region simulated with three different chemistry transport models},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {19},
   number = {10},
   pages = {7019-7053},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7019-2019},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/7019/2019/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2150,
   author = {Karl, Matthias and Bieser, Johannes and Geyer, Beate and Matthias, Volker and Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka and Johansson, Lasse and Fridell, Erik},
   title = {Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) on the future air quality and nitrogen deposition to seawater in the Baltic Sea region},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {19},
   number = {3},
   pages = {1721-1752},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1107},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3308,
   author = {Karlson, Agnes M. L. and Duberg, Jon and Motwani, Nisha H. and Hogfors, Hedvig and Klawonn, Isabell and Ploug, Helle and Barthel Svedén, Jennie and Garbaras, Andrius and Sundelin, Brita and Hajdu, Susanna and Larsson, Ulf and Elmgren, Ragnar and Gorokhova, Elena},
   title = {Nitrogen fixation by cyanobacteria stimulates production in Baltic food webs},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {413-426},
   abstract = {Filamentous, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria form extensive summer blooms in the Baltic Sea. Their ability to fix dissolved N2 allows cyanobacteria to circumvent the general summer nitrogen limitation, while also generating a supply of novel bioavailable nitrogen for the food web. However, the fate of the nitrogen fixed by cyanobacteria remains unresolved, as does its importance for secondary production in the Baltic Sea. Here, we synthesize recent experimental and field studies providing strong empirical evidence that cyanobacterial nitrogen is efficiently assimilated and transferred in Baltic food webs via two major pathways: directly by grazing on fresh or decaying cyanobacteria and indirectly through the uptake by other phytoplankton and microbes of bioavailable nitrogen exuded from cyanobacterial cells. This information is an essential step toward guiding nutrient management to minimize noxious blooms without overly reducing secondary production, and ultimately most probably fish production in the Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0660-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0660-x},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2679,
   author = {Karlsson, Karl-Göran and Devasthale, Abhay},
   title = {Inter-comparison and evaluation of the four longest satellite-derived cloud climate data records: CLARA-A2, ESA Cloud CCI V3, ISCCP-HGM, and PATMOS-x},
   journal = {Remote Sensing},
   volume = {10},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1567},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10101567},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2152,
   author = {Karlsson, Olle and Hiby, Lex and Lundberg, Torkel and Jüssi, Mart and Jüssi, Ivar and Helander, Björn},
   title = {Photo-identification, Site Fidelity, and Movement of Female Gray Seals (<i>Halichoerus grypus</i>) Between Haul-outs in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {34},
   number = {8},
   pages = {628-634, 7},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-34.8.628},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3195,
   author = {Karås, P. and Thoresson, G.},
   title = {An application of a bioenergetics model to Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis L.)},
   journal = {Journal of Fish Biology},
   volume = {41},
   number = {2},
   pages = {217-230},
   abstract = {A bioenergetics model was developed for Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) by revising an existing model for yellow perch and walleye. Data were gathered from field studies and the literature. Besides adjusting the original parameters of the model, effects of season on consumption and metabolic rates were added. The predictive capability of the revised model was high both concerning the levels of growth and its seasonal development in the Baltic coastal waters to which the model was applied. Perch young-of-the-year attained almost maximum consumption and growth except in the highest temperatures experienced. In larger fish, the model estimated consumption to be about 50 per cent of the maximum possible rate.},
   ISSN = {0022-1112},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8649.1992.tb02652.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1095-8649.1992.tb02652.x},
   year = {1992},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3197,
   author = {Karås, Peter},
   title = {Recruitment of perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) from Baltic coastal waters},
   journal = {Archiv für Hydrobiologie},
   volume = {138},
   number = {1},
   pages = {99-121},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1127/archiv-hydrobiol/138/1996/99},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2156,
   author = {Kauhala, Kaarina and Bergenius, Mikaela and Isomursu, Marja and Raitaniemi, Jari},
   title = {Reproductive rate and nutritional status of Baltic ringed seals},
   journal = {Mammal Research},
   volume = {64},
   number = {1},
   pages = {109-120},
   ISSN = {2199-2401},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2542,
   author = {Kauhala, Kaarina and Bäcklin, Britt-Marie and Raitaniemi, Jari and Harding, Karin C.},
   title = {The effect of prey quality and ice conditions on the nutritional status of Baltic gray seals of different age groups},
   journal = {Mammal Research},
   volume = {62},
   number = {4},
   pages = {351-362},
   abstract = {We analyzed a long-term data set of the body condition of Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) over time and investigated how average subcutaneous blubber thickness of different age groups of seals corresponds to environmental factors. Blubber thickness of pups declined until 2010. The decreasing weight of 5–6-year-old herring (Clupea harengus), the main prey fish for Baltic gray seals, explained well the decline. In the Gulf of Finland, the blubber thickness of pups declined also in recent years (2011–2015) with declining number of days with permanent ice cover. In other regions, the blubber thickness of pups increased during recent years with increasing weight of herring. The blubber thickness of sub-adults in Baltic Proper and that of hunted adult females in the Bothnian Bay also increased during recent years, and the weight of age 6+ or 7-year-old herring best explained the increase. The blubber thickness of all age groups of seals was thinnest in the Bothnian Bay where also herring weight was lowest. There was a negative correlation between blubber thickness of seals and herring catch size (an index of herring abundance) suggesting that herring quality, not the quantity, is important for the nutritional status of Baltic gray seals. Nutritional status of gray seals may thus reveal changes in the marine food web which affect herring quality. Marine food web, in turn, may be affected, e.g., by climate change. The warming climate also has an impact on ice cover and thus body condition of seal pups.},
   ISSN = {2199-241X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-017-0329-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-017-0329-x},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2900,
   author = {Kauhala, Kaarina and Kurkilahti, Mika},
   title = {Delayed effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature during the birth year on adult size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals},
   journal = {Mammal Research},
   volume = {65},
   number = {1},
   pages = {117-126},
   abstract = {Environmental conditions of mammalian juveniles may have delayed effects on their life histories and fitness, such as body size or reproductive rate later in their lives. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis on Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and examined (1) the possible effects of prey fish quality and winter temperature on body condition of grey seal pups of both sexes and (2) the possible delayed impacts of pup environment on the body size and birth rate of adult grey seals. Body condition (blubber thickness) of especially female pups in April–May correlated negatively with winter temperatures, and body condition of male pups correlated positively with prey fish quality (herring Clupea harengus and sprat Sprattus sprattus weight). Males reached the asymptotic length at the age of 10.3 years, and body length of adult males (≥ 10 years old) was positively related to herring and sprat weight in their birth year. Females reached the asymptotic length at the age of 5.9 years. Birth rate of females (age 7–24 years) was negatively related to winter temperature in their birth year. We conclude that both changes in prey fish quality and climate may affect body condition of pups and thus also cause delayed effects on adult fitness: body size and reproductive rate of Baltic grey seals.},
   ISSN = {2199-241X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-019-00454-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13364-019-00454-1},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2461,
   author = {Kauhala, Kaarina and Kurkilahti, Mika and Ahola, Markus P. and Herrero, Annika and Karlsson, Olle and Kunnasranta, Mervi and Tiilikainen, Raisa and Vetemaa, Markus},
   title = {Age, Sex and Body Condition of Baltic Grey Seals: Are Problem Seals a Random Sample of the Population?},
   journal = {Annales Zoologici Fennici},
   volume = {52},
   number = {1–2},
   pages = {103-114},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5735/086.052.0209},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.5735/086.052.0209},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1664,
   author = {Kauker, Frank and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Modeling decadal variability of the Baltic Sea: 1. Reconstructing atmospheric surface data for the period 1902-1998},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {108},
   number = {C8},
   pages = {3268},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC001797},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3118,
   author = {Kautsky, N.},
   title = {Quantitative studies on gonad cycle, fecundity, reproductive output and recruitment in a baltic Mytilus edulis population},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {68},
   number = {2},
   pages = {143-160},
   abstract = {Since Mytilus edulis L. is a biomass dominant in the Baltic much interest is focused on the ecology of the species. In this paper an attempt is made to quantitatively cover the reproductive cycle of a Baltic M. edulis population in order to provide data for energy flow models and to discuss aspects of recruitment in this species. Histological preparations of gonads showed that gametogenesis started with declining temperatures in autumn and proceeded very slowly through winter. At the beginning of March when food was supplied during the spring phytoplankton bloom, rapid maturation took place. This was also revealed by an increase in meat weight of the mussels. Only one spawning period was recorded, from the middle of May until the beginning of June, due to food being strongly limited to the population during the rest of the year. The length of the larval period was estimated as being 5 to 6 wk and settlement was registered from the end of June through July. In general the large annual variations found in the Baltic with regard to temperature and food abundance give rise to a more marked annual pattern in the reproductive cycle than is encountered in other seas. Fecundity was assessed for two populations from 4-and 15-m depths from studies covering two annual cycles of the changes in the relation of shell length — meat weight. The size-related fecundity was found to be equal in both populations and related to food abundance and not to growth or age. Fecundity, expressed as weight loss at spawning, ranged from 0% in 2-mm mussels and increased from 38 to 52% in 10-to 30-mm mussels. The fecundity as percentage of biomass in full-grown Baltic M. edulis is of similar magnitude as in full-grown mussels from other areas despite the smaller size of Baltic mussels. The reproductive output for the total 160 km2 research area was calculated as being 1 200 tons dry weight or 80% of the standing stock, which, due to the particular features of the Baltic M. edulis population probably represents the larger part of the total mussel production. This reproductive output, calculated as 8·107 eggs·m-2 and corresponding to 50% of the total annual zooplankton production, may thus consitute an important food source for herring larvae and carnivorous zooplankton. Recruitment was divided into two phases: (1) Recruitment of juveniles (=settlement of larvae), and (2) recruitment to breeding stock. Monitoring studies of settlement on ropes and the year round presence of high abundances of mussels <2 mm indicate that settlement is in excess of the demands for maintaining population size and that most settled mussels form a pool of competitively suppressed non-growing individuals. Not until death of an already established mussel will these become recruited to the breeding population. Thus recruitment is possible throughout the year which stabilizes the population and maintains it near the carrying capacity of the area with regard to food and space availability.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00397601},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00397601},
   year = {1982},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3004,
   author = {Kerr, Richard A.},
   title = {A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {288},
   number = {5473},
   pages = {1984},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5473.1984},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/288/5473/1984.abstract},
   year = {2000},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3275,
   author = {Khatiwala, S. and Tanhua, T. and Mikaloff Fletcher, S. and Gerber, M. and Doney, S. C. and Graven, H. D. and Gruber, N. and McKinley, G. A. and Murata, A. and Ríos, A. F. and Sabine, C. L.},
   title = {Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {10},
   number = {4},
   pages = {2169-2191},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-2169-2013},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/2169/2013/},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2157,
   author = {Kiani, Sepideh and Irannezhad, Masoud and Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa and Moradkhani, Hamid and Kløve, Bjørn},
   title = {Effects of recent temperature variability and warming on the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road season in the northern Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Cold Regions Science and Technology},
   volume = {151},
   pages = {1-8},
   abstract = {In cold climate regions, ice roads are engineered as temporary winter transportation routes on frozen lakes, rivers and seas. The ice road season start, end and duration principally depend upon ice thickness, which is controlled by surface air temperature (SAT) in terms of freezing and thawing degree-days (FDD and TDD, respectively). Both FDD and TDD are indicators of climate variability and change, and are naturally influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs). This study examined the role of ACPs in interannual variations in the operating season of the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road in the Bay of Bothnia, northern Baltic Sea, during 1974–2009. Significant (p < .05) shortening in duration of the ice road season, mainly attributable to later start and earlier end days, was observed. In the Oulu-Hailuoto area, maximum ice thickness showed significant declines over time. This sea ice thinning was associated with SAT warming in cold months, manifested by statistically significant decreases in cumulative FDD during October–January within the water year (September–August). Significant increases in cumulative TDD during February–April, reflecting warmer SAT in mild months, resulted in earlier end day for the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road season. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was the most influential ACP for variations in cumulative FDD (October–January), and accordingly for sea ice thickness and start day of the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road season. However, cumulative TDD (February–April) showed significant positive correlations with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, which also controlled the end day of the Oulu-Hailuoto ice road season.},
   keywords = {Ice road season
Atmospheric circulation pattern
Ice thickness
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0165-232X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2018.02.010},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165232X17301854},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1944,
   author = {Killworth, Peter D. and Webb, David J. and Stainforth, David and Paterson, Stephen M.},
   title = {The Development of a Free-Surface Bryan–Cox–Semtner Ocean Model},
   journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
   volume = {21},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1333-1348},
   abstract = {Abstract A version of the Bryan–Cox–Semtner numerical ocean general circulation model, adapted to include a free surface, is described. The model is designed for the following uses: tidal studies (a tidal option is explicitly included); assimilation of altimetric data (since the surface elevation is now a prognostic variable); and in situations where accurate relaxation to obtain the streamfunction in the original model is too time consuming. Comparison is made between a 300-year run of the original model and the free-surface version, using a very coarse North Atlantic calculation as the basis. The results are very similar, differing only in the streamfunction over topography; this is to be expected, since the treatment of topographic torques on the barotropic flow differs because of the nature of the modifications.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<1333:tdoafs>2.0.co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0485%281991%29021%3C1333%3ATDOAFS%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2761,
   author = {Kim, Baek-Min and Son, Seok-Woo and Min, Seung-Ki and Jeong, Jee-Hoon and Kim, Seong-Joong and Zhang, Xiangdong and Shim, Taehyoun and Yoon, Jin-Ho},
   title = {Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {5},
   number = {1},
   pages = {4646},
   abstract = {Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea-ice, the mechanism that links sea-ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea-ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea-ice cover during early winter months (November–December), especially over the Barents–Kara seas, enhances the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January–February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5646},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3439,
   author = {Kirchner, Nina and Kuttenkeuler, Jakob and Rosqvist, Gunhild and Hancke, Marnie and Granebeck, Annika and Weckström, Jan and Weckström, Kaarina and Schenk, Frederik and Korhola, Atte and Eriksson, Pia},
   title = {A first continuous three-year temperature record from the dimictic arctic–alpine Lake Tarfala, northern Sweden},
   journal = {Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research},
   volume = {53},
   number = {1},
   pages = {69-79},
   ISSN = {1523-0430},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2021.1886577},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2021.1886577},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2653,
   author = {Kirchner, Nina and Noormets, Riko and Kuttenkeuler, Jakob and Erstorp, Elias Strandell and Holmlund, Erik Schytt and Rosqvist, Gunhild and Holmlund, Per and Wennbom, Marika and Karlin, Torbjörn},
   title = {High-resolution bathymetric mapping reveals subaqueous glacial landforms in the Arctic alpine lake Tarfala, Sweden},
   journal = {Journal of Quaternary Science},
   volume = {34},
   number = {6},
   pages = {452-462},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT In Arctic alpine regions, glacio-lacustrine environments respond sensitively to variations in climate conditions, impacting, for example,glacier extent and rendering former ice-contact lakes into ice distal lakes and vice versa. Lakefloors may hold morphological records of past glacier extent, but remoteness and long periods of ice cover on such lakes make acquisition of high-resolution bathymetric datasets challenging. Lake Tarfala and Kebnepakte Glacier, located in the Kebnekaise mountains, northern Sweden, comprise a small, dynamic glacio-lacustrine system holding a climate archive that is not well studied. Using an autonomous surface vessel, a high-resolution bathymetric dataset for Lake Tarfala was acquired in 2016, from which previously undiscovered end moraines and a potential grounding line feature were identified. For Kebnepakte Glacier, structure-from-motion photogrammetry was used to reconstruct its shape from photographs taken in 1910 and 1945. Combining these methods connects the glacial landform record identified at the lakefloor with the centennial-scale dynamic behaviour of Kebnepakte Glacier. During its maximum 20th century extent, attained c. 1910, Kebnepakte Glacier reached far into Lake Tarfala, but had retreated onto land by 1945, at an average of 7.9 m year–1. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
   ISSN = {0267-8179},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3112},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jqs.3112},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3198,
   author = {Kjellman, Jakob and Lappalainen, Jyrki and Urho, Lauri},
   title = {Influence of temperature on size and abundance dynamics of age-0 perch and pikeperch},
   journal = {Fisheries Research},
   volume = {53},
   number = {1},
   pages = {47-56},
   abstract = {Size and abundance of age-0 perch and pikeperch were studied in three adjacent bays in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea. The age-0 fish were sampled with a beach seine in littoral habitats from June to August in 1982–1993. The results showed that once the studied percids were recruited to the seine, at about the size of 10mm, the lengths were positively correlated with water temperature, measured as degree-day sums over a threshold of 10°C. The lengths differed among the three bays with time, but this was due to spatial differences in water temperatures. In June, the correlations between abundance and water temperature were positive, indicating an earlier recruitment to the seine in warmer years. In late July, abundance correlated negatively with the accumulated temperature, indicating an earlier outward migration in warmer years. Due to this temperature-dependent abundance pattern there was no single time period when the age-0 abundances were comparable between years. Only when the accumulated temperature at the time of seining was taken into account annual differences in summer abundance could be compared, and age-0 perch and pikeperch were progressively smaller and less abundant the colder the summer.},
   keywords = {Growth
CPUE
Long-term
Seine
Monitor},
   ISSN = {0165-7836},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-7836(00)00265-4},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783600002654},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2654,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Bärring, Lars and Nikulin, Grigory and Nilsson, Carin and Persson, Gunn and Strandberg, Gustav},
   title = {Production and use of regional climate model projections – A Swedish perspective on building climate services},
   journal = {Climate Services},
   volume = {2-3},
   pages = {15-29},
   abstract = {We describe the process of building a climate service centred on regional climate model results from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. The climate service has as its central facility a web service provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute where users can get an idea of various aspects of climate change from a suite of maps, diagrams, explaining texts and user guides. Here we present the contents of the web service and how this has been designed and developed in collaboration with users of the service in a dialogue reaching over more than a decade. We also present the ensemble of climate projections with RCA4 that provides the fundamental climate information presented at the web service. In this context, RCA4 has been used to downscale nine different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to 0.44° (c. 50km) horizontal resolution over Europe. Further, we investigate how this ensemble relates to the CMIP5 ensemble. We find that the iterative approach involving the users of the climate service has been successful as the service is widely used and is an important source of information for work on climate adaptation in Sweden. The RCA4 ensemble samples a large degree of the spread in the CMIP5 ensemble implying that it can be used to illustrate uncertainties and robustness in future climate change in Sweden. The results also show that RCA4 changes results compared to the underlying AOGCMs, sometimes in a systematic way.},
   keywords = {Climate services
Regional climate modelling
Sweden
CORDEX},
   ISSN = {2405-8807},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.06.004},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880716300334},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1915,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Döscher, Ralf and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Atmospheric response to different sea surface temperatures in the Baltic Sea: coupled versus uncoupled regional climate model experiments},
   journal = {Hydrology Research},
   volume = {36},
   number = {4-5},
   pages = {397-409},
   note = {10.2166/nh.2005.0030},
   abstract = {A climate change experiment with a fully coupled high resolution regional atmosphere–ocean model for the Baltic Sea is compared to an experiment with a stand-alone regional atmospheric model. Both experiments simulate 30-yr periods with boundary data from the same global climate model system. This particular global model system simulates very high sea surface temperatures during summer for the Baltic Sea at the end of this century under the investigated emission scenario. We show that the sea surface temperatures are less warm in the coupled regional model compared to the global model system and that this difference is dependent on the atmospheric circulation. In summers with a high NAO index and thereby relatively strong westerly flow over the North Atlantic the differences between the two models are small, while in summers with a weaker, more northerly flow over the Baltic Sea the differences are very large. The higher sea surface temperatures in the uncoupled experiment lead to an intensified hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea, with more than 30% additional precipitation in summer taken as an average over the full 30-yr period and over the entire Baltic Sea. The differences are mostly local, over the sea, but there are differences in surrounding land areas.},
   ISSN = {0029-1277},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2005.0030},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2005.0030},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1766,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Lind, Petter},
   title = {Changes in the water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin in future warmer climates as simulated by the regional climate model RCA3},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {14},
   pages = {114-124},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1767,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Hansson, U L F and Strandberg, Gustav and Ullerstig, Anders},
   title = {21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {63},
   number = {1},
   pages = {24-40},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2158,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Nikulin, Grigory and Strandberg, Gustav and Christensen, Ole B and Jacob, Daniela and Keuler, Klaus and Lenderink, Geert and van Meijgaard, Erik and Schär, Christoph and Somot, Samuel},
   title = {European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {9},
   number = {2},
   pages = {459-478},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-459-2018},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1768,
   author = {Kjellström, Erik and Ruosteenoja, Kimmo},
   title = {Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   pages = {281-291},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9219-y},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2982,
   author = {Kjerfve, Björn},
   title = {Oceanography of Chesapeake Bay},
   booktitle = {Hydrodynamics of Estuaries},
   editor = {Kjerfve, Björn},
   publisher = {Taylor & Francis group, CRC Press},
   address = {Boca Raton, USA},
   chapter = {10},
   pages = {16pp},
   ISBN = {9781351073264},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1201/9781351073264},
   year = {1988},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2159,
   author = {Klais, Riina and Tamminen, Timo and Kremp, Anke and Spilling, Kristian and An, Byoung Woong and Hajdu, Susanna and Olli, Kalle},
   title = {Spring phytoplankton communities shaped by interannual weather variability and dispersal limitation: Mechanisms of climate change effects on key coastal primary producers},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {2},
   pages = {753-762},
   abstract = {Spring bloom composition in the Baltic Sea, a partially ice-covered brackish coastal waterbody, is shaped by winter-spring weather conditions affecting the relative dominance of diatoms and a heterogeneous assemblage of cold-water dinoflagellates, dominated by the chain-forming Peridiniella catenata and a complex of at least three medium-sized, single-celled species: Biecheleria baltica, Gymnodinium corollarium, and Scrippsiella hangoei. During the last decades, the bloom community has dramatically changed in several basins. We analyze here a 30 yr time series of quantitative phytoplankton data, as predicted by hindcast modeled ice thickness and storminess for three distinct Baltic Sea localities, to verify climate-driven mechanisms affecting the spring bloom composition. Thick (> 30 cm) and long-lasting ice cover favored diatom-dominated spring blooms, and mild winters, with storms and thin ice cover (10 to 20 cm), supported blooms of the B. baltica complex. Dispersal limitation plays an important role in the spatial extent of blooms of the B. baltica complex, caused by intricate interplay of local hydrodynamics and the dinoflagellate life cycle. Proportion peaks of key phytoplankton groups have shifted about 10 d earlier in the northwestern Baltic Sea (P. catenata and diatoms) and in the Gulf of Riga (P. catenata). The significant weather effects imply future shifts in spring bloom composition and consequent biogeochemical cycles, driven by the predicted changes in winter storminess and decrease in ice cover extent and duration in climate change models.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.2.0753},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2013.58.2.0753},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1575,
   author = {Klais, Riina and Tamminen, Timo and Kremp, Anke and Spilling, Kristian and Olli, Kalle},
   title = {Decadal-scale changes of dinoflagellates and diatoms in the anomalous Baltic Sea spring bloom},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {6},
   pages = {e21567},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0021567},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2543,
   author = {Klauschies, Toni and Bauer, Barbara and Aberle-Malzahn, Nicole and Sommer, Ulrich and Gaedke, Ursula},
   title = {Climate change effects on phytoplankton depend on cell size and food web structure},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {159},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2455-2478},
   abstract = {We investigated the effects of warming on a natural phytoplankton community from the Baltic Sea, based on six mesocosm experiments conducted 2005–2009. We focused on differences in the dynamics of three phytoplankton size groups which are grazed to a variable extent by different zooplankton groups. While small-sized algae were mostly grazer-controlled, light and nutrient availability largely determined the growth of medium- and large-sized algae. Thus, the latter groups dominated at increased light levels. Warming increased mesozooplankton grazing on medium-sized algae, reducing their biomass. The biomass of small-sized algae was not affected by temperature, probably due to an interplay between indirect effects spreading through the food web. Thus, under the higher temperature and lower light levels anticipated for the next decades in the southern Baltic Sea, a higher share of smaller phytoplankton is expected. We conclude that considering the size structure of the phytoplankton community strongly improves the reliability of projections of climate change effects.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1904-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-012-1904-y},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3365,
   author = {Klawonn, Isabell and Lavik, Gaute and Böning, Philipp and Marchant, Hannah and Dekaezemacker, Julien and Mohr, Wiebke and Ploug, Helle},
   title = {Simple approach for the preparation of 15−15N2-enriched water for nitrogen fixation assessments: evaluation, application and recommendations},
   journal = {Frontiers in Microbiology},
   volume = {6},
   number = {769},
   abstract = {Recent findings revealed that the commonly used <sup>15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> tracer assay for the determination of dinitrogen (N<sub>2</sub>) fixation can underestimate the activity of aquatic N<sub>2</sub>-fixing organisms. Therefore, a modification to the method using pre-prepared <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water was proposed. Here, we present a rigorous assessment and outline a simple procedure for the preparation of <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water. We recommend to fill sterile-filtered water into serum bottles and to add <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> gas to the water in amounts exceeding the standard N<sub>2</sub> solubility, followed by vigorous agitation (vortex mixing ≥ 5 min). Optionally, water can be degassed at low-pressure (≥950 mbar) for 10 min prior to the <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> gas addition to indirectly enhance the <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> concentration. This preparation of <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water can be done within 1 h using standard laboratory equipment. The final <sup>15</sup>N-atom% excess was 5% after replacing 2–5% of the incubation volume with <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water. Notably, the addition of <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water can alter levels of trace elements in the incubation water due to the contact of <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>-enriched water with glass, plastic and rubber ware. In our tests, levels of trace elements (Fe, P, Mn, Mo, Cu, Zn) increased by up to 0.1 nmol L<sup>−1</sup> in the final incubation volume, which may bias rate measurements in regions where N<sub>2</sub> fixation is limited by trace elements. For these regions, we tested an alternative way to enrich water with <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub>. The <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> was injected as a bubble directly to the incubation water, followed by gentle shaking. Immediately thereafter, the bubble was replaced with water to stop the <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> equilibration. This approach achieved a <sup>15</sup>N-atom% excess of 6.6 ± 1.7% when adding 2 mL <sup>15−15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> per liter of incubation water. The herein presented methodological tests offer guidelines for the <sup>15</sup>N<sub>2</sub> tracer assay and thus, are crucial to circumvent methodological draw-backs for future N<sub>2</sub> fixation assessments.},
   keywords = {N2 fixation,Cyanobacteria,gas–liquid solution,15N2 gas,Gas solubility,Iron,Phosphorus,Nodularia spumigena},
   ISSN = {1664-302X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2015.00769},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmicb.2015.00769},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1663,
   author = {Klingbeil, Knut and Mohammadi-Aragh, Mahdi and Gräwe, Ulf and Burchard, Hans},
   title = {Quantification of spurious dissipation and mixing--Discrete variance decay in a Finite-Volume framework},
   journal = {Ocean Modelling},
   volume = {81},
   pages = {49-64},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.06.001},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1955,
   author = {Kniebusch, Madline and Meier, H. E. Markus and Neumann, Thomas and Börgel, Florian},
   title = {Temperature Variability of the Baltic Sea Since 1850 and Attribution to Atmospheric Forcing Variables},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {124},
   number = {6},
   pages = {4168-4187},
   abstract = {Abstract The Baltic Sea is highly impacted by global warming and other anthropogenic changes and is one of the fastest-warming marginal seas in the world. To detect trends in water temperature and to attribute them to atmospheric parameters, the results of two different ocean circulation models driven by reconstructed atmospheric forcing fields for the period 1850–2008 were analyzed. The model simulations were analyzed at temporal and spatial scales from seasonal to centennial and from intrabasin to basin, respectively. The strongest 150-year trends were found in the annual mean bottom temperature of the Bornholm Deep (0.15 K/decade) and in summer mean sea surface temperature (SST) in Bothnian Bay (0.09–0.12 K/decade). A comparison of the time periods 1856–2005 and 1978–2007 revealed that the SST trends strengthened tenfold. An attribution analysis showed that most of the SST variability could be explained by the surface air temperature (i.e., sensible heat flux) and the latent heat flux. Wind parallel to the coast and cloudiness additionally explained SST variability in the coastal zone affected by the variations in upwelling and in offshore areas affected by the variations in solar radiation, respectively. In contrast, the high variability in stratification caused by freshwater and saltwater inflows does not impact the long-term variability in the SST averaged over the Baltic Sea. The strongest SST trends since the 1980s can be explained by the superposition of global warming and a shift from the cold to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.},
   ISSN = {2169-9275},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc013948},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JC013948},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2427,
   author = {Kniebusch, Madline and Meier, H.E. Markus and Radtke, Hagen},
   title = {Changing Salinity Gradients in the Baltic Sea As a Consequence of Altered Freshwater Budgets},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {46},
   number = {16},
   pages = {9739-9747},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate change is expected to enhance the hydrological cycle in northern latitudes reducing the salinity in the Baltic Sea, a land-locked marginal sea with a large catchment area located in northern Europe. With the help of ocean simulations forced by historical atmospheric and hydrological reconstructions and local observations, we analyzed long-term changes in the sea surface salinity of the Baltic Sea as well as its latitudinal gradient. The variability of both is dominated by multidecadal oscillations with a period of about 30 years, while both atmospheric variables, wind and river runoff, contribute to this variability. Centennial changes show a statistically significant positive trend in the North-South gradient of sea surface salinity for 1900–2008. This change is mainly attributed to increased river runoff from the northernmost catchment indicating a footprint of the anthropogenic impact on salinity with consequences for the marine ecosystem and species distributions.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083902},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL083902},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2160,
   author = {Knight, Jeff R.},
   title = {The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {22},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1610-1625},
   abstract = {Instrumental sea surface temperature records in the North Atlantic Ocean are characterized by large multidecadal variability known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The lack of strong oscillatory forcing of the climate system at multidecadal time scales and the results of long unforced climate simulations have led to the widespread, although not ubiquitous, view that the AMO is an internal mode of climate variability. Here, a more objective examination of this hypothesis is performed using simulations with natural and anthropogenic forcings from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) database. Ensemble means derived from these data allow an estimate of the response of models to forcings, as averaging leads to cancellation of the internal variability between ensemble members. In general, the means of individual model ensembles appear to be inconsistent with observed temperatures, although small ensemble sizes result in uncertainty in this conclusion. Combining the ensembles from different models creates a multimodel ensemble of sufficient size to allow for a good estimate of the forced response. This shows that the variability in observed North Atlantic temperatures possess a clearly distinct signature to the climate response expected from forcings. The reliability of this finding is confirmed by sampling those models with low decadal internal variability and by comparing simulated and observed trends. In contrast to the inconsistency with the ensemble mean, the observations are consistent with the spread of responses in the ensemble members, suggesting they can be accounted for by the combined effects of forcings and internal variability. In the most recent period, the results suggest that the North Atlantic is warming faster than expected, and that the AMO entered a positive phase in the 1990s. The differences found between observed and ensemble mean temperatures could arise through errors in the observational data, errors in the models’ response to forcings or in the forcings themselves, or as a result of genuine internal variability. Each of these possibilities is discussed, and it is concluded that internal variability within the natural climate system is the most likely origin of the differences. Finally, the estimate of internal variability obtained using the model-derived ensemble mean is proposed as a new way of defining the AMO, which has important advantages over previous definitions.},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2628.1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2628.1},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2161,
   author = {Knight, Jeff R. and Allan, Robert J. and Folland, Chris K. and Vellinga, Michael and Mann, Michael E.},
   title = {A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {32},
   number = {20},
   pages = {L20708},
   abstract = {Analyses of global climate from measurements dating back to the nineteenth century show an ‘Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation’ (AMO) as a leading large-scale pattern of multidecadal variability in surface temperature. Yet it is not possible to determine whether these fluctuations are genuinely oscillatory from the relatively short observational record alone. Using a 1400 year climate model calculation, we are able to simulate the observed pattern and amplitude of the AMO. The results imply the AMO is a genuine quasi-periodic cycle of internal climate variability persisting for many centuries, and is related to variability in the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC). This relationship suggests we can attempt to reconstruct past THC changes, and we infer an increase in THC strength over the last 25 years. Potential predictability associated with the mode implies natural THC and AMO decreases over the next few decades independent of anthropogenic climate change.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl024233},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005GL024233},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2032,
   author = {Knight, Jeff R. and Folland, Chris K. and Scaife, Adam A.},
   title = {Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {33},
   number = {17},
   abstract = {The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a near-global scale mode of observed multidecadal climate variability with alternating warm and cool phases over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Many prominent examples of regional multidecadal climate variability have been related to the AMO, such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall, Atlantic hurricanes and North American and European summer climate. The relative shortness of the instrumental climate record, however, limits confidence in these observationally derived relationships. Here, we seek evidence of these links in the 1400 year control simulation of the HadCM3 climate model, which produces a realistic long-lived AMO as part of its internal climate variability. By permitting the analysis of more AMO cycles than are present in observations, we find that the model confirms the association of the AMO with almost all of the above phenomena. This has implications for the predictability of regional climate.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026242},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2006GL026242},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2789,
   author = {Knoll, Lesley B. and Sharma, Sapna and Denfeld, Blaize A. and Flaim, Giovanna and Hori, Yukari and Magnuson, John J. and Straile, Dietmar and Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.},
   title = {Consequences of lake and river ice loss on cultural ecosystem services},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography Letters},
   volume = {4},
   number = {5},
   pages = {119-131},
   abstract = {People extensively use lakes and rivers covered by seasonal ice. Although ice cover duration has been declining over the past 150?years for Northern Hemisphere freshwaters, we know relatively little about how ice loss directly affects humans. Here, we synthesize the cultural ecosystem services (i.e., services that provide intangible or nonmaterial benefits) and associated benefits supported by inland ice. We also provide, for the first time, empirical examples that give quantitative evidence for a winter warming effect on a wide range of ice-related cultural ecosystem services and benefits. We show that in recent decades, warmer air temperatures delayed the opening date of winter ice roads and led to cancellations of spiritual ceremonies, outdoor ice skating races, and ice fishing tournaments. Additionally, our synthesis effort suggests unexploited data sets that allow for the use of integrative approaches to evaluate the interplay between inland ice loss and society.},
   ISSN = {2378-2242},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10116},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10116},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1662,
   author = {Knudsen, Mads Faurschou and Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig and Jacobsen, Bo Holm and Kuijpers, Antoon},
   title = {Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {2},
   pages = {178},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1186},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2702,
   author = {Knudsen, Martin},
   title = {Ein hydrographischer lehrsatz},
   journal = {Annalen der Hydrographie und Maritimen Meteorologie},
   volume = {28},
   number = {7},
   pages = {316-320},
   year = {1900},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1875,
   author = {Knutti, Reto and Sedláček, Jan},
   title = {Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {3},
   number = {4},
   pages = {369-373},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3200,
   author = {Kokkonen, Eevi and Heikinheimo, Outi and Pekcan-Hekim, Zeynep and Vainikka, Anssi},
   title = {Effects of water temperature and pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) abundance on the stock–recruitment relationship of Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) in the northern Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Hydrobiologia},
   volume = {841},
   number = {1},
   pages = {79-94},
   abstract = {How spawning stock size, environmental conditions and recruitment relate to each other is an essential question in understanding population dynamics of exploited fish stocks. We estimated the recruitment of Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis), one of the most important species in coastal fisheries in northern Baltic Sea, and examined the factors that determine perch recruitment success. We hypothesized that perch spawning population biomass and summer water temperature would increase perch recruitment, with potential density dependence, while the effect of the population size of pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) would be negative. Different forms of general stock–recruitment functions, with and without density dependence, and with and without water temperature and pikeperch population size as environmental factors were fitted to long-term (1981–2014) stock assessment data of perch and pikeperch in the Archipelago Sea, southwestern coast of Finland. Perch spawning stock biomass (ages 5–14), water temperature in June–July and pikeperch stock size (ages ≥ 1) at spawning year best explained variation in perch recruitment. The results supported the predictions: perch recruitment increased with spawning stock in density-dependent manner, pikeperch effect on perch recruitment was negative and summer temperature effect was positive suggesting environmentally affected competitive interaction between these two percids.},
   ISSN = {1573-5117},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-019-04008-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-019-04008-z},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1661,
   author = {Kondratyev, K Ya},
   title = {Radiation in the Atmosphere.},
   journal = {New York, NY (USA): Academic Press},
   pages = {915 p.},
   year = {1969},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2935,
   author = {Kong, Deguo and MacLeod, Matthew and Cousins, Ian T.},
   title = {Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model},
   journal = {Chemosphere},
   volume = {110},
   pages = {31-40},
   abstract = {The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region.},
   keywords = {Climate change
Baltic Sea
Persistent organic chemicals
Multimedia model},
   ISSN = {0045-6535},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.02.044},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0045653514002483},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2967,
   author = {Kopp, Robert E. and Horton, Radley M. and Little, Christopher M. and Mitrovica, Jerry X. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Rasmussen, D. J. and Strauss, Benjamin H. and Tebaldi, Claudia},
   title = {Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites},
   journal = {Earth's Future},
   volume = {2},
   number = {8},
   pages = {383-406},
   abstract = {Abstract Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.},
   ISSN = {2328-4277},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000239},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014EF000239},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@phdthesis{RN2790,
   author = {Korhonen, Johanna},
   title = {Long-term changes and variability of the winter and spring season hydrological regime in Finland},
   university = {University of Helsinki},
   type = {Doctoral dissertation},
   DOI = {http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-951-51-2800-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN3251,
   author = {Kornobis, S.},
   title = {Ecology of Dreissena polymorpha (Pal.) (Dreissena: Bivalvia) in lakes receiving heated water discharges},
   journal = {Polskie Archiwum Hydrobiologii},
   volume = {24},
   number = {4},
   pages = {531-545},
   note = {Classification: 002A14: Ecologie animale, vegetale et microbienne / Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Inist-CNRS record number PASCAL7950057250},
   keywords = {BIVALVIA
POLLUTION
TEMPERATURE
POLOGNE
ECOLOGIE
INVERTEBRATA
MOLLUSCA
POLLUTION THERMIQUE
MILIEU DULCAQUICOLE
LAC
EUROPE
DREISSENA POLYMORPHA
POLAND
ECOLOGY
THERMAL POLLUTION
FRESHWATER ENVIRONMENT
ECOLOGIA},
   year = {1977},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2544,
   author = {Korpinen, Samuli and Honkanen, Tuija and Vesakoski, Outi and Hemmi, Anne and Koivikko, Riitta and Loponen, Jyrki and Jormalainen, Veijo},
   title = {Macroalgal Communities Face the Challenge of Changing Biotic Interactions: Review with Focus on the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {36},
   number = {2},
   pages = {203-211, 9},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[203:MCFTCO]2.0.CO;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[203:MCFTCO]2.0.CO},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3440,
   author = {Kortsch, Susanne and Frelat, Romain and Pecuchet, Laurene and Olivier, Pierre and Putnis, Ivars and Bonsdorff, Erik and Ojaveer, Henn and Jurgensone, Iveta and Strāķe, Solvita and Rubene, Gunta and Krūze, Ēriks and Nordström, Marie C.},
   title = {Disentangling temporal food web dynamics facilitates understanding of ecosystem functioning},
   journal = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
   volume = {90},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1205-1216},
   abstract = {Abstract Studying how food web structure and function vary through time represents an opportunity to better comprehend and anticipate ecosystem changes. Yet, temporal studies of highly resolved food web structure are scarce. With few exceptions, most temporal food web studies are either too simplified, preventing a detailed assessment of structural properties or binary, missing the temporal dynamics of energy fluxes among species. Using long-term, multi-trophic biomass data coupled with highly resolved information on species feeding relationships, we analysed food web dynamics in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea) over more than three decades (1981–2014). We combined unweighted (topology-based) and weighted (biomass- and flux-based) food web approaches, first, to unravel how distinct descriptors can highlight differences (or similarities) in food web dynamics through time, and second, to compare temporal dynamics of food web structure and function. We find that food web descriptors vary substantially and distinctively through time, likely reflecting different underlying ecosystem processes. While node- and link-weighted metrics reflect changes related to alterations in species dominance and fluxes, unweighted metrics are more sensitive to changes in species and link richness. Comparing unweighted, topology-based metrics and flux-based functions further indicates that temporal changes in functions cannot be predicted using unweighted food web structure. Rather, information on species population dynamics and weighted, flux-based networks should be included to better comprehend temporal food web dynamics. By integrating unweighted, node- and link-weighted metrics, we here demonstrate how different approaches can be used to compare food web structure and function, and identify complementary patterns of change in temporal food web dynamics, which enables a more complete understanding of the ecological processes at play in ecosystems undergoing change.},
   ISSN = {0021-8790},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13447},
   url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2656.13447},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1576,
   author = {Koslowski, Gerhard and Loewe, Peter},
   title = {The western Baltic sea ice season in terms of a mass-related severity index: 1879–1992},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {46},
   number = {1},
   pages = {66-74},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.00006.x},
   year = {1994},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2162,
   author = {Kotilainen, Aarno T. and Arppe, Laura and Dobosz, Slawomir and Jansen, Eystein and Kabel, Karoline and Karhu, Juha and Kotilainen, Mia M. and Kuijpers, Antoon and Lougheed, Bryan C. and Meier, H. E. Markus and Moros, Matthias and Neumann, Thomas and Porsche, Christian and Poulsen, Niels and Rasmussen, Peter and Ribeiro, Sofia and Risebrobakken, Bjørg and Ryabchuk, Daria and Schimanke, Semjon and Snowball, Ian and Spiridonov, Mikhail and Virtasalo, Joonas J. and Weckström, Kaarina and Witkowski, Andrzej and Zhamoida, Vladimir},
   title = {Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {43},
   number = {1},
   pages = {60-68},
   abstract = {Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0477-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0477-4},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3076,
   author = {Kotlarski and Others},
   title = {Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {7},
   pages = {1297-1333},
   DOI = {10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3127,
   author = {Kotta, J. and Wernberg, T. and Jänes, H. and Kotta, I. and Nurkse, K. and Pärnoja, M. and Orav-Kotta, H.},
   title = {Novel crab predator causes marine ecosystem regime shift},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {4956},
   abstract = {The escalating spread of invasive species increases the risk of disrupting the pathways of energy flow through native ecosystems, modify the relative importance of resource (‘bottom-up’) and consumer (‘top-down’) control in food webs and thereby govern biomass production at different trophic levels. The current lack of understanding of interaction cascades triggered by non-indigenous species underscores the need for more basic exploratory research to assess the degree to which novel species regulate bottom-up and/or top down control. Novel predators are expected to produce the strongest effects by decimating consumers, and leading to the blooms of primary producers. Here we show how the arrival of the invasive crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii into the Baltic Sea – a bottom-up controlled ecosystem where no equivalent predators ever existed – appeared to trigger not only strong top-down control resulting in a decline in richness and biomass of benthic invertebrates, but also an increase in pelagic nutrients and phytoplankton biomass. Thus, the addition of a novel interaction – crab predation – to an ecosystem has a potential to reduce the relative importance of bottom-up regulation, relax benthic-pelagic coupling and reallocate large amounts of nutrients from benthic to pelagic processes, resulting in a regime shift to a degraded ecosystem state.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23282-w},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23282-w},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3342,
   author = {Kotta, Jonne and Futter, Martyn and Kaasik, Ants and Liversage, Kiran and Rätsep, Merli and Barboza, Francisco R. and Bergström, Lena and Bergström, Per and Bobsien, Ivo and Díaz, Eliecer and Herkül, Kristjan and Jonsson, Per R. and Korpinen, Samuli and Kraufvelin, Patrik and Krost, Peter and Lindahl, Odd and Lindegarth, Mats and Lyngsgaard, Maren Moltke and Mühl, Martina and Sandman, Antonia Nyström and Orav-Kotta, Helen and Orlova, Marina and Skov, Henrik and Rissanen, Jouko and Šiaulys, Andrius and Vidakovic, Aleksandar and Virtanen, Elina},
   title = {Cleaning up seas using blue growth initiatives: Mussel farming for eutrophication control in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
   volume = {709},
   pages = {136144},
   abstract = {Eutrophication is a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems globally with pronounced negative effects in the Baltic and other semi-enclosed estuaries and regional seas, where algal growth associated with excess nutrients causes widespread oxygen free “dead zones” and other threats to sustainability. Decades of policy initiatives to reduce external (land-based and atmospheric) nutrient loads have so far failed to control Baltic Sea eutrophication, which is compounded by significant internal release of legacy phosphorus (P) and biological nitrogen (N) fixation. Farming and harvesting of the native mussel species (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) is a promising internal measure for eutrophication control in the brackish Baltic Sea. Mussels from the more saline outer Baltic had higher N and P content than those from either the inner or central Baltic. Despite their relatively low nutrient content, harvesting farmed mussels from the central Baltic can be a cost-effective complement to land-based measures needed to reach eutrophication status targets and is an important contributor to circularity. Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal is more dependent on farm type than mussel nutrient content, suggesting the need for additional development of farm technology. Furthermore, current regulations are not sufficiently conducive to implementation of internal measures, and may constitute a bottleneck for reaching eutrophication status targets in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere.},
   keywords = {Aquaculture
Blue growth
Eutrophication control
Internal measures
Mussel farming
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0048-9697},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136144},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719361406},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3123,
   author = {Kotta, Jonne and Kotta, Ilmar and Simm, Mart and Põllupüü, Maria},
   title = {Separate and interactive effects of eutrophication and climate variables on the ecosystem elements of the Gulf of Riga},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {84},
   number = {4},
   pages = {509-518},
   abstract = {There is currently a critical knowledge gap in how eutrophication and climate variables separately and interactively impact the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Based on long-term monitoring data we quantified the separate and combined impacts of nutrient loading, temperature, salinity, and wind conditions on zooplankton, zoobenthos and fish inhabiting a brackish water ecosystem in the Gulf of Riga. Changes in zoobenthos communities and herring stock were largely explained by climate variables. Zooplankton species were related to both eutrophication and climate variables, and models combining all environmental variables explained additional variation in zooplankton data compared to the separate models of climate and eutrophication. This suggests that zoobenthos communities and herring stock are largely driven by weather conditions, whereas the combined effect of weather and nutrient loads are likely the cause for dynamic zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Riga.},
   keywords = {Baltic sea
climate change
ecosystem
eutrophication
long-term changes},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2009.07.014},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771409003394},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2545,
   author = {Kotta, Jonne and Vanhatalo, Jarno and Jänes, Holger and Orav-Kotta, Helen and Rugiu, Luca and Jormalainen, Veijo and Bobsien, Ivo and Viitasalo, Markku and Virtanen, Elina and Sandman, Antonia Nyström and Isaeus, Martin and Leidenberger, Sonja and Jonsson, Per R. and Johannesson, Kerstin},
   title = {Integrating experimental and distribution data to predict future species patterns},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1},
   pages = {1821},
   abstract = {Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38416-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38416-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3119,
   author = {Kovtun, A. and Torn, K. and Martin, G. and Kullas, T. and Kotta, J. and Suursaar, Ü},
   title = {Influence of abiotic environmental conditions on spatial distribution of charophytes in the coastal waters of West Estonian Archipelago, Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},
   pages = {412-416},
   abstract = {[Charophytes are submerged macroalgae with well-developed thallus and complex morphology, which can be found in fresh and brackish water bodies. The order Charales includes over 300 species worldwide of which 7 are found in the Estonian coastal sea. The sheltered, soft-bottom and shallow environment in the Gulf of Riga and the highly indented West Estonian Archipelago Sea (Väinameri) offer suitable substrate, shelter, depth, and salinity range for their growth. Their spatial distribution depends mostly on light conditions (via depth and substrate properties), waves (via exposure, depth and slope), and bottom substrate. Preferring clay-sandy bottoms and sheltered brackish-water bays, Chara aspera, Tolypella nidifica and Chara canescens are the most abundant species. In the future, higher storm surges, increased storm wave height and turbidity may cause changes in the composition and spatial patterns of macrophyte communities. As environmental variability increases, the species with narrow tolerance ranges will probably suffer.]},
   ISSN = {07490208, 15515036},
   url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/26482204},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2332,
   author = {Kratzer, Susanne and Håkansson, Bertil and Charlotte, Sahlin},
   title = {Assessing Secchi and Photic Zone Depth in the Baltic Sea from Satellite Data},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {32},
   number = {8},
   pages = {577-585},
   abstract = {[Long-term trends in the Secchi depth of the Baltic Sea have been interpreted in terms of eutrophication (1, 2). The spectral attenuation coefficient Kd (490) can be estimated from remote sensing data (3). Given the empirical and theoretical relationships between diffuse attenuation and Secchi depth, it is therefore possible to estimate the trophic state from remote sensing data. This paper considers relationships among remotely sensed and in-water measured Kd (490), and Secchi depth data obtained during dedicated sea-truthing campaigns in the eastern Baltic Proper in 1999 (4) and in the western Baltic Proper/Himmerfjärden area during 2001 and 2002. In-water measurements are used to establish the relationship between the PAR and the spectral attenuation coefficient in the Baltic Sea via regression analysis. The analysis showed that in the area of investigation Kd (490) is about 1.48 times higher than Kd (PAR). This relationship is then used to define the link between the photic zone depth and the remote sensing optical depth, $K_{d}(490)^{-1}$. The results show that the depth of the euphotic zone is about 6.8 times $K_{d}(490)^{-1}$. The regression analysis between Kd (PAR) and Secchi depth confirmed previous work that Kd (PAR) is about 1.7 of the inverse Secchi depth. Furthermore, an in-water algorithm between Secchi depth and Kd (490) is used to simulate a Secchi depth map of the Baltic Sea from SeaWiFS Kd (490) data. This map is verified against sea-truthing data. Kd (490) data derived from satellite is compared to in situ Kd (490), and the sources of error are discussed.]},
   ISSN = {00447447, 16547209},
   url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4315443},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3354,
   author = {Krause-Jensen, Dorte and Duarte, Carlos M. and Sand-Jensen, Kaj and Carstensen, Jacob},
   title = {Century-long records reveal shifting challenges to seagrass recovery},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {27},
   number = {3},
   pages = {563-575},
   abstract = {Abstract Global losses over the 20th century placed seagrass ecosystems among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, with eutrophication, and associated deterioration of the submarine light environment identified as the main driver. Growing appreciation of the ecological and societal benefits of healthy seagrass meadows has stimulated efforts to protect and restore them, largely focused on reducing nutrient input to coastal waters. Here we analyze a unique data set spanning 135 years on eelgrass (Zostera marina), the dominant seagrass of the northern hemisphere. We show that meadows in the Western Baltic Sea exhibited major declines relative to historic (1890–1910) reference due to the wasting disease in the 1930s followed by eutrophication peaking in the 1980s, but have only shown modest improvement despite major eutrophication mitigation, halving nitrogen input since the 1980s. Across the past century, we identified generally shallower colonization depths of eelgrass for a given submarine light penetration and, hence, increased apparent light requirements. This suggests that eelgrass recovery is limited by additional stressors. Our study indicates that bottom trawling and intense recent warming (0.5°C per decade, 1985–2018), which impact on deeper and shallower meadows, respectively, suppress eelgrass from fully recovering from eutrophication. Warming is most severe in shallow turbid waters, while clear-water areas offer eelgrass refugia from warming in deeper, cooler waters; but trawling can prevent eelgrass from reaching these refugia. Efforts to reduce nutrient input and thereby improve water clarity have been instrumental in avoiding a catastrophic loss of eelgrass ecosystems. However, local-scale future management must, in addition, reduce bottom trawling to facilitate eelgrass reaching deeper, cooler refugia, and increase resilience toward realized and further warming. Warming needs to be limited by meeting global climate change mitigation goals.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15440},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.15440},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2025,
   author = {Krauss, W. and Brügge, B.},
   title = {Wind-Produced Water Exchange between the Deep Basins of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},
   volume = {21},
   number = {3},
   pages = {373-384},
   abstract = {The renewal of oxygen-rich water in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea depends mainly on the proper wind conditions. Strong westerly winds over the western Baltic yield an inclination in sea level from the Skagerrak to the Baltic Proper and strong inflow of saline and oxygen-rich water into the western Baltic. This water then penetrates into the Bornholm Basin. Numerical model runs show that northerly and easterly winds are necessary in order to transport these waters from the Bornholm Basin into the Gotland Basin. A comparison between model results and observations in the Bornholm Basin and in Stolpe Channel supports these results.},
   ISSN = {0022-3670},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<0373:Wpwebt>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1991)021<0373:WPWEBT>2.0.CO},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3424,
   author = {Kreienkamp, Frank and Lorenz, Philip and Geiger, Tobias},
   title = {Statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections show stronger warming for Germany},
   journal = {Atmosphere},
   volume = {11},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1245},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111245},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2546,
   author = {Kremp, Anke and Godhe, Anna and Egardt, Jenny and Dupont, Sam and Suikkanen, Sanna and Casabianca, Silvia and Penna, Antonella},
   title = {Intraspecific variability in the response of bloom-forming marine microalgae to changed climate conditions},
   journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
   volume = {2},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1195-1207},
   abstract = {Abstract Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24°C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain-specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain-specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth—slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short-term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.},
   ISSN = {2045-7758},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.245},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ece3.245},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2547,
   author = {Kremp, Anke and Oja, Johanna and LeTortorec, Anniina H. and Hakanen, Päivi and Tahvanainen, Pia and Tuimala, Jarno and Suikkanen, Sanna},
   title = {Diverse seed banks favour adaptation of microalgal populations to future climate conditions},
   journal = {Environmental Microbiology},
   volume = {18},
   number = {2},
   pages = {679-691},
   abstract = {Summary Selection of suitable genotypes from diverse seed banks may help phytoplankton populations to cope with environmental changes. This study examines whether the high genotypic diversity found in the Baltic cyst pool of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii is coupled to phenotypic variability that could aid short-term adaptation. Growth rates, cellular toxicities and bioluminescence of 34 genetically different clones isolated from cyst beds of four Baltic bloom sites were determined in batch culture experiments along temperature and salinity gradients covering present and future conditions in the Baltic Sea. For all parameters a significant effect of genotype on the response to temperature and salinity changes was identified. General or site-specific effects of the two factors remained minor. Clones thriving at future conditions were different from the best performing at present conditions, suggesting that genotypic shifts may be expected in the future. Increased proportions of highly potent saxitoxin were observed as a plastic response to temperature increase, indicating a potential for higher toxicity of future blooms. The observed standing variation in Baltic seed banks of A. ostenfeldii suggests that the population is likely to persist under environmental change.},
   ISSN = {1462-2912},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.13070},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1462-2920.13070},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1770,
   author = {Kreus, Markus and Schartau, Markus and Engel, Anja and Nausch, Monika and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Variations in the elemental ratio of organic matter in the central Baltic Sea: Part I-Linking primary production to remineralization},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {100},
   pages = {25-45},
   abstract = {For most marine ecosystems the growth of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and
the associated amount of nitrogen fixation are regulated by the
availability of phosphorus. The intensity of summer blooms of nitrogen
(N-2) fixing algae in the Baltic Sea is assumed to be determinable from
a surplus of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) that remains after the
spring bloom has ended. But this surplus DIP concentration is observed
to continuously decrease at times when no appreciable nitrogen fixation
is measured. This peculiarity is currently discussed and has afforded
different model interpretations for the Baltic Sea. In our study we
propose a dynamical model solution that explains these observations with
variations of the elemental carbon-to-nitrogen-to-phosphorus (C:N:P)
ratio during distinct periods of organic matter production and
remineralization. The biogeochemical model resolves seasonal C, N and P
fluxes with depth at the Baltic Sea monitoring site BY15, based on three
assumptions: (1) DIP is utilized by algae though not needed for
immediate growth, (2) the uptake of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)
is hampered when the algae's phosphorus (P) quota is low, and (3) carbon
assimilation continues at times of nutrient depletion. Model results
describe observed temporal variations of DIN, DIP and chlorophyll-a
concentrations along with partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO(2)).
In contrast to other model studies, our solution does not require N-2
fixation to occur shortly after the spring bloom to explain DIP drawdown
and pCO(2) levels. Model estimates of annual N-2 fixation are 297 +/- 24
mmol N m(-2) a(-1). Estimates of total production are 14200 +/- 700 mmol
C m(-2) a(-1), 1400 +/- 70 mmol N m(-2) a(-1), and 114 +/- 5 mmol P
m(-2) a(-1) for the upper 50 m. The models C, N and P fluxes disclose
preferential remineralization of P and of organic N that was introduced
via N-2 fixation. Our results are in support of the idea that P uptake
by phytoplankton during the spring bloom contributes to the consecutive
availability of labile dissolved organic phosphorus (LDOP). The LDOP is
retained within upper layers and its remineralization affects algal
growth in summer, during periods of noticeable N-2 fixation. (C) 2014
Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
   keywords = {Ecosystem model
Variable stoichiometry
Nitrogen fixation
Preferential remineralization
Biogeochemical budgets
Baltic Sea},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2014.06.015},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3014,
   author = {Kriaučiūnienė, J and Meilutyte-Barauskiene, D and Reihan, A and Koltsova, T and Lizuma, L and Šarauskiene, D},
   title = {Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Baltic States},
   journal = {Boreal Environment Research},
   volume = {17},
   number = {2},
   pages = {150-162},
   ISSN = {1239-6095},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1771,
   author = {Kristiansen, Trond and Aas, Eyvind},
   title = {Water type quantification in the Skagerrak, the Kattegat and off the Jutland west coast},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {57},
   number = {2},
   pages = {177-195},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceano.2014.11.002},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN2462,
   author = {Krug, Joachim and Eriksson, Hillevi and Heidecke, Claudia and Kellomäki, Seppo and Köhl, Michael and Lindner, Marcus and Saikkonen, Kari},
   title = {Socio-economic Impacts—Forestry and Agriculture},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {BACC II Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {399-409},
   abstract = {Climate change affects the vulnerability and productivity of forestry and agricultural systems, predominantly by changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. Indirect impacts are altered risk of damage, for example, by longer periods of droughtDroughtstress and other biotic and abiotic disturbances. While southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea basin are likely to experience a net impact of climate change that is negative for production, northern and western regions are likely to experience a general increase in production. As a result, land-use potentials will change and will foster adaptation and mitigation measures. In the northern region, forest management adaptation may lead to substantial yield increases, while in the south management, adaptation may be required to counter deteriorating conditions. Comparable conclusions can be drawn for agricultural management: if adaptation potentials are fully exploited, substantial yield increases can be expected for certain cropCropspecies. In the southern areas and for certain species, deteriorating conditions and possibly increasing climatic variability are projected. Both climate change impacts and human responses will affect socio‐economic conditions in the Baltic Sea basin.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_21},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_21},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{RN2163,
   author = {Kube, J and Brenning, U and Kruch, W and Nehls, HW},
   title = {Bestandsentwicklung von bodenbrütenden Küstenvögeln auf Inseln in der Wismar-Bucht (südwestliche Ostsee): Lektionen aus 50 Jahren Prädatorenmanagement},
   journal = {Vogelwelt},
   volume = {126},
   pages = {299-320},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2251,
   author = {Kudryavtseva, N. and Soomere, T.},
   title = {Satellite altimetry reveals spatial patterns of variations in the Baltic Sea wave climate},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {3},
   pages = {697-706},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-697-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/697/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{RN3239,
   author = {Kukliński, P. and Witalis, B.},
   title = {Wpływ wód balastowych na bioróżnorodność organizmów poroślowych portu Gdynia},
   type = {Raport},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{RN3018,
   author = {Kuliński, K. and Pempkowiak, J.},
   title = {The carbon budget of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {8},
   number = {11},
   pages = {3219-3230},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-3219-2011},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/8/3219/2011/},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3448,
   author = {Kuliński, K. and Rehder, G. and Asmala, E. and Bartosova, A. and Carstensen, J. and Gustafsson, B. and Hall, P. O. J. and Humborg, C. and Jilbert, T. and Jürgens, K. and Meier, M. and Müller-Karulis, B. and Naumann, M. and Olesen, J. E. and Savchuk, O. and Schramm, A. and Slomp, C. P. and Sofiev, M. and Sobek, A. and Szymczycha, B. and Undeman, E.},
   title = {Baltic Earth Assessment Report on the biogeochemistry of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics Discussions},
   volume = {2021},
   pages = {1-93},
   note = {ESDD
https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2021-33/esd-2021-33.pdf},
   ISSN = {2190-4995},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-33},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2021-33/},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2268,
   author = {Kuliński, K. and Schneider, B. and Szymczycha, B. and Stokowski, M.},
   title = {Structure and functioning of the acid–base system in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1107-1120},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/1107/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2164,
   author = {Kuliński, Karol and Hammer, Karoline and Schneider, Bernd and Schulz-Bull, Detlef},
   title = {Remineralization of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Marine Chemistry},
   volume = {181},
   pages = {10-17},
   abstract = {To assess the remineralization dynamics of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) in Baltic Sea water a set of incubation experiments was performed. Baltic Sea water was spiked with low molecular weight (LMW) and high molecular weight (HMW) tDOC extracted from water of the rivers Vistula and Oder. In parallel, incubation experiments were performed with seawater in order to determine the remineralization dynamics of Baltic Sea DOC (mDOC) that is characteristic for the marine environment but not necessarily of marine origin. At 10 consecutive time steps in the course of an incubation period of 188days, the concentrations of O2 and total CO2 (CT) were measured to assess the O2 consumption and CO2 production. The latter was used as a measure for the DOC mineralization. Three DOC fractions having different reactivity were identified. The refractory fraction was predominant in all samples and amounted to 66% in mDOC and about 80% in the tDOC. Two fractions of bioavailable DOC, which differed significantly concerning their reactivity, were identified in both the mDOC and tDOC. The more reactive labile fraction contributed to about 3% to LMW and HMW tDOC whereas 10% of the mDOC consisted of labile DOC. The half-life time for labile DOC ranged between 3.2d and 6.4d. The less reactive bioavailable fraction, the semi-labile DOC, showed half-life times of weeks to months. The total bioavailable fraction of the mDOC (34%) was higher than that of tDOC by a factor of about 2. Furthermore, it was characterized by a bulk half-life time of 10.6d that was significantly lower than those for tDOC from the two rivers (32.5d and 21.7d). The measurements of the oxygen consumption and total CO2 production during the remineralization yielded a ΔO2:ΔCT molar ratio close to 1.0 for the terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) whereas an increased ratio of 1.2–1.5 was observed during the remineralization of the Baltic Sea DOM. This indicates that tDOM consists of carbohydrate-like compounds. The higher O2 demand for the mineralization of mDOM can be explained by a higher proportion of lipid-like compounds and by nitrification.},
   keywords = {DOC decay
O consumption
DOC remineralization kinetics
CO system},
   ISSN = {0304-4203},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2016.03.002},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304420316300160},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1772,
   author = {Kuliński, Karol and Schneider, Bernd and Hammer, Karoline and Machulik, Ulrike and Schulz-Bull, Detlef},
   title = {The influence of dissolved organic matter on the acid--base system of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {132},
   pages = {106-115},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.01.011},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2166,
   author = {Kuliński, Karol and Szymczycha, Beata and Koziorowska, Katarzyna and Hammer, Karoline and Schneider, Bernd},
   title = {Anomaly of total boron concentration in the brackish waters of the Baltic Sea and its consequence for the CO2 system calculations},
   journal = {Marine Chemistry},
   volume = {204},
   pages = {11-19},
   abstract = {Borates are the third most important component of total alkalinity (AT) in the oxic waters. Their concentrations are a function of the dissociation constant of boric acid and total boron (TB) concentration. The latter is approximated from salinity (S) as boron behave conservatively in the seawater. The linear dependencies between TB and S developed for the open ocean contain no intercept suggesting that river water contains no boron. Based on the historical data and our own measurements we identified a TB vs. S relationship specific for the Baltic Sea: TB [μmol kg−1] = 10.838 ∗ S + 13.821. In