publications.iow_esm.marine_science_report/all.bib

@misc{schulzweida_uwe_2019_2558193,
  author       = {Schulzweida, Uwe},
  title        = {CDO User Guide},
  month        = feb,
  year         = 2019,
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.2558193},
  url          = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2558193}
}

@book{python3,
 author = {Van Rossum, Guido and Drake, Fred L.},
 title = {Python 3 Reference Manual},
 year = {2009},
 isbn = {1441412697},
 publisher = {CreateSpace},
 address = {Scotts Valley, CA}
}

@book{markdown-guide,
  title={R markdown: The definitive guide},
  author={Xie, Yihui and Allaire, Joseph J and Grolemund, Garrett},
  year={2018},
  publisher={CRC Press}
}

@book{kluyver2016jupyter,
  title={Jupyter Notebooks-a publishing format for reproducible computational workflows.},
  author={Kluyver, Thomas and Ragan-Kelley, Benjamin and P{\'e}rez, Fernando and Granger, Brian E and Bussonnier, Matthias and Frederic, Jonathan and Kelley, Kyle and Hamrick, Jessica B and Grout, Jason and Corlay, Sylvain and others},
  volume={2016},
  year={2016}
}

@article{rew1990netcdf,
  title={NetCDF: an interface for scientific data access},
  author={Rew, Russ and Davis, Glenn},
  journal={IEEE computer graphics and applications},
  volume={10},
  number={4},
  pages={76--82},
  year={1990},
  publisher={IEEE}
}

@book{RN3096,
   title = {Summary of Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project},
   publisher = {Met Office Hadley Centre},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Book}
}

@misc{RN1667,
   author = {1, IPCC AR4 Working Group},
   title = {Table TS.6},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Statute}
}

@article{RN1687,
   author = {(FMI), Baltic Sea ice data},
   title = {Maximum annual extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea since 1720, MERI-Report Series by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)},
   journal = {EEA},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Aalto2016,
   author = {Aalto, Juha and Pirinen, Pentti and Jylhä, Kirsti},
   title = {New gridded daily climatology of Finland: Permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {121},
   number = {8},
   pages = {3807-3823},
   abstract = {Abstract Long-term time series of key climate variables with a relevant spatiotemporal resolution are essential for environmental science. Moreover, such spatially continuous data, based on weather observations, are commonly used in, e.g., downscaling and bias correcting of climate model simulations. Here we conducted a comprehensive spatial interpolation scheme where seven climate variables (daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily precipitation sum, relative humidity, sea level air pressure, and snow depth) were interpolated over Finland at the spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2. More precisely, (1) we produced daily gridded time series (FMI_ClimGrid) of the variables covering the period of 1961–2010, with a special focus on evaluation and permutation-based uncertainty estimates, and (2) we investigated temporal trends in the climate variables based on the gridded data. National climate station observations were supplemented by records from the surrounding countries, and kriging interpolation was applied to account for topography and water bodies. For daily precipitation sum and snow depth, a two-stage interpolation with a binary classifier was deployed for an accurate delineation of areas with no precipitation or snow. A robust cross-validation indicated a good agreement between the observed and interpolated values especially for the temperature variables and air pressure, although the effect of seasons was evident. Permutation-based analysis suggested increased uncertainty toward northern areas, thus identifying regions with suboptimal station density. Finally, several variables had a statistically significant trend indicating a clear but locally varying signal of climate change during the last five decades.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD024651},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Aarup1996,
   author = {Aarup, T and Holt, N and Højerslev, N K},
   title = {Optical measurements in the North Sea-Baltic Sea transition zone. II. Water mass classification along the Jutland west coast from salinity and spectral irradiance measurements},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {16},
   number = {10},
   pages = {1343-1353},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0278-4343(95)00076-3},
   year = {1996},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Aarvak2013,
   author = {Aarvak, Tomas and Jostein ØIen, Ingar and Krasnov, Yuri V. and Gavrilo, Maria V. and Shavykin, Anatoly A.},
   title = {The European wintering population of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri reassessed},
   journal = {Bird Conservation International},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {337-343},
   abstract = {Prolonged declines in the number of Steller’s Eider Polysticta stelleri wintering in Europe have raised concerns about the conservation status of the Western Palearctic population. Coordinated helicopter surveys of all known wintering areas in Norway and Russia and ground counts in the Baltic in 2009 found c.27,000 Steller’s Eiders, similar to numbers found during the last such survey in the mid-1990s. However, around 85% of the population now winters in Russia compared to 30–50% then. The reasons for this rapid shift in distribution are unknown but are likely linked to climate change. The continuing small population size, specialist feeding and restricted distribution of Steller’s Eider necessitate continued survey and research to track population changes and provide evidence for conservation management actions to safeguard the species.},
   ISSN = {0959-2709},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0959270912000251},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/european-wintering-population-of-stellers-eider-polysticta-stelleri-reassessed/BB0F64C14D07931010BB91EE12DD5374},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Aberle2015,
   author = {Aberle, N. and Malzahn, A. M. and Lewandowska, A. M. and Sommer, U.},
   title = {Some like it hot: the protozooplankton-copepod link in a warming ocean},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {519},
   pages = {103-113},
   note = {10.3354/meps11081},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: The combined effects of warming and densities of overwintering copepods on the spring succession of Baltic Sea plankton were investigated using indoor mesocosms. Three zooplankton densities (1.5, 4 and 10 copepods l<sup>-1</sup>) and 2 temperature levels (Δ0°C and Δ6°C; 0°C and 6°C above present-day temperatures in the Kiel Bight) were chosen. Both the timing and the duration of the protozooplankton (PZP) bloom were significantly affected by temperature, but not by copepod density. In contrast, the bloom intensity of PZP was highly affected by the factors temperature and copepod density and their interaction. This suggests that under elevated temperature conditions PZP grows faster, but, at the same time, is subject to higher top-down control by copepods. At low temperatures and low copepod densities, PZP, in turn, fully escaped from copepod predation. Further changes in copepod overwintering densities resulted in a strong suppression of ciliates, of which small-sized ciliates (<30 µm) were especially vulnerable to copepod predation, while other PZP size classes remained unaffected. In conclusion, results point at a pivotal regulating role of overwintering copepods under future warming conditions. Further, warming was shown to cause a distinct match between phytoplankton and PZP, thus strengthening trophic pathways through PZP. Our findings are discussed in the context of the ‘trophic link-sink’ debate by considering potential alterations in the flux of matter and energy up the food web.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/meps11081},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v519/p103-113/},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Adam2007,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Haddeland, Ingjerd and Su, Fengge and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Simulation of reservoir influences on annual and seasonal streamflow changes for the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' rivers},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {112},
   pages = {D24114},
   abstract = {Since the 1930s, combined streamflow from the largest Eurasian rivers discharging to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing. For many of these rivers, an increase in annual streamflow volume has been accompanied by a shift in seasonality (e.g., earlier snowmelt runoff in the spring). These changes in annual and seasonal streamflow may be due to direct effects of climate change (e.g., increased precipitation, or changes in snow accumulation and ablation patterns), indirect effects of climate change (e.g., changes in permafrost), or human effects (e.g., storage and release of river runoff in reservoirs). We develop and describe a method to estimate the potential contributions of artificial reservoirs to long-term changes in annual and seasonal streamflow between 1937 and 1998. Reservoir effects on downstream flow are simulated using a reservoir routing model coupled off-line to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model for the Lena, Yenisei and Ob' river basins. The effects of reservoirs on basin average evaporation are also represented. We perform trend analysis on long-term (≥30 years) time series of seasonal and annual streamflow and isolate the effects of reservoirs. Although reservoirs have had little effect on trends in annual discharge from the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins, we conclude that they are responsible for many of the seasonal changes that have been observed. For the Lena, reservoirs account for up to 80% and 30% of the observed winter and spring trends, respectively. For the Yenisei, reservoirs account for up to 100%, 40%, and 60% to 100% of the observed winter, spring, and late summer to early fall trends, respectively. For the Ob', reservoirs may account for more than 70% of the observed trends during the months of January to March. A result of this study is a set of reconstructed streamflow at the outlets of the Lena, Yenisei, and Ob' river basins which can be used in subsequent studies to improve the understanding of climate change effects on runoff generation in the Eurasian Arctic.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007JD008525},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Adam2008,
   author = {Adam, Jennifer C. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.},
   title = {Application of New Precipitation and Reconstructed Streamflow Products to Streamflow Trend Attribution in Northern Eurasia},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {21},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1807-1828},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1535.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/8/2007jcli1535.1.xml},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Ahlgren2017,
   author = {Ahlgren, Joakim and Grimvall, Anders and Omstedt, Anders and Rolff, Carl and Wikner, Johan},
   title = {Temperature, DOC level and basin interactions explain the declining oxygen concentrations in the Bothnian Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {170},
   pages = {22-30},
   keywords = {Oxygen depletion
Hypoxia
Bothnian Sea
Baltic Sea
Climatic changes
Modelling},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.12.010},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796316301877},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{Ahtiainen2014,
   author = {Ahtiainen, Heini and Öhman, Marcus C.},
   title = {Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea : Valuation of Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services in the Baltic Sea},
   publisher = {Nordisk Ministerråd},
   address = {Copenhagen},
   series = {TemaNord},
   note = {2015-03-11T15:55:21.971+01:00
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/FULLTEXT02.pdf},
   abstract = {This report presents an overview of the ecosystem services and associated benefits provided by the Baltic Sea, including information on the approaches of assessing and valuing ecosystem services being applied in the Baltic Sea region. It also identifies the main challenges in ecosystem service assessments in the Baltic Sea, and outlines the way forward in applying assessment tools in regional and national policies.Valuation of the benefits provided by ecosystem services can aid in designing more efficient policies for the protection of the Baltic Sea. The existing studies on the value of improved marine environment are useful in assessing the importance and value of some marine ecosystem services, but further work is still needed on describing ecosystem services and their interactions, and evaluating how policy changes affect these services and human well-being.},
   keywords = {Environmental Sciences
Miljövetenskap},
   pages = {74},
   ISBN = {978-92-893-3861-5 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3863-9 (ISBN)
978-92-893-3862-2 (ISBN)
09086692 (ISSN)},
   DOI = {10.6027/TN2014-563
http://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:767673/PREVIEW01.jpg},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:norden:org:diva-3536},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{Akhtar2021,
   author = {Akhtar, Naveed and Geyer, Beate and Rockel, Burkhardt and Sommer, Philipp S. and Schrum, Corinna},
   title = {Accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy alter wind climate and reduce future power generation potentials},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   volume = {11},
   number = {1},
   pages = {11826},
   abstract = {The European Union has set ambitious CO2 reduction targets, stimulating renewable energy production and accelerating deployment of offshore wind energy in northern European waters, mainly the North Sea. With increasing size and clustering, offshore wind farms (OWFs) wake effects, which alter wind conditions and decrease the power generation efficiency of wind farms downwind become more important. We use a high-resolution regional climate model with implemented wind farm parameterizations to explore offshore wind energy production limits in the North Sea. We simulate near future wind farm scenarios considering existing and planned OWFs in the North Sea and assess power generation losses and wind variations due to wind farm wake. The annual mean wind speed deficit within a wind farm can reach 2–2.5 ms−1 depending on the wind farm geometry. The mean deficit, which decreases with distance, can extend 35–40 km downwind during prevailing southwesterly winds. Wind speed deficits are highest during spring (mainly March–April) and lowest during November–December. The large-size of wind farms and their proximity affect not only the performance of its downwind turbines but also that of neighboring downwind farms, reducing the capacity factor by 20% or more, which increases energy production costs and economic losses. We conclude that wind energy can be a limited resource in the North Sea. The limits and potentials for optimization need to be considered in climate mitigation strategies and cross-national optimization of offshore energy production plans are inevitable.},
   ISSN = {2045-2322},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91283-3},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2505,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Karsten, Ulf and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Genotypic variation influences tolerance to warming and acidification of early life-stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) in a seasonally fluctuating environment},
   journal = {Marine Biology},
   volume = {163},
   number = {1},
   pages = {14},
   abstract = {Global change exposes brown algal Fucus vesiculosus populations to increasing temperature and pCO2, which may threaten individuals, in particular the early life-stages. Genetic diversity of F. vesiculosus populations is low in the Baltic compared to Atlantic populations. This might jeopardise their potential for adaptation to environmental changes. Here, we report on the responses of early life-stage F. vesiculosus to warming and acidification in a near-natural scenario maintaining natural and seasonal variation (spring 2013–2014) of the Kiel Fjord in the Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27ʹN, 10°11ʹW). We assessed how stress sensitivity differed among sibling groups and how genetic diversity of germling populations affected their stress tolerance. Warming increased growth rates of Fucus germlings in spring and in early summer, but led to higher photoinhibition in spring and decreased their survival in late summer. Acidification increased germlings’ growth in summer but otherwise showed much weaker effects than warming. During the colder seasons (autumn and winter), growth was slow while survival was high compared to spring and summer, all at ambient temperatures. A pronounced variation in stress response among genetically different sibling groups (full-sib families) suggests a genotypic basis for this variation and thus a potential for adaptation for F. vesiculosus populations to future conditions. Corroborating this, survival in response to warming in populations with higher diversity was better than the mean survival of single sibling groups. We conclude that impacts on early life-stages depend on the combination of stressors and season and that genetic variation is crucial for the tolerance to global change stress.},
   ISSN = {1432-1793},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00227-015-2804-8},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2506,
   author = {Al-Janabi, Balsam and Kruse, Inken and Graiff, Angelika and Winde, Vera and Lenz, Mark and Wahl, Martin},
   title = {Buffering and Amplifying Interactions among OAW (Ocean Acidification & Warming) and Nutrient Enrichment on Early Life-Stage Fucus vesiculosus L. (Phaeophyceae) and Their Carry Over Effects to Hypoxia Impact},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {11},
   number = {4},
   pages = {e0152948},
   abstract = {Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are occurring globally. Additionally, at a more local scale the spreading of hypoxic conditions is promoted by eutrophication and warming. In the semi-enclosed brackish Baltic Sea, occasional upwelling in late summer and autumn may expose even shallow-water communities including the macroalga Fucus vesiculosus to particularly acidified, nutrient-rich and oxygen-poor water bodies. During summer 2014 (July–September) sibling groups of early life-stage F. vesiculosus were exposed to OAW in the presence and absence of enhanced nutrient levels and, subsequently to a single upwelling event in a near-natural scenario which included all environmental fluctuations in the Kiel Fjord, southwestern Baltic Sea, Germany (54°27 ´N, 10°11 ´W). We strove to elucidate the single and combined impacts of these potential stressors, and how stress sensitivity varies among genetically different sibling groups. Enhanced by a circumstantial natural heat wave, warming and acidification increased mortalities and reduced growth in F. vesiculosus germlings. This impact, however, was mitigated by enhanced nutrient conditions. Survival under OAW conditions strongly varied among sibling groups hinting at a substantial adaptive potential of the natural Fucus populations in the Western Baltic. A three-day experimental upwelling caused severe mortality of Fucus germlings, which was substantially more severe in those sibling groups which previously had been exposed to OAW. Our results show that global (OAW), regional (nutrient enrichment) and local pressures (upwelling), both alone and co-occurring may have synergistic and antagonistic effects on survival and/or growth of Fucus germlings. This result emphasizes the need to consider combined stress effects.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0152948},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Aldridge1995,
   author = {Aldridge, David W. and Payne, Barry S. and Miller, Andrew C.},
   title = {Oxygen consumption, nitrogenous excretion, and filtration rates of Dreissena polymorpha at acclimation temperatures between 20 and 32 °C},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {52},
   number = {8},
   pages = {1761-1767},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f95-768},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f95-768 %X Mussels were acclimated to each of four experimental temperatures (20, 24, 28, and 32 °C) for 30 days. Mussels averaged 10.29 mg tissue dry weight. Oxygen consumption rates at 32 °C were 3.65 times larger than consumption rates at 20 °C (p < 0.01). Ammonia excretion rates at 32 °C were 4.9 times greater than those at 20 °C (p < 0.01). O:N ratios were >60 at 20 and 24 °C but declined (p < 0.01) at 28 and 32 °C to <40. Filtration rates, an estimate of feeding rates, were not significantly different at 20 and 24 °C (p > 0.50) but declined at 28 and 32 °C (p < 0.01). Filtration rates at 32 °C were only 27% of the rates at 20 °C. These results indicate that (i) the metabolic expenditure of Dreissena polymorpha rose 265% as the temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C, (ii) metabolism relied more heavily on lipids and carbohydrates at 20 and 24 °C while protein catabolism increased at 28 and 32 °C, and (iii) the potential feeding rates of D. polymorpha declined by 73% as temperature rose from 20 to 32 °C. Above 28 °C D. polymorpha was unable to match energy expenditures with concurrent food intake and forced to rely on stored fuels.},
   year = {1995},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Alheit2005,
   author = {Alheit, J and Möllmann, C and Dutz, Jörg and Kornilovs, G and Loewe, P and Mohrholz, V and Wasmund, N},
   title = {Synchronous ecological regime shifts in the central Baltic and the North Sea in the late 1980s},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {62},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1205-1215},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.04.024},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Alkama2016,
   author = {Alkama, Ramdane and Cescatti, Alessandro},
   title = {Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {351},
   number = {6273},
   pages = {600-604},
   abstract = {Forest loss affects climate not just because of the impacts it has on the carbon cycle, but also because of how it affects the fluxes of energy and water between the land and the atmosphere. Evaluating global impact is complicated because deforestation can produce different results in different climate zones, making it hard to determine large-scale trends rather than more local ones. Alkama and Cescatti conducted a global assessment of the biophysical effects of forest cover change. Forest loss amplifies diurnal temperature variations, increases mean and maximum air temperatures, and causes a significant amount of warming when compared to CO2 emission from land-use change.Science, this issue p. 600Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003–2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8083},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/351/6273/600.full.pdf},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Allen2018,
   author = {Allen, M.R. and Dube, O.P. and Solecki, W. and Aragón-Durand, F. and Cramer, W. and Humphreys, S. and Kainuma, M. and Kala, J. and Mahowald, N. and Mulugetta, Y. and Perez, R. and Wairiu, M. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Framing and Context},
   booktitle = {Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D. and Skea, J. and Shukla, P.R. and Pirani, A. and Moufouma-Okia, W. and Péan, C. and Pidcock, R. and Connors, S. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Chen, Y. and Zhou, X. and Gomis, M.I. and Lonnoy, E. and Maycock, T. and Tignor, M. and Waterfield, T.},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-1/},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Allen2013,
   author = {Allen, R. J. and Norris, J. R. and Wild, M.},
   title = {Evaluation of multidecadal variability in CMIP5 surface solar radiation and inferred underestimation of aerosol direct effects over Europe, China, Japan, and India},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {118},
   number = {12},
   pages = {6311-6336},
   abstract = {Observations from the Global Energy Balance Archive indicate regional decreases in all sky surface solar radiation from ∼1950s to 1980s, followed by an increase during the 1990s. These periods are popularly called dimming and brightening, respectively. Removal of the radiative effects of cloud cover variability from all sky surface solar radiation results in a quantity called “clear sky proxy” radiation, in which multidecadal trends can be seen more distinctly, suggesting aerosol radiative forcing as a likely cause. Prior work has shown climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) generally underestimate the magnitude of these trends, particularly over China and India. Here we perform a similar analysis with 173 simulations from 42 climate models participating in the new CMIP5. Results show negligible improvement over CMIP3, as CMIP5 dimming trends over four regions—Europe, China, India, and Japan—are all underestimated. This bias is largest for both India and China, where the multimodel mean yields a decrease in clear sky proxy radiation of −1.3±0.3 and −1.2±0.2 W m−2decade−1, respectively, compared to observed decreases of −6.5±0.9 and −8.2±1.3 W m−2decade−1. Similar underestimation of the observed dimming over Japan exists, with the CMIP5 mean dimming ∼20% as large as observed. Moreover, not a single simulation reproduces the magnitude of the observed dimming trend for these three regions. Relative to dimming, CMIP5 models better simulate the observed brightening, but significant underestimation exists for both China and Japan. Overall, no individual model performs particularly well for all four regions. Model biases do not appear to be related to the use of prescribed versus prognostic aerosols or to aerosol indirect effects. However, models exhibit significant correlations between clear sky proxy radiation and several aerosol-related fields, most notably aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorption AOD. This suggests model underestimation of the observed trends is related to underestimation of aerosol direct radiative forcing and/or deficient aerosol emission inventories.},
   ISSN = {2169-897X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50426},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Allen1984,
   author = {Allen, S. G.  and Ainley, D. G. and Page, G. W. and Ribic, C. A.},
   title = {The effect on distribution on harbor seal haul out patterns at Bolinas Lagoon, California},
   booktitle = {Fishery Bulletin},
   editor = {Richards, William J. and Collette, Bruce B. and Houde, Edward D. and Ingham, Merten C. and Lasker, Reuben and Malins, Donald C. and Pella, Jerome J. and Quast, Jay C. and Sindermann, Carl J. and Fukuyama, Mary S.},
   publisher = {National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA},
   address = {Seattle, WA, USA},
   volume = {82 (3)},
   pages = {493-500},
   year = {1984},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@phdthesis{Almqvist2008,
   author = {Almqvist, Gustaf},
   title = {Round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea – Invasion Biology in practice},
   university = {Systemekologiska institutionen},
   note = {(biträdande)},
   type = {Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary},
   abstract = {Human mediated transfer of non-indigenous species is considered to be a major threat to global biodiversity. The Ponto-Caspian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), which has established populations in various regions in Eurasia and North-America, was first observed in Gulf of Gdańsk, Baltic Sea, in 1990. In this thesis the round goby is used as case study for assessing the invasion process of an alien species in to the Baltic Sea. Factors governing life history characteristics, traits that have enhanced the invasion, and ecological consequences for the Baltic Sea are assessed. Two diverging life history strategies of the round goby related to habitat were found: one to-wards early maturation and short population turnover time in sheltered areas, the other towards high growth rate and late maturation in exposed areas. Females produced two batches in average during the spawning season. Lengths of spawning season and annual fecundity of round gobies in Gulf of Gdańsk were in the same range as in the donor region. The species was found to compete with juvenile flounder for space and food resources, and probably also other native species are affected in coastal areas. Round goby comprised a main food source for cod and perch, forming a new energetic pathway between mussels and predatory fish. It is predicted that the species must produce more than one batch per season to sustain a viable population. Low temperature in the northern Baltic Sea is expected to hamper the devel-opment of new round goby populations, however, the global climate change might change this situation. In the southern Baltic Sea a shortage of optimal reproduction habitats is suggested to moderate the rate of spread. Although round goby in the Gulf of Gdańsk seems to have passed abundance maximum it is likely that the species will continue to be an important ecosystem component, at least in southern Baltic Sea, in the future.},
   keywords = {Round goby
Neogobius melanostomus
Apollonia melanostoma
non-indigenous fish
life history characteristics
predation
competition
Gulf of Gdańsk
Baltic Sea.
Ecology
Ekologi},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-7450},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Thesis}
}

@article{RN3050,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, E. and Edman, M. and Eilola, K. and Meier, H. E. M. and Sahlberg, J.},
   title = {Modelling nutrient retention in the coastal zone of an eutrophic sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {20},
   pages = {5753-5769},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5753-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/5753/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1690,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Hordoir, Robinson and Meier, H. E. Markus and Hall, Per O J},
   title = {Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea - a model study},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {87},
   pages = {1-12},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.02.005},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1961,
   author = {Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Eilola, Kari and Kuznetsov, Ivan and Hall, Per O. J. and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {144},
   pages = {127-141},
   abstract = {The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980–2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59×103t P year−1 and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60–150m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43×103t P year−1. For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19×103t P year−1. In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7×103t P year−1. The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period.},
   keywords = {Phosphorus release
Oxygen penetration depth
Eutrophication
Saltwater inflow
Biogeochemical modelling
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.11.007},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314003121},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Altieri2015,
   author = {Altieri, Andrew H. and Gedan, Keryn B.},
   title = {Climate change and dead zones},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {21},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1395-1406},
   abstract = {Abstract Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12754},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Andersen2017,
   author = {Andersen, Jesper H. and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J. and Dromph, Karsten and Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Josefson, Alf B. and Norkko, Alf and Villnäs, Anna and Murray, Ciarán},
   title = {Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biological Reviews},
   volume = {92},
   number = {1},
   pages = {135-149},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.},
   ISSN = {1464-7931},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12221},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12221},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Andersen2017-2,
   author = {Andersen, N. G. and Lundgren, B. and Neuenfeldt, S. and Beyer, J. E.},
   title = {Diel vertical interactions between Atlantic cod Gadus morhua and sprat Sprattus sprattus in a stratified water column},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {583},
   pages = {195-209},
   note = {10.3354/meps12319},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: Information about species interactions at a spatial scale comparable to the perceptive abilities of the involved species is crucial for establishment of predictive food consumption models at the population level. Nevertheless, such information is sparse due to methodological constraints. We studied the diel vertical dynamics of species interactions between Atlantic cod <i>Gadus morhua</i> and its major clupeid prey, sprat <i>Sprattus sprattus</i>, at a location in the Bornholm Basin of the central Baltic Sea during late winter. This was accomplished by combining acoustic information on diel vertical fish distribution, time of ingestion of individual sprat estimated from cod stomach content data and observed vertical profiles of salinity, temperature and oxygen content. Predation by cod took place primarily at dusk and dawn during ascent and descent of sprat associated with school dissolution and formation, respectively. Cod resided close to the bottom outside these temporal predation windows. Sprat schools were located at the same depth as cod in the daylight hours, whereas at night dispersed sprat were situated higher in the water column. These vertical dynamics could be explained by fitness optimization using bioenergetics and trade-offs between temperature, oxygen saturation of the water and predation risk. This study forms a first step towards providing a mechanistic background for the predatory impact of cod at the basin scale and beyond.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v583/p195-209/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Andersen2012,
   author = {Andersen, S.M. and Teilmann, J. and Dietz, R. and Schmidt, N.M. and Miller, L.A.},
   title = {Behavioural responses of harbour seals to human-induced disturbances},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {22},
   number = {1},
   pages = {113-121},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT In Denmark, harbour seals, Phoca vitulina, were first protected in 1977, and since then a number of seal reserves have been established in Danish waters. The effectiveness of these reserves to prevent human-induced disturbances to the seal population have, however, not been evaluated. To evaluate this, experimental disturbances were conducted in one of the most important seal reserves in Denmark (Anholt seal reserve). Specifically, the behavioural responses (alert distance, flight initiation distance, flee distances and flight duration) of harbour seals to approaching pedestrians and boats were studied. The project was conducted during three periods related to the breeding cycle of harbour seals. In all periods, harbour seals were alerted by boats at significantly greater distances compared with pedestrians (560–850 m and 200–425 m, respectively). Similar differences in the flight initiation distances were observed, 510–830 m for boats and 165–260 m for pedestrians. In most cases seals were alerted and began to flee when the approaching boat was outside the reserve, whereas seals did not respond to approaching pedestrians until after they had entered the reserve. Harbour seals exhibited weaker and shorter-lasting responses during the breeding season. They were more reluctant to flee and returned to the haul-out site immediately after being disturbed, in some cases even during the disturbance. This seasonal tolerance is most likely attributed to a trade-off between fleeing and nursing during the breeding season, and hence not an indication of habituation. Based on the results of this study it is suggested that the reserve boundaries on land be placed at least 425 m from the haul-out area and the boundary at sea should extend to at least 850 m from the haul-out area in order to secure adequate year-round protection from disturbances. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.1244},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Andersson2015,
   author = {Andersson, Agneta and Meier, H. E. Markus and Ripszam, Matyas and Rowe, Owen and Wikner, Johan and Haglund, Peter and Eilola, Kari and Legrand, Catherine and Figueroa, Daniela and Paczkowska, Joanna and Lindehoff, Elin and Tysklind, Mats and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {345-356},
   abstract = {Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{Andersson2018,
   author = {Andersson, H. C.},
   title = {Stigande havsnivåer och ökad översvämningsrisk},
   institution = {Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,},
   number = {MSB 1243},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{Andersson2002,
   author = {Andersson, Helén C.},
   title = {Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {54},
   number = {1},
   pages = {76-88},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v54i1.12125},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{RN1566,
   author = {Andrén, Thomas and Björck, Svante and Andrén, Elinor and Conley, Daniel and Zillén, Lovisa and Anjar, Johanna},
   title = {The development of the Baltic Sea Basin during the last 130 ka},
   booktitle = {The Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer},
   pages = {75-97},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17220-5_4},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Aneer1985,
   author = {Aneer, G.},
   title = {Some Speculations about the Baltic Herring (Clupea harengus membras) in Connection with the Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {42},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {s83-s90},
   abstract = {In this paper the hypothesis is put forward that Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras) spawning time, spring or autumn, is determined by feeding conditions during the adult phase and thus not genetically fixed. The present "absence" of autumn spawners is thought to be the result of improved feeding conditions during the latest decades as a result of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. During two spawning ground studies carried out in 1978 and 1982 unusually high mortality rates were noted for eggs in situ. In 1982, during 4?wk close to peak of spawning, the mortality increased substantially, especially for eggs among filamentous algae. A significant difference was noted between eggs on coarser algae and those among filamentous algae (p?<?0.001). During this period the average mortalities were 33 and 75%, respectively. Very low levels of oxygen were measured at night among the filamentous algae. An increase in the amounts of this type of algae as a response to the eutrophication might constitute a new hazard to the reproductive success of the Baltic herring.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f85-264},
   year = {1985},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN3241,
   author = {AquaNIS, .},
   title = {Information system on aquatic non-indigenous and cryptogenic species},
   number = {09.02.2021},
   url = {http://www.corpi.ku.lt/databases/index.php/aquanis/},
   type = {Web Page}
}

@article{Arend2011,
   author = {Arend, Kristin K. and Beletsky, Dmitry and DePinto, Joseph V.  and Ludsin, Stuart A. and Roberts, James J.  and Rucinski, Daniel K.  and Scavia, Donald and Schwab, David J.  and Höök, Tomas O. },
   title = {Seasonal and interannual effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in central Lake Erie},
   journal = {Freshwater Biology},
   volume = {56},
   number = {2},
   pages = {366-383},
   abstract = {Summary 1. Hypoxia occurs seasonally in many stratified coastal marine and freshwater ecosystems when bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations are depleted below 2–3 mg O2 L−1. 2. We evaluated the effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in the central basin of Lake Erie from 1987 to 2005, using bioenergetic growth rate potential (GRP) as a proxy for habitat quality. We compared the effect of hypoxia on habitat quality of (i) rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax mordax Mitchill (young-of-year, YOY, and adult), a cold-water planktivore, (ii) emerald shiner, Notropis atherinoides Rafinesque (adult), a warm-water planktivore, (iii) yellow perch, Perca flavescens Mitchill (YOY and adult), a cool-water benthopelagic omnivore and (iv) round goby Neogobius melanostomus Pallas (adult) a eurythermal benthivore. Annual thermal and DO profiles were generated from 1D thermal and DO hydrodynamics models developed for Lake Erie’s central basin. 3. Hypoxia occurred annually, typically from mid-July to mid-October, which spatially and temporally overlaps with otherwise high benthic habitat quality. Hypoxia reduced the habitat quality across fish species and life stages, but the magnitude of the reduction varied both among and within species because of the differences in tolerance to low DO levels and warm-water temperatures. 4. Across years, trends in habitat quality mirrored trends in phosphorus concentration and water column oxygen demand in central Lake Erie. The per cent reduction in habitat quality owing to hypoxia was greatest for adult rainbow smelt and round goby (mean: −35%), followed by adult emerald shiner (mean: −12%), YOY rainbow smelt (mean: −10%) and YOY and adult yellow perch (mean: −8.5%). 5. Our results highlight the importance of differential spatiotemporally interactive effects of DO and temperature on relative fish habitat quality and quantity. These effects have the potential to influence the performance of individual fish species as well as population dynamics, trophic interactions and fish community structure.},
   ISSN = {0046-5070},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02504.x},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Arheimer2017,
   author = {Arheimer, B. and Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G.},
   title = {Regulation of snow-fed rivers affects flow regimes more than climate change},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {8},
   number = {1},
   pages = {62},
   abstract = {River flow is mainly controlled by climate, physiography and regulations, but their relative importance over large landmasses is poorly understood. Here we show from computational modelling that hydropower regulation is a key driver of flow regime change in snow-dominated regions and is more important than future climate changes. This implies that climate adaptation needs to include regulation schemes. The natural river regime in snowy regions has low flow when snow is stored and a pronounced peak flow when snow is melting. Global warming and hydropower regulation change this temporal pattern similarly, causing less difference in river flow between seasons. We conclude that in snow-fed rivers globally, the future climate change impact on flow regime is minor compared to regulation downstream of large reservoirs, and of similar magnitude over large landmasses. Our study not only highlights the impact of hydropower production but also that river regulation could be turned into a measure for climate adaptation to maintain biodiversity on floodplains under climate change.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00092-8},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Arheimer2012,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Dahné, Joel and Donnelly, Chantal},
   title = {Climate change impact on riverine nutrient load and land-based remedial measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {41},
   number = {6},
   pages = {600-612},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0323-0},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Arheimer2015,
   author = {Arheimer, Berit and Lindström, Göran},
   title = {Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911-2100)},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {19},
   number = {2},
   pages = {771-784},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-771-2015},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Arias2021,
   author = {Arias, P.A. and Bellouin, N. and Coppola, E. and Jones, R.G. and Krinner, G. and Marotzke, J. and Naik, V. and Palmer, M.D. and Plattner, G.-K. and J. Rogelj and M. Rojas and J. Sillmann and T. Storelvmo and Thorne, P.W. and Trewin, B. and Rao, K. Achuta and Adhikary, B. and Allan, R.P. and Armour, K. and Bala, G. and Barimalala, R. and Berger, S. and Canadell, J.G. and Cassou, C. and Cherchi, A. and Collins, W. and Collins, W.D. and Connors, S.L. and Corti, S. and Cruz, F. and Dentener, F.J. and Dereczynski, C. and Luca, A. Di and Niang, A. Diongue and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Dosio, A. and Douville, H. and Engelbrecht, F. and Eyring, V. and Fischer, E. and Forster, P. and Fox-Kemper, B. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. and Fyfe, J.C. and Gillett, N.P. and Goldfarb, L. and Gorodetskaya, I. and Gutierrez, J.M. and Hamdi, R. and Hawkins, E. and Hewitt, H.T. and Hope, P. and Islam, A.S. and Jones, C. and Kaufman, D.S. and Kopp, R.E. and Kosaka, Y. and Kossin, J. and Krakovska, S. and Lee, J.-Y. and Li, J. and Mauritsen, T. and Maycock, T.K. and Meinshausen, M. and Min, S.-K. and Monteiro, P.M.S. and Ngo-Duc, T. and Otto, F. and Pinto, I. and Pirani, A. and Raghavan, K. and Ranasinghe, R. and Ruane, A.C. and Ruiz, L. and Sallée, J.-B. and Samset, B.H. and Sathyendranath, S. and Seneviratne, S.I. and Sörensson, A.A. and Szopa, S. and Takayabu, I. and Tréguier, A.-M. and Hurk, B. van den and Vautard, R. and Schuckmann, K. von and Zaehle, S. and Zhang, X. and Zickfeld, K.},
   title = {Technical Summary},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Masson-Delmotte and V., P. Zhai and Pirani, A. and Connors, S.L. and Péan, C. and Berger, S. and Caud, N. and Chen, Y. and Goldfarb, L. and Gomis, M.I. and Huang, M. and Leitzell, K. and Lonnoy, E. and Matthews, J.B.R. and Maycock, T.K. and Waterfield, T. and Yelekçi, O. and Yu, R. and Zhou, B.},
   address = {Cambridge University Press},
   pages = {159pp},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Armitage2011,
   author = {Armitage, James M. and Quinn, Cristina L. and Wania, Frank},
   title = {Global climate change and contaminants—an overview of opportunities and priorities for modelling the potential implications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic},
   journal = {Journal of Environmental Monitoring},
   volume = {13},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1532-1546},
   abstract = {This overview seeks to provide context and insight into the relative importance of different aspects related to global climate change for the exposure of Northern residents to organic contaminants. A key objective is to identify, from the perspective of researchers engaged in contaminant fate, transport and bioaccumulation modelling, the most useful research questions with respect to projecting the long-term trends in human exposure. Monitoring studies, modelling results, the magnitude of projected changes and simplified quantitative approaches are used to inform the discussion. Besides the influence of temperature on contaminant amplification and distribution, accumulation of organic contaminants in the Arctic is expected to be particularly sensitive to the reduction/elimination of sea-ice cover and also changes to the frequency and intensity of precipitation events (most notably for substances that are highly susceptible to precipitation scavenging). Changes to key food-web interactions, in particular the introduction of additional trophic levels, have the potential to exert a relatively high influence on contaminant exposure but the likelihood of such changes is difficult to assess. Similarly, changes in primary productivity and dynamics of organic matter in aquatic systems could be influential for very hydrophobic contaminants, but the magnitude of change that may occur is uncertain. Shifts in the amount and location of chemical use and emissions are key considerations, in particular if substances with relatively low long range transport potential are used in closer proximity to, or even within, the Arctic in the future. Temperature-dependent increases in emissions via (re)volatilization from primary and secondary sources outside the Arctic are also important in this regard. An increased frequency of boreal forest fires has relevance for compounds emitted via biomass burning and revolatilization from soil during/after burns but compound-specific analyses are limited by the availability of reliable emission factors. However, potentially more influential for human exposure than changes to the physical environment are changes in human behaviour. This includes the gradual displacement of traditional food items by imported foods from other regions, driven by prey availability and/or consumer preference, but also the possibility of increased exposure to chemicals used in packaging materials and other consumer products, driven by dietary and lifestyle choices.},
   ISSN = {1464-0325},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/C1EM10131E},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Arneborg2016,
   author = {Arneborg, Lars},
   title = {Comment on “Influence of sea level rise on the dynamics of salt inflows in the Baltic Sea” by R. Hordoir, L. Axell, U. Löptien, H. Dietze, and I. Kuznetsov},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {121},
   number = {3},
   pages = {2035-2040},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011451},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Asmala2017,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J and Slomp, Caroline P and Stadmark, Johanna and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Efficiency of the coastal filter: Nitrogen and phosphorus removal in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {62},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {S222-S238},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10644},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Asmala2010,
   author = {Asmala, Eero and Saikku, Laura},
   title = {Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {39},
   number = {2},
   pages = {126-135},
   abstract = {Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year−1 and 115 t P year−1. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-010-0024-5},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Assel2003,
   author = {Assel, Raymond and Cronk, Kevin and Norton, David},
   title = {Recent trends in Laurentian Great Lakes ice cover},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {57},
   number = {1-2},
   pages = {185-204},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022140604052},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Athanasiadis2020,
   author = {Athanasiadis, Panos J. and Yeager, Stephen and Kwon, Young-Oh and Bellucci, Alessio and Smith, David W. and Tibaldi, Stefano},
   title = {Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO},
   journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20},
   abstract = {Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.},
   ISSN = {2397-3722},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{Authier2020,
   author = {Authier, Matthieu and Brasseur, Sophie and Carlén, Ida and Carlström, Julia and Evans, Peter and Fernández, Ruth and Galatius, Anders and Gilles, Anita and Hammond, Philip and Kaminska, Katarzyna and Kavanagh, Ailbhe and Kingston, Allen and Königson, Sara and Koschinski, Sven and Larsen, Finn and Macleod, Kelly and Mugerza, Estanis and Müller, Miriam and Ojaveer, Henn and Papaioannou, Eva and Peltier, Hélène and Pierce, Graham and Pusch, Christian and Ridoux, Vincent and Santos, Begona and Sigurðsson, Guðjón and Tachoires, Stéphanie and Vinther, Morten and Woźniczka, Adam},
   title = {Workshop on fisheries Emergency Measures to minimize BYCatch of short-beaked common dolphins in the Bay of Biscay and harbour porpoise in the Baltic Sea (WKEMBYC)},
   note = {2020-12-12T21:37:03.959+01:00},
   month = {2020},
   keywords = {Ecology
Ekologi},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7472},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:nrm:diva-3949},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{Averkiev2010,
   author = {Averkiev, Alexander S. and Klevannyy, Konstantin A.},
   title = {A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland},
   journal = {Continental Shelf Research},
   volume = {30},
   number = {6},
   pages = {707-714},
   abstract = {Modelling of water levels in the Baltic Sea, aimed at evaluating the influence of the trajectories and propagation speeds of a deep idealized cyclone on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland, is done using the hydrodynamic model BSM6. An analytical expression for determination of the atmospheric pressure in this cyclone takes into account the existence of the cold front and the time evolution of the cyclone intensity. The empirical parameters in this relation are based on those of the deep cyclone ‘Erwin’ which passed over the Baltic Sea region in 2005.},
   keywords = {Storm surges
Extreme sea levels
Deep cyclones
Numerical modelling
Baltic Sea model
Gulf of Finland},
   ISSN = {0278-4343},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434309003082},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{Axell2019,
   author = {Axell, Lars and Liu, Ye and Jandt, Simon and Lorkowski, Ina and Lindenthal, Anja and Verjovkina, Svetlana and Schwichtenberg, Fabian},
   title = {Baltic Sea Production Centre BALTICSEA_REANALYSIS_BIO_003_012},
   institution = {COPERNICUS Marine Environment Monitoring Service, Issue 2.5},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00012},
   url = {https://cmems-resources.cls.fr/documents/QUID/CMEMS-BAL-QUID-003-012.pdf},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Report}
}

@book{BACC2008,
   author = {BACC Author Team},
   title = {Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin},
   publisher = {Springer Science & Business Media},
   address = {Berlin, Heidelberg},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   pages = {473},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72786-6},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Book}
}

@book{BACC2015,
   author = {BACC II Author Team},
   title = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   series = {Regional Climate Studies},
   note = {read},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{Bailey2020,
   author = {Bailey, Sarah A. and Brown, Lyndsay and Campbell, Marnie L. and Canning-Clode, João and Carlton, James T. and Castro, Nuno and Chainho, Paula and Chan, Farrah T. and Creed, Joel C. and Curd, Amelia and Darling, John and Fofonoff, Paul and Galil, Bella S. and Hewitt, Chad L. and Inglis, Graeme J. and Keith, Inti and Mandrak, Nicholas E. and Marchini, Agnese and McKenzie, Cynthia H. and Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna and Ojaveer, Henn and Pires-Teixeira, Larissa M. and Robinson, Tamara B. and Ruiz, Gregory M. and Seaward, Kimberley and Schwindt, Evangelina and Son, Mikhail O. and Therriault, Thomas W. and Zhan, Aibin},
   title = {Trends in the detection of aquatic non-indigenous species across global marine, estuarine and freshwater ecosystems: A 50-year perspective},
   journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
   volume = {26},
   number = {12},
   pages = {1780-1797},
   abstract = {Abstract Aim The introduction of aquatic non-indigenous species (ANS) has become a major driver for global changes in species biogeography. We examined spatial patterns and temporal trends of ANS detections since 1965 to inform conservation policy and management. Location Global. Methods We assembled an extensive dataset of first records of detection of ANS (1965–2015) across 49 aquatic ecosystems, including the (a) year of first collection, (b) population status and (c) potential pathway(s) of introduction. Data were analysed at global and regional levels to assess patterns of detection rate, richness and transport pathways. Results An annual mean of 43 (±16 SD) primary detections of ANS occurred—one new detection every 8.4 days for 50 years. The global rate of detections was relatively stable during 1965–1995, but increased rapidly after this time, peaking at roughly 66 primary detections per year during 2005–2010 and then declining marginally. Detection rates were variable within and across regions through time. Arthropods, molluscs and fishes were the most frequently reported ANS. Most ANS were likely introduced as stowaways in ships’ ballast water or biofouling, although direct evidence is typically absent. Main conclusions This synthesis highlights the magnitude of recent ANS detections, yet almost certainly represents an underestimate as many ANS go unreported due to limited search effort and diminishing taxonomic expertise. Temporal rates of detection are also confounded by reporting lags, likely contributing to the lower detection rate observed in recent years. There is a critical need to implement standardized, repeated methods across regions and taxa to improve the quality of global-scale comparisons and sustain core measures over longer time-scales. It will be fundamental to fill in knowledge gaps given that invasion data representing broad regions of the world's oceans are not yet readily available and to maintain knowledge pipelines for adaptive management.},
   ISSN = {1366-9516},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ddi.13167},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Baird2013,
   author = {Baird, Mark E and Ralph, Peter J and Rizwi, Farhan and Wild-Allen, Karen and Steven, Andrew DL},
   title = {A dynamic model of the cellular carbon to chlorophyll ratio applied to a batch culture and a continental shelf ecosystem},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {58},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1215-1226},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2013.58.4.1215},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Balmaseda2013,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena A. and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Källén, Erland},
   title = {Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {9},
   pages = {1754-1759},
   abstract = {The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50382},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Balmaseda2013-2,
   author = {Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso and Mogensen, Kristian and Weaver, Anthony T.},
   title = {Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4},
   journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
   volume = {139},
   number = {674},
   pages = {1132-1161},
   abstract = {Abstract A new operational ocean reanalysis system (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to the present. This article describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals. ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea-level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, the interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26°N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations. ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0–700 m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of sea-surface temperature product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea-level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure.},
   ISSN = {0035-9009},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2063},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Balog2015,
   author = {Balog, I. and Others},
   title = {A numerical approach for planning offshore wind farms from regional to local scales over the Mediterranean},
   journal = {Renewable Energy},
   volume = {85},
   pages = {395-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.038},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2726,
   author = {BALTEX},
   title = {Minutes of 17th Meeting of the BALTEX Science Steering Group held at Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poznan, Poland, 24 - 26 November 2004},
   volume = {International BALTEX Secretariat Publication No. 32},
   pages = {100},
   ISSN = {ISSN 1681-6471},
   DOI = {https://www.baltex-research.eu/publications/SSG_minutes_diverse/BSSG17_minutes05.pdf (last access: 15/02/2022)},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{Baltic2017,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Baltic Earth Science Plan 2017},
   institution = {International Baltic Earth Secretariat Publication No. 11},
   type = {Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Germany},
   DOI = {https://www.baltic.earth/imperia/md/assets/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/baltic_earth/ibesp_no11_feb2017_be_science_plan.pdf},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{Baltic2018,
   author = {Baltic Earth, .},
   title = {Minutes of the 11th Meeting of the Baltic Earth Science Steering Group, held at Konventum Helsingør, Denmark, 10 June 2018},
   volume = {https://baltic.earth/organisation/bessg_material/BESSG_11_Minutes_Final.pdf},
   pages = {12pp},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3289,
   author = {Baltranaitė, Eglė and Povilanskas, Ramūnas and Dučinskas, Kęstutis and Ernšteins, Raimonds and Tõnisson, Hannes},
   title = {Systems Approach to Eastern Baltic Coastal Zone Management},
   journal = {Water},
   volume = {12},
   number = {11},
   abstract = {Relying on the results of multivariate analysis of the re-analysis case studies from the BaltCoast project, specific features of integrated coastal management (ICM) approaches in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Kaliningrad Oblast of the Russian Federation are highlighted in this paper. Eleven Eastern Baltic ICM case studies have been re-analyzed in-depth, which was the main focus of the present paper, covering a wide range of coastal landscapes, themes, policy issues, and ICM approaches. Five principal components explaining 84.86% of the total variance of ICM factor scores have been elicited by calculating rotation sums of squared loadings: (1) Stakeholder Involvement; (2) Research Base; (3) Planning Consistency; (4) Policy Environment, and (5) Development of Plans/Strategies. A truly dedicated involvement of a wide range of stakeholders throughout all process stages showed to be critical for further successful advance of ICM processes and principles based on the systems approach in the Baltic States and the Russian Federation.},
   keywords = {Baltic states
integrated coastal management
systems approach framework
Stakeholder involvement
retrospective analysis},
   ISSN = {2073-4441},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113102},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bamber2019,
   author = {Bamber, Jonathan L. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Kopp, Robert E. and Aspinall, Willy P. and Cooke, Roger M.},
   title = {Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {116},
   number = {23},
   pages = {11195},
   abstract = {Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/116/23/11195.abstract},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Barbosa2016,
   author = {Barbosa, Susana M and Donner, Reik V},
   title = {Long-term changes in the seasonality of Baltic sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {68},
   number = {1},
   pages = {30540},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.30540},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Barnes2013,
   author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
   title = {Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {17},
   pages = {4734-4739},
   abstract = {Previous studies have suggested that Arctic amplification has caused planetary-scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather. Here trends in the meridional extent of atmospheric waves over North America and the North Atlantic are investigated in three reanalyses, and it is demonstrated that previously reported positive trends are likely an artifact of the methodology. No significant decrease in planetary-scale wave phase speeds are found except in October-November-December, but this trend is sensitive to the analysis parameters. Moreover, the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season in any of the three reanalyses, further supporting the lack of trends in wave speed and meridional extent. This work highlights that observed trends in midlatitude weather patterns are complex and likely not simply understood in terms of Arctic amplification alone.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50880},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50880},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Barnston1987,
   author = {Barnston, Anthony G. and Livezey, Robert E.},
   title = {Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns},
   journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
   volume = {115},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1083-1126},
   abstract = {Orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights is used to identify and describe the seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability. The analysis is detailed and comprehensive, in that 1) a high resolution, approximately equal-area 358-point grid is used for the virtually maximum possible 35-year period of record, 2) a positive bias in the NMC data base in the early 1950s in the subtropics is largely eliminated for the first time, and 3) homogeneous, separate analyses of each month of the year are carried out, detailing the mouth-to-month changes in the dominant circulation patterns.Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies except that some less obvious patterns are identified and further detail of the better-known patterns is provided. Two north-south dipole patterns are found over the Pacific Ocean (West Pacific Oscillation and East Pacific pattern) and over the Atlantic Ocean (North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern); two uncorrelated phases of 3-center, approximately east–west wave trains are found over the Eurasian continent (Eurasian Type 1 and Eurasian Type 2 patterns) and North American continent (Pacific/North American and Tropical/Northern Hemisphere patterns) and a Siberian north–south dipole emerges (Northern Asian pattern).The strongest summer pattern is also the strongest winter pattern—the North Atlantic Oscillation, which systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. Another strong summer pattern, named Subtropical Zonal, is a north–south dipole of great zonal extent at low latitudes. A single-center Asian summer pattern is also found. Two other regular patterns are found during transition seasons.An evaluation of the intermonthly and interseasonal persistence of the patterns shows that many of the strong winter patterns have statistically significant persistence in the middle of their active periods, and the Subtropical Zonal summer pattern shows considerable interannual, as well as intermonthly and interseasonal persistence.The robustness of the RPCA results is examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, and by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700 mb height. (Results using 10-day means point the way to use of a larger sample without noticeably obscuring the low-frequency signal.) Moreover, the analyses are repeatedly rerun withholding different sets of years from the record, and results are objectively compared with those using the full 35-year record. The conclusion from all considerations is that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful, as well as statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with pattern choice and depiction superior to those of the teleconnection method.},
   ISSN = {0027-0644},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO},
   year = {1987},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Barregard2019,
   author = {Barregard, Lars and Molnàr, Peter and Jonson, Jan Eiof and Stockfelt, Leo},
   title = {Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions},
   journal = {International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health},
   volume = {16},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1954},
   ISSN = {1660-4601},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16111954},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/16/11/1954},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Barstad2012,
   author = {Barstad, I. and Sorteberg, A. and dos-Santos Mesquita, M.},
   title = {Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {44},
   pages = {398-405},
   DOI = {10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.008},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bartels2018,
   author = {Bartels, Pia and Ask, Jenny and Andersson, Agneta and Karlsson, Jan and Giesler, Reiner},
   title = {Allochthonous Organic Matter Supports Benthic but Not Pelagic Food Webs in Shallow Coastal Ecosystems},
   journal = {Ecosystems},
   volume = {21},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1459-1470},
   abstract = {Rivers transport large amounts of allochthonous organic matter (OM) to the ocean every year, but there are still fundamental gaps in how allochthonous OM is processed in the marine environment. Here, we estimated the relative contribution of allochthonous OM (allochthony) to the biomass of benthic and pelagic consumers in a shallow coastal ecosystem in the northern Baltic Sea. We used deuterium as a tracer of allochthony and assessed both temporal variation (monthly from May to August) and spatial variation (within and outside river plume). We found variability in allochthony in space and time and across species, with overall higher values for zoobenthos (26.2 ± 20.9%) than for zooplankton (0.8 ± 0.3%). Zooplankton allochthony was highest in May and very low during the other months, likely as a result of high inputs of allochthonous OM during the spring flood that fueled the pelagic food chain for a short period. In contrast, zoobenthos allochthony was only lower in June and remained high during the other months. Allochthony of zoobenthos was generally higher close to the river mouth than outside of the river plume, whereas it did not vary spatially for zooplankton. Last, zoobenthos allochthony was higher in deeper than in shallower areas, indicating that allochthonous OM might be more important when autochthonous resources are limited. Our results suggest that climate change predictions of increasing inputs of allochthonous OM to coastal ecosystems may affect basal energy sources supporting coastal food webs.},
   ISSN = {1435-0629},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-018-0233-5},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bartnicki2011,
   author = {Bartnicki, J. and Semeena, V. S. and Fagerli, H.},
   title = {Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in the period 1995–2006},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {19},
   pages = {10057-10069},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-10057-2011},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/11/10057/2011/},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inproceedings{RN3024,
   author = {Bartnicki, Jerzy},
   title = {Atmospheric Contribution to Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea},
   series = {Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   pages = {53-57},
   abstract = {Nitrogen and phosphorus are two main nutrients responsible for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Almost all phosphorus is entering the sea via rivers, whereas 20–30% of nitrogen is deposited from the air. Therefore, there is a need for monitoring atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Baltic Sea. Time series of annual nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea have been calculated for the period 1995–2015 with the same version of the EMEP MSC-W model. They show significant inter annual fluctuations due to changes in meteorological conditions from one year to another. To reduce the influence of meteorological conditions on the results the so called “normalized” depositions have been also calculated. They indicate a clear decline of annual depositions of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea and only minor decline of reduced nitrogen depositions in the considered period. Emissions from Germany and Poland are the main sources contributing to deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin followed by the ship traffic on the Baltic Sea and on the North Sea. Transportation and combustion are the main emission sectors contributing to oxidised nitro-gen deposition, whereas, agriculture is the dominating emission sector contributing to reduced nitrogen deposition.},
   ISBN = {978-3-030-22055-6},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_9},
   type = {Conference Proceedings}
}

@article{Bartoli2018,
   author = {Bartoli, Marco and Zilius, Mindaugas and Bresciani, Mariano and Vaiciute, Diana and Vybernaite-Lubiene, Irma and Petkuviene, Jolita and Giordani, Gianmarco and Daunys, Darius and Ruginis, Tomas and Benelli, Sara and Giardino, Claudia and Bukaveckas, Paul A. and Zemlys, Petras and Griniene, Evelina and Gasiunaite, Zita R. and Lesutiene, Jurate and Pilkaitytė, Renata and Baziukas-Razinkovas, Arturas},
   title = {Drivers of Cyanobacterial Blooms in a Hypertrophic Lagoon},
   journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
   volume = {5},
   number = {434},
   abstract = {The Curonian Lagoon is Europe’s largest lagoon and one of the most seriously impacted by harmful blooms of cyanobacteria. Intensive studies over the past 20 years have allowed us to identify the major drivers determining the composition and spatial extent of hyperblooms in this system. We summarize and discuss the main outcomes of these studies and provide an updated, conceptual scheme of the multiple interactions between climatic and hydrologic factors, and their influence on internal and external processes that promote cyanobacterial blooms. Retrospective analysis of remote sensed images demonstrated the variability of blooms in terms of timing, extension and intensity, suggesting that they occur only under specific circumstances. Monthly analysis of nutrient loads and stoichiometry from the principal tributary (Nemunas River) revealed large interannual differences in the delivery of key elements, but summer months were always characterized by a strong dissolved inorganic N (and Si) limitation, that depresses diatoms and favors the dominance of cyanobacteria. Cyanobacteria blooms occurred during high water temperatures, long water residence time and low-wind conditions. The blooms induce transient (night-time) hypoxia, which stimulates the release of iron-bound P, producing a positive feedback for blooms of N-fixing cyanobacteria. Consumer-mediated nutrient recycling by dreissenid mussels, chironomid larvae, cyprinids and large bird colonies, may also affect P availability, but their role as drivers of cyanobacteria blooms is understudied.},
   keywords = {Curonian Lagoon,Nitrogen,Phosphorus,silica,fluxes,stoichiometry,remote sensing,Cyanobacteria},
   ISSN = {2296-7745},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2018.00434},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bartolino2014,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Margonski, Piotr and Lindegren, Martin and Linderholm, Hans. W. and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Rayner, David and Wennhage, Håkan and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study},
   journal = {Fisheries Oceanography},
   volume = {23},
   number = {3},
   pages = {258-269},
   abstract = {Abstract Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.},
   ISSN = {1054-6006},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/fog.12060},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/fog.12060},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bartolino2017,
   author = {Bartolino, Valerio and Tian, Huidong and Bergström, Ulf and Jounela, Pekka and Aro, Eero and Dieterich, Christian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Bland, Barbara and Casini, Michele},
   title = {Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population},
   journal = {PLOS ONE},
   volume = {12},
   number = {2},
   pages = {e0172004},
   abstract = {Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172004},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bartosova2019,
   author = {Bartosova, Alena and Capell, René and Olesen, Jørgen E. and Jabloun, Mohamed and Refsgaard, Jens Christian and Donnelly, Chantal and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Pihlainen, Sampo and Zandersen, Marianne and Arheimer, Berit},
   title = {Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   number = {11},
   pages = {1325-1336},
   abstract = {The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01243-5},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2741,
   author = {Bartók, Blanka and Wild, Martin and Folini, Doris and Lüthi, Daniel and Kotlarski, Sven and Schär, Christoph and Vautard, Robert and Jerez, Sonia and Imecs, Zoltán},
   title = {Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2665-2683},
   abstract = {The objective of the present work is to compare the projections of surface solar radiation (SSR) simulated by four regional climate models (CCLM, RCA4, WRF, ALADIN) with the respective fields of their ten driving CMIP5 global climate models. First the annual and seasonal SSR changes are examined in the regional and in the global climate models based on the RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The results show significant discrepancies between the projected SSR, the multi-model mean of RCMs indicates a decrease in SSR of −0.60 W/m2 per decade over Europe, while the multi-model mean of the associated GCMs used to drive the RCMs gives an increase in SSR of +0.39 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2006–2100 over Europe. At seasonal scale the largest differences appear in spring and summer. The different signs of SSR projected changes can be interpreted as the consequence of the different behavior of cloud cover in global and regional climate models. Cloudiness shows a significant decline in GCMs with −0.24% per decade which explains the extra income in SSR, while in case of the regional models no significant changes in cloudiness can be detected. The reduction of SSR in RCMs can be attributed to increasing atmospheric absorption in line with the increase of water vapor content. Both global and regional models overestimate SSR in absolute terms as compared to surface observations, in line with an underestimation of cloud cover. Regional models further have difficulties to adequately reproduce the observed trends in SSR over the past decades.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bastos2013,
   author = {Bastos, A and Trigo, R M and Barbosa, S M},
   title = {Discrete wavelet analysis of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Baltic Sea level},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {65},
   number = {1},
   pages = {20077},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.20077},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bates2014,
   author = {Bates, Amanda E. and Pecl, Gretta T. and Frusher, Stewart and Hobday, Alistair J. and Wernberg, Thomas and Smale, Dan A. and Sunday, Jennifer M. and Hill, Nicole A. and Dulvy, Nicholas K. and Colwell, Robert K. and Holbrook, Neil J. and Fulton, Elizabeth A. and Slawinski, Dirk and Feng, Ming and Edgar, Graham J. and Radford, Ben T. and Thompson, Peter A. and Watson, Reg A.},
   title = {Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems},
   journal = {Global Environmental Change},
   volume = {26},
   pages = {27-38},
   abstract = {Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.},
   keywords = {Species redistribution
Attribution
Prediction
Biogeography
Warming
Abundance–occupancy relationship},
   ISSN = {0959-3780},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.009},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014000570},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bauer2019,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Hyytiäinen, Kari and Meier, H. E. Markus and Müller-Karulis, Bärbel and Saraiva, Sofia and Tomczak, Maciej T.},
   title = {Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {48},
   pages = {1337–1349},
   abstract = {We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical–biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bauer2018,
   author = {Bauer, Barbara and Meier, H. E. Markus and Casini, Michele and Hoff, Ayoe and Margoński, Piotr and Orio, Alessandro and Saraiva, Sofia and Steenbeek, Jeroen and Tomczak, Maciej T},
   title = {Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries: a model case study},
   journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science},
   volume = {75},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1306-1317},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsy023},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Baumann2006,
   author = {Baumann, H. and Hinrichsen, H. H. and Möllmann, C. and Köster, F. W. and Malzahn, A. M. and Temming, A.},
   title = {Recruitment variability in Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) is tightly coupled to temperature and transport patterns affecting the larval and early juvenile stages},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {63},
   number = {10},
   pages = {2191-2201},
   abstract = {Recruitment patterns of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus) were correlated to time series of (i) month- and depth-specific temperature conditions and (ii) larval drift patterns inferred from long-term Lagrangian particle simulations. From the latter, we derived an index that likely reflected the variable degree of annual larval transport from the central, deep spawning basins to the shallow coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The drift index was significantly (P < 0.001) correlated to sprat recruitment success and explained, together with sprat spawning stock biomass, 82% of the overall variability between 1979 and 2003. Years of strong larval displacement towards southern and eastern Baltic coasts corresponded to relative recruitment failure, while years of retention within the deep basins were associated with relative recruitment success. The strongest correlation between temperature and recruitment occurred during August in surface waters, explaining 73% of the overall variability. Together, the two approaches advocate that new year classes of Baltic sprat are predominantly composed of individuals born late in the season and are determined in strength mainly by processes acting during the late larval and early juvenile stages. However, prior to be included in recruitment predictions, the biological mechanisms underlying these strong correlations may need to be better resolved.},
   ISSN = {0706-652X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f06-112},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Beaugrand2004,
   author = {Beaugrand, Grégory},
   title = {The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {60},
   number = {2},
   pages = {245-262},
   abstract = {This paper focuses on the ecosystem regime shift in the North Sea that occurred during the period 1982–1988. The evidence for the change is seen from individual species to key ecosystem parameters such as diversity and from phytoplankton to fish. Although many biological/ecosystem parameters and individual species exhibited a stepwise change during the period 1983–1988, some indicators show no evidence of change. The cause of the regime shift is likely to be related to pronounced changes in large-scale hydro-meteorological forcing. This involved activating of complex intermediate physical mechanisms which explains why the exact timing of the shift can vary from 1982 to 1988 (centred around two periods: 1982–1985 and 1987–1988) according to the species or taxonomic group. Increased sea surface temperature and possibly change in wind intensity and direction at the end of the 1970s in the west European basin triggered a change in the location of an oceanic biogeographical boundary along the European continental shelf. This affected both the stable and substrate biotope components of North Sea marine ecosystems (i.e. components related to the water masses and components which are geographically stable) circa 1984. Large-scale hydro-climatic forcing also modified local hydro-meteorological parameters around the North Sea after 1987 affecting the stable biotope components of North Sea ecosystems. Problems related to the detection and quantification of an ecosystem regime shift are discussed.},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2004.02.018},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661104000308},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Belkin2009,
   author = {Belkin, Igor M},
   title = {Rapid warming of large marine ecosystems},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1-4},
   pages = {207-213},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.04.011},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Benassai2014,
   author = {Benassai, G. and Mariani, P. and Stenberg, C. and Christoffersen, M.},
   title = {A Sustainability Index of potential co-location of offshore wind farms and open water aquaculture},
   journal = {Ocean & Coastal Management},
   volume = {95},
   pages = {213-218},
   abstract = {This paper presents the definition of a Sustainability Index for the co-location in marine areas of offshore wind farms and aquaculture plans. The development of the index is focused on the application of MCE technique based on physical constraints and biological parameters that are directly linked to the primary production. The relevant physical factors considered are wind velocity and depth range (which directly governs the choice of the site for energy production and for offshore technology), the relevant biological parameters are SST, SST anomaly and CHL-a concentration (as a measurement of the productivity). The further development of the technique, already used in open water aquaculture localization, consists in converting raw data into sustainability scores, which have been combined using additive models, in order to define the overall sustainability. The study area used to implement the computation of the Sustainability Index (SI) was identified in the Danish portion of the Baltic Sea and in the western part of the Danish North Sea. Results on the spatial distribution of the SI underline different responses as a function of the physical and biological main influencing parameters.},
   ISSN = {0964-5691},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.04.007},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096456911400101X},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bendtsen2013,
   author = {Bendtsen, Jørgen and Hansen, Jørgen L. S.},
   title = {Effects of global warming on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea–North Sea transition zone},
   journal = {Ecological Modelling},
   volume = {264},
   pages = {17-26},
   abstract = {Hypoxic conditions (O2<2mgL−1) are frequently observed in the relatively shallow and stratified North Sea–Baltic Sea transition zone. Inter-annual variability with more extensive hypoxia has been observed in years with calm weather conditions during late summer. A future warmer climate may increase hypoxia in the area due to combined effects from decreased oxygen solubility and increased respiration rates. Feedbacks from climate change can, therefore, amplify negative effects from eutrophication, such as hypoxia. Here we apply a high resolution three-dimensional ocean circulation model with a simple pelagic and benthic oxygen consumption model (OXYCON), based on the seasonal organic carbon budget in the area, and demonstrate that the model is able to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of the observed oxygen concentration in the bottom waters during a three-year period. The potential impact from a warmer climate was analysed in a sensitivity study with a 3°C warmer climate, and showed a significant increase of hypoxic bottom areas compared to present day conditions. The relative role of increased respiration and decreased oxygen solubility in the inflowing bottom water and at the surface was analysed and it was found that decreased solubility accounted for about 25% of the simulated decrease in bottom water oxygen concentration in the centre of the area in the early fall. A sensitivity study showed that the simulated effect from a 3°C temperature increase on the bottom water oxygen concentration could be compensated by a 30% reduction in the export production. The model simulations of the North Sea–Baltic Sea transition zone indicate a significant expansion of the hypoxic areas and a lengthening of the hypoxic period under a warmer climate.},
   keywords = {Hypoxia
Climate change
Baltic Sea
Respiration},
   ISSN = {0304-3800},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.06.018},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380012002906},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Benestad2003,
   author = {Benestad, R. E.},
   title = {How often can we expect a record event?},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {25},
   number = {1},
   pages = {3-13},
   note = {10.3354/cr025003},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: This study applies a simple framework for analysing the incidence of record events. A test of this method on the global mean temperature yields results consistent with a global warming, where record-warm events are more frequent than for a stationary series. The record event analysis suggests that the number of record-warm monthly global mean temperatures is higher than expected, and that the number of record events in the absolute monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries is slightly higher than expected from a null hypothesis of a stationary behaviour. Because the different station series are not strictly independent, it is difficult to resolve whether there is a significant trend in the warmest absolute monthly minimum temperatures in the Nordic countries. The behaviour of the maximum monthly 24 h precipitation is not distinguishable from the null hypothesis that the series consists of independent and identically distributed random variables.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v25/n1/p3-13/},
   year = {2003},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bengtsson2010,
   author = {Bengtsson, Lennart},
   title = {The global atmospheric water cycle},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {5},
   number = {2},
   pages = {25202},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025002},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bengtsson2009,
   author = {Bengtsson, Lennart and Hodges, Kevin I. and Keenlyside, Noel},
   title = {Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {22},
   number = {9},
   pages = {2276-2301},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2678.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/9/2008jcli2678.1.xml},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2412,
   author = {Beranová, Romana and Huth, Radan},
   title = {Time variations of the effects of circulation variability modes on European temperature and precipitation in winter},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {28},
   number = {2},
   pages = {139-158},
   abstract = {Abstract Five modes of variability are identified in winter monthly mean 500 hPa heights over the Euro-Atlantic sector by rotated principal component analysis. Time variations of the effects of the modes on temperature and precipitation at more than 100 European stations are examined for period 1958–1998. Time variations are investigated by running correlations with the 15-year window. At most of the stations, the correlations with circulation patterns vary considerably in time, both for temperature and precipitation. The spatial structure of the variations is assessed by cluster analysis of time variations of correlations. The groupings together with changes in the intensity and position of the circulation modes suggest possible mechanisms of the time variations in the circulation-to-climate effects. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1516},
   url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1516},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bergen2016,
   author = {Bergen, Benjamin and Endres, Sonja and Engel, Anja and Zark, Maren and Dittmar, Thorsten and Sommer, Ulrich and Jürgens, Klaus},
   title = {Acidification and warming affect prominent bacteria in two seasonal phytoplankton bloom mesocosms},
   journal = {Environmental Microbiology},
   volume = {18},
   number = {12},
   pages = {4579-4595},
   abstract = {Summary In contrast to clear stimulatory effects of rising temperature, recent studies of the effects of CO2 on planktonic bacteria have reported conflicting results. To better understand the potential impact of predicted climate scenarios on the development and performance of bacterial communities, we performed bifactorial mesocosm experiments (pCO2 and temperature) with Baltic Sea water, during a diatom dominated bloom in autumn and a mixed phytoplankton bloom in summer. The development of bacterial community composition (BCC) followed well-known algal bloom dynamics. A principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) of bacterial OTUs (operational taxonomic units) revealed that phytoplankton succession and temperature were the major variables structuring the bacterial community whereas the impact of pCO2 was weak. Prokaryotic abundance and carbon production, and organic matter concentration and composition were partly affected by temperature but not by increased pCO2. However, pCO2 did have significant and potentially direct effects on the relative abundance of several dominant OTUs; in some cases, these effects were accompanied by an antagonistic impact of temperature. Our results suggest the necessity of high-resolution BCC analyses and statistical analyses at the OTU level to detect the strong impact of CO2 on specific bacterial groups, which in turn might also influence specific organic matter degradation processes.},
   ISSN = {1462-2912},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.13549},
   url = {https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1462-2920.13549},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bergenius2013,
   author = {Bergenius, Mikaela AJ and Gårdmark, Anna and Ustups, Didzis and Kaljuste, Olavi and Aho, Teija},
   title = {Fishing or the environment–what regulates recruitment of an exploited marginal vendace (Coregonus albula (L.)) population?},
   journal = {Advances in Limnology},
   volume = {64},
   pages = {57-70},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1127/1612-166X/2013/0064-0029},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Berglund2007,
   author = {Berglund, Johnny and Müren, Umut and Båmstedt, Ulf and Andersson, Agneta},
   title = {Efficiency of a phytoplankton-based and a bacterial-based food web in a pelagic marine system},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {52},
   number = {1},
   pages = {121-131},
   abstract = {The food web efficiency in two contrasting food webs, one phytoplankton based and one bacteria based, was studied in a mesocosm experiment using seawater from the northern Baltic Sea. Organisms included in the experiment were bacteria, phytoplankton, protozoa, and mesozooplankton (copepods). A phytoplankton-based food web was generated by incubating at a high light level with the addition of nitrogen and phosphorus (NP). A bacteria-based food web was created by adding carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (CNP) and incubating at a lower light level. In the CNP treatment bacteria dominated the productivity (91%), while in the NP treatment phytoplankton were dominant producers (74%). The phytoplankton community in the NP treatment was dominated by autotrophic nanoflagellates. The food web efficiency, defined as mesozooplankton productivity per basal productivity (phytoplankton + bacteria), was 22% in the phytoplankton-based food web and 2% in the bacteria-based food web. This discrepancy could be explained by 1-2 extra trophic levels in the bacteria-based food web where carbon passed through flagellates and ciliates before reaching mesozooplankton, while in the phytoplankton-based food web there was a direct pathway from phytoplankton to mesozooplankton. The results were supported by stable isotope analysis of mesozooplankton. We propose that climate change, with increased precipitation and river runoff in the Baltic Sea, might favor a bacteria-based food web and thereby reduce pelagic productivity at higher trophic levels.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0121},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0121},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2510,
   author = {Bergström, L. and Heikinheimo, O. and Svirgsden, R. and Kruze, E. and Ložys, L. and Lappalainen, A. and Saks, L. and Minde, A. and Dainys, J. and Jakubavičiūtė, E. and Ådjers, K. and Olsson, J.},
   title = {Long term changes in the status of coastal fish in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science},
   volume = {169},
   pages = {74-84},
   abstract = {Management for sustainable coastal ecosystems is benefited by coherent large scale status assessments to support the identification of measures, but these efforts may be challenged by both data availability and natural biogeographical variation. Coastal fish are a resource for commercial and recreational fisheries as well as significant contributors to coastal ecosystem functioning, by linking lower and higher levels of the food web. This study addresses long term changes in coastal fish communities at Baltic Sea regional scale, in order to identify overall trends and support the operationalization of large scale status assessments of marine biota. The study was focused on two indicators representing the functional groups of Piscivores, which are attributed to changes in food web processes including predation/fisheries, and Cyprinids, which are associated with eutrophication. The indicators were assessed for trends within ten-year intervals, using data combined from national monitoring programs during 1991–2013. The results showed predominantly declining trends in Piscivores and of increases in Cyprinids during the studied three decades, both indicative of a deteriorating status. The pattern was however reversed in the most recent years. Similar results among adjacent areas were identified in some cases, but overall differences at local scale were high, indicating strong influence of local processes. The results suggest that coordinated local measures in order to abate cumulative effects are a preferred way of improving the overall status of coastal fish. The latest studied time intervals were the overall most stable and could be considered as potential baseline years for upcoming regional assessments.},
   keywords = {Coastal fish
Environmental status
Cyprinids
Piscivores
Eutrophication
Fishing},
   ISSN = {0272-7714},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2015.12.013},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771415301700},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3296,
   author = {Bergström, Lena and Kautsky, Lena and Malm, Torleif and Rosenberg, Rutger and Wahlberg, Magnus and Åstrand Capetillo, Nastassja and Wilhelmsson, Dan},
   title = {Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife—a generalized impact assessment},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {9},
   number = {3},
   pages = {034012},
   abstract = {Marine management plans over the world express high expectations to the development of offshore wind energy. This would obviously contribute to renewable energy production, but potential conflicts with other usages of the marine landscape, as well as conservation interests, are evident. The present study synthesizes the current state of understanding on the effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife, in order to identify general versus local conclusions in published studies. The results were translated into a generalized impact assessment for coastal waters in Sweden, which covers a range of salinity conditions from marine to nearly fresh waters. Hence, the conclusions are potentially applicable to marine planning situations in various aquatic ecosystems. The assessment considered impact with respect to temporal and spatial extent of the pressure, effect within each ecosystem component, and level of certainty. Research on the environmental effects of offshore wind farms has gone through a rapid maturation and learning process, with the bulk of knowledge being developed within the past ten years. The studies showed a high level of consensus with respect to the construction phase, indicating that potential impacts on marine life should be carefully considered in marine spatial planning. Potential impacts during the operational phase were more locally variable, and could be either negative or positive depending on biological conditions as well as prevailing management goals. There was paucity in studies on cumulative impacts and long-term effects on the food web, as well as on combined effects with other human activities, such as the fisheries. These aspects remain key open issues for a sustainable marine spatial planning.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034012},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034012},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2415,
   author = {Bergström, Sten and Carlsson, Bengt},
   title = {River runoff to the Baltic Sea - 1950-1990},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {23},
   number = {4-5},
   pages = {280-287},
   note = {2018-01-10T20:51:45.461+01:00},
   abstract = {A database of monthly inflow of fresh water from rivers and land to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins is created. The database covers the period 1950-1990 and is based on observations from the national hydrological services of the surrounding countries. The main features of the database are presented including river flow of selected rivers and total inflow to the Baltic Sea and its subbasins. Long term, seasonal and short-term variabilities are analyzed and the effects of hydropower development are identified. An earlier database by Mikulski is used for comparison and extension of the record to cover the period 1921-1990. It is concluded that the variability of inflow is great and that the decade 1981-1990 was the wettest in 70 years. Wet years are also found in the 1920s. The increase in runoff is mainly due to increasing river flow during the cold seasons. The effects of hydropower development are noticeable in the records for the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea.},
   keywords = {Natural Sciences
Naturvetenskap
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser},
   ISSN = {00447447 (ISSN)
16547209 (EISSN)},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1661},
   year = {1994},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Berliand1952,
   author = {Berliand, M E and Berliand, T G},
   title = {Measurement of the effective radiation of the Earth with varying cloud amounts},
   journal = {Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geofiz},
   volume = {1},
   pages = {64-78},
   year = {1952},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2511,
   author = {Bermúdez, R. and Winder, M. and Stuhr, A. and Almén, A. K. and Engström-Öst, J. and Riebesell, U.},
   title = {Effect of ocean acidification on the structure and fatty acid composition of a natural plankton community in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Biogeosciences},
   volume = {13},
   number = {24},
   pages = {6625-6635},
   note = {BG},
   ISSN = {1726-4189},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6625-2016},
   url = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/13/6625/2016/},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Berndt2005,
   author = {Berndt, RK and Hein, K and Koop, B and Lunk, S},
   title = {Die Vögel der Insel Fehmarn},
   journal = {Husum Druck-u. Verlagsgesellschaft},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Berner2018,
   author = {Berner, Christoffer and Bertos-Fortis, Mireia and Pinhassi, Jarone and Legrand, Catherine},
   title = {Response of Microbial Communities to Changing Climate Conditions During Summer Cyanobacterial Blooms in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Frontiers in Microbiology},
   volume = {9},
   number = {1562},
   abstract = {Frequencies and biomass of Baltic Sea cyanobacterial blooms are expected to be higher in future climate conditions, but also of longer duration as a result of increased sea surface temperature. Concurrently, climate predictions indicate a reduced salinity in the Baltic Sea. These climate-driven changes are expected to alter not solely the phytoplankton community but also the role of microbial communities for nutrient remineralization. Here, we present the response of summer plankton communities (filamentous cyanobacteria, picocyanobacteria, and heterotrophic bacteria) to the interplay of increasing temperature (from 16 to 18°C and 20°C) and reduced salinity (from salinity 6.9 to 5.9) in the Baltic Proper (NW Gotland Sea) using a microcosm approach. Warmer temperatures led to an earlier peak of cyanobacterial biomass, while yields were reduced. These conditions caused a decrease of nitrogen-fixers (Dolichospermum sp.) biomass, while non nitrogen-fixers (Pseudanabaena sp.) increased. Salinity reduction did not affect cyanobacterial growth nor community composition. Among heterotrophic bacteria, Actinobacteria showed preference for high temperature, while Gammaproteobacteria thrived at in situ temperature. Heterotrophic bacteria community changed drastically at lower salinity and resembled communities at high temperature. Picocyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacterial biomass had a pronounced increase associated with the decay of filamentous cyanobacteria. This suggests that shifts in community composition of heterotrophic bacteria are influenced both directly by abiotic factors (temperature and salinity) and potentially indirectly by cyanobacteria. Our findings suggest that at warmer temperature, lower yield of photosynthetic cyanobacteria combined with lower proportion of nitrogen-fixers in the community could result in lower carbon export to the marine food web with consequences for the decomposer community of heterotrophic bacteria.},
   keywords = {Microscopy,16S rRNA,Cyanobacteria,heterotrophic bacteria,biomass,Summer bloom,Baltic Sea,Climate Change},
   ISSN = {1664-302X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01562},
   url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01562},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bertilsson1999,
   author = {Bertilsson, Stefan and Stepanauskas, Ramonas and Cuadros-Hansson, Rocio and Graneli, Wilhelm and Wikner, Johan and Tranvik, Lars},
   title = {Photochemically induced changes in bioavailable carbon and nitrogen pools in a boreal watershed},
   journal = {Aquatic Microbial Ecology},
   volume = {19},
   number = {1},
   pages = {47-56},
   note = {2018-06-08T10:35:32.666+02:00},
   abstract = {In several recent studies, a net stimulation of bacterial growth has been demonstrated after exposing humic surface waters to solar radiation or artificial ultraviolet radiation. This stimulation has been attributed to a photochemical release of bioavailable carbon or nitrogen compounds (ammonium). In a synoptic experiment, we exposed 0.2 mu m filtered water from 12 different habitats in a river system, dominated by allochthonous carbon input, to mild artificial UV radiation. A significant photochemical release of carboxylic acids of low molecular weight occurred. Furthermore, the exposure increased carbon-limited bacterial yield on average by a factor of 1.7. No photochemical production of free ammonium could be detected, which was in accordance with the lack of effects of radiation on bacterial growth yield under nitrogen-limited conditions. We conclude that, in boreal systems dominated by allochthonous carbon input, photochemical production of bioavailable carbon rather than nitrogen compounds is likely to positively influence the total substrate pool available for bacterial utilization.},
   keywords = {UV radiation
DOC
DON
bacterial bioassays
carboxylic acids
ammonium
Microbiology
Mikrobiologi},
   ISSN = {09483055 (ISSN)
16161564 (EISSN)},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/ame019047},
   url = {http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-52548},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bethere2017,
   author = {Bethere, L. and Sennikovs, J. and Bethers, U.},
   title = {Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},
   pages = {951-962},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/951/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bichet2012,
   author = {Bichet, A. and Others},
   title = {Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land: sensitivity studies with a global climate model},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {39},
   pages = {L11701},
   DOI = {10.1029/2012GL051685},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051685},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bierstedt2017,
   author = {Bierstedt, S. E. and Hünicke, B. and Zorita, E. and Ludwig, J.},
   title = {A wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movement},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {3},
   pages = {639-652},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-639-2017},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/8/639/2017/},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bierstedt2015,
   author = {Bierstedt, Svenja E. and Hünicke, Birgit and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Variability of wind direction statistics of mean and extreme wind events over the Baltic Sea region},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {67},
   number = {1},
   pages = {29073},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.29073},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Binczewska2018,
   author = {Binczewska, Anna and Moros, Matthias and Polovodova Asteman, Irina and Sławińska, Joanna and Bak, Małgorzata},
   title = {Changes in the inflow of saline water into the Bornholm Basin (SW Baltic Sea) during the past 7100 years–evidence from benthic foraminifera record},
   journal = {Boreas},
   volume = {47},
   number = {1},
   pages = {297-310},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12267},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Bindoff2019,
   author = {Bindoff, N.L. and Cheung, W.W.L. and Kairo, J.G. and Arístegui, J. and Guinder, V.A. and Hallberg, R. and Hilmi, N. and Jiao, N. and Karim, M.S. and Levin, L. and O’Donoghue, S. and Cuicapusa, S.R. Purca and Rinkevich, B. and Suga, T. and Tagliabue, A. and Williamson, P.},
   title = {Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities},
   booktitle = {IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate},
   editor = {Pörtner, H.-O. and Roberts, D.C. and Masson-Delmotte, V. and Zhai, P. and Tignor, M. and Poloczanska, E. and Mintenbeck, K. and Alegría, A. and Nicolai, M. and Okem, A. and Petzold, J. and Rama, B. and Weyer, N.M.},
   chapter = {5},
   pages = {142pp},
   DOI = {https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-5/},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Bingham2012,
   author = {Bingham, R. J. and Hughes, C. W.},
   title = {Local diagnostics to estimate density-induced sea level variations over topography and along coastlines},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
   volume = {117},
   number = {C01013},
   abstract = {In the open ocean, sea level variability is primarily steric in origin. Steric sea level is given by the depth integral of the density field, raising the question of how tide gauges, which are situated in very shallow water, feel deep ocean variability. Here this question is examined in a high-resolution global ocean model. By considering a series of assumptions we show that if we wish to reconstruct coastal sea level using only local density information, then the best assumption we can make is one of no horizontal pressure gradient, and therefore no geostrophic flow, at the seafloor. Coastal sea level can then be determined using density at the ocean's floor. When attempting to discriminate between mass and volume components of sea level measured by tide gauges, the conventional approach is to take steric height at deep-ocean sites close to the tide gauges as an estimate of the steric component. We find that with steric height computed at 3000 m this approach only works well in the equatorial band of the Atlantic and Pacific eastern boundaries. In most cases the steric correction can be improved by calculating steric height closer to shore, with the best results obtained in the depth range 500–1000 m. Yet, for western boundaries, large discrepancies remain. Our results therefore suggest that on time scales up to about 5 years, and perhaps longer, the presence of boundary currents means that the conventional steric correction to tide gauges may not be valid in many places.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007276},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011JC007276},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Biskaborn2019,
   author = {Biskaborn, Boris K. and Smith, Sharon L. and Noetzli, Jeannette and Matthes, Heidrun and Vieira, Gonçalo and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Schoeneich, Philippe and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Abramov, Andrey and Allard, Michel and Boike, Julia and Cable, William L. and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Delaloye, Reynald and Diekmann, Bernhard and Drozdov, Dmitry and Etzelmüller, Bernd and Grosse, Guido and Guglielmin, Mauro and Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas and Isaksen, Ketil and Ishikawa, Mamoru and Johansson, Margareta and Johannsson, Halldor and Joo, Anseok and Kaverin, Dmitry and Kholodov, Alexander and Konstantinov, Pavel and Kröger, Tim and Lambiel, Christophe and Lanckman, Jean-Pierre and Luo, Dongliang and Malkova, Galina and Meiklejohn, Ian and Moskalenko, Natalia and Oliva, Marc and Phillips, Marcia and Ramos, Miguel and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Sergeev, Dmitrii and Seybold, Cathy and Skryabin, Pavel and Vasiliev, Alexander and Wu, Qingbai and Yoshikawa, Kenji and Zheleznyak, Mikhail and Lantuit, Hugues},
   title = {Permafrost is warming at a global scale},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   volume = {10},
   number = {1},
   pages = {264},
   abstract = {Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.},
   ISSN = {2041-1723},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bjerknes1904,
   author = {Bjerknes, V.},
   title = {Das Problem der Wettervorhers-age, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der Physik},
   journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
   volume = {21},
   pages = {1-7},
   url = {https://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10019447520/en/},
   year = {1904},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2339,
   author = {Björkqvist, J. V. and Rikka, S. and Alari, V. and Männik, A. and Tuomi, L. and Pettersson, H.},
   title = {Wave height return periods from combined measurement–model data: A Baltic Sea case study},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
   volume = {2020},
   pages = {1-25},
   note = {NHESSD
https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2020-190/nhess-2020-190.pdf},
   ISSN = {2195-9269},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-190},
   url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/preprints/nhess-2020-190/},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2338,
   author = {Björkqvist, Jan-Victor and Lukas, Ingvar and Alari, Victor and van Vledder, Gerbrant Ph and Hulst, Sander and Pettersson, Heidi and Behrens, Arno and Männik, Aarne},
   title = {Comparing a 41-year model hindcast with decades of wave measurements from the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ocean Engineering},
   volume = {152},
   pages = {57-71},
   abstract = {We present ice-free and ice-included statistics for the Baltic Sea using a wave hindcast validated against data from 13 wave measurement sites. In the hindcast 84% of wave events with a significant wave height over 7 m occurred between November and January. The effect of the ice cover is largest in the Bay of Bothnia, where the mean significant wave height is reduced by 30% when the ice time is included in the statistics. The difference between these two statistics are less than 0.05 m below a latitude of 59.5°. The seasonal ice cover also causes measurement gaps by forcing an early recovery of the instruments. Including the time not captured by the wave buoy can affect the estimates for the significant wave height by roughly 20%. The impact below the 99th percentiles are still under 5%. The significant wave height is modelled accurately even close to the shore, but the highest peak periods are underestimated in a narrow bay. Sensitivity test show that this underestimation is most likely caused by an excessive refraction towards the shore. Reconsidering the role of the spatial resolution and the physical processes affecting the low-frequency waves is suggested as a possible solution.},
   keywords = {Wave statistics
Ice-cover
SWAN
Exceedance values
Measurement gaps
Wave height},
   ISSN = {0029-8018},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.01.048},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801818300489},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Blackport2020,
   author = {Blackport, Russell and Screen, James A.},
   title = {Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves},
   journal = {Science Advances},
   volume = {6},
   number = {8},
   pages = {eaay2880},
   abstract = {Whether Arctic amplification has contributed to a wavier circulation and more frequent extreme weather in midlatitudes remains an open question. For two to three decades starting from the mid-1980s, accelerated Arctic warming and a reduced meridional near-surface temperature gradient coincided with a wavier circulation. However, waviness remains largely unchanged in model simulations featuring strong Arctic amplification. Here, we show that the previously reported trend toward a wavier circulation during autumn and winter has reversed in recent years, despite continued Arctic amplification, resulting in negligible multidecadal trends. Models capture the observed correspondence between a reduced temperature gradient and increased waviness on interannual to decadal time scales. However, model experiments in which a reduced temperature gradient is imposed do not feature increased wave amplitude. Our results strongly suggest that the observed and simulated covariability between waviness and temperature gradients on interannual to decadal time scales does not represent a forced response to Arctic amplification.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880},
   url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/8/eaay2880.abstract},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Blenckner2015,
   author = {Blenckner, Thorsten and Österblom, Henrik and Larsson, Per and Andersson, Agneta and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {44},
   number = {3},
   pages = {507-515},
   abstract = {Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0661-9},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Blindow2016,
   author = {Blindow, Irmgard and Dahlke, Sven and Dewart, Annika and Flügge, Sandra and Hendreschke, Marko and Kerkow, Antje and Meyer, Jutta},
   title = {Long-term and interannual changes of submerged macrophytes and their associated diaspore reservoir in a shallow southern Baltic Sea bay: influence of eutrophication and climate},
   journal = {Hydrobiologia},
   volume = {778},
   number = {1},
   pages = {121-136},
   abstract = {Long-term and interannual changes in composition of submerged vegetation, diaspore reservoir and germination were investigated in the lagoon system Westrügensche Boddenkette, Baltic Sea, north-east Germany. Comparison with a survey from 1932, showed vegetation cover is similar to the past, maintaining high cover to depths of 2.8 m despite a period of eutrophication between about 1960 and 1990. Species dominance shifted, however, from small charophytes to larger species like Potamogeton pectinatus. We explain interannual vegetation changes by weather conditions. Such changes were observed in several species, most notably in Chara canescens. This annual species seems to be favoured by extensive winter ice cover. The diaspore reservoir and the germination success of submerged macrophytes do not mirror their frequency in the vegetation, but rather reflect life form strategies. Small oospores, mainly of annual charophytes, represented >97% of all diaspores but very few Chara oospores germinated. The numerous Tolypella oospores probably originated from a discrete period with high abundance during the 1950s and have completely failed to germinate. Angiosperm seeds are larger and less frequent but have higher germination success, especially Ruppia seeds. In conclusion, charophytes are outcompeted by larger angiosperms due to the combined effect of moderate eutrophication and climate change.},
   ISSN = {1573-5117},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-016-2655-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-016-2655-4},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Block2013,
   author = {Block, K and Mauritsen, T},
   title = {Forcing and feedback in the MPI-ESM-LR coupled model under abruptly quadrupled CO2},
   journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
   volume = {5},
   number = {4},
   pages = {676-691},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20041},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Blomqvist2004,
   author = {Blomqvist, Sven and Gunnars, Anneli and Elmgren, Ragnar},
   title = {Why the limiting nutrient differs between temperate coastal seas and freshwater lakes: A matter of salt},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {49},
   number = {6},
   pages = {2236-2241},
   abstract = {Comparison of bottom-water chemistry in the marine-limnic habitat gradient shows greater phosphorus availability in marine waters, primarily because of enhanced iron sequestration by sulfide. In the oxidative hydrolysis of iron and the concomitant precipitation of phosphate, a minimum of two iron atoms are needed to precipitate one phosphate molecule (Fe : P = 2). However, dissolved Fe : P < 2 predominates in anoxic marine waters, therefore leaving some phosphate in solution after oxygenation because of a shortage of dissolved iron for phosphate coprecipitation by iron oxyhydroxide. In contrast, anoxic bottom waters in most freshwater lakes show Fe : P > 2, allowing almost complete phosphate removal on oxygenation. This difference is a consequence of the high sulfate content of sea salt, and a main reason why nitrogen normally limits net primary production in temperate coastal waters, in contrast to the predominant phosphorus limitation of near-neutral lakes.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2004.49.6.2236},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2004.49.6.2236},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bloom2008,
   author = {Bloom, A. and Kotroni, V. and Lagouvardos, K.},
   title = {Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS},
   journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {8},
   pages = {1249-1257},
   DOI = {10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-1249-2008},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Blunden2015,
   author = {Blunden, Jessica and Arndt, Derek S.},
   title = {State of the Climate in 2014},
   journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
   volume = {96},
   number = {7},
   pages = {ES1-ES32},
   ISSN = {0003-0007},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2015BAMSStateoftheClimate.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/7/2015bamsstateoftheclimate.1.xml},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3041,
   author = {Blöschl, Günter and Hall, Julia and Parajka, Juraj and Perdigão, Rui A. P. and Merz, Bruno and Arheimer, Berit and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Bilibashi, Ardian and Bonacci, Ognjen and Borga, Marco and Čanjevac, Ivan and Castellarin, Attilio and Chirico, Giovanni B. and Claps, Pierluigi and Fiala, Károly and Frolova, Natalia and Gorbachova, Liudmyla and Gül, Ali and Hannaford, Jamie and Harrigan, Shaun and Kireeva, Maria and Kiss, Andrea and Kjeldsen, Thomas R. and Kohnová, Silvia and Koskela, Jarkko J. and Ledvinka, Ondrej and Macdonald, Neil and Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria and Mediero, Luis and Merz, Ralf and Molnar, Peter and Montanari, Alberto and Murphy, Conor and Osuch, Marzena and Ovcharuk, Valeryia and Radevski, Ivan and Rogger, Magdalena and Salinas, José L. and Sauquet, Eric and Šraj, Mojca and Szolgay, Jan and Viglione, Alberto and Volpi, Elena and Wilson, Donna and Zaimi, Klodian and Živković, Nenad},
   title = {Changing climate shifts timing of European floods},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {357},
   number = {6351},
   pages = {588},
   abstract = {Will a warming climate affect river floods? The prevailing sentiment is yes, but a consistent signal in flood magnitudes has not been found. Blöschl et al. analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past 50 years and found clear patterns of changes in flood timing that can be ascribed to climate effects (see the Perspective by Slater and Wilby). These variations include earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe, later winter floods around the North Sea and parts of the Mediterranean coast owing to delayed winter storms, and earlier winter floods in western Europe caused by earlier soil moisture maxima.Science, this issue p. 588 see also p. 552A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506},
   url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6351/588.abstract},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bobsien2021,
   author = {Bobsien, Ivo C. and Hukriede, Wolfgang and Schlamkow, Christian and Friedland, René and Dreier, Norman and Schubert, Philipp R. and Karez, Rolf and Reusch, Thorsten B. H.},
   title = {Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {50},
   number = {2},
   pages = {400-412},
   abstract = {For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01364-2},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01364-2},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bodin1979,
   author = {Bodin, Svante},
   title = {A predictive numerical model of the atmospheric boundary layer based on the turbulent energy equation},
   year = {1979},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Boers2021,
   author = {Boers, Niklas},
   title = {Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {11},
   number = {8},
   pages = {680-688},
   abstract = {The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Boland2017,
   author = {Boland, Emma J. D. and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Shuckburgh, Emily F.},
   title = {Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {49},
   number = {1},
   pages = {683-702},
   abstract = {The Arctic is currently undergoing drastic changes in climate, largely thought to be due to so-called ‘Arctic amplification’, whereby local feedbacks enhance global warming. Recently, a number of observational and modelling studies have questioned what the implications of this change in Arctic sea ice extent might be for weather in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and in particular whether recent extremely cold winters such as 2009/10 might be consistent with an influence from observed Arctic sea ice decline. However, the proposed mechanisms for these links have not been consistently demonstrated. In a uniquely comprehensive cross-season and cross-model study, we show that the CMIP5 models provide no support for a relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and a negative NAM, or between declining Barents–Kara sea ice and cold European temperatures. The lack of evidence for the proposed links is consistent with studies that report a low signal-to-noise ratio in these relationships. These results imply that, whilst links may exist between declining sea ice and extreme cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, the CMIP5 model experiments do not show this to be a leading order effect in the long-term. We argue that this is likely due to a combination of the limitations of the CMIP5 models and an indication of other important long-term influences on Northern Hemisphere climate.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3367-1},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bonaduce2019,
   author = {Bonaduce, Antonio and Staneva, Joanna and Behrens, Arno and Bidlot, Jean-Raymond and Wilcke, Renate Anna Irma},
   title = {Wave Climate Change in the North Sea and Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
   volume = {7},
   number = {6},
   pages = {166},
   ISSN = {2077-1312},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7060166},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/7/6/166},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bonan2016,
   author = {Bonan, Gordon B.},
   title = {Forests, Climate, and Public Policy: A 500-Year Interdisciplinary Odyssey},
   journal = {Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics},
   volume = {47},
   number = {1},
   pages = {97-121},
   abstract = {Forests regulate climate at local, regional, and global scales through exchanges of momentum, energy, moisture, and chemicals with the atmosphere. The notion that forests affect climate is not new. A vigorous debate about deforestation, land use, and climate change occurred during the colonial settlement of North America and continued through the 1800s, but the arguments of conservationists and foresters for forest–climate influences were dismissed by meteorologists. Modern climate science shows that forests warm climate annually by decreasing surface albedo, cool climate through surface roughness and evapotranspiration and by storing carbon, and have additional effects through atmospheric chemistry. Land use is a key aspect of climate policy, but we lack comprehensive policy recommendations. Like our predecessors, we are seeking a deeper understanding of Earth's climate, its ecosystems, and our uses of those ecosystems, and just as importantly we are still searching for the right interdisciplinary framework in which to find those answers.},
   keywords = {climate change,land use,deforestation,forest–climate influences,Earth system model,geoengineering},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359},
   url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032359},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bonsdorff2006,
   author = {Bonsdorff, Erik},
   title = {Zoobenthic diversity-gradients in the Baltic Sea: continuous post-glacial succession in a stressed ecosystem},
   journal = {Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology},
   volume = {330},
   number = {1},
   pages = {383-391},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2005.12.041},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bonsdorff2021,
   author = {Bonsdorff, Erik},
   title = {Eutrophication: Early warning signals, ecosystem-level and societal responses, and ways forward},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {50},
   pages = {753–758},
   abstract = {Eutrophication, i.e. nutrient over-enrichment, has been a topic for academic and societal debate for the past five decades both on land and in aquatic systems fed by nutrients as diffuse loading from agricultural lands and as wastewater from industrial and municipal point-sources. The use of nutrients (primarily nitrogen and phosphorus) in excess became a problem with the onset of large-scale production and use of artificial fertilizers after World War II, and the effects on the aquatic environment became obvious some two to three decades later. In this Perspective, four seminal papers on eutrophication are discussed in light of the current knowledge of the problem, including future perspectives and outlooks in the light of global climate change and the demand for science-based holistic ecosystem-level policies and management options.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s1328050},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01432-7},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Borcherding1991,
   author = {Borcherding, Jost},
   title = {The annual reproductive cycle of the freshwater mussel Dreissena polymorpha Pallas in lakes},
   journal = {Oecologia},
   volume = {87},
   number = {2},
   pages = {208-218},
   abstract = {The annual development of the gonads of Dreissena polymorpha was studied at three sampling sites in two lakes over 3 and 1 1/2 years, respectively. A resting stage occurred after the last spawning in summer/autumn. Oogenesis (accompanied by multiplying segmentation of the oogonia and early growth processes of its oocytes) restarted in specimens at least 1 year old at low temperatures (below 10° C) during winter and early spring. At one location (Fühlinger See) the onset of the spawning season was correlated with an increase of water temperatures above 12° C. At 2 m depth, two main spawning periods in May and August were normally recognized, the first at temperatures of 12–16° C, the second at 16–21° C. It was clearly demonstrated for the first time in Dreissena polymorpha that the oocytes became mature in successive cohorts within one gonad. A female mussel may spawn several times during the reproductive season. At 9 m depth, the onset of spawning also started at about 12° C; this occurred in late summer, with two spawning periods within 1 month at a temperature range of 12–16° C. At another location (Heider Bergsee) the size of the gonads and the oocytes was reduced during April of both years studied, when food supply was low simultaneously with rapidly rising water temperatures in this shallow lake. There was no spawning period during spring. The major spawning period was delayed until July (temperatures 19–22°C). This shows (1) the synchronizing influence of low winter temperatures on the annual reproductive cycle and (2) a temperature threshold of at least 12° C for the start of the spawning processes. The results are discussed with regard to the geographical limits of further spread of Dreissena polymorpha.},
   ISSN = {1432-1939},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00325258},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00325258},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Borchert2021,
   author = {Borchert, Leonard F. and Menary, Matthew B. and Swingedouw, Didier and Sgubin, Giovanni and Hermanson, Leon and Mignot, Juliette},
   title = {Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {48},
   number = {3},
   pages = {e2020GL091307},
   abstract = {Abstract Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5–7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining ∼55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091307},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL091307},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bouwman2013,
   author = {Bouwman, Lex and Goldewijk, Kees Klein and Van Der Hoek, Klaas W. and Beusen, Arthur H. W. and Van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Willems, Jaap and Rufino, Mariana C. and Stehfest, Elke},
   title = {Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900–2050 period},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {110},
   number = {52},
   pages = {20882},
   abstract = {Crop-livestock production systems are the largest cause of human alteration of the global nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. Our comprehensive spatially explicit inventory of N and P budgets in livestock and crop production systems shows that in the beginning of the 20th century, nutrient budgets were either balanced or surpluses were small; between 1900 and 1950, global soil N surplus almost doubled to 36 trillion grams (Tg)·y−1 and P surplus increased by a factor of 8 to 2 Tg·y−1. Between 1950 and 2000, the global surplus increased to 138 Tg·y−1 of N and 11 Tg·y−1 of P. Most surplus N is an environmental loss; surplus P is lost by runoff or accumulates as residual soil P. The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development scenario portrays a world with a further increasing global crop (+82% for 2000–2050) and livestock production (+115%); despite rapidly increasing recovery in crop (+35% N recovery and +6% P recovery) and livestock (+35% N and P recovery) production, global nutrient surpluses continue to increase (+23% N and +54% P), and in this period, surpluses also increase in Africa (+49% N and +236% P) and Latin America (+75% N and +120% P). Alternative management of livestock production systems shows that combinations of intensification, better integration of animal manure in crop production, and matching N and P supply to livestock requirements can effectively reduce nutrient flows. A shift in human diets, with poultry or pork replacing beef, can reduce nutrient flows in countries with intensive ruminant production.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1012878108},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/110/52/20882.abstract},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3410,
   author = {Boé, Julien and Somot, Samuel and Corre, Lola and Nabat, Pierre},
   title = {Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {54},
   number = {5},
   pages = {2981-3002},
   abstract = {We assess the differences of future climate changes over Europe in summer as projected by state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCM, from the EURO-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and by their forcing global climate models (GCM, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and study the associated physical mechanisms. We show that important discrepancies at large-scales exist between global and regional projections. The RCMs project at the end of the 21st century over a large area of Europe a summer warming 1.5–2 K colder, and a much smaller decrease of precipitation of 5%, versus 20% in their driving GCMs. The RCMs generally simulate a much smaller increase in shortwave radiation at surface, which directly impacts surface temperature. In addition to differences in cloud cover changes, the absence of time-varying anthropogenic aerosols in most regional simulations plays a major role in the differences of solar radiation changes. We confirm this result with twin regional simulations with and without time-varying anthropogenic aerosols. Additionally, the RCMs simulate larger increases in evapotranspiration over the Mediterranean sea and larger increases/smaller decreases over land, which contribute to smaller changes in relative humidity, with likely impacts on clouds and precipitation changes. Several potential causes of these differences in evapotranspiration changes are discussed. Overall, this work suggests that the current EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble does not capture the upper part of the climate change uncertainty range, with important implications for impact studies and the adaptation policies that they inform.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2056,
   author = {Boé, Julien and Terray, Laurent and Moine, Marie-Pierre and Valcke, Sophie and Bellucci, Alessio and Drijfhout, Sybren and Haarsma, Rein and Lohmann, Katja and Putrasahan, Dian A. and Roberts, Chris and Roberts, Malcom and Scoccimarro, Enrico and Seddon, Jon and Senan, Retish and Wyser, Klaus},
   title = {Past long-term summer warming over western Europe in new generation climate models: role of large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {15},
   number = {8},
   pages = {084038},
   abstract = {Past studies have concluded that climate models of previous generations tended to underestimate the large warming trend that has been observed in summer over western Europe in the last few decades. The causes of this systematic error are still not clear. Here, we investigate this issue with a new generation of climate models and systematically explore the role of large-scale circulation in that context. As an ensemble, climate models in this study warm less over western Europe and warm more over eastern Europe than observed on the 1951–2014 period, but it is difficult to conclude this is directly due to systematic errors given the large potential impact of internal variability. These differences in temperature trends are explained to an important extent by an anti-correlation of sea level pressure trends over the North Atlantic / Europe domain between models and observations. The observed trend tends to warm (cool) western (eastern) Europe but the simulated trends generally have the opposite effect, both in new generation and past generation climate models. The differences between observed and simulated sea level pressure trends are likely the result of systematic model errors, which might also impact future climate projections. Neither a higher resolution nor the realistic representation of the evolution of sea surface temperature and sea ice leads to a better simulation of sea level pressure trends.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8a89},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Bradtke2010,
   author = {Bradtke, Katarzyna and Herman, Agnieszka and Urbanski, Jacek A},
   title = {Spatial and interannual variations of seasonal sea surface temperature patterns in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {52},
   number = {3},
   pages = {345-362},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Brandt2013,
   author = {Brandt, J. and Silver, J. D. and Christensen, J. H. and Andersen, M. S. and Bønløkke, J. H. and Sigsgaard, T. and Geels, C. and Gross, A. and Hansen, A. B. and Hansen, K. M. and Hedegaard, G. B. and Kaas, E. and Frohn, L. M.},
   title = {Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system},
   journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {15},
   pages = {7747-7764},
   note = {ACP},
   ISSN = {1680-7324},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7747-2013},
   url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/13/7747/2013/},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Breitburg2018,
   author = {Breitburg, Denise and Levin, Lisa A. and Oschlies, Andreas and Grégoire, Marilaure and Chavez, Francisco P. and Conley, Daniel J. and Garçon, Véronique and Gilbert, Denis and Gutiérrez, Dimitri and Isensee, Kirsten and Jacinto, Gil S. and Limburg, Karin E. and Montes, Ivonne and Naqvi, S. W. A. and Pitcher, Grant C. and Rabalais, Nancy N. and Roman, Michael R. and Rose, Kenneth A. and Seibel, Brad A. and Telszewski, Maciej and Yasuhara, Moriaki and Zhang, Jing},
   title = {Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters},
   journal = {Science},
   volume = {359},
   number = {6371},
   pages = {eaam7240},
   abstract = {As plastic waste pollutes the oceans and fish stocks decline, unseen below the surface another problem grows: deoxygenation. Breitburg et al. review the evidence for the downward trajectory of oxygen levels in increasing areas of the open ocean and coastal waters. Rising nutrient loads coupled with climate change—each resulting from human activities—are changing ocean biogeochemistry and increasing oxygen consumption. This results in destabilization of sediments and fundamental shifts in the availability of key nutrients. In the short term, some compensatory effects may result in improvements in local fisheries, such as in cases where stocks are squeezed between the surface and elevated oxygen minimum zones. In the longer term, these conditions are unsustainable and may result in ecosystem collapses, which ultimately will cause societal and economic harm.Science, this issue p. eaam7240BACKGROUNDOxygen concentrations in both the open ocean and coastal waters have been declining since at least the middle of the 20th century. This oxygen loss, or deoxygenation, is one of the most important changes occurring in an ocean increasingly modified by human activities that have raised temperatures, CO2 levels, and nutrient inputs and have altered the abundances and distributions of marine species. Oxygen is fundamental to biological and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Its decline can cause major changes in ocean productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycles. Analyses of direct measurements at sites around the world indicate that oxygen-minimum zones in the open ocean have expanded by several million square kilometers and that hundreds of coastal sites now have oxygen concentrations low enough to limit the distribution and abundance of animal populations and alter the cycling of important nutrients.ADVANCESIn the open ocean, global warming, which is primarily caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, is considered the primary cause of ongoing deoxygenation. Numerical models project further oxygen declines during the 21st century, even with ambitious emission reductions. Rising global temperatures decrease oxygen solubility in water, increase the rate of oxygen consumption via respiration, and are predicted to reduce the introduction of oxygen from the atmosphere and surface waters into the ocean interior by increasing stratification and weakening ocean overturning circulation.In estuaries and other coastal systems strongly influenced by their watershed, oxygen declines have been caused by increased loadings of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and organic matter, primarily from agriculture; sewage; and the combustion of fossil fuels. In many regions, further increases in nitrogen discharges to coastal waters are projected as human populations and agricultural production rise. Climate change exacerbates oxygen decline in coastal systems through similar mechanisms as those in the open ocean, as well as by increasing nutrient delivery from watersheds that will experience increased precipitation.Expansion of low-oxygen zones can increase production of N2O, a potent greenhouse gas; reduce eukaryote biodiversity; alter the structure of food webs; and negatively affect food security and livelihoods. Both acidification and increasing temperature are mechanistically linked with the process of deoxygenation and combine with low-oxygen conditions to affect biogeochemical, physiological, and ecological processes. However, an important paradox to consider in predicting large-scale effects of future deoxygenation is that high levels of productivity in nutrient-enriched coastal systems and upwelling areas associated with oxygen-minimum zones also support some of the world’s most prolific fisheries.OUTLOOKMajor advances have been made toward understanding patterns, drivers, and consequences of ocean deoxygenation, but there is a need to improve predictions at large spatial and temporal scales important to ecosystem services provided by the ocean. Improved numerical models of oceanographic processes that control oxygen epletion and the large-scale influence of altered biogeochemical cycles are needed to better predict the magnitude and spatial patterns of deoxygenation in the open ocean, as well as feedbacks to climate. Developing and verifying the next generation of these models will require increased in situ observations and improved mechanistic understanding on a variety of scales. Models useful for managing nutrient loads can simulate oxygen loss in coastal waters with some skill, but their ability to project future oxygen loss is often hampered by insufficient data and climate model projections on drivers at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Predicting deoxygenation-induced changes in ecosystem services and human welfare requires scaling effects that are measured on individual organisms to populations, food webs, and fisheries stocks; considering combined effects of deoxygenation and other ocean stressors; and placing an increased research emphasis on developing nations. Reducing the impacts of other stressors may provide some protection to species negatively affected by low-oxygen conditions. Ultimately, though, limiting deoxygenation and its negative effects will necessitate a substantial global decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as reductions in nutrient discharges to coastal waters.Low and declining oxygen levels in the open ocean and coastal waters affect processes ranging from biogeochemistry to food security.The global map indicates coastal sites where anthropogenic nutrients have exacerbated or caused O2 declines to <2 mg liter−1 (<63 μmol liter−1) (red dots), as well as ocean oxygen-minimum zones at 300 m of depth (blue shaded regions). [Map created from data provided by R. Diaz, updated by members of the GO2NE network, and downloaded from the World Ocean Atlas 2009].Oxygen is fundamental to life. Not only is it essential for the survival of individual animals, but it regulates global cycles of major nutrients and carbon. The oxygen content of the open ocean and coastal waters has been declining for at least the past half-century, largely because of human activities that have increased global temperatures and nutrients discharged to coastal waters. These changes have accelerated consumption of oxygen by microbial respiration, reduced solubility of oxygen in water, and reduced the rate of oxygen resupply from the atmosphere to the ocean interior, with a wide range of biological and ecological consequences. Further research is needed to understand and predict long-term, global- and regional-scale oxygen changes and their effects on marine and estuarine fisheries and ecosystems.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aam7240},
   url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/359/6371/eaam7240.full.pdf},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Broman2006,
   author = {Broman, Barry and Hammarklint, Thomas and Rannat, Kalev and Soomere, Tarmo and Valdmann, Ain},
   title = {Trends and extremes of wave fields in the north-eastern part of the Baltic Proper},
   journal = {Oceanologia},
   volume = {48},
   number = {S},
   pages = {165-184},
   ISSN = {0078-3234},
   year = {2006},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@techreport{Brown1997,
   author = {Brown, J. and Ferrians Jr, O. J. and Heginbottom, J. A. and Melnikov, E. S.},
   title = {Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground-ice conditions},
   institution = {U.S. Geological Survey},
   number = {45},
   type = {Report},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3133/cp45},
   url = {http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cp45},
   year = {1997},
   type = {Report}
}

@article{Brugger2015,
   author = {Brugger, Keith A. and Pankratz, Latysha},
   title = {Changes in the geometry and volume of rabots glaciär, sweden, 2003–2011: recent accelerated volume loss linked to more negative summer balances},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   volume = {97},
   number = {2},
   pages = {265-278},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12062},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geoa.12062},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Brunner2020,
   author = {Brunner, L. and Pendergrass, A. G. and Lehner, F. and Merrifield, A. L. and Lorenz, R. and Knutti, R.},
   title = {Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {11},
   number = {4},
   pages = {995-1012},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/995/2020/},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Brutemark2015,
   author = {Brutemark, Andreas and Engström-Öst, Jonna and Vehmaa, Anu and Gorokhova, Elena},
   title = {Growth, toxicity and oxidative stress of a cultured cyanobacterium (Dolichospermum sp.) under different CO2/pH and temperature conditions},
   journal = {Phycological Research},
   volume = {63},
   number = {1},
   pages = {56-63},
   abstract = {Summary Cyanobacteria blooms are a worldwide nuisance in fresh, brackish and marine waters. Changing environmental conditions due to upwelling, changed mixing conditions or climate change are likely to influence cyanobacteria growth and toxicity. In this study, the response of the toxic cyanobacterium Dolichospermum sp. to lowered pH (−0.4 units by adding CO2) and elevated temperature (+4°C) in an experimental set-up was examined. Growth rate, microcystin concentration and oxidative stress were measured. The growth rate and intracellular toxin concentration increased significantly as a response to temperature. When Dolichospermum was exposed to the combination of elevated temperature and high CO2/low pH, lipid peroxidation increased and antioxidant levels decreased. Microcystin concentrations were significantly correlated with growth rates. Our results show, although oxidative stress increases when exposed to a combination of high CO2/low pH and high temperature, that growth and toxicity increase at high temperature, suggesting that the cyanobacterium in general seems to be fairly tolerant to changes in pH and temperature. Further progress in identifying biological responses and predicting climate change consequences in estuaries experiencing cyanobacteria blooms requires a better understanding of the interplay between stressors such as pH and temperature.},
   ISSN = {1322-0829},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/pre.12075},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pre.12075},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Burchard2018,
   author = {Burchard, Hans and Bolding, Karsten and Feistel, Rainer and Gräwe, Ulf and Klingbeil, Knut and MacCready, Parker and Mohrholz, Volker and Umlauf, Lars and van der Lee, Eefke M.},
   title = {The Knudsen theorem and the Total Exchange Flow analysis framework applied to the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Progress in Oceanography},
   volume = {165},
   pages = {268-286},
   abstract = {The Knudsen theorem for estuarine exchange flow, based on mass conservation of water and salt, and its generalization with resolution in salinity coordinates, the Total Exchange Flow (TEF) analysis framework, are reviewed here. The former had been developed, and applied to quantify exchange flow between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, more than a century ago. In this paper, the underlying short research paper published in 1900 by Martin Knudsen, originally written in German, is translated into English. Reaching far beyond the Knudsen relation in particular, the extensive scientific achievements of Martin Knudsen on the salinity of seawater are reviewed. Using the Knudsen theorem and the TEF analysis framework, validated multi-decadal (years 1949–2013) model simulations are analyzed in terms of exchange flow through straits of the Western Baltic Sea. When comparing the model results to the original findings of Martin Knudsen, it is impressive to see how relevant his analysis of ratios of averaged inflowing and outflowing water masses still is today, given that they were based on just a few salinity observations. The model-based long-term Knudsen and TEF analyses of exchange flow in the Western Baltic Sea reproduces the Major Baltic Inflows (MBIs) that have occurred since the 1950s. For the complex inflow years 2002/2003, with two baroclinic summer inflows and one barotropic winter inflow in between, the strong underestimation of the exchange flow by Eulerian analysis as compared to TEF analysis is demonstrated.},
   keywords = {Estuarine circulation
Knudsen theorem
Total Exchange Flow
Baltic Sea},
   ISSN = {0079-6611},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2018.04.004},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661117303774},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Burson2016,
   author = {Burson, Amanda and Stomp, Maayke and Akil, Larissa and Brussaard, Corina P D and Huisman, Jef},
   title = {Unbalanced reduction of nutrient loads has created an offshore gradient from phosphorus to nitrogen limitation in the North Sea},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {61},
   number = {3},
   pages = {869-888},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10257},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Busuioc2001,
   author = {Busuioc, Aristita and Chen, Deliang and Hellström, Cecilia},
   title = {Temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in Sweden and its link with the large-scale atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {53},
   number = {3},
   pages = {348-367},
   ISSN = {null},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v53i3.12193},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v53i3.12193},
   year = {2001},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1868,
   author = {Butenschön, Momme and Clark, James and Aldridge, John N and Allen, Julian Icarus and Artioli, Yuri and Blackford, Jeremy and Bruggeman, Jorn and Cazenave, Pierre and Ciavatta, Stefano and Kay, Susan},
   title = {ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels},
   journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
   volume = {9},
   number = {4},
   pages = {1293-1339},
   ISSN = {1991-959X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1293-2016},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Byrne2018,
   author = {Byrne, Michael P. and O’Gorman, Paul A.},
   title = {Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {115},
   number = {19},
   pages = {4863},
   abstract = {Changes in surface temperature and humidity over land are important for climate-change impacts on humans and ecosystems. Here, we show how trends in land humidity and temperature in recent decades are linked to ocean warming. While changes in temperature and humidity have been different over land and ocean, these changes have combined to give equal changes in the moist static energy of the air over land and ocean, consistent with expectations from atmospheric dynamics. We show how this dynamical constraint, and an additional constraint based on moisture transport, may be used to predict land climate changes given the ocean warming. Land surfaces are complex to understand and model, yet our results show a remarkably simple behavior of the climate system that emerges at large scales.In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land–ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1722312115},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/115/19/4863.abstract},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3194,
   author = {Böhling, Paula and Hudd, Richard and Lehtonen, Hannu and Karås, Peter and Neuman, Erik and Thoresson, Gunnar},
   title = {Variations in Year-Class Strength of Different Perch (Perca fluviatilis) Populations in the Baltic Sea with Special Reference to Temperature and Pollution},
   journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {48},
   number = {7},
   pages = {1181-1187},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1139/f91-142},
   url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f91-142 %X Variations in the year-class strength of perch (Perca fluviatilis) were analyzed among 23 populations in Baltic coastal areas distributed between 57 and 66°N using the age distribution in catches. In spite of large differences in abiotic and biotic factors, the variations in year-class strength were similar in 14 of these areas. The similarities could be attributed to large-scale weather variations influencing water temperature. Year-class strength was shown to be correlated with an index based on temperature and day length during the whole first year of life. In two of the nine deviating populations, perch nursery areas are situated in small nearshore freshwaters, where fluctuations in the water level may be more important for recruitment than temperature variations. The other deviating areas were exposed to environmental disturbances, i.e. acidification, oxygen deficits, pulp mill effluents, and thermal discharge, which obviously affected recruitment in a decisive way.},
   year = {1991},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1950,
   author = {Böning, Claus W. and Behrens, Erik and Biastoch, Arne and Getzlaff, Klaus and Bamber, Jonathan L.},
   title = {Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean},
   journal = {Nature Geoscience},
   volume = {9},
   pages = {523},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2740},
   url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2740#supplementary-information},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2023,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Frauen, Claudia and Neumann, Thomas and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation controls the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on North European climate},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {15},
   number = {10},
   pages = {104025},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba925},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN1894,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Frauen, Claudia and Neumann, Thomas and Schimanke, Semjon and Meier, H. E. Markus},
   title = {Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Baltic Sea Variability},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {45},
   number = {18},
   pages = {9880-9888},
   abstract = {Abstract The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a natural mode of variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. The AMO can be used to describe the complex interaction of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system of the North Atlantic. By analyzing a preindustrial period of 850 years with a regional climate model, we show that the AMO influences the Baltic Sea. AMO-related changes of the atmospheric circulation affect precipitation over the Baltic Sea region, which leads to altered river runoff influencing the salinity of the Baltic Sea. A wavelet coherence analysis reveals a persistent coherence between AMO and salinity for the whole period of 850 years. This suggests that the Baltic Sea is under the constant influence of the AMO. Our results provide strong evidence for long-term changes in the Baltic Sea as a result of changing AMO phases.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078943},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL078943},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN3455,
   author = {Börgel, Florian and Meier, H. E. Markus and Gröger, Matthias and Rhein, Monika and Dutheil, Cyril and Kaiser, Jan Moritz},
   title = {Atlantic multidecadal variability and the implications for North European precipitation},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   volume = {17},
   number = {4},
   pages = {044040},
   abstract = {The North Atlantic exhibits temperature variations on multidecadal time scales, summarized as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The AMV plays an essential role for regional climate and is a key driver of the low-frequency variability in Northern Europe. This study analyzed the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) control runs. The results showed that the physical mechanisms underlying decadal or longer time scales differ among CMIP6 models, which allowed them to be sorted into two clusters. For the first cluster, a significant coherence between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the AMV was found. Further, it showed a strong negative NAO response and decreasing precipitation over Northern Europe. In contrast, the second cluster showed no significant coherence between NAO and AMV. This non-coherent cluster developed a low-pressure anomaly in the subpolar gyre and showed increasing precipitation over Europe. Differences in the northward extension of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) between the two clusters were identified and linked to the different atmospheric responses. Our findings have important implications for European climate, since predictions of an increase or decrease in precipitation over Northern Europe will be model-dependent.},
   ISSN = {1748-9326},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1},
   url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5ca1},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@book{RN2059,
   author = {Bülow, Katharina and Dietrich, Christian and Elizalde, Alberto and Gröger, Matthias and Heinrich, Hartmut and Hüttl-Kabos, Sabine and Klein, Birgit and Mayer, Berhard and Meier, H. E. Markus and Mikolajewicz, Uwe},
   title = {Comparison of three regional coupled ocean atmosphere models for the North Sea under today‘s and future climate conditions (KLIWAS Schriftenreihe; KLIWAS-27/2014)},
   publisher = {Koblenz, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 265pp, URL: https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/36453/ (last access: 06.01.2022)},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Book}
}

@article{RN2893,
   author = {Caballero-Alfonso, Angela M. and Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J.},
   title = {Biogeochemical and environmental drivers of coastal hypoxia},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {141},
   pages = {190-199},
   abstract = {Recent reports have demonstrated that hypoxia is widespread in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. Here we evaluate the long-term trends of dissolved oxygen in bottom waters and of the drivers of coastal hypoxia. Eleven of the 33 sites evaluated had increasing trends of bottom water dissolved oxygen, but only the Stockholm Archipelago presents a consistent positive increasing trend in time. The vast majority of sites continue to worsen, especially along the Danish and Finnish coasts, in spite of remediation efforts to reduce nutrients. Surface temperatures were relatively comparable across the entire coastal Baltic Sea, whereas bottom water temperatures varied more strongly among sites, most likely due to differences in mixing (or stratification) and water exchange with the open Baltic Sea. Nutrient concentrations varied by factors 2–3 with highest levels at sites with restricted water exchange and higher land based nutrient loading. None of the sites were permanently stratified during the summer seasonal window although most of the sites were stratified more than half of the time. The frequency of hypoxia was also quite variable with sites in Gulf of Bothnia almost never experiencing hypoxia to enclosed sites with more than 50% chance of hypoxia. There are many factors governing hypoxia and the complexity of interacting processes in the coastal zone makes it difficult to identify specific causes. Our results demonstrate that managing nutrients can create positive feedbacks for oxygen recovery to occur. In the absence of nutrient reductions, the recovery from hypoxia in coastal marine ecosystems is unlikely.},
   keywords = {Hypoxia
Coastal zone
Baltic Sea
Nutrients},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2014.04.008},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796314000852},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Cai2021,
   author = {Cai, Qiongqiong and Beletsky, Dmitry and Wang, Jia and Lei, Ruibo},
   title = {Interannual and Decadal Variability of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Associated with Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns during 1850–2017},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {34},
   number = {24},
   pages = {9931-9955},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0330.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/24/JCLI-D-20-0330.1.xml},
   year = {2021},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Caillat2019,
   author = {Caillat, Marjolaine and Cordes, Line and Thompson, Paul and Matthiopoulos, Jason and Smout, Sophie},
   title = {Use of state-space modelling to identify ecological covariates associated with trends in pinniped demography},
   journal = {Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems},
   volume = {29},
   number = {S1},
   pages = {101-118},
   abstract = {Abstract Identifying and understanding ecological drivers that influence wildlife populations is challenging but critical for conservation. This typically requires integrating long-term data on both the population and potential drivers within statistical models that are suitable for analysing these complex relationships. State-space models offer one method for integrating such data. Once implemented within a Bayesian framework, these analyses can control for multifactorial influences on populations, allowing one to extract otherwise undetectable correlations between the environment and the underlying, inferred demography. In the Moray Firth, Scotland, harbour seals have been counted annually for 30 years (1988–2018). A Bayesian state-space model was used to explore whether patterns in vital rates were correlated to changes in prey abundance, inter-specific competition (grey seal abundance), environmental variables [the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea-surface temperature], or level of biotoxins (saxitoxin and domoic acid) in the Moray Firth waters. The credible interval of the posterior distributions of three of these covariate coefficients (sandeel proxy, NAO and grey seal abundance) suggested that there was a relationship between those covariates and vital rates. Both the sandeel proxy and NAO showed a positive correlation with fecundity, whereas grey seal abundance had a negative impact on pup survival. This work demonstrates how an integrated state-space modelling approach can bring together diverse data sets and point to important interactions with prey, and with other predators in the system. This suggests that the wider-scale management of UK harbour seal populations with their contrasting temporal trends needs to account for variation in the marine ecosystem at appropriate spatial scales, in line with current policy concerning spatial planning in the marine environment.},
   ISSN = {1052-7613},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3130},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aqc.3130},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Candolin2020,
   author = {Candolin, Ulrika and Voigt, Heinz-Rudolf},
   title = {Population growth correlates with increased fecundity in three-spined stickleback populations in a human-disturbed environment},
   journal = {Aquatic Sciences},
   volume = {82},
   number = {2},
   pages = {21},
   abstract = {Human activity is altering the dynamics of populations through effects on fecundity, mortality and migration. An increased abundance of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea has been attributed to a human-caused decline of top predators. However, recent research indicates that a top-down effect cannot fully explain the population growth, but the contribution of a bottom-up effect has not been investigated. Yet, anthropogenic eutrophication has increased algae biomass at the spawning sites of the stickleback and, thus, the abundance of benthic prey. We investigated if increased fecundity could have contributed to the population growth of the stickleback by analysing a two decade time series of stickleback abundance, fecundity, and body size at three spawning sites. The results show an increase in the proportion of gravid females in the populations, which correlates with the population growth. In particular, the proportion of gravid females late in the spawning season has increased, which indicates enhanced food intake at the sites during the spawning season. Thus, a bottom-up effect could have contributed to the growth of the populations by increasing the number of egg clutches females produce. These results stress the importance of considering both bottom-up and top-down processes when investigating the mechanisms behind human impact on population dynamics.},
   ISSN = {1420-9055},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-020-0695-3},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-020-0695-3},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Cardell2020,
   author = {Cardell, Maria F. and Amengual, Arnau and Romero, Romualdo and Ramis, Climent},
   title = {Future extremes of temperature and precipitation in Europe derived from a combination of dynamical and statistical approaches},
   journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
   volume = {40},
   number = {11},
   pages = {4800-4827},
   note = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   abstract = {Abstract Most of the nature-related economic costs and human losses in many regions of Europe are due to extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, persistent droughts, heavy precipitation and intense cyclonic wind-storms. Extreme precipitation events are projected by climatic models to become more intense over the continent while droughts might last longer by the end of the century. In dry regions as Southern Europe, soils are predicted to dry out as temperatures and evapotranspiration rise and rain-bearing atmospheric circulations become less frequent. Prospects on the future of climate indices linked to extreme phenomena are herein derived by using observed and model projected daily meteorological data. Specifically, E-OBS high resolution gridded datasets of observed precipitation and surface minimum and maximum temperatures have been used as the regional observed baseline. For projections, the same meteorological variables have been obtained from a set of regional climate models integrated in the European EURO-CORDEX project, considering the RCP8.5 future emissions scenario. A quantile?quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional scenarios to reduce biases in modelled extreme regimes. Results suggest that warm days will substantially increase across Europe, consistently with a decrease of cold nights. An increase in heat wave amplitude is expected across the continent, with South Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean as the most affected regions. In contrast, Northern Europe will undergo the largest decrease in cold spell magnitude. An overall rise in the frequency and volume of heavy precipitations is projected in all seasons, even if the number of dry days is also expected to increase, except in the Baltic countries. Regarding abnormally long dry periods (extreme droughts), we find that the occurrence of episodes would reduce over Europe as consequence of projected increases in length.},
   keywords = {climate change in Europe
climate indices
extreme weather events
quantile–quantile adjustment
regional climate models},
   ISSN = {0899-8418},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{RN2061,
   author = {Carlén, Ida and Thomas, Len and Carlström, Julia and Amundin, Mats and Teilmann, Jonas and Tregenza, Nick and Tougaard, Jakob and Koblitz, Jens C. and Sveegaard, Signe and Wennerberg, Daniel and Loisa, Olli and Dähne, Michael and Brundiers, Katharina and Kosecka, Monika and Kyhn, Line Anker and Ljungqvist, Cinthia Tiberi and Pawliczka, Iwona and Koza, Radomil and Arciszewski, Bartlomiej and Galatius, Anders and Jabbusch, Martin and Laaksonlaita, Jussi and Niemi, Jussi and Lyytinen, Sami and Gallus, Anja and Benke, Harald and Blankett, Penina and Skóra, Krzysztof E. and Acevedo-Gutiérrez, Alejandro},
   title = {Basin-scale distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Sea provides basis for effective conservation actions},
   journal = {Biological Conservation},
   volume = {226},
   pages = {42-53},
   abstract = {Knowledge on spatial and seasonal distribution of species is crucial when designing protected areas and implementing management actions. The Baltic Proper harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) population is critically endangered, and its distribution is virtually unknown. Here, we used passive acoustic monitoring and species distribution models to describe the spatial and seasonal distribution of harbour porpoises in the Baltic Proper. Porpoise click detectors were deployed over a systematic grid of 297 stations in eight countries from April 2011 through July 2013. Generalized additive models were used to describe the monthly probability of detecting porpoise clicks as a function of spatially-referenced covariates and time. During the reproductive season, two main areas of high probability of porpoise detection were identified. One of those areas, situated on and around the offshore banks in the Baltic Proper, is clearly separated from the known distribution range of the Belt Sea population during breeding season, suggesting this is an important breeding ground for the Baltic Proper population. We commend the designation of this area as a marine protected area and recommend Baltic Sea countries to also protect areas in the southern Baltic Sea and the Hanö Bight where additional important harbour porpoise habitats were identified. Further conservation measures should be carried out based on analyses of overlap between harbour porpoise distribution and potentially harmful anthropogenic activities. Our study shows that large-scale systematic monitoring using novel techniques can give important insights on the distribution of low-density populations, and that international cooperation is pivotal when studying transnationally migratory species.},
   keywords = {Spatial distribution
Passive acoustic monitoring
Population structure
Harbour porpoise
Marine protected areas
Biodiversity conservation},
   ISSN = {0006-3207},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.06.031},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320717307929},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2014,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Andersen, Jesper H and Gustafsson, Bo G and Conley, Daniel J},
   title = {Deoxygenation of the Baltic Sea during the last century},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
   volume = {111},
   pages = {5628-5633},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323156111},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2018,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Chierici, Melissa and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Gustafsson, Erik},
   title = {Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Estuarine and Coastal Carbonate Systems},
   journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
   volume = {32},
   number = {3},
   pages = {497-513},
   abstract = {Abstract Coastal pH and total alkalinity are regulated by a diverse range of local processes superimposed on global trends of warming and ocean acidification, yet few studies have investigated the relative importance of different processes for coastal acidification. We describe long-term (1972–2016) and seasonal trends in the carbonate system of three Danish coastal systems demonstrating that hydrological modification, changes in nutrient inputs from land, and presence/absence of calcifiers can drastically alter carbonate chemistry. Total alkalinity was mainly governed by conservative mixing of freshwater (0.73–5.17 mmol kg−1) with outer boundary concentrations (~2–2.4 mmol kg−1), modulated seasonally and spatially (~0.1–0.2 mmol kg−1) by calcifiers. Nitrate assimilation by primary production, denitrification, and sulfate reduction increased total alkalinity by almost 0.6 mmol kg−1 in the most eutrophic system during a period without calcifiers. Trends in pH ranged from −0.0088 year−1 to 0.021 year−1, the more extreme of these mainly driven by salinity changes in a sluice-controlled lagoon. Temperature increased 0.05°C yr−1 across all three systems, which directly accounted for a pH decrease of 0.0008 year−1. Accounting for mixing, salinity, and temperature effects on dissociation and solubility constants, the resulting pH decline (0.0040 year−1) was about twice the ocean trend, emphasizing the effect of nutrient management on primary production and coastal acidification. Coastal pCO2 increased ~4 times more rapidly than ocean rates, enhancing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Indeed, coastal systems undergo more drastic changes than the ocean and coastal acidification trends are substantially enhanced from nutrient reductions to address coastal eutrophication.},
   ISSN = {0886-6236},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gb005781},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GB005781},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2014-2,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J and Bonsdorff, Erik and Gustafsson, Bo G and Hietanen, Susanna and Janas, Urzsula and Jilbert, Tom and Maximov, Alexey and Norkko, Alf and Norkko, Joanna and Reed, Daniel C and Slomp, Caroline P and Timmermann, Karen and Voss, Maren},
   title = {Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical cycles, benthic fauna, and management},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {43},
   number = {1},
   pages = {26-36},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-013-0474-7},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2019,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J.},
   title = {Baltic Sea Hypoxia Takes Many Shapes and Sizes},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography Bulletin},
   volume = {28},
   number = {4},
   pages = {125-129},
   abstract = {Abstract The Baltic Sea is naturally prone to hypoxia, but the frequency and extent have increased multifold over the last century. Hypoxia manifests itself as perennial in the open central part, seasonal at the entrance area, and episodic at many coastal sites, and the expression of hypoxia is largely driven by differences in bottom water residence times and stratification patterns. Enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere are the main drivers of expanding hypoxia in the Baltic Sea although deoxygenation has also been exacerbated by increasing temperature over the past 3–4 decades. Hypoxia severely influences ecosystem functions such as fish production through reduced trophic efficiency and harmful cyanobacteria blooms sustained by phosphorus release from sediments. Nutrient inputs from land have created the largest man-made hypoxic area in the world and the only viable long-term solution to mitigation is to continue efforts to reduce nutrient loading.},
   ISSN = {1539-607X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/lob.10350},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/lob.10350},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2020,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Conley, Daniel J. and Almroth-Rosell, Elin and Asmala, Eero and Bonsdorff, Erik and Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi and Gustafsson, Bo G. and Gustafsson, Camilla and Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina and Janas, Urzsula and Norkko, Alf and Slomp, Caroline and Villnäs, Anna and Voss, Maren and Zilius, Mindaugas},
   title = {Factors regulating the coastal nutrient filter in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Ambio},
   volume = {49},
   number = {6},
   pages = {1194-1210},
   abstract = {The coastal zone of the Baltic Sea is diverse with strong regional differences in the physico-chemical setting. This diversity is also reflected in the importance of different biogeochemical processes altering nutrient and organic matter fluxes on the passage from land to sea. This review investigates the most important processes for removal of nutrients and organic matter, and the factors that regulate the efficiency of the coastal filter. Nitrogen removal through denitrification is high in lagoons receiving large inputs of nitrate and organic matter. Phosphorus burial is high in archipelagos with substantial sedimentation, but the stability of different burial forms varies across the Baltic Sea. Organic matter processes are tightly linked to the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Moreover, these processes are strongly modulated depending on composition of vegetation and fauna. Managing coastal ecosystems to improve the effectiveness of the coastal filter can reduce eutrophication in the open Baltic Sea.},
   ISSN = {1654-7209},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01282-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01282-y},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2019-2,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Duarte, Carlos M.},
   title = {Drivers of pH Variability in Coastal Ecosystems},
   journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
   volume = {53},
   number = {8},
   pages = {4020-4029},
   ISSN = {0013-936X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03655},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03655},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Carstensen2007,
   author = {Carstensen, Jacob and Henriksen, Peter and Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina},
   title = {Summer algal blooms in shallow estuaries: Definition, mechanisms, and link to eutrophication},
   journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
   volume = {52},
   number = {1},
   pages = {370-384},
   abstract = {We propose a definition for identification of blooms and use this definition to investigate the underlying mechanisms of summer blooms and their link to nutrient enrichment. Blooms were defined as chlorophyll a observations deviating significantly from a normal seasonal cycle; the frequency and magnitude of these deviating observations characterized bloom frequency and intensity. The definition was applied to a large monitoring data set from five estuaries in Denmark with at least biweekly sampling. Four mechanisms with links to nutrient enrichment were identified as sources of summer blooms: (1) advection from biomass-rich inner estuary, (2) resuspension of nutrients and algae from sediments, (3) nutrient releases from sediments during hypoxic conditions, and (4) decoupling of benthic grazers. Summer blooms were mostly dominated by diatoms, and in 33% of the bloom samples the dominating species was also dominant prior to the bloom. Only four species (Cerataulina pelagica, Chaetoceros socialis/radians, Prorocentrum micans, and Prorocentrum minimum) typically (>50% of blooms) increased their biomass proportion during bloom initiations. Bloom frequency and intensity decreased from 1989 to 2004, corresponding to decreases in nutrient inputs and concentrations, but only bloom frequency could be directly linked to the actual total nitrogen concentrations, whereas bloom intensities depended on site-specific features, particularly a threshold response for stations exposed to hypoxia. Bloom frequency has increased over longer timescales in response to nutrient enrichment.},
   ISSN = {0024-3590},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0370},
   url = {https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2007.52.1.0370},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casanueva2014,
   author = {Casanueva, A. and Rodríguez-Puebla, C. and Frías, M. D. and González-Reviriego, N.},
   title = {Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns},
   journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
   volume = {18},
   number = {2},
   pages = {709-725},
   note = {HESS},
   ISSN = {1607-7938},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-709-2014},
   url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/18/709/2014/},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casini2010,
   author = {Casini, M. and Bartolino, V. and Molinero, J. C. and Kornilovs, G.},
   title = {Linking fisheries, trophic interactions and climate: threshold dynamics drive herring Clupea harengus growth in the central Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
   volume = {413},
   pages = {241-252},
   note = {10.3354/meps08592},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT: How multiple stressors influence fish stock dynamics is a crucial question in ecology in general and in fisheries science in particular. Using time-series covering a 30 yr period, we show that the body growth of the central Baltic Sea herring <i>Clupea harengus</i>, <i></i>both in terms of condition and weight-at-age (WAA), has shifted from being mainly driven by hydro-climatic forces to an inter-specific density-dependent control. The shift in the mechanisms of regulation of herring growth is triggered by the abundance of sprat, the main food competitor for herring. Abundances of sprat above the threshold of ~18 × 10<sup>10</sup> ind. decouple herring growth from hydro-climatic factors (i.e. salinity), and become the main driver of herring growth variations. At high sprat densities, herring growth is considerably lower than at low sprat levels, regardless of the salinity conditions, indicative of hysteresis in the response of herring growth to salinity changes. The threshold dynamic accurately explains the changes in herring growth during the past 3 decades and in turn contributes to elucidate the parallel drastic drop in herring spawning stock biomass. Studying the interplay between different stressors can provide fundamental information for the management of exploited resources. The management of the central Baltic herring stock should be adaptive and take into consideration the dual response of herring growth to hydro-climatic forces and food-web structure for a sound ecosystem approach to fisheries.},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v413/p241-252/},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casini2009,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Hjelm, Joakim and Molinero, Juan-Carlos and Lövgren, Johan and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Bartolino, Valerio and Belgrano, Andrea and Kornilovs, Georgs},
   title = {Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems},
   journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
   volume = {106},
   number = {1},
   pages = {197},
   abstract = {Fisheries can have a large impact on marine ecosystems, because the effects of removing large predatory fish may cascade down the food web. The implications of these cascading processes on system functioning and resilience remain a source of intense scientific debate. By using field data covering a 30-year period, we show for the Baltic Sea that the underlying mechanisms of trophic cascades produced a shift in ecosystem functioning after the collapse of the top predator cod. We identified an ecological threshold, corresponding to a planktivore abundance of ≈17 × 1010 individuals, that separates 2 ecosystem configurations in which zooplankton dynamics are driven by either hydroclimatic forces or predation pressure. Abundances of the planktivore sprat above the threshold decouple zooplankton dynamics from hydrological circumstances. The current strong regulation by sprat of the feeding resources for larval cod may hinder cod recovery and the return of the ecosystem to a prior state. This calls for the inclusion of a food web perspective in management decisions.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806649105},
   url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/1/197.abstract},
   year = {2009},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casini2011,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Kornilovs, Georgs and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Möllmann, Christian and Grygiel, Wlodzimierz and Jonsson, Patrik and Raid, Tiit and Flinkman, Juha and Feldman, Valeriy},
   title = {Spatial and temporal density dependence regulates the condition of central Baltic Sea clupeids: compelling evidence using an extensive international acoustic survey},
   journal = {Population Ecology},
   volume = {53},
   number = {4},
   pages = {511-523},
   abstract = {Abstract For the first time an international acoustic survey dataset covering three decades was used to investigate the factors shaping the spatial and temporal patterns in the condition of sprat and herring in the Baltic Proper. Generalized additive models showed that the spatial and temporal fluctuations in sprat density have been the main drivers of the spatio-temporal changes of both sprat and herring condition, evidencing intra- and inter-specific density dependence mediated by the size and distribution of the sprat population. Salinity was also an important predictor of herring condition, whereas temperature explained only a minor part of sprat model deviance. Herring density was an additional albeit weak significant predictor for herring condition, evidencing also intra-specific density dependence within the herring population. For both species, condition was high and similar in all areas of the Baltic Proper until the early 1990s, coincident with low sprat densities. Afterwards, a drop in condition occurred and a clear south–north pattern emerged. The drop in condition after the early 1990s was stronger in the northern areas, where sprat population increased the most. We suggest that the increase in sprat density in the northern areas, and the consequent spatial differentiation in clupeid condition, have been triggered by the almost total disappearance of the predator cod from the northern Baltic Proper. This study provides a step forward in understanding clupeid condition in the Baltic Sea, presenting evidence that density-dependent mechanisms also operate at the spatial scale within stock units. This stresses the importance of spatio-temporal considerations in the management of exploited fish.},
   ISSN = {1438-3896},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-011-0269-2},
   url = {https://esj-journals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1007/s10144-011-0269-2},
   year = {2011},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casini2016,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Käll, Filip and Hansson, Martin and Plikshs, Maris and Baranova, Tatjana and Karlsson, Olle and Lundström, Karl and Neuenfeldt, Stefan and Gårdmark, Anna and Hjelm, Joakim},
   title = {Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator},
   journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
   volume = {3},
   number = {10},
   pages = {160416},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160416},
   url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rsos.160416 %X Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Casini2008,
   author = {Casini, Michele and Lövgren, Johan and Hjelm, Joakim and Cardinale, Massimiliano and Molinero, Juan-Carlos and Kornilovs, Georgs},
   title = {Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem},
   journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
   volume = {275},
   number = {1644},
   pages = {1793-1801},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.1752},
   year = {2008},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Cattiaux2013,
   author = {Cattiaux, J. and Cassou, C.},
   title = {Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime Northern Annular Mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {40},
   number = {14},
   pages = {3682-3687},
   abstract = {A crucial challenge in climate studies is to determine how warming trends due to anthropogenic forcing may affect the natural modes of atmospheric variability. In the northern extratropics, the leading pattern of atmospheric dynamics is known as the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), often computed as the first empirical orthogonal function of sea level pressure (SLP) or geopotential height at 500 mbar (Z500). Here we compare wintertime NAM changes estimated from previous (third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)) versus ongoing (fifth phase (CMIP5)) generations of multimodel projections for the 21st century, under similar emission scenarios (A2 scenario versus 8.5 W.m−2Representative Concentration Pathway). CMIP3 projections exhibited a positive NAM trend, albeit this response differed between SLP and Z500, whereas CMIP5 projections rather reveal a negative trend, especially for Z500. We show that the CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies are mostly explained in early winter by the local consequence of faster Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP5 and in late winter by the remote influence through teleconnection of stronger warming in the western tropical Pacific. The attribution of CMIP3/CMIP5 discrepancies to the differences in emission scenarios is assessed by investigating NAM responses in common 1% CO2idealized experiments.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50643},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50643},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Cattiaux2013-2,
   author = {Cattiaux, Julien and Douville, Hervé and Peings, Yannick},
   title = {European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {41},
   number = {11},
   pages = {2889-2907},
   abstract = {European temperatures and their projected changes under the 8.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario are evaluated in an ensemble of 33 global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Respective contributions of large-scale dynamics and local processes to both biases and changes in temperatures, and to the inter-model spread, are then investigated from a recently proposed methodology based on weather regimes. On average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe. They overestimate summer temperatures in Central Europe, in association with a greater diurnal range than observed. The projected temperature increase is stronger in summer than in winter, with the highest summer warming occurring over Mediterranean regions. Links between biases and sensitivities are evidenced in winter, suggesting a potential influence of snow cover biases on the projected surface warming. A brief analysis of daily temperature extremes suggests that the intra-seasonal variability is projected to decrease (slightly increase) in winter (summer). Then, in order to understand model discrepancies in both present-day and future climates, we disentangle effects of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional physical processes. In particular, in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North-Atlantic jet stream than observed and, in contrast with CMIP3 results, the majority of them suggests an increased frequency of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation under future warming. While large-scale circulation only has a minor contribution to ensemble-mean biases or changes, which are primarily dominated by non-dynamical processes, it substantially affects the inter-model spread. Finally, other sources of uncertainties, including the North-Atlantic warming and local radiative feedbacks related to snow cover and clouds, are briefly discussed.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@misc{RN1681,
   author = {CDO},
   title = {Climate Data Operators. Available at: http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/cdo},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Statute}
}

@article{Ceppi2015,
   author = {Ceppi, Paulo and Hartmann, Dennis L.},
   title = {Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review},
   journal = {Current Climate Change Reports},
   volume = {1},
   number = {2},
   pages = {94-102},
   abstract = {We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.},
   ISSN = {2198-6061},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chadburn2017,
   author = {Chadburn, S. E. and Burke, E. J. and Cox, P. M. and Friedlingstein, P. and Hugelius, G. and Westermann, S.},
   title = {An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming},
   journal = {Nature Climate Change},
   volume = {7},
   number = {5},
   pages = {340-344},
   abstract = {Permafrost loss can be projected by considering its distribution against warming air temperatures. Using observations to constrain loss estimates, this study investigates loss under different levels of warming.},
   ISSN = {1758-6798},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chafik2017,
   author = {Chafik, Léon and Nilsen, Jan Even Øie and Dangendorf, Sönke},
   title = {Impact of North Atlantic Teleconnection Patterns on Northern European Sea Level},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Science and Engineering},
   volume = {5},
   number = {3},
   pages = {43},
   ISSN = {2077-1312},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030043},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/43},
   year = {2017},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chang2012,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Guo, Yanjuan and Xia, Xiaoming},
   title = {CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming},
   journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
   volume = {117},
   number = {D23118},
   abstract = {CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of midlatitude storm track changes has been examined. Storm track activity is quantified by temporal variance of meridional wind and sea level pressure (psl), as well as cyclone track statistics. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), CMIP5 models project clear poleward migration, upward expansion, and intensification of the storm track. For the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the models also project some poleward shift and upward expansion of the storm track in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, but mainly weakening of the storm track toward its equatorward flank in the troposphere. Consistent with these, CMIP5 models project significant increase in the frequency of extreme cyclones during the SH cool season, but significant decrease in such events in the NH. Comparisons with CMIP3 projections indicate high degrees of consistency for SH projections, but significant differences are found in the NH. Overall, CMIP5 models project larger decrease in storm track activity in the NH troposphere, especially over North America in winter, where psl variance as well as cyclone frequency and amplitude are all projected to decrease significantly. In terms of climatology, similar to CMIP3, most CMIP5 models simulate storm tracks that are too weak and display equatorward biases in their latitude. These biases have also been related to future projections. In the NH, the strength of a model's climatological storm track is negatively correlated with its projected amplitude change under global warming, while in the SH, models with large equatorward biases in storm track latitude tend to project larger poleward shifts.},
   ISSN = {0148-0227},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018578},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2012JD018578},
   year = {2012},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chang2016,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Ma, Chen-Geng and Zheng, Cheng and Yau, Albert M. W.},
   title = {Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature},
   journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
   volume = {43},
   number = {5},
   pages = {2200-2208},
   abstract = {Abstract Extratropical cyclones cause much of the high-impact weather over the midlatitudes. With increasing greenhouse gases, enhanced high-latitude warming will lead to weaker cyclone activity. Here we show that between 1979 and 2014, the number of strong cyclones in Northern Hemisphere in summer has decreased at a rate of 4% per decade, with even larger decrease found near northeastern North America. Climate models project a decrease in summer cyclone activity, but the observed decreasing rate is near the fastest projected. Decrease in summer cyclone activity will lead to decrease in cloud cover, giving rise to higher maximum temperature, potentially enhancing the increase in maximum temperature by 0.5 K or more over some regions. We also show that climate models may have biases in simulating the positive relationship between cyclone activity and cloud cover, potentially underestimating the impacts of cyclone decrease on accentuating the future increase in maximum temperature.},
   ISSN = {0094-8276},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068172},
   url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016GL068172},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chang2016-2,
   author = {Chang, Edmund K. M. and Yau, Albert M. W.},
   title = {Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {47},
   number = {5},
   pages = {1435-1454},
   abstract = {In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chen2020,
   author = {Chen, Chung-Chi and Gong, Gwo-Ching and Chou, Wen-Chen and Shiah, Fuh-Kwo},
   title = {Hypoxia in autumn of the East China Sea},
   journal = {Marine Pollution Bulletin},
   volume = {152},
   pages = {110875},
   abstract = {Hypoxia (O2 ≤ 2 mg L−1) can severely threaten the survival of marine life and alter the biogeochemical cycles of coastal ecosystems. Its impacts are dependent on its duration. In the present study, hypoxia was observed in autumn at the end of October 2011. It may be one of the latest recorded annual hypoxic events in the East China Sea (ECS). In the hypoxic regions, a large amount of nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon were observed to regenerate. Also, acidification (low pH) was observed. On the other hand, hypoxic dissipation may be due to the destratification caused by the upwelling of the hypoxic regions in the ECS. These results suggest that hypoxia may occur for longer periods of time than expected and, accordingly, the effects of hypoxia on the ECS ecosystems should be reconsidered and further evaluated.},
   keywords = {Acidification
Changjiang River estuary
East China Sea
Fugacity of CO
Hypoxia
Nutrient regeneration},
   ISSN = {0025-326X},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.110875},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X19310318},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chen1999,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Hellström, Cecilia},
   title = {The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temperature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations},
   journal = {Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography},
   volume = {51},
   number = {4},
   pages = {505-516},
   abstract = {ABSTRACT A statistical analysis of the seasonal and interannual variations in the regional temperature anomalies of Sweden during 1861–1994 is performed. The study uses homogenized monthly temperatures averaged over 6 regions to minimize the non climatic and local-scale climatic effects. It is found that the temperature variability shows a clear regional and seasonal dependency. The topography, the influence of the sea and the synoptic climatology may have determined the dependency. The anomaly is related to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) expressed by an index (NAOI) and the extent to which the temperature anomaly can be explained by the NAO is investigated. The results show that the NAO has an important effect on the regional Swedish temperature on the monthly and interannual scales. The relationship between the temperature and NAOI over the period 1985–1994 are strong, implying that the NAOI may be a suitable candidate for a statistical downscaling model of the regional temperature. However, correlation analysis over different 31-year periods shows that the strength of the association varies with time and region. The further north the weaker the association. On the other hand, the temporal variations of the moving correlations for the 6 regions are similar. Part of the temporal variations may be explained by the averaged strength of NAO during different 31-year periods. This is especially evident for southern Sweden. At last, the coherency spectrums between the temperature anomalies and the NAO index is determined, which enables an examination of the association over the frequency domain. The result supports the idea that the NAO has an important effect on the Swedish temperature, though the strength of the association varied with time. These results have implications for statistical downscaling.},
   ISSN = {0280-6495},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.t01-4-00004.x},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.t01-4-00004.x},
   year = {1999},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chen2004,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Li, Xiaodong},
   title = {Scale-dependent relationship between maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea and atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
   volume = {41},
   number = {3-4},
   pages = {275-283},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.01.012},
   year = {2004},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chen2005,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Omstedt, Anders},
   title = {Climate-induced variability of sea level in Stockholm: influence of air temperature and atmospheric circulation},
   journal = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences},
   volume = {22},
   number = {5},
   pages = {655-664},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02918709},
   year = {2005},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Chen2020-2,
   author = {Chen, Deliang and Zhang, Peng and Seftigen, Kristina and Ou, Tinghai and Giese, Markus and Barthel, Roland},
   title = {Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective},
   journal = {Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography},
   pages = {1-29},
   ISSN = {0435-3676},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2020.1841410},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2020.1841410},
   year = {2020},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2007,
   author = {Christensen, J. H. and Carter, T. R. and Rummukainen, M. and Amanatidis, G.},
   title = {Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   pages = {1-6},
   DOI = {10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6},
   url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9211-6},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2007-2,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Christensen, Ole Bøssing},
   title = {A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   volume = {81},
   number = {1},
   pages = {7-30},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7},
   year = {2007},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2010,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Kjellström, Erik and Giorgi, Filippo and Lenderink, Geert and Rummukainen, Markku},
   title = {Weight assignment in regional climate models},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   volume = {44},
   number = {2-3},
   pages = {179-194},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00916},
   year = {2010},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2019,
   author = {Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg and Larsen, Morten A. D. and Christensen, Ole B. and Drews, Martin and Stendel, Martin},
   title = {Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling},
   journal = {Climate Dynamics},
   volume = {53},
   number = {7},
   pages = {4857-4869},
   abstract = {How climate change will unfold in the years to come is a central topic in today’s environmental debate, in particular at the regional level. While projections using large ensembles of global climate models consistently indicate a future decrease in summer precipitation over southern Europe and an increase over northern Europe, individual models substantially modulate these distinct signals of change in precipitation. So far model improvements and higher resolution from regional downscaling have not been seen as able to resolve these disagreements. In this paper we assess whether 2 decades of investments in large ensembles of downscaling experiments with regional climate model simulations for Europe have contributed to a more robust model assessment of the future climate at a range of geographical scales. We study climate change projections of European seasonal temperature and precipitation using an ensemble-suite comprised by all readily available pan-European regional model projections for the twenty-first-century, representing increasing model resolution from ~ 50 to ~ 12 km grid distance, as well as lateral boundary and sea surface temperature conditions from a variety of global model simulations. Employing a simple scaling with global mean temperature change we identify emerging robust signals of future seasonal temperature and precipitation changes also found to resemble current observed trends, where these are judged to be statistically significant.},
   ISSN = {1432-0894},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z},
   year = {2019},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2022,
   author = {Christensen, O. B. and Kjellström, E. and Dieterich, C. and Gröger, M. and Meier, H. E. M.},
   title = {Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {13},
   number = {1},
   pages = {133-157},
   note = {ESD},
   ISSN = {2190-4987},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022},
   url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/133/2022/},
   year = {2022},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen1998,
   author = {Christensen, Ole B. and Christensen, Jens H. and Machenhauer, Bennert and Botzet, Michael},
   title = {Very High-Resolution Regional Climate Simulations over Scandinavia—Present Climate},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {11},
   number = {12},
   pages = {3204-3229},
   abstract = {Abstract The hydrological cycle on a regional scale is poorly represented with a present-day coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM). With a dynamical downscaling technique, in which a regional higher-resolution climate model (RCM) is nested into the GCM, this starts to become feasible. Here the authors go one step further with a double nesting approach, applying an RCM at 19-km horizontal resolution nested into an RCM at 57-km resolution over an area covering the Scandinavian Peninsula. A 9-yr-long time-slice simulation is performed with the driving boundary conditions taken from a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM experiment, the recently completed ECHAM4/OPYC3 control simulation performed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. With increasing resolution, local effects playing a significant role in the hydrological budget become better and better resolved and are more realistically simulated. It is found in particular that in mountainous regions the high-resolution simulation shows improvements in the simulation of hydrologically relevant fields such as runoff and snow cover. Also, the distribution of precipitation on different intensity classes is most realistically simulated in the high-resolution simulation. It does, however, inherit certain large-scale systematic errors from the driving GCM. In many cases these errors increase with increasing resolution. Model verification of near-surface temperature and precipitation is made using a new gridded climatology based on a high-density station network for the Scandinavian countries compiled for the present study. The simulated runoff is compared with observed data from Sweden extracted from a Swedish climatological atlas. These runoff data indicate that the precipitation analyses are underestimating the true precipitation by as much as 96% on an annual basis in the most mountainous region of Sweden. This fact as well as estimates of the underestimation in other areas of Scandinavia make the high-resolution RCM simulations appear more realistic.},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3204:Vhrrcs>2.0.Co;2},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281998%29011%3C3204%3AVHRRCS%3E2.0.CO%3B2},
   year = {1998},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Christensen2018,
   author = {Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Kjellström, Erik},
   title = {Projections for Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, and Snow in the Baltic Sea Region until 2100},
   journal = {Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science},
   volume = {Oxford University Press},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.695},
   url = {https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-695},
   year = {2018},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Christensen2015,
   author = {Christensen, Ole Bøssing and Kjellström, Erik and Zorita, Eduardo},
   title = {Projected Change—Atmosphere},
   booktitle = {Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin},
   editor = {The, Bacc I. I. Author Team},
   publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
   address = {Cham},
   pages = {217-233},
   abstract = {This chapter builds on the comprehensive summary of climate change scenarios in the first BACC assessment published in 2008. This chapter first addresses the dynamical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) results to the regional scale, focussing on results from 13 regional climate modelRegional climate model(RCM) simulations in the ENSEMBLES project as this European-scale ensemble simulation is also relevant for the Baltic Sea region and many studies on temperature, precipitation, wind speed and snow amounts have been performed. This chapter then reviews statistical downscalingDownscalingstudies that use large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) to estimate possible future change in several smaller scale fields (predictands), with the greatest emphasis given to hydrological variables (such as precipitation and run-off). For the Baltic Sea basin, the findings of the statistical downscaling studies are generally in line with studies employing dynamical downscaling.},
   ISBN = {978-3-319-16006-1},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_11},
   year = {2015},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Christiansen2002,
   author = {Christiansen, C. and Edelvang, K. and Emeis, K. and Graf, G. and Jähmlich, S. and Kozuch, J. and Laima, M. and Leipe, T. and Löffler, A. and Lund-Hansen, L. C. and Miltner, A. and Pazdro, K. and Pempkowiak, J. and Shimmield, G. and Shimmield, T. and Smith, J. and Voss, M. and Witt, G.},
   title = {Material transport from the nearshore to the basinal environment in the southern Baltic Sea: I. Processes and mass estimates},
   journal = {Journal of Marine Systems},
   volume = {35},
   number = {3},
   pages = {133-150},
   abstract = {Processes involved in erosion, transport and deposition of cohesive materials are studied in a transect from shallow (16 m) to deep (47 m) water of the SW Baltic Sea. The wave- and current-induced energy input to the seabed in shallow water is high with strong variability and suspended matter concentrations may double within a few hours. Primary settling fluxes (from sedimentation traps) are less than 10 g m−2 day−1, whereas resuspension fluxes (evaluated from sedimentation flux gradients) are 15–20 times higher and the residence time for suspended matter in the water column is 1–2 days. Settling velocities of aggregates are on average six times higher than for individual particles resulting in an enhanced downward transport of organic matter. Wave-induced resuspension (four to six times per month) takes place with higher shear stresses on the bottom than current-induced resuspension (three to five times per month). The short residence time in the water column and the frequent resuspension events provide a fast operating benthic–pelagic coupling. Due to the high-energy input, the shallow water areas are nondepositional on time scales longer than 1–2 weeks. The sediment is sand partly covered by a thin fluff layer during low-energy periods. The presence of the fluff layer keeps the resuspension threshold very low (<0.023 N m−2) throughout the year. Evaluated from 3-D sediment transport modeling, transport from shallow to deep water is episodic. The net main directions are towards the Arkona Basin (5.5×105 t per year) and the Bornholm Basin (3.7×105 t per year). Energy input to the bottom in deep water is low and takes place much less frequently. Wave-induced resuspension occurs on average once per month. Residence time of particles (based on radioactive isotopes) in the water column is half a year and the sediment accumulation rate is 2.2 mm year−1 in the Arkona Basin.},
   keywords = {Sediment dynamics
Aggregates
Sedimentation
Resuspension
Material transport
Models
Baltic Sea
Pomeranian Bight},
   ISSN = {0924-7963},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(02)00126-4},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924796302001264},
   year = {2002},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@inbook{Church2013,
   author = {Church, J.A. and Clark, P.U. and Cazenave, A. and Gregory, J.M. and Jevrejeva, S. and Levermann, A. and Merrifield, M.A. and Milne, G.A. and Nerem, R.S. and Nunn, P.D. and Payne, A.J. and Pfeffer, W.T. and Stammer, D. and Unnikrishnan, A.S},
   title = {Sea Level Change},
   booktitle = {Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
   editor = {Stocker, T.F. and Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M. and Allen, S.K. and Boschung, J. and Nauels, A. and Xia, Y. and Bex, V. and Midgley, P.M.},
   publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
   address = {Cambridge, UK, New York, USA},
   pages = {1137-1216},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
   url = {http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/4605},
   year = {2013},
   type = {Book Section}
}

@article{Chust2014,
   author = {Chust, Guillem and Allen, J. Icarus and Bopp, Laurent and Schrum, Corinna and Holt, Jason and Tsiaras, Kostas and Zavatarelli, Marco and Chifflet, Marina and Cannaby, Heather and Dadou, Isabelle and Daewel, Ute and Wakelin, Sarah L. and Machu, Eric and Pushpadas, Dhanya and Butenschon, Momme and Artioli, Yuri and Petihakis, George and Smith, Chris and Garçon, Veronique and Goubanova, Katerina and Le Vu, Briac and Fach, Bettina A. and Salihoglu, Baris and Clementi, Emanuela and Irigoien, Xabier},
   title = {Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean},
   journal = {Global Change Biology},
   volume = {20},
   number = {7},
   pages = {2124-2139},
   abstract = {Abstract Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.},
   ISSN = {1354-1013},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12562},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.12562},
   year = {2014},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Ciasto2016,
   author = {Ciasto, Laura M. and Li, Camille and Wettstein, Justin J. and Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar},
   title = {North Atlantic Storm-Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences},
   journal = {Journal of Climate},
   volume = {29},
   number = {19},
   pages = {6973-6991},
   ISSN = {0894-8755},
   DOI = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0860.1},
   url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/29/19/jcli-d-15-0860.1.xml},
   year = {2016},
   type = {Journal Article}
}

@article{Claremar2017,
   author = {Claremar, B. and Haglund, K. and Rutgersson, A.},
   title = {Ship emissions and the use of current air cleaning technology: contributions to air pollution and acidification in the Baltic Sea},
   journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
   volume = {8},
   number = {4},